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Crime Risk Forecasting and Predictive Analytics - Esri UC

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Presentation at the 2011 Esri User Conference that included an overview of HunchLab features related to forecasting, specifically near repeat forecasts and load forecasts.

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Risk Forecasting & Predictive Analytics HunchLab Research Update Robert Cheetham [email_address] @rcheetham Michael Urciouli [email_address]
Philadelphia Police Department ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Who is Azavea? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
10% Research Program Pro Bono Program Time-to-Give-Back Program Employee-focused Culture Projects with Social Value
[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Dashboard
Space + Time
Space + Time
Animation
Early Warning & Notification
 
Risk Forecasting
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
Near Repeat Pattern
Contagious Crime? ,[object Object],[object Object]
What Do We Mean By Near Repeat? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Near Repeat Pattern Analysis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Near Repeat Pattern Analysis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Near Repeat Pattern Analysis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Near Repeat Pattern Analysis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Near Repeat Pattern Analysis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Near Repeat Pattern Analysis
Online Version
Near Repeat Pattern Analysis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Jerry Ratcliffe Temple University
Cyclical Patterns
Improving CompStat ,[object Object]
What Do We Mean By Load Forecasting? ,[object Object],bit.ly/gorrcrimeforecastingpaper Measure cyclical patterns Identify non-cyclical trend Forecast expected count +
Cyclical Forecasting ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Cyclical Forecasting
Cyclical Forecasting
Cyclical Forecasting
Cyclical Forecasting
Cyclical Forecasting ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Cyclical Forecasting ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Cyclical Forecasting bit.ly/gorrcrimeforecastingpaper Measure cyclical patterns Identify non-cyclical trend Forecast expected count +
Cyclical Forecasting
Cyclical Forecasting
Cyclical Forecasting
Cyclical Forecasting
How Do We Know It Works? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Ongoing R&D
Research Topics ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Research Topics ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Acknowledgements ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Upcoming Conferences ,[object Object],[object Object]
Many Thanks! © Photo used with permission from Alphafish , via Flickr.com
Questions Michael Urciouli [email_address] @rcheetham

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Crime Risk Forecasting and Predictive Analytics - Esri UC