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The	
  Eurozone	
  Crisis	
  Impact	
  on	
  Chinese	
  &	
  Indian	
  Economies	
                                                                                                                                                                           1	
  

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          	
  
	
  




                                                                         	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     	
  
                                                                                  The	
  Eurozone	
  Crisis	
  
                                                              Impact	
  on	
  Chinese	
  &	
  Indian	
  Economies	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               	
  
	
  




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           	
  
	
  
	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                             Author:	
  Ashish	
  Jude	
  Michael	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                               Participant	
  PGPEx2012	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                             (OUC	
  China	
  +IIM	
  Shillong	
  )	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
2	
                   The	
  Eurozone	
  Crisis	
  Impact	
  on	
  Chinese	
  &	
  Indian	
  Economies	
  
                                                                                                             	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
        	
  
        Table	
  of	
  Content	
  
        	
  
        Executive	
  Summary	
  
        	
  
        1.1Eurozone	
  Crisis:	
  Brief	
  Introduction	
  	
  
        1.2Eurozone	
  Crisis:	
  Major	
  Attributes	
  
        1.3Eurozone	
  Crisis:	
  Effect	
  on	
  European	
  Economy	
  
        1.4Eurozone	
  Crisis:	
  Effect	
  on	
  Global	
  Economy	
  
        	
  
        2.1	
  Chinese	
  Economy:	
  Brief	
  Introduction	
  
        2.2	
  Chinese	
  Economy:	
  Under	
  Eurozone	
  Crisis	
  
        2.3	
  Chinese	
  Economy:	
  Actions	
  Taken	
  
        2.4	
  Chinese	
  Economy:	
  Suggestions	
  
        	
  
        3.1	
  Indian	
  Economy:	
  Brief	
  Introduction	
  
        3.2	
  Indian	
  Economy:	
  Under	
  Eurozone	
  Crisis	
  
        3.3	
  Indian	
  Economy:	
  Actions	
  Taken	
  
        3.4	
  Indian	
  Economy:	
  Suggestions	
  
        	
  
        4.1	
  Conclusion:	
  
             	
  
        Exhibits:	
  1-­‐18	
  
        	
  
        Bibliography	
  
        	
  
        	
  
               	
  
               	
  
               	
  
               	
  
               	
  
               	
  
               	
  
               	
  
               	
  
               	
  
               	
  
               	
  
               	
  
               	
  
               	
  
               	
  
               	
  
               	
  
               	
  
               	
  
               	
  
The	
  Eurozone	
  Crisis	
  Impact	
  on	
  Chinese	
  &	
  Indian	
  Economies	
                                                                                                                                                                    3	
  

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          	
  
       	
  
Executive	
  Summary	
  
This	
  report	
  is	
  about	
  the	
  Eurozone	
  crisis	
  and	
  how	
  emerging	
  economies	
  such	
  as	
  
India	
  &	
  China	
  should	
  deal	
  with	
  it	
  and	
  also	
  what	
  they	
  should	
  learn	
  from	
  this	
  crisis.	
  
I	
  have	
  divided	
  this	
  report	
  basically	
  into	
  four	
  parts;	
  first	
  part	
  gives	
  the	
  history,	
  
detail	
  &	
  analysis	
  of	
  Eurozone	
  crisis.	
  Second	
  part	
  I	
  have	
  explained	
  briefly	
  about	
  
Chinese	
  economy,	
  how	
  Eurozone	
  crisis	
  has	
  affected	
  its	
  economy,	
  what	
  are	
  the	
  
action	
  taken	
  by	
  government	
  and	
  suggestions.	
  In	
  third	
  part	
  I	
  have	
  discussed	
  about	
  
Indian	
  economy	
  on	
  similar	
  lines	
  and	
  finally	
  I	
  have	
  concluded	
  in	
  part	
  four.	
  
             Eurozone	
  crisis	
  is	
  not	
  a	
  single	
  economic	
  recession,	
  which	
  we	
  have	
  faced;	
  
in	
  recent	
  past	
  but	
  it	
  is	
  actually	
  one	
  of	
  the	
  event	
  in	
  the	
  chain	
  of	
  events	
  of	
  what	
  
economist	
  commonly	
  say	
  “	
  Global	
  Financial	
  Crisis”.	
  The	
  table	
  below	
  shows	
  the	
  
events,	
  which	
  hit	
  the	
  global	
  economy	
  during	
  last	
  5	
  years.	
  	
  
       	
  
                 2007–2012	
  Global	
  Financial	
  crisis

              Major	
  Events	
  

                                         •                          2000s	
  energy	
  crisis	
  
                                         •                          2008–2012	
  global	
  recession	
  
                                         •                          Automotive	
  industry	
  crisis	
  of	
  2008–2010	
  
                                         •                          Dodd–Frank	
  Wall	
  Street	
  Reform	
  and	
  
                                                                    Consumer	
  Protection	
  Act	
  
                                         •                          European	
  sovereign-­‐debt	
  crisis	
  
                                         •                          Financial	
  Crisis	
  Inquiry	
  Commission	
  
                                         •                          Subprime	
  crisis	
  impact	
  timeline	
  
                                         •                          Subprime	
  mortgage	
  crisis	
  
                                         •                          United	
  States	
  housing	
  bubble	
  
                                         •                          United	
  States	
  housing	
  market	
  correction

                           	
  
	
  
1.1	
  Eurozone	
  Crisis:	
  Brief	
  Introduction	
  	
  
	
  
European	
  union	
  trace	
  back	
  its	
  roots	
  in	
  1951	
  with	
  the	
  “Treaty	
  of	
  Paris”	
  with	
  about	
  
6	
  members.	
  Now	
  is	
  a	
  economic	
  &political	
  union	
  of	
  27	
  countries	
  of	
  Europe.	
  It	
  
having	
  about	
  20%	
  of	
  global	
  GDP	
  as	
  per	
  PPP	
  (Purchasing	
  Power	
  Parity).	
  It	
  
introduced	
  a	
  common	
  currency	
  Euro	
  in	
  2002.The	
  17	
  countries	
  accepted	
  Euro	
  as	
  
their	
  currency	
  and	
  these	
  17	
  countries	
  formulate	
  the	
  “Eurozone”	
  .Soon	
  Euro	
  
became	
  second	
  most	
  traded	
  currency	
  of	
  the	
  world	
  just	
  behind	
  USD	
  (United	
  State	
  
Dollar).	
  	
  
Year	
  2010	
  saw	
  onset	
  of	
  European	
  Sovereign	
  Debt	
  Crisis	
  	
  which	
  is	
  commonly	
  
referred	
  as	
  Euro	
  Zone	
  Crisis.	
  There	
  are	
  four	
  major	
  causes	
  for	
  this	
  crisis.	
  	
  
First	
  the	
  rising	
  government	
  (public)	
  debts.	
  	
  The	
  stability	
  of	
  a	
  country	
  can	
  be	
  
determined	
  by	
  the	
  percentage	
  of	
  the	
  government	
  (public)	
  debt	
  	
  to	
  its	
  GDP.	
  
(Exhibit	
  1)	
  clearly	
  shows	
  that	
  the	
  relative	
  position	
  of	
  major	
  countries.	
  We	
  can	
  see	
  
that	
  Greece	
  is	
  already	
  is	
  in	
  a	
  very	
  bad	
  condition	
  as	
  its	
  public	
  debt	
  is	
  436	
  billion	
  $	
  
which	
  constitutes	
  to	
  143%	
  of	
  its	
  GDP,	
  next	
  to	
  follow	
  are	
  Italy,Ireland	
  ,Portugal	
  ,&	
  

	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
4	
            The	
  Eurozone	
  Crisis	
  Impact	
  on	
  Chinese	
  &	
  Indian	
  Economies	
  
                                                                                                                                                 	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
        Spain	
  with	
  figures	
  of	
  115%,	
  95%,93%	
  and	
  60%.	
  Though	
  Spain	
  appears	
  better	
  in	
  
        this	
  situation	
  but	
  in	
  next	
  cause	
  we	
  can	
  observe	
  the	
  problem	
  faced	
  by	
  Spain.	
  
        Second	
  cause	
  is	
  the	
  rise	
  in	
  trade	
  imbalance.	
  If	
  we	
  see	
  Exhibit	
  2	
  we	
  can	
  see	
  that	
  	
  
        In	
  terms	
  of	
  %	
  of	
  GDP	
  Portugal,	
  Iceland,	
  Greece,	
  Spain	
  and	
  Italy	
  are	
  having	
  figures	
  
        of	
  -­‐9.9%,	
  -­‐7.1%,	
  -­‐6.5%,	
  -­‐4.7%	
  and	
  -­‐3.3%	
  respectively.	
  Only	
  Germany	
  is	
  the	
  
        country	
  which	
  have	
  a	
  positive	
  trade	
  balance	
  of	
  6.7%	
  hence	
  is	
  one	
  of	
  the	
  strong	
  
        economy.	
  
        Third	
  cause	
  is	
  structure	
  of	
  Eurozone.	
  The	
  concept	
  of	
  Euro	
  has	
  structural	
  
        problems.	
  It	
  has	
  a	
  monitory	
  union	
  but	
  not	
  a	
  fiscal	
  union.	
  For	
  stability	
  of	
  a	
  
        currency	
  system	
  the	
  member	
  countries	
  should	
  follow	
  same	
  fiscal	
  path	
  but	
  they	
  
        have	
  no	
  common	
  treasury	
  to	
  enforce	
  them.	
  Each	
  country	
  is	
  free	
  to	
  follow	
  its	
  
        fiscal	
  policy.	
  It	
  happened	
  in	
  the	
  case	
  of	
  Greece,	
  it	
  was	
  hard	
  to	
  control	
  its	
  national	
  
        institutions.	
  Lack	
  of	
  quick	
  response,	
  if	
  any	
  decision	
  has	
  to	
  be	
  taken	
  by	
  Eurozone	
  
        all	
  17	
  member	
  countries	
  have	
  to	
  be	
  unanimous	
  and	
  this	
  takes	
  lot	
  of	
  time.	
  Lack	
  of	
  
        “Banking	
  Union”	
  common	
  for	
  Europe	
  to	
  avoid	
  “bank	
  runs”.	
  
        Fourth	
  cause	
  is	
  monitory	
  policy	
  inflexibility	
  a	
  member	
  country	
  cannot	
  print	
  the	
  
        money	
  to	
  pay	
  to	
  debit	
  holders	
  also	
  ECB	
  (European	
  Central	
  Bank)	
  has	
  inflation	
  
        control	
  mandate	
  not	
  unemployment	
  mandate	
  and	
  the	
  Loss	
  of	
  confidence	
  of	
  
        Investors	
  in	
  affected	
  countries	
  is	
  worsening	
  the	
  crisis.	
  
        	
  
        	
  
        1.2	
  Eurozone	
  Crisis:	
  Major	
  Attributes	
  
        	
  
        Earlier	
  I	
  have	
  already	
  discussed	
  the	
  major	
  causes	
  for	
  the	
  Eurozone	
  crisis	
  now	
  I	
  
        will	
  be	
  doing	
  a	
  sort	
  of	
  microscopic	
  analysis	
  of	
  the	
  attributes,	
  which	
  set	
  these	
  
        causes.	
  There	
  are	
  6	
  attributes,	
  which	
  have	
  played	
  an	
  important	
  role	
  in	
  setting	
  the	
  
        causes,	
  which	
  in	
  turn	
  created	
  the	
  Eurozone	
  Crisis.	
  
        The	
  developed	
  economies	
  have	
  accumulated	
  sizeable	
  deficit	
  while	
  the	
  
        developing	
  countries	
  have	
  large	
  surpluses.ie.	
  China.	
  This	
  made	
  the	
  developing	
  
        countries	
  (China)	
  to	
  finance	
  the	
  developed	
  ones	
  (U.S.).	
  	
  Instead	
  of	
  blaming	
  
        developing	
  countries	
  for	
  saving	
  rather	
  than	
  over	
  spending	
  developed	
  countries	
  
        should	
  learn	
  to	
  manage	
  their	
  spending’s.	
  	
  Developing	
  countries	
  measure	
  their	
  
        creditability	
  by	
  the	
  amount	
  of	
  foreign	
  reserve	
  they	
  poses	
  where	
  else	
  that	
  is	
  not	
  
        the	
  condition	
  for	
  developed	
  countries.	
  It	
  appears	
  that	
  the	
  general	
  trend	
  was	
  that	
  
        if	
  GDP	
  is	
  sizeable	
  and	
  though	
  a	
  developed	
  country	
  is	
  running	
  on	
  deficient,	
  banks	
  
        and	
  investors	
  took	
  it	
  for	
  granted	
  before	
  studying	
  the	
  basics	
  of	
  investments.	
  
        There	
  were	
  different	
  rules	
  for	
  developed	
  and	
  developing	
  economies	
  and	
  this	
  may	
  
        be	
  one	
  of	
  the	
  attributes.	
  	
  
        Second	
  attribute	
  is	
  protectionism	
  and	
  in	
  adequate	
  financial	
  help	
  to	
  poor	
  
        countries.	
  For	
  example	
  protectionism	
  measures	
  deeply	
  penalize	
  poorer	
  
        countries	
  that	
  rely	
  on	
  a	
  restricted	
  number	
  of	
  export	
  products	
  ie.	
  Crops	
  and	
  
        minerals.	
  
        Third	
  attribute	
  is	
  Loss	
  in	
  competitiveness,	
  Germany	
  had	
  improved	
  in	
  
        competitiveness	
  in	
  terms	
  of	
  changes	
  in	
  unit	
  labor	
  cost	
  	
  but	
  Greece,	
  Portugal	
  
        Ireland,	
  Italy	
  and	
  Spain	
  	
  lost	
  it.	
  
        Fourth	
  attribute	
  can	
  be	
  the	
  lack	
  of	
  cross	
  border	
  	
  financial	
  supervision	
  and	
  lack	
  of	
  
        fiscal	
  policy	
  coordination.	
  	
  
        Fifth	
  attribute	
  is	
  the	
  difference	
  in	
  productivity	
  among	
  Eurozone	
  countries	
  if	
  we	
  
        compare	
  with	
  GDP	
  per	
  hour	
  worked	
  we	
  can	
  see	
  that	
  countries	
  like	
  Slovakia,	
  
        Slovenia,	
  Portugal	
  and	
  Greeece	
  are	
  below	
  30	
  per	
  hour	
  worked	
  and	
  France,	
  
        Belgium	
  and	
  Ireland	
  have	
  50	
  Per	
  hour	
  worked	
  .	
  (Exhibit	
  3)	
  
The	
  Eurozone	
  Crisis	
  Impact	
  on	
  Chinese	
  &	
  Indian	
  Economies	
                                                                                                                                                                                      5	
  

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          	
  
Sixth	
  attribute	
  is	
  	
  the	
  rice	
  in	
  Gini	
  index	
  which	
  shows	
  the	
  income	
  disparity.	
  The	
  
gap	
  between	
  rich	
  and	
  poor	
  is	
  increasing	
  the	
  top	
  five	
  countries	
  where	
  Gini	
  index	
  
is	
  maximum	
  in	
  Europe	
  are	
  Portugal,	
  Greece,	
  Italy,	
  Spain	
  and	
  Ireland.(Exhibit	
  4)	
  
	
  
	
  
1.3	
  Eurozone	
  Crisis:	
  Effect	
  on	
  European	
  Economy	
  
The	
  European	
  economy	
  has	
  contracted	
  by	
  about	
  0.3%	
  in	
  2012	
  and	
  is	
  forecasted	
  
to	
  grow	
  by	
  1%	
  in	
  2013	
  similarly	
  the	
  unemployment	
  rate	
  is	
  in	
  2012	
  is	
  11%	
  and	
  is	
  
expected	
  to	
  be	
  10.3%	
  in	
  2013.	
  (Source	
  BBC).Bujt	
  one	
  important	
  factor	
  is	
  the	
  rise	
  
in	
  unemployment	
  in	
  the	
  young	
  population	
  ,	
  it	
  is	
  at	
  the	
  highest	
  level.	
  (Exhibit	
  5	
  &	
  
6)	
  
	
  
1.4	
  Eurozone	
  Crisis:	
  Effect	
  on	
  Global	
  Economy	
  
	
  
Eurozone	
  crisis	
  is	
  not	
  just	
  affecting	
  the	
  economies	
  of	
  the17	
  member	
  countries	
  or	
  	
  	
  
European	
  countries	
  but	
  all	
  the	
  countries	
  from	
  US,	
  China	
  to	
  African	
  countries.	
  
Eurozone	
  is	
  a	
  big	
  market	
  for	
  US,	
  China	
  and	
  India	
  the	
  slowdown	
  in	
  Eurozone	
  will	
  
slowdown	
  the	
  economies	
  or	
  related	
  countries	
  too.	
  If	
  the	
  Euro	
  collapse	
  it	
  will	
  not	
  
only	
  affect	
  322	
  million	
  Europeans	
  but	
  also	
  150million	
  African	
  countries	
  whose	
  
currency	
  is	
  pegged	
  to	
  Euro.	
  Also	
  the	
  world	
  financial	
  system	
  will	
  collapse	
  as	
  many	
  
major	
  banks	
  hold	
  large	
  amount	
  of	
  Euro.	
  This	
  may	
  bring	
  an	
  economic	
  recession	
  
worse	
  than	
  what	
  world	
  had	
  experienced	
  in	
  2007.	
  
	
  	
  
	
  
2.1	
  Chinese	
  Economy:	
  Brief	
  Introduction	
  
	
  
China	
  is	
  currently	
  is	
  second	
  largest	
  economy	
  of	
  world	
  having	
  a	
  GDP	
  of	
  11.29	
  
Trillion	
  United	
  States	
  Dollars	
  (USD)	
  as	
  per	
  Purchasing	
  Power	
  Parity	
  (PPP).	
  Its	
  
economic	
  reform	
  started	
  in	
  1978	
  and	
  since	
  then	
  it	
  is	
  progressing	
  with	
  an	
  average	
  
GDP	
  growth	
  rate	
  of	
  10%.	
  Its	
  had	
  developed	
  it	
  self	
  as	
  the	
  factory	
  for	
  the	
  world.	
  If	
  
we	
  consider	
  the	
  	
  sector	
  wise	
  break	
  up	
  of	
  Chinese	
  Economy	
  agriculture:	
  10.1%,	
  
industry:	
  46.8%,	
  services:	
  43.1%.	
  The	
  Industry	
  and	
  Services	
  are	
  balanced	
  but	
  
agriculture	
  is	
  very	
  less.	
  	
  

                                                                                                             Sectorwise	
  break-­‐up	
  of	
  Chinese	
  
                                                                                                                         Economy	
  

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Agriculture	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Industry	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Services	
  


                                                                                                                               	
  
	
  
	
  It	
  has	
  become	
  an	
  export-­‐oriented	
  economy	
  with	
  surplus	
  in	
  terms	
  of	
  balance	
  of	
  
payment.	
  It	
  has	
  a	
  foreign	
  reserve	
  of	
  more	
  than	
  3	
  trillion	
  USD.	
  And	
  it	
  is	
  forecasted	
  
it	
  will	
  take	
  over	
  US	
  by	
  2020.	
  
When	
  we	
  consider	
  China	
  economy	
  it	
  is	
  keenly	
  observed	
  &	
  controlled	
  by	
  
government	
  there	
  are	
  nearly	
  all	
  large-­‐scale	
  business	
  and	
  banks	
  are	
  SOEs	
  (State	
  

	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
6	
            The	
  Eurozone	
  Crisis	
  Impact	
  on	
  Chinese	
  &	
  Indian	
  Economies	
  
                                                                                                                                           	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
        Owned	
  Enterprise)	
  while	
  medium	
  to	
  small-­‐scale	
  industry	
  are	
  dominated	
  by	
  
        private	
  players.	
  	
  Till	
  now	
  china	
  has	
  protected	
  its	
  domestic	
  companies	
  from	
  
        foreign	
  competitors.	
  China	
  initially	
  started	
  as	
  a	
  location	
  for	
  low	
  cost	
  labor	
  but	
  
        with	
  economic	
  growth	
  that	
  advantage	
  is	
  decreasing	
  also	
  the	
  rise	
  in	
  the	
  older	
  
        population	
  is	
  a	
  concern.	
  China	
  is	
  now	
  concentrating	
  its	
  focus	
  on	
  more	
  sustainable	
  
        industries	
  such	
  as	
  services	
  &	
  R&D.	
  Also	
  11th	
  5	
  year	
  plan	
  has	
  laid	
  emphasis	
  on	
  
        environmental	
  aspects	
  too.	
  Another	
  concern	
  for	
  China	
  is	
  the	
  rise	
  in	
  income	
  
        disparity	
  among	
  earning	
  population.	
  	
  
        We	
  should	
  appreciate	
  the	
  commitment	
  that	
  the	
  Chinese	
  political	
  leaders	
  have	
  
        towards	
  economic	
  growth.	
  Since	
  1978	
  they	
  have	
  achieved	
  all	
  major	
  5	
  year	
  plan	
  
        targets.	
  They	
  have	
  industrialized,	
  developed	
  infrastructure	
  and	
  acquired	
  skill	
  
        sets	
  for	
  human	
  resource	
  for	
  sustaining	
  this	
  growth	
  weather	
  by	
  sending	
  people	
  
        outside	
  for	
  studies	
  or	
  by	
  developing	
  Chinese	
  education	
  system.	
  
        We	
  can	
  say	
  China	
  is	
  a	
  much	
  healthy	
  economy	
  as	
  the	
  government	
  debt	
  to	
  GDP	
  is	
  
        about	
  25%	
  (Exhibit	
  7),	
  Balance	
  of	
  trades	
  is	
  always	
  surplus	
  (Exhibit	
  8)	
  and	
  the	
  
        unemployment	
  rate	
  is	
  low	
  about	
  4.1%(Exhibit	
  9).	
  Another	
  major	
  challenge,	
  
        which	
  China	
  is	
  facing,	
  is	
  the	
  increasing	
  disparity	
  in	
  income	
  level.	
  It	
  has	
  a	
  GINI	
  
        index	
  of	
  45%	
  (0.48),	
  which	
  can	
  be	
  said	
  alarming.	
  	
  Initially	
  China	
  approached	
  the	
  
        theory	
  of	
  “Let	
  some	
  people	
  get	
  rich	
  first”	
  this	
  has	
  given	
  rise	
  to	
  such	
  disparity.	
  The	
  
        costal	
  provinces	
  are	
  very	
  developed	
  as	
  compared	
  to	
  the	
  central	
  provinces.	
  	
  
        The	
  recent	
  conflict	
  arising	
  with	
  Japan	
  related	
  to	
  	
  Diaoyu	
  islands	
  may	
  also	
  slow	
  
        down	
  the	
  economy	
  further,	
  Japan	
  being	
  major	
  trading	
  partner	
  for	
  China.	
  
        	
  
        2.2	
  Chinese	
  Economy:	
  Impact	
  of	
  Eurozone	
  Crisis	
  
        As	
  we	
  know	
  that	
  China	
  is	
  basically	
  an	
  export-­‐oriented	
  economy	
  and	
  if	
  we	
  see	
  the	
  
        statistics	
  its	
  major	
  export	
  partner	
  is	
  Europe,	
  it	
  accounts	
  of	
  about	
  17%	
  of	
  Exports	
  
        and	
  8%	
  imports.	
  	
  
        	
  We	
  can	
  say	
  the	
  Chinese	
  economy	
  is	
  highly	
  dependent	
  on	
  European	
  market.	
  Any	
  
        slowdown	
  in	
  Eurozone	
  will	
  affect	
  Chinese	
  economy.	
  We	
  have	
  seen	
  it	
  during	
  
        Eurozone	
  crisis	
  when	
  the	
  growth	
  rate	
  of	
  China	
  felled	
  below	
  8%	
  mark	
  in	
  months	
  
        in	
  2012	
  and	
  Chinese	
  government	
  has	
  revised	
  real	
  GDP	
  growth	
  rate	
  at	
  7.5%.	
  	
  
        	
  




                                                                                                                                                	
  
        If	
  we	
  see	
  in	
  above	
  graph	
  there	
  is	
  a	
  significant	
  slowing	
  down	
  of	
  Chinese	
  economy	
  
        with	
  the	
  onset	
  of	
  Eurozone	
  crisis.	
  Also	
  there	
  is	
  a	
  problem	
  of	
  increase	
  in	
  inventory	
  
        for	
  goods	
  as	
  the	
  demand	
  in	
  EU	
  has	
  reduced	
  but	
  production	
  in	
  China	
  haven’t.	
  This	
  
        has	
  created	
  problems	
  for	
  stockiest	
  and	
  dealers.	
  
        FDI	
  in	
  China	
  has	
  also	
  reduced	
  by	
  3.7%	
  over	
  all	
  and	
  4.1%	
  from	
  EU	
  this	
  year	
  and	
  it	
  
        is	
  attributed	
  to	
  the	
  Eurozone	
  crisis.	
  Yuan	
  is	
  appreciating	
  but	
  there	
  is	
  no	
  problem	
  
        of	
  Unemployment	
  though	
  orders	
  have	
  reduced	
  and	
  industrial	
  production	
  has	
  
The	
  Eurozone	
  Crisis	
  Impact	
  on	
  Chinese	
  &	
  Indian	
  Economies	
                                                                                                                                                                    7	
  

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          	
  
slowed	
  down	
  seen	
  due	
  to	
  the	
  crisis.	
  Also	
  the	
  balance	
  of	
  trade	
  has	
  taken	
  during	
  
start	
  of	
  2012	
  and	
  also	
  the	
  unemployment	
  rate	
  was	
  nearly	
  fixed	
  around	
  4%	
  mark.	
  
	
  
2.3	
  Chinese	
  Economy:	
  Actions	
  Taken	
  
	
  
In	
  order	
  to	
  fight	
  the	
  slowdown	
  and	
  to	
  take	
  advantage	
  of	
  Eurozone	
  crisis	
  China	
  
has	
  taken	
  following	
  steps:	
  
       1. Focus	
  has	
  been	
  diverted	
  to	
  Africa	
  and	
  development	
  of	
  African	
  &	
  Emerging	
  
           economies.	
  
       2. China	
  is	
  investing	
  directly	
  or	
  indirectly	
  in	
  Europe	
  on	
  the	
  principle	
  
           “Recession	
  is	
  the	
  best	
  time	
  to	
  invest”.	
  China’s	
  direct	
  investment	
  in	
  Europe	
  
           soars	
  up	
  in	
  second	
  quarter	
  of	
  2012	
  by	
  more	
  than	
  67%	
  as	
  compared	
  to	
  last	
  
           year.	
  
       3. China	
  is	
  ready	
  to	
  support	
  or	
  even	
  bailout	
  countries	
  like	
  Greece	
  and	
  bailing	
  
           out	
  Europe	
  but	
  surprisingly	
  major	
  Chinese	
  are	
  back	
  away	
  from	
  European	
  
           lenders	
  it	
  appears	
  as	
  a	
  paradox.	
  
       4. China	
  has	
  cut	
  down	
  the	
  interest	
  rates	
  in	
  May	
  2012	
  to	
  boost	
  up	
  industrial	
  
           activity.	
  
           	
  
2.4	
  Chinese	
  Economy:	
  Suggestions	
  
	
  
       1. China	
  should	
  increase	
  its	
  domestic	
  consumption	
  for	
  GDP	
  growth	
  rather	
  
           than	
  wholly	
  dependent	
  on	
  exports.	
  
       2. China	
  should	
  diversify	
  its	
  exports	
  to	
  developed	
  as	
  well	
  as	
  emerging	
  and	
  
           underdeveloped	
  countries	
  so	
  that	
  it	
  can	
  reduce	
  the	
  risk	
  of	
  induced	
  
           economic	
  slowdown.	
  China	
  has	
  already	
  started	
  this	
  activity	
  by	
  focusing	
  on	
  
           Africa.	
  
       3. China	
  should	
  increase	
  its	
  investment	
  in	
  Europe	
  and	
  they	
  are	
  already	
  
           implementing	
  it.	
  
       4. China	
  should	
  try	
  to	
  stabilize	
  and	
  if	
  possible	
  bail	
  out	
  Europe	
  so	
  that	
  its	
  
           economic	
  growth	
  is	
  not	
  affected.	
  
       5. China	
  should	
  not	
  follow	
  the	
  western/European	
  model	
  of	
  spending	
  on	
  
           deficient.	
  
       6. China	
  should	
  focus	
  more	
  towards	
  services	
  rather	
  than	
  industry	
  as	
  it	
  is	
  
           slowly	
  losing	
  its	
  advantage	
  of	
  low	
  cost	
  labor	
  hub.	
  	
  	
  
       7. China	
  should	
  focus	
  in	
  reducing	
  its	
  GINI	
  index	
  of	
  48%	
  is	
  a	
  bit	
  high.	
  Chinese	
  
           government	
  is	
  already	
  on	
  action;	
  it	
  has	
  stopped	
  the	
  special	
  benefits	
  &	
  tax	
  
           holidays,	
  which	
  were	
  earlier	
  given	
  in	
  costal	
  provinces.	
  Instead	
  they	
  are	
  
           encouraging	
  foreign	
  companies	
  to	
  set-­‐up	
  their	
  plant	
  in	
  central	
  part	
  of	
  
           China	
  by	
  granting	
  them	
  special	
  benefits	
  and	
  tax	
  holidays.	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
3.1	
  Indian	
  Economy:	
  Brief	
  Introduction	
  
Indian	
  economy	
  is	
  fourth	
  largest	
  economy	
  of	
  World	
  with	
  a	
  GDP	
  of	
  4.457	
  Trillion	
  
USD	
  as	
  per	
  PPP.	
  After	
  China	
  it	
  is	
  Indian	
  Economy	
  on	
  which	
  on	
  rapid	
  growth	
  
among	
  emerging	
  economies.	
  It	
  is	
  an	
  economy	
  based	
  on	
  services.	
  It	
  is	
  also	
  seen	
  as	
  
a	
  lucrative	
  market,	
  which	
  is	
  highly	
  dynamic.	
  If	
  we	
  consider	
  the	
  break	
  up	
  of	
  Indian	
  
Economy	
  sector	
  wise	
  Agriculture	
  is	
  17.2%,	
  Industry	
  is	
  26.4	
  %	
  and	
  services	
  
constitute	
  56.4%.	
  


	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
8	
           The	
  Eurozone	
  Crisis	
  Impact	
  on	
  Chinese	
  &	
  Indian	
  Economies	
  
                                                                                                                                           	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

                                Sectorwise	
  break-­‐up	
  of	
  Indian	
  
                                          Economy	
  

                                                                                                                 Agriculture	
  
                                                                                                                 Industry	
  
                                                                                                                 Services	
  



        	
  
        We	
  can	
  observe	
  that	
  the	
  Industry	
  and	
  services	
  are	
  not	
  in	
  balance.	
  It	
  is	
  becoming	
  
        a	
  service	
  hub.	
  Especially	
  IT	
  &	
  BPO	
  (Business	
  Processed	
  Outsourcing)	
  services.	
  	
  
        India	
  is	
  facing	
  the	
  problems	
  of	
  Government	
  debt	
  and	
  maintains	
  balance	
  of	
  trade.	
  
        The	
  Government	
  debt	
  is	
  about	
  68.53%	
  of	
  GDP	
  (Exhibit	
  13)	
  and	
  balance	
  of	
  trade	
  
        has	
  always	
  been	
  in	
  deficit	
  (Exhibit	
  14).	
  Major	
  portion	
  of	
  import,	
  which	
  India	
  has,	
  
        is	
  crude	
  oil.	
  Even	
  the	
  foreign	
  reserve,	
  which	
  India	
  has,	
  is	
  not	
  too	
  much.	
  Its	
  about	
  
        328	
  billion	
  USD.	
  The	
  major	
  trade	
  partners	
  for	
  India	
  is	
  EU	
  followed	
  by	
  China.	
  
        India	
  has	
  maximum	
  trade	
  deficit	
  with	
  China.	
  The	
  unemployment	
  rate	
  has	
  sharply	
  
        reduced	
  to	
  3.8%	
  from	
  9.4	
  %(2010)	
  (Exhibit	
  15).	
  This	
  is	
  a	
  good	
  sign	
  as	
  the	
  period	
  
        of	
  Eurozone	
  crisis	
  when	
  west	
  is	
  facing	
  high	
  unemployment	
  rate	
  India’s	
  
        unemployment	
  rate	
  has	
  reduced	
  by	
  one	
  third.	
  	
  
        If	
  we	
  consider	
  the	
  industry	
  structure	
  the	
  heavy	
  industry	
  are	
  dominated	
  by	
  SOEs	
  
        but	
  they	
  all	
  are	
  now	
  opened	
  for	
  domestic	
  private	
  players	
  so	
  that	
  the	
  monopoly	
  of	
  
        SOEs	
  can	
  be	
  removed	
  and	
  the	
  competition	
  will	
  allow	
  SOEs	
  and	
  private	
  players	
  to	
  
        improve.	
  If	
  we	
  compare	
  to	
  China,	
  Indian	
  government	
  supports	
  entrepreneurship	
  
        most,	
  and	
  then	
  the	
  JVs	
  with	
  foreign	
  players.	
  The	
  philosophy	
  behind	
  this	
  is	
  that	
  a	
  
        small	
  or	
  medium	
  scale	
  enterprise	
  started	
  by	
  an	
  entrepreneur	
  provides	
  much	
  
        more	
  employment,	
  the	
  profit	
  earned	
  by	
  that	
  is	
  distributed	
  to	
  many	
  individuals	
  
        rather	
  than	
  in	
  a	
  JV	
  where	
  the	
  share	
  of	
  profit	
  goes	
  out	
  to	
  foreign	
  firm.	
  	
  
        India	
  is	
  still	
  relatively	
  closed	
  to	
  China	
  when	
  it	
  comes	
  to	
  FDI(Foreign	
  Direct	
  
        Investments)	
  still	
  there	
  are	
  many	
  sectors	
  where	
  	
  FDI	
  is	
  either	
  restricted	
  or	
  very	
  
        less.	
  To	
  boost	
  its	
  economy	
  India	
  can	
  open	
  the	
  sectors	
  and	
  this	
  can	
  attract	
  foreign	
  
        investors.	
  	
  	
  
        India	
  has	
  a	
  major	
  challenge	
  of	
  keeping	
  economic	
  growth	
  with	
  politics.	
  As	
  
        compared	
  to	
  China	
  where	
  stern	
  decisions	
  can	
  be	
  taken	
  by	
  government	
  for	
  
        economic	
  development	
  of	
  country	
  in	
  India	
  this	
  is	
  not	
  the	
  same	
  case.	
  There	
  have	
  
        been	
  major	
  cases	
  for	
  example	
  the	
  land	
  acquisition	
  case	
  for	
  POSCO	
  (Korean	
  
        mining	
  giant)	
  or	
  opening	
  of	
  FDI	
  in	
  retail.	
  	
  
        If	
  we	
  compare	
  to	
  GINI	
  index,	
  which	
  is	
  38%	
  (0.38)	
  for	
  India,	
  which	
  is	
  marginally	
  
        better	
  than,	
  China	
  but	
  still	
  it	
  should	
  be	
  ideally	
  controlled	
  below	
  35%(0.35).	
  
        	
  
        3.2	
  Indian	
  Economy:	
  Impact	
  of	
  Eurozone	
  Crisis	
  
        Indian	
  economy	
  is	
  much	
  more	
  venerable	
  than	
  to	
  China	
  to	
  Eurozone	
  crisis.	
  
        One	
  of	
  the	
  reasons	
  is	
  services	
  sector	
  (IT),	
  which	
  is	
  concentrated	
  on	
  US	
  and	
  
        Europe.	
  
        Because	
  of	
  the	
  crisis	
  many	
  major	
  European	
  projects	
  have	
  been	
  paused	
  while	
  new	
  
        are	
  not	
  released.	
  Though	
  in	
  some	
  cases	
  Eurozone	
  can	
  be	
  considered	
  beneficial	
  
        for	
  India,	
  for	
  example	
  the	
  reduction	
  in	
  unemployment	
  rate	
  from	
  9%	
  to	
  about	
  3.8	
  
        %(Exhibit	
  15)	
  during	
  Eurozone	
  crisis	
  is	
  due	
  to	
  the	
  factor	
  that	
  many	
  European	
  
The	
  Eurozone	
  Crisis	
  Impact	
  on	
  Chinese	
  &	
  Indian	
  Economies	
                                                                                                                                                                    9	
  

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          	
  
firms	
  are	
  improving	
  their	
  bottom	
  line	
  by	
  cutting	
  down	
  their	
  expenses.	
  They	
  are	
  
outsourcing	
  many	
  jobs	
  related	
  to	
  (BPO)	
  to	
  India	
  where	
  low	
  cost,	
  skilled	
  labor	
  is	
  
available.	
  
	
  




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  	
  
From	
  the	
  above	
  graph	
  we	
  can	
  see	
  that	
  the	
  GDP	
  growth	
  has	
  fallen	
  below	
  6%	
  mark	
  
though	
  it	
  is	
  increasing	
  now.	
  Government	
  of	
  India	
  has	
  reduced	
  the	
  GDP	
  growth	
  
target	
  for	
  year	
  2012-­‐13	
  from	
  7.5%	
  to	
  6.5	
  %.	
  This	
  can	
  be	
  attributed	
  to	
  the	
  
slowdown	
  caused	
  by	
  Eurozone	
  crisis.	
  
Europe	
  is	
  biggest	
  trading	
  partner	
  for	
  India.	
  With	
  exports	
  accounting	
  to	
  about	
  
19%	
  and	
  imports	
  about	
  14%	
  .	
  Even	
  though	
  the	
  exports	
  to	
  EU	
  have	
  sill	
  been	
  
positive	
  Exports	
  growth	
  30%	
  &	
  Import	
  Growth	
  16	
  %	
  approx.,	
  the	
  fear	
  of	
  crisis	
  
deepening	
  threatens	
  India.	
  
	
  




                                                                       	
  
FDI	
  investment	
  inflow	
  has	
  increased	
  by	
  34%	
  this	
  during	
  year	
  2011-­‐12	
  as	
  
compared	
  to	
  year	
  2010-­‐11.	
  Though	
  the	
  FDI	
  during	
  2011-­‐12	
  was	
  about	
  46.48	
  
billion	
  USD	
  which	
  is	
  nearly	
  one	
  fourth	
  of	
  China’s	
  FDI	
  inflow.	
  And	
  the	
  FDI	
  inflow	
  
during	
  first	
  few	
  months	
  of	
  year	
  2012-­‐13	
  is	
  19.5	
  billion	
  USD	
  as	
  compared	
  to	
  7.1	
  
billion	
  dollars	
  last	
  year.	
  The	
  FDI	
  condition	
  doesn’t	
  look	
  bad	
  at	
  present	
  but	
  if	
  this	
  
crisis	
  deepens	
  then	
  it	
  will	
  be	
  tough	
  for	
  India	
  to	
  attract	
  foreign	
  investors.	
  	
  
Meanwhile	
  the	
  FDI	
  outflow	
  towards	
  Europe	
  has	
  increased	
  specially	
  Indian	
  IT	
  
firms.	
  But	
  still	
  India	
  is	
  not	
  figuring	
  among	
  top	
  10	
  countries	
  investing	
  in	
  Europe	
  
where	
  else	
  China	
  is	
  among	
  them.	
  
The	
  free	
  fall	
  of	
  rupee	
  against	
  USD	
  is	
  a	
  major	
  concern	
  for	
  Indian	
  Economy.	
  This	
  
causes	
  the	
  Oil	
  deficit	
  for	
  the	
  country	
  to	
  pile	
  up.	
  Government	
  has	
  taken	
  some	
  
stringent	
  actions	
  to	
  arrest	
  this.	
  	
  

	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
10	
       The	
  Eurozone	
  Crisis	
  Impact	
  on	
  Chinese	
  &	
  Indian	
  Economies	
  
                                                                                                                                              	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
     	
  
     3.3	
  Indian	
  Economy:	
  Actions	
  Taken	
  
     In	
  order	
  to	
  avoid	
  economic	
  slow	
  down	
  Indian	
  government	
  has	
  taken	
  following	
  
     steps:	
  
            1. The	
  export	
  focus	
  has	
  been	
  shifted	
  from	
  western	
  countries	
  to	
  emerging	
  
                economies.	
  Indian	
  government	
  encourages	
  domestic	
  companies	
  to	
  export	
  
                to	
  African	
  countries.	
  This	
  may	
  be	
  one	
  of	
  the	
  reasons	
  that	
  even	
  during	
  the	
  
                Eurozone	
  crisis	
  Indian	
  exports	
  are	
  not	
  hit	
  much.	
  
            2. 	
  Decision	
  to	
  open	
  FDI	
  upto	
  51%	
  in	
  multiband	
  retail	
  is	
  the	
  way	
  of	
  
                government	
  to	
  attract	
  foreign	
  investors	
  in	
  India	
  and	
  ensure	
  that	
  flow	
  of	
  
                FDI	
  is	
  continuous.	
  
            3. Reduction	
  in	
  interest	
  rates.	
  During	
  February	
  &	
  March	
  2012	
  the	
  industrial	
  
                growth	
  of	
  India	
  was	
  at	
  standstill	
  to	
  boost	
  it	
  government	
  decreased	
  the	
  
                interest	
  rates.	
  	
  
            4. 	
  In	
  order	
  to	
  reduce	
  the	
  government	
  deficit	
  it	
  has	
  reduced	
  some	
  subsidies	
  
                on	
  Oil	
  &	
  Gas	
  products.	
  
            5. For	
  boosting	
  service	
  sector	
  government	
  has	
  encouraged	
  foreign	
  firms	
  to	
  
                set	
  up	
  their	
  R&D	
  facility.	
  
     	
  
     3.4	
  Indian	
  Economy:	
  Suggestions	
  
     	
  
            1. India	
  should	
  focus	
  on	
  emerging	
  economies	
  rather	
  than	
  developed	
  
                countries	
  for	
  exports	
  as	
  recent	
  economic	
  crisis	
  has	
  proved	
  that	
  western	
  
                economic	
  models	
  are	
  not	
  sustainable.	
  
            2. India	
  should	
  reduce	
  its	
  spending	
  as	
  the	
  deficit	
  in	
  terms	
  of	
  GDP	
  is	
  high	
  
                about	
  68%	
  though	
  it	
  is	
  continuously	
  decreasing	
  from	
  past	
  5	
  years.	
  
            3. India	
  should	
  spend	
  more	
  on	
  basic	
  like	
  primary	
  &	
  secondary	
  education	
  
                this	
  will	
  generate	
  more	
  skilled	
  manpower	
  required	
  for	
  service	
  sector.	
  
            4. Competitiveness	
  of	
  SOEs	
  should	
  be	
  improved	
  which	
  government	
  has	
  
                already	
  done	
  by	
  allowing	
  domestic	
  players	
  in	
  many	
  sectors	
  such	
  as	
  
                defense	
  production.	
  
            5. Indian	
  firms	
  should	
  diversify	
  in	
  Europe	
  as	
  during	
  recession,	
  as	
  it	
  is	
  the	
  
                right	
  time	
  to	
  invest	
  and	
  they	
  have	
  capital	
  to	
  invest.	
  
            6. 	
  India	
  should	
  try	
  to	
  reduce	
  the	
  balance	
  of	
  trade	
  by	
  exporting	
  services	
  to	
  
                emerging	
  economies	
  as	
  well.	
  
            7. India	
  should	
  make	
  some	
  strong	
  laws	
  regarding	
  land	
  acquisition,	
  which	
  is	
  
                a	
  concern	
  for	
  many	
  FDI	
  investors.	
  
            8. India	
  should	
  try	
  to	
  attract	
  FDI	
  in	
  infrastructural	
  projects.	
  	
  
            9. India	
  should	
  develop	
  some	
  alternative	
  such	
  as	
  biofuel,	
  which	
  can	
  reduce	
  
                its	
  dependency	
  on	
  crude	
  oil,	
  which	
  at	
  present	
  covers	
  about	
  40%	
  of	
  its	
  
                total	
  imports.	
  
            10. India	
  should	
  market	
  its	
  handicrafts,	
  tourism	
  and	
  traditional	
  medication	
  
                more	
  aggressively.	
  They	
  can	
  earn	
  a	
  lot	
  of	
  foreign	
  currency	
  and	
  improve	
  
                standard	
  of	
  living	
  of	
  masses,	
  which	
  in	
  turn	
  increases	
  domestic	
  
                consumption.	
  
            11. Sustainable	
  development	
  should	
  be	
  preferred	
  rather	
  than	
  the	
  rapid	
  and	
  
                unsustainable	
  growth.	
  
                	
  
                	
  
                	
  
            4.1 Conclusion:	
  
                   In	
  conclusion	
  I	
  will	
  like	
  to	
  say	
  that	
  Eurozone	
  crisis	
  is	
  the	
  outcome	
  of	
  an	
  
                   unstable	
  economic	
  structure.	
  In	
  order	
  to	
  boost	
  consumption	
  people	
  and	
  
The	
  Eurozone	
  Crisis	
  Impact	
  on	
  Chinese	
  &	
  Indian	
  Economies	
                                                                                                                                                                    11	
  

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          	
  
                                                         government	
  were	
  encouraged	
  to	
  spend	
  on	
  credit.	
  And	
  this	
  credit	
  comes	
  
                                                         as	
  a	
  loan	
  from	
  future	
  and	
  when	
  it	
  reaches	
  its	
  tipping	
  point	
  we	
  find	
  
                                                         ourselves	
  in	
  recession.	
  Bubbles	
  are	
  formed	
  when	
  virtual(fake)	
  demands	
  
                                                         are	
  created	
  for	
  short	
  period	
  of	
  time	
  these	
  bubbles	
  can	
  act	
  as	
  a	
  catalyst	
  but	
  
                                                         they	
  always	
  burst	
  into	
  recessions.	
  
                                                         Hence	
  I	
  would	
  say	
  for	
  a	
  sustainable	
  development	
  should	
  always	
  take	
  the	
  
                                                         middle	
  path,	
  which	
  is	
  also	
  said	
  as	
  the	
  “Mean	
  way”	
  according	
  to	
  
                                                         Confucianism.	
  Eastern	
  economies	
  still	
  follow	
  the	
  same	
  and	
  now	
  its	
  again	
  
                                                         the	
  west	
  looking	
  towards	
  east	
  for	
  solutions	
  and	
  the	
  sustainable	
  structure	
  
                                                         of	
  economy.	
  Savings	
  may	
  be	
  a	
  new	
  term	
  for	
  west	
  but	
  it	
  is	
  built	
  in	
  value	
  in	
  
                                                         eastern	
  culture.	
  I	
  still	
  regard	
  Korean	
  model	
  of	
  development	
  much	
  better	
  
                                                         than	
  the	
  western	
  model.	
  Collectivism	
  is	
  any	
  day	
  better	
  than	
  individualism	
  
                                                         otherwise	
  we	
  will	
  be	
  seeing	
  “Occupy	
  Wall	
  Street”	
  movements	
  and	
  
                                                         economic	
  crisis	
  very	
  often.	
  
                                                         	
  I	
  think	
  this	
  is	
  the	
  right	
  juncture	
  to	
  think	
  and	
  act,	
  when	
  the	
  fast	
  
                                                         developing	
  economies	
  should	
  come	
  out	
  from	
  the	
  rat	
  race	
  of	
  GDP	
  growth	
  
                                                         but	
  focus	
  on	
  sustainable	
  development.	
  One	
  of	
  the	
  reasons	
  that	
  India	
  and	
  
                                                         China	
  were	
  not	
  hit	
  much	
  in	
  previous	
  recession	
  was	
  because	
  they	
  had	
  
                                                         taken	
  the	
  “Mean	
  way”	
  for	
  economic	
  liberation.	
  
	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    -­‐-­‐<>-­‐-­‐	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
12	
               The	
  Eurozone	
  Crisis	
  Impact	
  on	
  Chinese	
  &	
  Indian	
  Economies	
  
                                                                                                          	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
     Exhibit	
  1	
  




                                                                                                                                        	
  
            	
  
            	
  
            Exhibit	
  2	
  




                                                                                                                                 	
  
            	
  
            	
  
            	
  
     	
  
The	
  Eurozone	
  Crisis	
  Impact	
  on	
  Chinese	
  &	
  Indian	
  Economies	
                                                                                                                                                                           13	
  

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          	
  
Exhibit	
  3	
  
   GDP	
  per	
  Hour	
  worked	
  2008	
  




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               	
  
                           	
  
	
  
Exhibit	
  4	
  
     Gini’s	
  Coefficient	
  (as	
  %)	
  
     	
  




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               	
  
                           	
  
                           	
  
                           	
  
                           	
  
                           Exhibit	
  5	
  
                           	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Unemployment	
  in	
  EU	
  



	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
14	
           The	
  Eurozone	
  Crisis	
  Impact	
  on	
  Chinese	
  &	
  Indian	
  Economies	
  
                                                                                                        	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  




                                                                                                                                      	
  
     	
  
             	
  
             Exhibit	
  6	
  
             	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Unemployment	
  Young	
  population	
  




                                                                                                                               	
  
     	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Exhibit	
  7	
  
                                	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  China	
  Government	
  Debt	
  to	
  GDP.	
  




                                                                                                                     	
  
             	
  
             	
  
             	
  
             Exhibit	
  8	
  
             	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  China	
  Balance	
  of	
  Trade	
  
The	
  Eurozone	
  Crisis	
  Impact	
  on	
  Chinese	
  &	
  Indian	
  Economies	
                                                                                                                                                                    15	
  

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          	
  
                           	
  




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           	
  
                           Exhibit	
  9	
  
                           China	
  Unemployment	
  rate	
  




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           	
  
                           Exhibit	
  10	
  
                           	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Trade	
  of	
  Goods	
  EU	
  with	
  China	
  	
  




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    	
  
                           	
  	
  
	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Exhibit	
  11	
  
                           	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Trade	
  of	
  Services	
  EU	
  with	
  China	
  




	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
16	
         The	
  Eurozone	
  Crisis	
  Impact	
  on	
  Chinese	
  &	
  Indian	
  Economies	
  
                                                                                                    	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  




                                                                                                                           	
  
            	
  
            	
  
            Exhibit	
  12	
  
            	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  FDI	
  EU	
  with	
  China	
  




                                                                                                                 	
  
     	
  
            Exhibit	
  13	
  
            	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  India	
  Government	
  debt	
  to	
  GDP	
  (%).	
  




                                                                                                                           	
  
            	
  
            	
  
            Exhibit	
  14	
  
            	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  India	
  Balance	
  of	
  Trade	
  
The	
  Eurozone	
  Crisis	
  Impact	
  on	
  Chinese	
  &	
  Indian	
  Economies	
                                                                                                                                                                    17	
  

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          	
  




                           Exhibit	
  15	
  
                           	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  India	
  unemployment	
  rate	
  




                           Exhibit	
  16	
  
                           	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Trade	
  of	
  Goods	
  EU	
  with	
  India	
  




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        	
  
                           	
  
                           Exhibit	
  17	
  
                           	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Trade	
  of	
  Services	
  EU	
  with	
  India	
  




	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
18	
                   The	
  Eurozone	
  Crisis	
  Impact	
  on	
  Chinese	
  &	
  Indian	
  Economies	
  
                                                                                                              	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  




                                                                                                                                     	
  
     	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
     	
  
     	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Exhibit	
  18	
  
                                	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  FDI	
  with	
  India	
  by	
  EU.	
  




                                                                                                                        	
  
                	
  
                	
  
                	
  
                	
  
                	
  
                	
  
                	
  
                	
  
                	
  
                	
  
                	
  
                	
  
                	
  
                	
  
                	
  
                	
  
                	
  
                	
  
     	
  
                	
  
The	
  Eurozone	
  Crisis	
  Impact	
  on	
  Chinese	
  &	
  Indian	
  Economies	
                                                                                                                                                                    19	
  

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          	
  
                           	
  
                           Bibliography	
  
                           	
  
                           1. The	
  Lessons	
  of	
  the	
  Eurozone	
  Crisis	
  that	
  should	
  shape	
  the	
  EUs	
  G20	
  Stand	
  
                                by	
  Yannos	
  Papantoniou	
  Former	
  Economy	
  &	
  Finance	
  Minister	
  of	
  Greece.	
  
                           2. The	
  Euro	
  Debt	
  Crisis	
  and	
  Its	
  Impact	
  on	
  the	
  World	
  By	
  Julian	
  Knight	
  
                           3. BBC	
  Business	
  
                           4. Eurostat	
  	
  
                           5. Market	
  watch	
  
                           6. Financial	
  news	
  
                           7. WTO	
  
                           8. www.tradingecomomies.com	
  
                           9. The	
  Economic	
  Times	
  
                           10. www.publicserviceeurope.com	
  
                           11. Wikipedia	
  	
  

                           	
  

	
  
                           	
  




	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

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Eurozone Crisis:Impact on Chinese & Indian Economy

  • 1. The  Eurozone  Crisis  Impact  on  Chinese  &  Indian  Economies   1                                                                                               The  Eurozone  Crisis   Impact  on  Chinese  &  Indian  Economies                       Author:  Ashish  Jude  Michael   Participant  PGPEx2012   (OUC  China  +IIM  Shillong  )                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        
  • 2. 2   The  Eurozone  Crisis  Impact  on  Chinese  &  Indian  Economies               Table  of  Content     Executive  Summary     1.1Eurozone  Crisis:  Brief  Introduction     1.2Eurozone  Crisis:  Major  Attributes   1.3Eurozone  Crisis:  Effect  on  European  Economy   1.4Eurozone  Crisis:  Effect  on  Global  Economy     2.1  Chinese  Economy:  Brief  Introduction   2.2  Chinese  Economy:  Under  Eurozone  Crisis   2.3  Chinese  Economy:  Actions  Taken   2.4  Chinese  Economy:  Suggestions     3.1  Indian  Economy:  Brief  Introduction   3.2  Indian  Economy:  Under  Eurozone  Crisis   3.3  Indian  Economy:  Actions  Taken   3.4  Indian  Economy:  Suggestions     4.1  Conclusion:     Exhibits:  1-­‐18     Bibliography                                                
  • 3. The  Eurozone  Crisis  Impact  on  Chinese  &  Indian  Economies   3       Executive  Summary   This  report  is  about  the  Eurozone  crisis  and  how  emerging  economies  such  as   India  &  China  should  deal  with  it  and  also  what  they  should  learn  from  this  crisis.   I  have  divided  this  report  basically  into  four  parts;  first  part  gives  the  history,   detail  &  analysis  of  Eurozone  crisis.  Second  part  I  have  explained  briefly  about   Chinese  economy,  how  Eurozone  crisis  has  affected  its  economy,  what  are  the   action  taken  by  government  and  suggestions.  In  third  part  I  have  discussed  about   Indian  economy  on  similar  lines  and  finally  I  have  concluded  in  part  four.   Eurozone  crisis  is  not  a  single  economic  recession,  which  we  have  faced;   in  recent  past  but  it  is  actually  one  of  the  event  in  the  chain  of  events  of  what   economist  commonly  say  “  Global  Financial  Crisis”.  The  table  below  shows  the   events,  which  hit  the  global  economy  during  last  5  years.       2007–2012  Global  Financial  crisis Major  Events   • 2000s  energy  crisis   • 2008–2012  global  recession   • Automotive  industry  crisis  of  2008–2010   • Dodd–Frank  Wall  Street  Reform  and   Consumer  Protection  Act   • European  sovereign-­‐debt  crisis   • Financial  Crisis  Inquiry  Commission   • Subprime  crisis  impact  timeline   • Subprime  mortgage  crisis   • United  States  housing  bubble   • United  States  housing  market  correction     1.1  Eurozone  Crisis:  Brief  Introduction       European  union  trace  back  its  roots  in  1951  with  the  “Treaty  of  Paris”  with  about   6  members.  Now  is  a  economic  &political  union  of  27  countries  of  Europe.  It   having  about  20%  of  global  GDP  as  per  PPP  (Purchasing  Power  Parity).  It   introduced  a  common  currency  Euro  in  2002.The  17  countries  accepted  Euro  as   their  currency  and  these  17  countries  formulate  the  “Eurozone”  .Soon  Euro   became  second  most  traded  currency  of  the  world  just  behind  USD  (United  State   Dollar).     Year  2010  saw  onset  of  European  Sovereign  Debt  Crisis    which  is  commonly   referred  as  Euro  Zone  Crisis.  There  are  four  major  causes  for  this  crisis.     First  the  rising  government  (public)  debts.    The  stability  of  a  country  can  be   determined  by  the  percentage  of  the  government  (public)  debt    to  its  GDP.   (Exhibit  1)  clearly  shows  that  the  relative  position  of  major  countries.  We  can  see   that  Greece  is  already  is  in  a  very  bad  condition  as  its  public  debt  is  436  billion  $   which  constitutes  to  143%  of  its  GDP,  next  to  follow  are  Italy,Ireland  ,Portugal  ,&                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        
  • 4. 4   The  Eurozone  Crisis  Impact  on  Chinese  &  Indian  Economies             Spain  with  figures  of  115%,  95%,93%  and  60%.  Though  Spain  appears  better  in   this  situation  but  in  next  cause  we  can  observe  the  problem  faced  by  Spain.   Second  cause  is  the  rise  in  trade  imbalance.  If  we  see  Exhibit  2  we  can  see  that     In  terms  of  %  of  GDP  Portugal,  Iceland,  Greece,  Spain  and  Italy  are  having  figures   of  -­‐9.9%,  -­‐7.1%,  -­‐6.5%,  -­‐4.7%  and  -­‐3.3%  respectively.  Only  Germany  is  the   country  which  have  a  positive  trade  balance  of  6.7%  hence  is  one  of  the  strong   economy.   Third  cause  is  structure  of  Eurozone.  The  concept  of  Euro  has  structural   problems.  It  has  a  monitory  union  but  not  a  fiscal  union.  For  stability  of  a   currency  system  the  member  countries  should  follow  same  fiscal  path  but  they   have  no  common  treasury  to  enforce  them.  Each  country  is  free  to  follow  its   fiscal  policy.  It  happened  in  the  case  of  Greece,  it  was  hard  to  control  its  national   institutions.  Lack  of  quick  response,  if  any  decision  has  to  be  taken  by  Eurozone   all  17  member  countries  have  to  be  unanimous  and  this  takes  lot  of  time.  Lack  of   “Banking  Union”  common  for  Europe  to  avoid  “bank  runs”.   Fourth  cause  is  monitory  policy  inflexibility  a  member  country  cannot  print  the   money  to  pay  to  debit  holders  also  ECB  (European  Central  Bank)  has  inflation   control  mandate  not  unemployment  mandate  and  the  Loss  of  confidence  of   Investors  in  affected  countries  is  worsening  the  crisis.       1.2  Eurozone  Crisis:  Major  Attributes     Earlier  I  have  already  discussed  the  major  causes  for  the  Eurozone  crisis  now  I   will  be  doing  a  sort  of  microscopic  analysis  of  the  attributes,  which  set  these   causes.  There  are  6  attributes,  which  have  played  an  important  role  in  setting  the   causes,  which  in  turn  created  the  Eurozone  Crisis.   The  developed  economies  have  accumulated  sizeable  deficit  while  the   developing  countries  have  large  surpluses.ie.  China.  This  made  the  developing   countries  (China)  to  finance  the  developed  ones  (U.S.).    Instead  of  blaming   developing  countries  for  saving  rather  than  over  spending  developed  countries   should  learn  to  manage  their  spending’s.    Developing  countries  measure  their   creditability  by  the  amount  of  foreign  reserve  they  poses  where  else  that  is  not   the  condition  for  developed  countries.  It  appears  that  the  general  trend  was  that   if  GDP  is  sizeable  and  though  a  developed  country  is  running  on  deficient,  banks   and  investors  took  it  for  granted  before  studying  the  basics  of  investments.   There  were  different  rules  for  developed  and  developing  economies  and  this  may   be  one  of  the  attributes.     Second  attribute  is  protectionism  and  in  adequate  financial  help  to  poor   countries.  For  example  protectionism  measures  deeply  penalize  poorer   countries  that  rely  on  a  restricted  number  of  export  products  ie.  Crops  and   minerals.   Third  attribute  is  Loss  in  competitiveness,  Germany  had  improved  in   competitiveness  in  terms  of  changes  in  unit  labor  cost    but  Greece,  Portugal   Ireland,  Italy  and  Spain    lost  it.   Fourth  attribute  can  be  the  lack  of  cross  border    financial  supervision  and  lack  of   fiscal  policy  coordination.     Fifth  attribute  is  the  difference  in  productivity  among  Eurozone  countries  if  we   compare  with  GDP  per  hour  worked  we  can  see  that  countries  like  Slovakia,   Slovenia,  Portugal  and  Greeece  are  below  30  per  hour  worked  and  France,   Belgium  and  Ireland  have  50  Per  hour  worked  .  (Exhibit  3)  
  • 5. The  Eurozone  Crisis  Impact  on  Chinese  &  Indian  Economies   5     Sixth  attribute  is    the  rice  in  Gini  index  which  shows  the  income  disparity.  The   gap  between  rich  and  poor  is  increasing  the  top  five  countries  where  Gini  index   is  maximum  in  Europe  are  Portugal,  Greece,  Italy,  Spain  and  Ireland.(Exhibit  4)       1.3  Eurozone  Crisis:  Effect  on  European  Economy   The  European  economy  has  contracted  by  about  0.3%  in  2012  and  is  forecasted   to  grow  by  1%  in  2013  similarly  the  unemployment  rate  is  in  2012  is  11%  and  is   expected  to  be  10.3%  in  2013.  (Source  BBC).Bujt  one  important  factor  is  the  rise   in  unemployment  in  the  young  population  ,  it  is  at  the  highest  level.  (Exhibit  5  &   6)     1.4  Eurozone  Crisis:  Effect  on  Global  Economy     Eurozone  crisis  is  not  just  affecting  the  economies  of  the17  member  countries  or       European  countries  but  all  the  countries  from  US,  China  to  African  countries.   Eurozone  is  a  big  market  for  US,  China  and  India  the  slowdown  in  Eurozone  will   slowdown  the  economies  or  related  countries  too.  If  the  Euro  collapse  it  will  not   only  affect  322  million  Europeans  but  also  150million  African  countries  whose   currency  is  pegged  to  Euro.  Also  the  world  financial  system  will  collapse  as  many   major  banks  hold  large  amount  of  Euro.  This  may  bring  an  economic  recession   worse  than  what  world  had  experienced  in  2007.         2.1  Chinese  Economy:  Brief  Introduction     China  is  currently  is  second  largest  economy  of  world  having  a  GDP  of  11.29   Trillion  United  States  Dollars  (USD)  as  per  Purchasing  Power  Parity  (PPP).  Its   economic  reform  started  in  1978  and  since  then  it  is  progressing  with  an  average   GDP  growth  rate  of  10%.  Its  had  developed  it  self  as  the  factory  for  the  world.  If   we  consider  the    sector  wise  break  up  of  Chinese  Economy  agriculture:  10.1%,   industry:  46.8%,  services:  43.1%.  The  Industry  and  Services  are  balanced  but   agriculture  is  very  less.     Sectorwise  break-­‐up  of  Chinese   Economy   Agriculture   Industry   Services        It  has  become  an  export-­‐oriented  economy  with  surplus  in  terms  of  balance  of   payment.  It  has  a  foreign  reserve  of  more  than  3  trillion  USD.  And  it  is  forecasted   it  will  take  over  US  by  2020.   When  we  consider  China  economy  it  is  keenly  observed  &  controlled  by   government  there  are  nearly  all  large-­‐scale  business  and  banks  are  SOEs  (State                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        
  • 6. 6   The  Eurozone  Crisis  Impact  on  Chinese  &  Indian  Economies             Owned  Enterprise)  while  medium  to  small-­‐scale  industry  are  dominated  by   private  players.    Till  now  china  has  protected  its  domestic  companies  from   foreign  competitors.  China  initially  started  as  a  location  for  low  cost  labor  but   with  economic  growth  that  advantage  is  decreasing  also  the  rise  in  the  older   population  is  a  concern.  China  is  now  concentrating  its  focus  on  more  sustainable   industries  such  as  services  &  R&D.  Also  11th  5  year  plan  has  laid  emphasis  on   environmental  aspects  too.  Another  concern  for  China  is  the  rise  in  income   disparity  among  earning  population.     We  should  appreciate  the  commitment  that  the  Chinese  political  leaders  have   towards  economic  growth.  Since  1978  they  have  achieved  all  major  5  year  plan   targets.  They  have  industrialized,  developed  infrastructure  and  acquired  skill   sets  for  human  resource  for  sustaining  this  growth  weather  by  sending  people   outside  for  studies  or  by  developing  Chinese  education  system.   We  can  say  China  is  a  much  healthy  economy  as  the  government  debt  to  GDP  is   about  25%  (Exhibit  7),  Balance  of  trades  is  always  surplus  (Exhibit  8)  and  the   unemployment  rate  is  low  about  4.1%(Exhibit  9).  Another  major  challenge,   which  China  is  facing,  is  the  increasing  disparity  in  income  level.  It  has  a  GINI   index  of  45%  (0.48),  which  can  be  said  alarming.    Initially  China  approached  the   theory  of  “Let  some  people  get  rich  first”  this  has  given  rise  to  such  disparity.  The   costal  provinces  are  very  developed  as  compared  to  the  central  provinces.     The  recent  conflict  arising  with  Japan  related  to    Diaoyu  islands  may  also  slow   down  the  economy  further,  Japan  being  major  trading  partner  for  China.     2.2  Chinese  Economy:  Impact  of  Eurozone  Crisis   As  we  know  that  China  is  basically  an  export-­‐oriented  economy  and  if  we  see  the   statistics  its  major  export  partner  is  Europe,  it  accounts  of  about  17%  of  Exports   and  8%  imports.      We  can  say  the  Chinese  economy  is  highly  dependent  on  European  market.  Any   slowdown  in  Eurozone  will  affect  Chinese  economy.  We  have  seen  it  during   Eurozone  crisis  when  the  growth  rate  of  China  felled  below  8%  mark  in  months   in  2012  and  Chinese  government  has  revised  real  GDP  growth  rate  at  7.5%.         If  we  see  in  above  graph  there  is  a  significant  slowing  down  of  Chinese  economy   with  the  onset  of  Eurozone  crisis.  Also  there  is  a  problem  of  increase  in  inventory   for  goods  as  the  demand  in  EU  has  reduced  but  production  in  China  haven’t.  This   has  created  problems  for  stockiest  and  dealers.   FDI  in  China  has  also  reduced  by  3.7%  over  all  and  4.1%  from  EU  this  year  and  it   is  attributed  to  the  Eurozone  crisis.  Yuan  is  appreciating  but  there  is  no  problem   of  Unemployment  though  orders  have  reduced  and  industrial  production  has  
  • 7. The  Eurozone  Crisis  Impact  on  Chinese  &  Indian  Economies   7     slowed  down  seen  due  to  the  crisis.  Also  the  balance  of  trade  has  taken  during   start  of  2012  and  also  the  unemployment  rate  was  nearly  fixed  around  4%  mark.     2.3  Chinese  Economy:  Actions  Taken     In  order  to  fight  the  slowdown  and  to  take  advantage  of  Eurozone  crisis  China   has  taken  following  steps:   1. Focus  has  been  diverted  to  Africa  and  development  of  African  &  Emerging   economies.   2. China  is  investing  directly  or  indirectly  in  Europe  on  the  principle   “Recession  is  the  best  time  to  invest”.  China’s  direct  investment  in  Europe   soars  up  in  second  quarter  of  2012  by  more  than  67%  as  compared  to  last   year.   3. China  is  ready  to  support  or  even  bailout  countries  like  Greece  and  bailing   out  Europe  but  surprisingly  major  Chinese  are  back  away  from  European   lenders  it  appears  as  a  paradox.   4. China  has  cut  down  the  interest  rates  in  May  2012  to  boost  up  industrial   activity.     2.4  Chinese  Economy:  Suggestions     1. China  should  increase  its  domestic  consumption  for  GDP  growth  rather   than  wholly  dependent  on  exports.   2. China  should  diversify  its  exports  to  developed  as  well  as  emerging  and   underdeveloped  countries  so  that  it  can  reduce  the  risk  of  induced   economic  slowdown.  China  has  already  started  this  activity  by  focusing  on   Africa.   3. China  should  increase  its  investment  in  Europe  and  they  are  already   implementing  it.   4. China  should  try  to  stabilize  and  if  possible  bail  out  Europe  so  that  its   economic  growth  is  not  affected.   5. China  should  not  follow  the  western/European  model  of  spending  on   deficient.   6. China  should  focus  more  towards  services  rather  than  industry  as  it  is   slowly  losing  its  advantage  of  low  cost  labor  hub.       7. China  should  focus  in  reducing  its  GINI  index  of  48%  is  a  bit  high.  Chinese   government  is  already  on  action;  it  has  stopped  the  special  benefits  &  tax   holidays,  which  were  earlier  given  in  costal  provinces.  Instead  they  are   encouraging  foreign  companies  to  set-­‐up  their  plant  in  central  part  of   China  by  granting  them  special  benefits  and  tax  holidays.         3.1  Indian  Economy:  Brief  Introduction   Indian  economy  is  fourth  largest  economy  of  World  with  a  GDP  of  4.457  Trillion   USD  as  per  PPP.  After  China  it  is  Indian  Economy  on  which  on  rapid  growth   among  emerging  economies.  It  is  an  economy  based  on  services.  It  is  also  seen  as   a  lucrative  market,  which  is  highly  dynamic.  If  we  consider  the  break  up  of  Indian   Economy  sector  wise  Agriculture  is  17.2%,  Industry  is  26.4  %  and  services   constitute  56.4%.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        
  • 8. 8   The  Eurozone  Crisis  Impact  on  Chinese  &  Indian  Economies             Sectorwise  break-­‐up  of  Indian   Economy   Agriculture   Industry   Services     We  can  observe  that  the  Industry  and  services  are  not  in  balance.  It  is  becoming   a  service  hub.  Especially  IT  &  BPO  (Business  Processed  Outsourcing)  services.     India  is  facing  the  problems  of  Government  debt  and  maintains  balance  of  trade.   The  Government  debt  is  about  68.53%  of  GDP  (Exhibit  13)  and  balance  of  trade   has  always  been  in  deficit  (Exhibit  14).  Major  portion  of  import,  which  India  has,   is  crude  oil.  Even  the  foreign  reserve,  which  India  has,  is  not  too  much.  Its  about   328  billion  USD.  The  major  trade  partners  for  India  is  EU  followed  by  China.   India  has  maximum  trade  deficit  with  China.  The  unemployment  rate  has  sharply   reduced  to  3.8%  from  9.4  %(2010)  (Exhibit  15).  This  is  a  good  sign  as  the  period   of  Eurozone  crisis  when  west  is  facing  high  unemployment  rate  India’s   unemployment  rate  has  reduced  by  one  third.     If  we  consider  the  industry  structure  the  heavy  industry  are  dominated  by  SOEs   but  they  all  are  now  opened  for  domestic  private  players  so  that  the  monopoly  of   SOEs  can  be  removed  and  the  competition  will  allow  SOEs  and  private  players  to   improve.  If  we  compare  to  China,  Indian  government  supports  entrepreneurship   most,  and  then  the  JVs  with  foreign  players.  The  philosophy  behind  this  is  that  a   small  or  medium  scale  enterprise  started  by  an  entrepreneur  provides  much   more  employment,  the  profit  earned  by  that  is  distributed  to  many  individuals   rather  than  in  a  JV  where  the  share  of  profit  goes  out  to  foreign  firm.     India  is  still  relatively  closed  to  China  when  it  comes  to  FDI(Foreign  Direct   Investments)  still  there  are  many  sectors  where    FDI  is  either  restricted  or  very   less.  To  boost  its  economy  India  can  open  the  sectors  and  this  can  attract  foreign   investors.       India  has  a  major  challenge  of  keeping  economic  growth  with  politics.  As   compared  to  China  where  stern  decisions  can  be  taken  by  government  for   economic  development  of  country  in  India  this  is  not  the  same  case.  There  have   been  major  cases  for  example  the  land  acquisition  case  for  POSCO  (Korean   mining  giant)  or  opening  of  FDI  in  retail.     If  we  compare  to  GINI  index,  which  is  38%  (0.38)  for  India,  which  is  marginally   better  than,  China  but  still  it  should  be  ideally  controlled  below  35%(0.35).     3.2  Indian  Economy:  Impact  of  Eurozone  Crisis   Indian  economy  is  much  more  venerable  than  to  China  to  Eurozone  crisis.   One  of  the  reasons  is  services  sector  (IT),  which  is  concentrated  on  US  and   Europe.   Because  of  the  crisis  many  major  European  projects  have  been  paused  while  new   are  not  released.  Though  in  some  cases  Eurozone  can  be  considered  beneficial   for  India,  for  example  the  reduction  in  unemployment  rate  from  9%  to  about  3.8   %(Exhibit  15)  during  Eurozone  crisis  is  due  to  the  factor  that  many  European  
  • 9. The  Eurozone  Crisis  Impact  on  Chinese  &  Indian  Economies   9     firms  are  improving  their  bottom  line  by  cutting  down  their  expenses.  They  are   outsourcing  many  jobs  related  to  (BPO)  to  India  where  low  cost,  skilled  labor  is   available.       From  the  above  graph  we  can  see  that  the  GDP  growth  has  fallen  below  6%  mark   though  it  is  increasing  now.  Government  of  India  has  reduced  the  GDP  growth   target  for  year  2012-­‐13  from  7.5%  to  6.5  %.  This  can  be  attributed  to  the   slowdown  caused  by  Eurozone  crisis.   Europe  is  biggest  trading  partner  for  India.  With  exports  accounting  to  about   19%  and  imports  about  14%  .  Even  though  the  exports  to  EU  have  sill  been   positive  Exports  growth  30%  &  Import  Growth  16  %  approx.,  the  fear  of  crisis   deepening  threatens  India.       FDI  investment  inflow  has  increased  by  34%  this  during  year  2011-­‐12  as   compared  to  year  2010-­‐11.  Though  the  FDI  during  2011-­‐12  was  about  46.48   billion  USD  which  is  nearly  one  fourth  of  China’s  FDI  inflow.  And  the  FDI  inflow   during  first  few  months  of  year  2012-­‐13  is  19.5  billion  USD  as  compared  to  7.1   billion  dollars  last  year.  The  FDI  condition  doesn’t  look  bad  at  present  but  if  this   crisis  deepens  then  it  will  be  tough  for  India  to  attract  foreign  investors.     Meanwhile  the  FDI  outflow  towards  Europe  has  increased  specially  Indian  IT   firms.  But  still  India  is  not  figuring  among  top  10  countries  investing  in  Europe   where  else  China  is  among  them.   The  free  fall  of  rupee  against  USD  is  a  major  concern  for  Indian  Economy.  This   causes  the  Oil  deficit  for  the  country  to  pile  up.  Government  has  taken  some   stringent  actions  to  arrest  this.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          
  • 10. 10   The  Eurozone  Crisis  Impact  on  Chinese  &  Indian  Economies               3.3  Indian  Economy:  Actions  Taken   In  order  to  avoid  economic  slow  down  Indian  government  has  taken  following   steps:   1. The  export  focus  has  been  shifted  from  western  countries  to  emerging   economies.  Indian  government  encourages  domestic  companies  to  export   to  African  countries.  This  may  be  one  of  the  reasons  that  even  during  the   Eurozone  crisis  Indian  exports  are  not  hit  much.   2.  Decision  to  open  FDI  upto  51%  in  multiband  retail  is  the  way  of   government  to  attract  foreign  investors  in  India  and  ensure  that  flow  of   FDI  is  continuous.   3. Reduction  in  interest  rates.  During  February  &  March  2012  the  industrial   growth  of  India  was  at  standstill  to  boost  it  government  decreased  the   interest  rates.     4.  In  order  to  reduce  the  government  deficit  it  has  reduced  some  subsidies   on  Oil  &  Gas  products.   5. For  boosting  service  sector  government  has  encouraged  foreign  firms  to   set  up  their  R&D  facility.     3.4  Indian  Economy:  Suggestions     1. India  should  focus  on  emerging  economies  rather  than  developed   countries  for  exports  as  recent  economic  crisis  has  proved  that  western   economic  models  are  not  sustainable.   2. India  should  reduce  its  spending  as  the  deficit  in  terms  of  GDP  is  high   about  68%  though  it  is  continuously  decreasing  from  past  5  years.   3. India  should  spend  more  on  basic  like  primary  &  secondary  education   this  will  generate  more  skilled  manpower  required  for  service  sector.   4. Competitiveness  of  SOEs  should  be  improved  which  government  has   already  done  by  allowing  domestic  players  in  many  sectors  such  as   defense  production.   5. Indian  firms  should  diversify  in  Europe  as  during  recession,  as  it  is  the   right  time  to  invest  and  they  have  capital  to  invest.   6.  India  should  try  to  reduce  the  balance  of  trade  by  exporting  services  to   emerging  economies  as  well.   7. India  should  make  some  strong  laws  regarding  land  acquisition,  which  is   a  concern  for  many  FDI  investors.   8. India  should  try  to  attract  FDI  in  infrastructural  projects.     9. India  should  develop  some  alternative  such  as  biofuel,  which  can  reduce   its  dependency  on  crude  oil,  which  at  present  covers  about  40%  of  its   total  imports.   10. India  should  market  its  handicrafts,  tourism  and  traditional  medication   more  aggressively.  They  can  earn  a  lot  of  foreign  currency  and  improve   standard  of  living  of  masses,  which  in  turn  increases  domestic   consumption.   11. Sustainable  development  should  be  preferred  rather  than  the  rapid  and   unsustainable  growth.         4.1 Conclusion:   In  conclusion  I  will  like  to  say  that  Eurozone  crisis  is  the  outcome  of  an   unstable  economic  structure.  In  order  to  boost  consumption  people  and  
  • 11. The  Eurozone  Crisis  Impact  on  Chinese  &  Indian  Economies   11     government  were  encouraged  to  spend  on  credit.  And  this  credit  comes   as  a  loan  from  future  and  when  it  reaches  its  tipping  point  we  find   ourselves  in  recession.  Bubbles  are  formed  when  virtual(fake)  demands   are  created  for  short  period  of  time  these  bubbles  can  act  as  a  catalyst  but   they  always  burst  into  recessions.   Hence  I  would  say  for  a  sustainable  development  should  always  take  the   middle  path,  which  is  also  said  as  the  “Mean  way”  according  to   Confucianism.  Eastern  economies  still  follow  the  same  and  now  its  again   the  west  looking  towards  east  for  solutions  and  the  sustainable  structure   of  economy.  Savings  may  be  a  new  term  for  west  but  it  is  built  in  value  in   eastern  culture.  I  still  regard  Korean  model  of  development  much  better   than  the  western  model.  Collectivism  is  any  day  better  than  individualism   otherwise  we  will  be  seeing  “Occupy  Wall  Street”  movements  and   economic  crisis  very  often.    I  think  this  is  the  right  juncture  to  think  and  act,  when  the  fast   developing  economies  should  come  out  from  the  rat  race  of  GDP  growth   but  focus  on  sustainable  development.  One  of  the  reasons  that  India  and   China  were  not  hit  much  in  previous  recession  was  because  they  had   taken  the  “Mean  way”  for  economic  liberation.     -­‐-­‐<>-­‐-­‐                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      
  • 12. 12   The  Eurozone  Crisis  Impact  on  Chinese  &  Indian  Economies             Exhibit  1         Exhibit  2            
  • 13. The  Eurozone  Crisis  Impact  on  Chinese  &  Indian  Economies   13     Exhibit  3   GDP  per  Hour  worked  2008         Exhibit  4   Gini’s  Coefficient  (as  %)               Exhibit  5              Unemployment  in  EU                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        
  • 14. 14   The  Eurozone  Crisis  Impact  on  Chinese  &  Indian  Economies                   Exhibit  6            Unemployment  Young  population                  Exhibit  7              China  Government  Debt  to  GDP.           Exhibit  8              China  Balance  of  Trade  
  • 15. The  Eurozone  Crisis  Impact  on  Chinese  &  Indian  Economies   15         Exhibit  9   China  Unemployment  rate     Exhibit  10                Trade  of  Goods  EU  with  China                        Exhibit  11                Trade  of  Services  EU  with  China                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        
  • 16. 16   The  Eurozone  Crisis  Impact  on  Chinese  &  Indian  Economies                   Exhibit  12              FDI  EU  with  China       Exhibit  13                India  Government  debt  to  GDP  (%).         Exhibit  14                India  Balance  of  Trade  
  • 17. The  Eurozone  Crisis  Impact  on  Chinese  &  Indian  Economies   17     Exhibit  15                  India  unemployment  rate   Exhibit  16                  Trade  of  Goods  EU  with  India       Exhibit  17                Trade  of  Services  EU  with  India                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        
  • 18. 18   The  Eurozone  Crisis  Impact  on  Chinese  &  Indian  Economies                                            Exhibit  18                  FDI  with  India  by  EU.                                            
  • 19. The  Eurozone  Crisis  Impact  on  Chinese  &  Indian  Economies   19       Bibliography     1. The  Lessons  of  the  Eurozone  Crisis  that  should  shape  the  EUs  G20  Stand   by  Yannos  Papantoniou  Former  Economy  &  Finance  Minister  of  Greece.   2. The  Euro  Debt  Crisis  and  Its  Impact  on  the  World  By  Julian  Knight   3. BBC  Business   4. Eurostat     5. Market  watch   6. Financial  news   7. WTO   8. www.tradingecomomies.com   9. The  Economic  Times   10. www.publicserviceeurope.com   11. Wikipedia