Peter Harrison - Behavior Change: 5 things that work

1. Ask the Easy Questions
BAQMAR 2015 | Peter Harrison

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Behavioural economics
grew out of a
dissatisfaction with the
disconnect between
economic theory and
psychology / reality
Where did behavioural economics come from?

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Econs | Humans
What is behavioural economics?

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It’s useful to understand WHY
But it can be misleading to ask “WHY…?”

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Which of the following are reasons why you don’t
buy [product x]? / Which is the main reason?
Which of these words best describe your attitudes
towards [category]
Why marketing needs behavioural science

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Why marketing needs behavioural science
“…because it is the most powerful search engine”

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Why marketing needs behavioural science

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Why marketing needs behavioural science
“…because it is the most effective at cleaning”

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Why marketing needs behavioural science

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Researching Humans

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Learning to Catch
“When a man throws a ball high in the air and
catches it again, he behaves as if he had solved a
set of differential equations in predicting the
trajectory of the ball. He may neither know nor
care what a differential equation is, but this does
not affect his skill with the ball. At some
subconscious level, something functionally
equivalent to the mathematics calculations is
going on.”
Richard Dawkins, A Selfish Gene

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The Gaze Heuristic
Fix your gaze on the ball, start running, and
adjust your running speed so that the angle of
the gaze remains constant
Learning to Catch
Source: Gird Gigerenzer, Gut Feelings, 2015

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Which election candidate looks the most competent?
Source: Todorov, Mandisodza, Goren & Hall, Inferences of Competence from Faces Predict Election Outcomes, Science, 2005.

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Which election candidate looks the most competent?
73% 73% 69%
2000 2002 2004
50% line –
equivalent to
chance
Proportion of most ‘competent’
candidate winning the Senate seat
Source: Todorov, Mandisodza, Goren & Hall, Inferences of Competence from Faces Predict Election Outcomes, Science, 2005.

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Which city has the larger population?
A Detroit
B Milwaukee
American
students
German
students
60% 100%
40% 0%
Source: Goldstein & Gigerenzer, 2002

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Recognition heuristic: If you recognise the name
of one city but not that of the other, then infer
that the recognised city has a larger population
Source: Gigerenzer, Gut Feelings, 2015

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“The answer to an
easy question (How
do I feel about it?)
serves as an answer
to a much harder
question (What do I
think about it?)”

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How much would you contribute to
save an endangered species?
How happy are you with your life
these days?
How much should financial
predators who prey on the elderly
be punished?
Hard and easy questions
How much emotion do I feel when I
think of dying dolphins?
What is my mood right now?
Hard Questions (System 2) Easy Questions (System 1)
How much anger do I feel when I
think of financial predators?
Source: Thinking, Fast and Slow, Kahneman, 2011

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So what are the easy heuristic questions that matter for brands?

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Our Model
Fame
Feeling Fluency

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The Behavioural and Marketing Sciences Tell Us…
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FAME
If a brand comes
readily to mind, it’s
a good choice
FEELING FLUENCY

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FAME:
Availability heuristic
The more easily something is
recalled from memory the better
/ more important it is perceived
Think of as many cola brands as
you can

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The Behavioural and Marketing Sciences Tell Us…
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FAME FLUENCYFEELING
If I feel good about a
brand, it’s a good choice

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FEELING
Affect heuristic
The more positively we feel towards
something the better we think it is

26. ©BrainJuicer® 26Twitter: @Peter_Harrison 1Le Trefle ‘Emma’

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The Behavioural and Marketing Sciences Tell Us…
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FAME FEELING FLUENCY
If I recognise a brand
quickly, it’s a good choice

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FLUENCY:
Fluency heuristic
The more easily something is
processed the better it is
assumed to be

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Fame
FluencyFeeling
Fame
FluencyFeeling
Fame, Feeling and Fluency | The Difference Between Small and Big Brands
Fame, Feeling and Fluency Percentiles
Fame
Feeling
Fluency
Small Brands Medium Brands Big BrandsFame
FluencyFeeling
Small : Market Share up to 7% Medium: Market Share >7% < 15% Big: Market Share >15%

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Fame
FluencyFeeling
Fame, Feeling and Fluency | How Brands Grow and How Brands Decline
Fame, Feeling and Fluency Percentiles
Fame
Feeling
Fluency
Growing Stable Declining
Fame
FluencyFeeling
Fame
FluencyFeeling
Growing : >+2% Stable: +2% to -2% Declining: <-2%

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The questions people ask themselves are more
insightful than the questions researchers tend to
ask them
Behavioural economics helps us to catch up