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1. A Brewing Ground War in Europe

2. Ukraine East
August 17th, Rebellion Suppressed
Light Yellow= Areas
Putin Calls ‘New
Russia’
Blue = Cities/Towns
taken back from
separatists
(Red = Cities/Towns
Controlled by
Separatists (Russia)
Orange = In Conflict
Pink = Area Where
one is likely to run
into Separatists on
major roads
Good Job
Ukrainian Army
fighting and
containing
insurgents
being armed
with modern
weaponry by
PUTIN.
But wait,
stability is not
what Putin
wants…..

3. Ukraine South-East
August 27th, Post Putin Invasion
Light Yellow= Areas
Putin Calls ‘New
Russia’
Blue = Cities/Towns
taken back from
separatists (or, more
likely now, Russian
Soldiers)
Red = Cities/Towns
Controlled by
Separatists (Russia)
Orange = In Conflict
Pink = Area Where
one is likely to run
into Separatists on
major roads
THE RUSSIAN
ARMY CLEARLY
INVADED
ALONG THE
BOARDER OF
UKRAINE. ALL
THE WAY TO
THE SEA. THIS IS
NOT A CIVIL
WAR, IT IS AN
INVASION.

4. We’ve Seen this before, Unfortunately

5. Putin Has a Trump
Card, Energy
• Europe, including all EU
members plus Turkey,
Norway, Switzerland, and
the non-EU Balkan states,
consumed 18.7 trillion
cubic feet (Tcf) of natural
gas in 2013.
• Russia supplied 30% (5.7
Tcf) of this volume, with a
significant amount flowing
through Ukraine.
• EIA estimates that 16%
(3.0 Tcf) of the total natural
gas consumed in Europe
passed through Ukraine's
pipeline network, based
on data reported by
Gazprom and Eastern

6. All the pipelines and fields are in East
Ukraine or Crimea…

7. Putin’s Crazy Enough to stop the flow
of Energy to Ukraine, if not the EU
• Natural gas flows through Ukraine vary by season,
ranging from almost 12 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of natural
gas per day in the winter to only 6 Bcf per day in the
summer. In the past, as much as 80% of Russian natural
gas exports to Europe transited Ukraine. This number
has fallen to 50%-60% since the Nord Stream pipeline, a
direct link between Russia and Germany under the Baltic
Sea, came online in 2011
• But times have been
good, recently: An
unusually mild winter in
2013 meant reduced
natural gas flows through
Ukraine and contributed
to higher levels of natural
gas storage in Europe
(natural gas storage
levels were 46% full as of
March 13, compared to
23% full in the United
States).

8. The Relationship between Russian Oil
Production and Ukrainian Oil Infrastructure
REQUIRES cooperation, not war
• The 400,000 bbl/d southern leg of the Druzhba oil pipeline transports Russian
crude oil through Ukraine to supply most of the oil consumed by Slovakia,
Hungary, Czech Republic, and Bosnia. In 2013, about 300,000 bbl/d of
throughput transited the pipeline. Russian crude oil and petroleum products also
transit Ukraine by rail for export out of Ukrainian ports. (source EIA)
• Port_of_Odessa#Oil_and_gas_terminal
– By far the most valuable place in the Ukraine right now
– Annual container volume: 523,881 TEUs
– Employees = ~3,500 (2007)
– 700,000 tonnes of liquefied natural gas [LNG] per year
(.7 MTPA)
– 800,000 tonnes of oil products per year (gasoline,
vacuum gas oil)
– 2,500,000 tonnes of diesel oil per year
– 6,200,000 tonnes of fuel oil per year

9. What Now?
The Port is safe, but Ukraine is not
~400 Miles From Boarder
Absolutely no civil unrest
yet

10. What Country Will Russia Invade Next?
Conflicts sparked by Putin
Since 1999
Ukraine East
(2014-?)
Georgia
(2008)
Crimea
(2014)
He’s blurred the lines
purposely to prevent a
“red line”.
But with the internet, we
NATO
NATO
NATO can just put our glasses on
NATO
NATO
NATO
NATO
NATO
NATO
NATO
Chechenya
(1999-2009)

11. Putin’s Crazy Rationale
From: Igor Markov, a Googler
• Putin is rational within his own objectives and worldview, which look very different from
the worldview of most other people with access to comprehensive information about
what is going on. He is willing to suffer temporary setbacks (such as weaker economy) if
he can achieve long-term strategic objectives, such as a viable Crimea as a part of
Russia and a weak, divided Ukraine that can never join NATO.
• Intimidation and threats are common techniques employed by Russia (there's a deep
tradition of such techniques among Russian organized crime). If you can force your victim
to yield without doing something terrible, you can claim that the victim did it voluntarily.
Otherwise, do what you threatened to do.
• Fear must be running high among the Russian leadership who know what is going
on. Thousands of dead Russian soldiers have been transported back to Russia (according
to fresh reports), and the Russian public is only starting to realize this. Some Russian
industries (tourism, car manufacturing) are collapsing. Due to sanctions, Russian
companies are cut from financing, and many will go bankrupt. Russian oil and gas
industry is cut from offshore-drilling technologies. Many military projects are stopped
or paused because they relied on key components from Ukraine - Russia has apparently
gave up on the plans to build aircraft carriers (corrections anyone?).
• A majority of Russian nuclear missiles were made in Ukraine. Ukraine used to service
them, but has now stopped doing that. If Russia has not broken service codes, the missiles
will gradually become unreliable.
• The super-aggressive posture is what you'd expect from someone who is in the corner
and is getting desperate.

12. Sanctions haven’t been totally worthless. Russia
is about to be in a world of inflation.
• So, when are we going to do a 2nd round?
1st Round Sanctions Take Effect for
EU, US & others

13. Unfortunately, Ukraine will suffer first.
As in, right now. Hopefully less in the end

14. So we’ve been pulling all the money
out of Russia Equity
• But it’s not really enough. $4 Billion / Month is
a start. Time to CrowdFund some real supplies
• Please donate - http://wings-phoenix.org.ua/en