This document discusses scenarios for how the COVID-19 pandemic could unfold and impact society. It outlines four potential scenarios: 1. "The Invisible Enemy Wins" - Efforts to restart the economy fail, treatments are not developed, the virus continues to spread widely, and civil unrest increases. 2. "Resilient America" - Society adapts to restrictions and an economic recovery begins, though infections and deaths remain high. 3. "Fractured America" - The economy enters a prolonged recession despite government intervention, but infections decrease. 4. "We Win" - Through innovation and coordinated response, the virus is defeated and the economy rebounds quickly with infections and deaths below estimates.

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uncertain about what the future holds
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Oil Supply is very high and Government Policy is very lenient
Oil Supply is very low and Government Policy is highly restrictive
Oil Supply is very low and Government Policy is very lenient

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10. The Invisible
Enemy Wins
Resilient
America
Fractured
America
We Win

11. The Invisible
Enemy Wins
Prolonged
Recession/
Depression
Total Infections and
Deaths Far Above
Estimates

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and the enemy is winning

13. ● Efforts to restart the economy in spring/summer 2020 are foiled
● Drug makers fail to bring to market effective treatments
● waves of
companies both big and small file for bankruptcy
● Equity markets lose faith in the ability of government
● Across the country, people and businesses bunker down in an increasingly apocalyptic mentality,
● civil order begins to break down marked by a surge in crime
● Reported suicides and domestic violence incidents have tripled from pre-crisis levels

14. ● The unemployed millions seethe with rage
● The only true Heroes in the crisis are the frontline public health workers
● Tech companies are viewed as partial Heroes, but not likable ones.
● Drug companies and the for-profit health care industry are vilified for a momentous failure
● The rest of the economy just feel like passive victims trying to eke it out.

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16. ● China:
● Healthcare:
● Technology:
● Social services:

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18. Resilient
America
V-shaped
Recovery
Total Infections and
Deaths Far Above
Estimates

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adapted to life under restrictions and are forging an
economic recovery regardless

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23. ● Supercharging innovation:
● Demand side stimulus:
● Technology:
● Healthcare:

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25. We Win
V-shaped
Recovery
Total Infections
and Deaths Below
Estimates

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we have met the Invisible Enemy and defeated it.

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30. ● Economic resilience:
● Healthcare:
● Technology:
● Reasserting global leadership:
● Climate:

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32. Fractured
America
Prolonged
Recession/
Depression
Total Infections
and Deaths Below
Estimates

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Government debt
has doubled, the Fed’s balance sheet has
quintupled, and none of that has made a
difference

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37. ● Attacking the other side:
● Re-writing History:
● Rally round the Flag:

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39. The Invisible
Enemy Wins
Resilient
America
Fractured
America
We Win

40. Toward a New Social Covenant for TechBig Change is Coming for Big Pharma

41. From Efficiency to ResilienceEmergence of a New Elite

42. Where Were the Robots?Don’t Call it a Net, Call it a Foundation

43. The Biggest Election Issue May be…the Election

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○ What’s robust?
○ What’s the scale of variation relevant to you?
○ What signposts should you pay most attention to?

45. Arik Ben-Zvi, CEO of Breakwater Strategy
Steven Weber, Professor at UC Berkeley, School of Information