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GEN 315 Week six chapter 19 ppt lecture
1.
Chapter 19 Economic Growth,
Productivity, and Living Standards © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. Authorized only for instructor use in the classroom. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
2.
© 2019 McGraw-Hill
Education. 2 Learning Objectives 1. Show how small differences in growth rates can lead to large differences in living standards. 2. Explain why GDP per capita is the product of average labor productivity times the proportion of the population employed and use this decomposition to discuss the sources of growth. 3. List the determinants of average labor productivity within a particular country and use these concepts to analyze per capita GDP differences across countries. 4. Identify the costs of increasing economic growth. 5. Evaluate government policies that promote economic growth. 6. Analyze whether having finite resources implies that there are limits to growth.
3.
© 2019 McGraw-Hill
Education. 3 Benefits of Growth In the late 18th and early 19th century • Life expectancy was 40 years • Most families had 2 or 3 children die • Nothing moved faster than the speed of a horse • The best highway was from Boston to New York • A stagecoach made the 175-mile trip in 3 days Pace of technical change is accelerating • Inventions are not sufficient to create growth • Products must be commercialized and sold
4.
© 2019 McGraw-Hill
Education. 4 Living Standards Use an economic model to study the remarkable rise in living standards • Real GDP per person is a measure of the goods available to a typical person One clue to growing prosperity in the 20th century – GDP per person in 2010 was 12 times greater than it was in 1870 Comparisons across long periods are complicated by lack of data • The variety, quantity, and quality of goods increased enormously in the 19th and 20th century
5.
© 2019 McGraw-Hill
Education. 5 Real GDP per Person, 1870-2010 (in US Dollars)
6.
© 2019 McGraw-Hill
Education. 6 Real GDP per Person, 1870 - 2010 Country 1870 1913 1950 1980 1990 2010 US $2,445 $5,301 $9,561 $18,577 $23,201 30,491 UK 3,190 4,921 6,939 12,931 16,430 23,777 Germany 1,839 3,648 3,881 14,114 15,929 20,661 Japan 737 1,387 1,921 13,428 18,789 21,935 China 530 552 448 1,061 1,871 8,032 Brazil 713 811 1,672 5,195 4,920 6,879 India 533 673 619 938 1,309 3,372 Ghana 439 781 1,122 1,157 1,062 1,922
7.
© 2019 McGraw-Hill
Education. 7 Growth of Real GDP per Person, 1870 - 2010 Country Annual % Change 1870 – 2010 Annual % Change 1950 – 2010 Annual % Change 1980 - 2010 US 1.8% 2.0% 1.7% UK 1.4 2.1 2.1 Germany 1.7 2.8 1.3 Japan 2.5 4.1 1.6 China 2.0 4.9 7.0 Brazil 1.6 2.4 0.9 India 1.3 2.9 4.4 Ghana 1.1 0.9 1.7
8.
© 2019 McGraw-Hill
Education. 8 Compound Interest Rates In 1870, China’s output per person was about 120% that of Ghana’s • By 2010, China had more than 4 times that of Ghana’s • China’s growth over the period was 2.0% and Ghana's was 1.1% Compound interest pays interest on the original deposit and all previously accumulated interest • Interest paid in year 1 earns interest in year 2 • $10 deposited at 4% interest in 1815 is $25,507.50 in 2015 • $10 x (1.04)200 = $25,507.50
9.
© 2019 McGraw-Hill
Education. 9 Compound Interest Differences in interest rates matter Interest Rate (%) Value of $10 after 200 years 2 $524.85 4 $25,507.50 6 $1,151,259.04 Growth rates in GDP per capita have the same effect as interest rates • Relatively small growth in GDP per capita has a very large effect over a long period In the long run, the growth rate of an economy matters
10.
© 2019 McGraw-Hill
Education. 10 Years to Double Useful formula to approximate the number of years it takes an initial amount to double Given some annual interest rate Years to double = 72 / interest rate If the interest rate equals 2% then it takes 36 years for your money to double If GDP grows at 3% then it takes 24 years for GDP to double Growth rates matter
11.
© 2019 McGraw-Hill
Education. 11 Real GDP per Capita Notation • Y = real GDP • N = number of people employed • POP = population Y Y N POP N POP GDP per capita is the product of output per worker and the share of the total population that is working Consumption per person depends on • How much each worker produces and • The share of people working
12.
© 2019 McGraw-Hill
Education. 12 Understanding Growth1 GDP per capita increases when • Output per worker (Y / N) increases OR • The share of the population employed (N / POP) increases Between 1960 and 2016, • GDP per capita increased 200% • Output per worker increased 133% • The share of the population employed increased from 36% to about 48% • Larger working age population • Increase in female labor force participation
13.
© 2019 McGraw-Hill
Education. 13 U.S. Real GDP per Person and Average Labor Productivity, 1960-2016
14.
© 2019 McGraw-Hill
Education. 14 U.S. Population Employed and Labor Force Participation Rate, 1960-2016
15.
© 2019 McGraw-Hill
Education. 15 Understanding Growth2 In the long run, increases in output per person and hence living standards arise primarily from increases in average labor productivity
16.
© 2019 McGraw-Hill
Education. 16 Determinants of Average Labor Productivity U.S. average labor productivity is • 24 times that of Indonesia • 53 times that of Bangladesh Six factors determine average labor productivity 1. Human capital 2. Physical capital 3. Land and other natural resources 4. Technology 5. Entrepreneurship and management 6. Political and legal environment
17.
© 2019 McGraw-Hill
Education. 17 #1 Human Capital Human capital comprises the talents, education, training, and skills of workers • Human capital increases workers' productivity Germany and Japan used human capital to rebuild after World War II • Professional scientists and engineers • Apprentice and on-the-job training emphasized • Japanese increased emphasis on early education Cost – Benefit Principle applies to building human capital • Premium paid to skilled workers
18.
© 2019 McGraw-Hill
Education. 18 #2 Physical Capital More and better capital increases worker productivity Candy factory owner employs two people and adds capital • Each machine requires one dedicated operator Number of Machines Output per Week Hours Worked per Week Candies per Hour Worked 0 16,000 80 200 1 32,000 80 400 2 40,000 80 500 3 40,000 80 500 More capital increases output per hour Diminishing returns to capital
19.
© 2019 McGraw-Hill
Education. 19 Diminishing Returns to Capital Diminishing returns to capital occurs if an addition of capital with other inputs held constant increases output by less than the previous increment of capital • Assumption: all inputs except capital are held constant • Result: output increases at a decreasing rate When a firm has many machines, the most productive uses have already been filled • The increment in capital will necessarily be assigned to a less productive use than the previous increment • Principle of Increasing Opportunity Cost
20.
© 2019 McGraw-Hill
Education. 20 Growth and Diminishing Returns to Capital Implications of diminishing returns • Increasing capital will increase output and labor productivity • Positive contribution to growth • There are limits to increasing productivity by adding capital because of diminishing returns
21.
© 2019 McGraw-Hill
Education. 21 #3 Land and Other Natural Resources Inputs other than capital increase worker productivity • Land for farming • Farmers are less than 3% of the population and they supply the US and export the surplus • Manufacturing requires raw materials and energy • Resources can be obtained through international markets • Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore and Switzerland have high levels of GDP per capita with a limited resource base
22.
© 2019 McGraw-Hill
Education. 22 #4 Technology New technologies are the single most important source of productivity improvement Technical change can affect industries beyond the primary application • Transportation expanded markets for farm produce • Medicine • Communications • Electronics and computers
23.
© 2019 McGraw-Hill
Education. 23 Productivity Puzzle U.S. labor productivity grew 2.5% from 1948 – 1973 • Slowed to 1.1% from 1973 – 1995 • Resurgence to 2.4% between 1995 – 2000 • 1.5% 2000-2007 and 1.0% 2007-2016 Slow-down remains a mystery • Since 2010, remains to be seen if this is a temporary effect of the last recession or the beginning of a new period of productivity slowdown. Growth since 1995 is largely attributed to information and communications technologies making workers more productive • Growth seen in industries that produce these technologies and industries that use them • Slower growth in sectors that do not use these technologies
24.
© 2019 McGraw-Hill
Education. 24 #5 Entrepreneurship and Management Entrepreneurs create new economic enterprises • Essential to a dynamic, healthy, growing economy Examples • Henry Ford and mass production • Bill Gates and standardized graphical user interface operating system • Larry Page and Sergey Brin and Google's search Policies should channel entrepreneurship in productive ways • Taxation policy and regulatory regime • Value innovation
25.
© 2019 McGraw-Hill
Education. 25 Medieval China Sung period (960 – 1270 AD) was technically sophisticated • Paper • Gunpowder • Water wheels • Compass? Economic stagnation followed • Social system limited entrepreneurship • Emperor retained property rights to business • Seizure possible without notice Scientific advances alone do not ensure technical change and growth
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Education. 26 #6 Political and Legal Environment Encourage people to be economically productive Well-defined property rights are essential • Who owns what and how those things can be used • Reliable recourse through courts Maintain political stability Promote free and open exchange of ideas
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Education. 27 Costs of Economic Growth Increasing the capital stock will increase GDP Opportunity cost of producing more capital goods is • Fewer consumer goods • People may be willing to forego present consumption to have more in the future • Reduced leisure time • Possible risks of health and safety from rapid capital production • The cost of research and development (R&D) to improve technology • The cost of education to develop and use new capital
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Education. 28 Promote Growth with Human Capital Governments support education and training programs • U.S. public education support extends from kindergarten through institutions of higher learning • Head Start program for pre-school children • Job training and retraining programs Government pays because education has externalities • A democracy works better with educated voters • Progressive taxes capture some of the higher income • Increases chances of technical innovation • Poor families could not pay
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Education. 29 Promote Growth with Savings and Investment Government policies can encourage new capital formation and saving in the private sector • Individual Retirement Accounts (IRAs) are an incentive for individuals to save • Government periodically offers investment tax credits Government can invest directly in capital formation • Construction of infrastructure such as roads, bridges, airports, and dams • US interstate highway system reduced costs of transporting goods, making markets more efficient
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Education. 30 Promote Growth with R&D Support Research and development promotes innovation • Some types of research, such as basic science, create externalities that a private firm cannot capture • Silicon chip • Fund basic science with National Science Foundation (NSF) and other government grants Government sponsors research for military and space applications • Government owns GPS satellites Maintain political and legal framework to support growth
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Education. 31 Promoting Economic Growth in Least Developed Prescription for more human and physical capital is broadly correct • Appropriate technology and education Most countries need institutions to support growth • Corruption creates uncertainty about property rights and drains financial resources out of the country • Regulation discourages entrepreneurship • Taxes discourage risk-taking • Markets do not function efficiently • Lack of political stability discourages foreign investment
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Education. 32 Limits to Growth Can growth be sustained? • Depletion of some natural resources • Environmental damage and global warming Computer models suggested growth is not sustainable • Did not adequately treat new and better products • Greater income can pay for better environmental quality • Ignored the market's response to increasing scarcity • High prices trigger a response • Strong response to energy crisis in mid 1970s Government action needed in case of externalities
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Education. 33 Economic Growth
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