This document discusses a method for identifying potential new locations for expanding successful development projects based on key factors. It outlines how the weights of evidence method works by identifying important factors for a project, determining their positive or negative influence, and calculating a probability value for potential new sites. The document applies this method to the Quesungual seed project in Nicaragua to identify other suitable areas. It concludes with recommendations to incorporate this extrapolation domain analysis approach into future projects to guide scaling out efforts.
1. Adapting to Change: How to Accelerate Impact J. Rubiano1 S. Cook2, B. Douthwaite3, M.Rajasekaran2, V.Soto3 1 King’sCollege, University of London, jerubiano@gmail.com 2 Basin Focal Project, CPWF 3 International Center for Tropical Agriculture, CIAT, Colombia. 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008
2. This analysis shows where local projects have regional or global potential to change the lives of millions. 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008
3. 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008 Extrapolation domains for the PN15 Quesungual Project
4. EDA 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008
8. Guide Investors (SDC, WB…etc…)2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008
9. Outline Overall concept How the method works? A graphical example An example from a CPWF project Where to next? Assessment Recomendations 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008
10. What’s a right bed for my seeds? 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008
11. Pilot sites of 11 CPWF projects (nursery) 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008
12. The extrapolation problem Where else can we go with these projects? 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008
13. 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008 A knowledge common sense game 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008
14. It is black 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008
15. It is hairy 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008
16. Has more than 2 legs 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008
17. It is not a pet 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008
19. Back to the CPWF How to realise about the potential of the CPWF projects? How to wisely use information? End of phase 1, 40+ CPWF funded projects Knowledge Improving our ability to adapt 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008
25. The inference is a …2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008
26. The extrapolation problem: Where else can we go with these projects? Knowledge Tell us factors are important Data About the original and target location About the distribution of important factors A method To link these two components 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008
34. From spatial analysis we also know how important these factors are for the project2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008
35. How to weight the contribution of each factor? 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008
36. 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008 Pantropical world Important factors Research sites
37. 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008 1. Weights of Evidence Area=173 Pilot sites=20 Prior Prob=0.115 Factor Area = 22 Pilot sites in Factor Area = 8
38. 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008 2. Weights of Evidence Area=173 Pilot sites=20 Prior Prob=0.115 Factor Area = 22 Pilot sites in Factor Area = 8 Conditional Probabilities A. Factor and sites B. Factor but no sites C. No Factor but sites D. No Factor no sites W- = ln C/D W+ = ln A/B
39. 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008 4. Weights of Evidence Conditional Probabilities A. Pattern and sites B. Pattern but no sites C. No pattern but sites D. No pattern no sites W- = ln C/D W+ = ln A/B Odds Post = ln (Odds Prior + ∑(W+ +W-) Post Prob = Odds Post /(1+ Odds Post ) Area=173 Pilot sites=20 Prior Prob=0.115 Evidential Pattern Area = 22 Pilot sites in Pattern = 8 Test of Conditional Independence of the evidential layers Posterior Probability=0.14 P(SjF1F2) =[P(F2jS) P(F1jS) P(S) ] / [P(F2) P(F1)]
40. How would I know a particular place is a good site for a project? Summarizing up to here…. We use the contribution of each factor (positive and negative weights) Associate this information with the basic knowledge of the site (prior probability of pilot sites) Calculate a value per each potential new site (posterior probability) 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008
41. How to read results? Check for total conditional independence and uncertainty Organised results in maps for dialogue with project team members Iterate after adjustments Review results to the light of complementary information 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008
58. 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008 Summary of Feedback
59. Assessment Mixed response about the approach (you love it or hate it) Data availability is a key constraint but solvable Local knowledge will improve its validity EDA, in general, is a useful starting point for the promotion of innovative techniques to new locations A recognition that suitable sites are not the unique guarantee for successful scaling out of interventions Does not work for all type of projects 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008
60.
61. More dialog at the beginning of projects to ensure the validation of variables to be used
70. There must be other ways of doing this, if better, use them, but please let me know I am always open to learn 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008
71. Key References Bonham-Carter, GF, Agterberg, FP., Wright, DF. Weights of evidence modeling: a new approach to mapping mineral potential. In: Agternerg, FP, Bonham-Carter, GF, editors. Statistical Applications in the Earth Sciences. Canada: Geological Survey of Canada; 1989, 171-183. Bonham-Carter, GF. Geographic Information Systems for geoscientists: modelling with GIS, First ed. Ottawa, Canada: Pergamon; 1994 Bonham-Carter, GF. Geographic information systems for geoscientist: Modelling with GIS. In: Merriam DF, editors. Computer Methods in the Geosciences. New York: Pergamon/Elsevier; 2002, 302-334. 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008