The presentation focuses on the investment opportunities in commercial and industrial rooftop building in India. Sensitivity analysis has been carried out for 11 states to understand the impact on project economics in terms of PIRR, EIRR, and payback periods.
2. Rooftop Overview - Focus to Indian Scenario
Gensol Group
Jawaharlal
Nehru
National
Solar
Mission
Atal
Innovation
Mission
Make in
India
Smart
Cities
Mission
24X7
Power for
all
Ujjawal
DISCOM
Assurance
Yojana
Supportive GoI Missions & Initiatives for Rooftop PV Solar
India’s total installed solar capacity is estimated to have reached 21.65 GW as on June 2018. This includes 19.65 GW of utility
scale (90%) and 2 GW (Approx.) of rooftop solar capacity (10%).
Source – CER, 2018
Indian rooftop solar market growing at over 80% annually.
3. Industrial & Commercial are more attractive
relative to residential segments
Gensol Group
Assessment Parameters Industrial Commercial Residential
Attractiveness
Regulatory Support
Tariff Parity
Opportunity Potential in 2022
Realizable Opp. Size in 2022
Overall Attractiveness
TariffAttractiveness
Net tariff
differential
between the
existing variable
tariff for that sub-
segment and
potential solar
tariff in year 1 in
that state for a
15% IRR
OpportunityPotential
Rooftop solar
market
opportunity size
(MW)
Current
penetration (as a
% of potential)
PolicySupport
Specific elements
of state solar
policy that are
beneficial to a
developer:
- Subsidies &
incentives
- Strength of
intent
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
Lakshadweep
Arunachal Pradesh
Meghalaya
Nagaland
Tripura
Puducherry
Goa
Assam
Uttarakhand
Chhattisgarh
Kerala
Odisha
Haryana
Punjab
West Bengal
Karnataka
Gujarat
Uttar Pradesh
Year Wise NSM Rooftop Target for all States
2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22
4. Rooftop Attractiveness Evaluation -Methodology
Gensol Group
Gensol has carried out assessment from solar investor's and customer’s point of view to portray attractiveness of rooftop segment
for both industrial and commercial segments and to understand project economics.
1) State
Prioritization
2) Estimation of
Solar PV Plant
Capacity
3) Energy
Prediction For 1
MW Rooftop
(RT) Solar PV
System
4) Identification
Of Grid Tariff for
Industrial &
Commercial
Consumers
5) Financial
Analysis - LCOE,
EIRR, PIRR And
Payback
Periods.
Results
And
Sensitivity
Scenarios
The following methodology has been adopted for evaluation:
Financial
Pillars Of
Solar Project
5. Methodology & Assumptions
Gensol Group
All States in
India - 29
Well Defined
Solar Policy -
21
Net Metering
Policy - 20
Solar Radiation>5
kWh/m2) -15
State Prioritization Criteria1
Priority 1
Commercial - MH, TN, RJ, KA & DL
Industrial - MH, TN, RJ & DL; KA and RJ
Priority 2
Commercial - UP, PB, TS & OR
Industrial - KA, UP, PB, & TS
PV Capacity Estimation2
Solar PV Capacity has been estimated to be 1 MW to understand the project
economics on common base.
6. Methodology & Assumptions
Gensol Group
Solar Energy Estimation3
Grid Tariff Comparison4
Financial Assumptions5
Energy generation from 1 MW RT solar PV plant estimated for
following project configuration:
• Module - 325 kW Polycrystalline (Tier 1)
• Inverter- 50 kW String Inverters (Tier 1)
• Concrete Roofs (RCC ) with Pitch - 7 meters
• Tilt angle – 17 to 26 degrees on based on optimisation
• Azimuth- 0 deg. (True South )
Grid tariff selection methodology
• HT Tariff slab
• HT consumers (industrial & commercial) -11/33kV
• Weighted average calculated for State wise latest tariff orders
• Electricity duty included in grid tariffs
• Fuel charges not considered.
Investor profile
Commercial
/Industrial
Expected commissioning date 1-Jan-2019
DC Capacity of system (kWp) 1200
AC Capacity of system(kW) 1000
Exceedance probability P75
O&M expense for project during 1st year
(Rs/Wp)
0.40
Annual increase in O&M Cost 4.0%
Project Price per Watt peak (Wp) 40.0
Debt 70%
Equity 30%
Subsidy benefit excluded
Rate of interest of domestic bank loan 13%
Repayment period of domestic loan 10 years
Annual escalation in grid tariff 0.0%
Life of plant 25 years
Book depreciation rate (SLM) 5.28%
Normal depreciation rate for tax
calculations
15%
Corporate Tax 25-30%
Minimum Alternate Tax 20%
Analysis & Results6
LCOE
(Rs/kWh)
Equity IRR (%)
Project IRR
(%)
Payback
period (Years)
9. LCOE IRR Trends - Industrial Vs Commercial
Gensol Group
Industrial Buildings ScenarioCommercial Buildings Scenario
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
Grid Tariff Vs Solar LCOE for Rooftop SPV
Grid Tariff
(Rs./kWh)
LCOE
(Rs./kWh)
Payback period
(yrs)
PIRR
(%)
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
Grid Tariff Vs Solar LCOE for Rooftop SPV
Grid Tariff
(Rs./kWh)
LCOE
(Rs./kWh)
Payback period
(yrs)
PIRR
(%)
10. Sensitivity Analysis – State-Wise
Gensol Group
Sensitivity analysis has been carried out for all the 11 states to understand the impact on a particular dependent variable like
project cost, tariff, O&M cost and interest rate under a given set of assumptions.
Sensitivity
Analysis
Project
Cost
±10%
Tariff
±5%
O&M Cost
±20%
Interest
Rate
±2%
4
3
2
1 New Delhi, Delhi
Pune, Maharashtra
Jaipur, Rajasthan
Bangalore, Karnataka
9
7
8 Hyderabad, Telangana
Chandigarh, Punjab
Lucknow, Uttar Pradesh
5 Ahmedabad, Gujarat
10 Chennai, Tamil Nadu
11 Bhubaneshwar, Orissa
6 Bhopal, MP 12 Results & Ranking
Click on cities to check the sensitivities
22. Results and Recommendations
Gensol Group
Industrial
Ranking
New
Delhi
Jaipur Pune Bangalore Lucknow Hyderabad Chennai Bhopal Chandigarh Ahmedabad
Bhuvnesh
war
Commercia
l Ranking
Pune Jaipur Bangalore
New
Delhi
Lucknow Chennai Hyderabad Bhopal Chandigarh Ahmedabad
Bhuvnesh
war
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1110
•Higher solar radiation in the location results in the lower solar Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) which
makes the project technically feasible;
•Higher the delta between grid tariff and solar LCOE or cost of generation in Rs/kWh, better the savings.
Thus, higher the project IRR, equity IRR and lower will be the payback periods;
•Highly sensitive parameters are project cost & tariffs followed by interest rates;
•Least sensitive parameter is O&M cost; approx.. 0.10% of impact observed on the IRR on ±20%
variation;
•In almost all the states, higher PIRR is obtained as compared to domestic interest rate which makes
rooftop project financially viable;
•The impact of fiscal and financial incentives i.e., tax benefits, capital subsidy, depreciation benefits is
not substantial.
It has been analysed from the financial assessment and sensitivity that:
Gofor
Rooftop
Solar
GoGreen
Rankingonthebasisofhighest
PIRR,EIRRandpaybackperiod.
23. About Gensol
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Gensol Group
Gensol provides concept to commissioning solar advisory, execution and operations services for Solar Projects in India and abroad.
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Evangelist
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& Business Development
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Head of Engineering &
Operations
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Director
+91 9998025820
puneetjaggi@gensol.in
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President
+91 9850673664
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Head of Supply Chain & Group
CFO
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24. Gensol is one of the leading consultants and system integrators for Solar Power Plants. We boast of a portfolio of over 6000 MW of Solar Photovoltaic Plants. Gensol is also a channel
partner to Ministry of New & Renewable Energy and installs kW scale Solar Rooftop systems on a turnkey basis with more than 42 MW of cumulative installations across the country.
The information contained herein is of a general nature and is not intended to address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. Although we endeavor to provide
accurate and timely information, there can be no guarantee that such information is accurate as of the date it is received or that it will continue to be accurate in the future. No one
should act on such information without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of the particular situation.
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