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mLab
Southern Africa
9 February 2012
Ben Zaaiman
mLab’s Purpose
   The mLab
    encourages and
    supports mobile
    innovators &
    entrepreneurs to
    grow their ideas to
    full impact.
   The mLab advocates
    for and supports the
    use of the mobile
    channel in service
    delivery.

                           2
mLab’s Doors Have Been Open
Since August 2011




                              3
4
Mobile Has Become the Dominant
ICT Client




                      The Economist – 8 Oct 2011



                                                   5
6
(Smartphone Sales in the U.S.)




                                 7
Nokia & Samsung Ship the Bulk of
  Phones in the World
Global Shipments Q4 2011
                           Nokia
                            26%

                  Other
                   42%


      Apple LG             Samsung
       6%   5%               21%
                           Research & Markets – Jan 2012

                                                           8
Global Revenue is Split Between
Apple, Samsung, Nokia




                                  9
Apple Takes 75% of Global Profit




                               10
Why?




       11
Multisided Markets Drive
Monetisation Strategy

                Users




        Data
       Miners   You      Advert-
                          isers




                Deve-
                lopers


                                   12
Facebook Didn’t Make Billions
Charging Users
        U.S. Share of Time Spent on Platform Sites
         AOL   Microsoft   Yahoo!   Google   Facebook
50.0%
45.0%
40.0%
35.0%
30.0%
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
 5.0%
 0.0%
        Q1:08
        Q2:08
        Q3:06
        Q4:06
        Q1:07
        Q2:07
        Q3:07
        Q4:07



        Q3:08
        Q4:08
        Q1:09
        Q2:09
        Q3:09
        Q4:09
        Q1:10
        Q2:10
        Q3:10
        Q4:10
        Q1:11
        Q2:11
        Q3:11
                                                        13
14
Somebody is Going
to Make BIG Money
in This Industry...




                      15
Products




              Enterprise      Consumer
               Solutions        Apps

Contracting                               Proprietary



               Mobile         Consumer
              Marketing        Services



                       Services


                                                        16
The Start-Up Pyramid

           Scale

         Optimize            Monetisation
                               Strategy
        Economics

          Promise          Minimum Viable Product
                            for “Must-Haves”


    Product / Market Fit         40% of Big Market

                               Source: Marc Andreessen
                                                         17
mLab Mobile App Monetisation
Framework




                               18
Number of Apps in iTunes Store
(April 2011 - 30 Months after Start)

350 000

300 000

250 000

200 000
                                                                  Free
150 000                                                           Paid

100 000

 50 000

       0
                      iPhone           iPad
                                        Ben Lorica: O’Reilly Research, 2011
                                                                         19
Games Dominate the Industry
      % Games in All-Time Rankings of iTunes Store
60%

50%

40%

30%                                                          iPhone
                                                             iPad
20%

10%

0%
        Top 100       Top 1 000     Top 10 000
                                      Ben Lorica: O’Reilly Research, 2011
                                                                       20
Sturgeon’s Law Also Applies to the
iTunes Store




                                     21
22
But You Should Find Out Pretty
Quickly if You Have a Hit
   Median Days From Launch to Hit Top 200 Lists
                    iPhone       iPad
                                                    14



                      9
      7
           5
                             4              4




    Top Paid      Top Grossing           Top Free
                                        Ben Lorica: O’Reilly Research, 2011
                                                                         23
And Not Many are Long-Term Hits
    Hits That Spend 30+ Days on Top 200 Lists
                   iPhone       iPad

    24%            24% 24%
          21%

                                         16%
                                                  14%




    Top Paid     Top Grossing           Top Free
                                       Ben Lorica: O’Reilly Research, 2011
                                                                        24
Price Range Explanation
Number of Apps




                                    Median




                 25% Cheapest                Middle 50%    25% Most Expensive



                                2     3                   12                price
                                                                                    25
Price Ranges for successful iPhone
Apps in Each Category
              (Range Bars Exclude
     25% Cheapest & 25% Most Expensive Apps)
10
 9
 8
 7
 6
 5
 4
 3
 2
 1
 0




                                 Ben Lorica: O’Reilly Research, 2011
                                                                  26
Price Ranges for successful iPad
Apps in Each Category
              (Range Bars Exclude
     25% Cheapest & 25% Most Expensive Apps)
10
 9
 8
 7
 6
 5
 4
 3
 2
 1
 0




                                 Ben Lorica: O’Reilly Research, 2011
                                                                  27
Consolidate Free and Paid Apps
Through In-App Purchases
 Virtual goods / freemium /
  subscriptions
 Freemium model, e.g. allowing the
  user to unlock premium features
  from within the app
 Key benefits of this:
    ◦ Demo to pay engagement model;
    ◦ Develop a single app;
    ◦ Market a single app (climb up charts with
      single app).

                                              28
Free Apps Are Well-Represented
Among Top-Grossing Lists
      % of Free Apps in Top-Grossing Category
                      iPhone    iPad

                     36%


                               25%
                                                         21%
   15% 14%                           16%
                                                   10%
                8%



  Top 200      News            Games             Social
  Grossing                                     Networking
                                           Ben Lorica: O’Reilly Research, 2011
                                                                            29
30
31
Ben Zaaiman
Join Us!   www.mlab.co.za
           ben@mlab.co.za
           +27 83 448 4336
                    BZaaiman




                               32

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mLab Southern Africa Mobile Innovation Report

  • 2. mLab’s Purpose  The mLab encourages and supports mobile innovators & entrepreneurs to grow their ideas to full impact.  The mLab advocates for and supports the use of the mobile channel in service delivery. 2
  • 3. mLab’s Doors Have Been Open Since August 2011 3
  • 4. 4
  • 5. Mobile Has Become the Dominant ICT Client The Economist – 8 Oct 2011 5
  • 6. 6
  • 7. (Smartphone Sales in the U.S.) 7
  • 8. Nokia & Samsung Ship the Bulk of Phones in the World Global Shipments Q4 2011 Nokia 26% Other 42% Apple LG Samsung 6% 5% 21% Research & Markets – Jan 2012 8
  • 9. Global Revenue is Split Between Apple, Samsung, Nokia 9
  • 10. Apple Takes 75% of Global Profit 10
  • 11. Why? 11
  • 12. Multisided Markets Drive Monetisation Strategy Users Data Miners You Advert- isers Deve- lopers 12
  • 13. Facebook Didn’t Make Billions Charging Users U.S. Share of Time Spent on Platform Sites AOL Microsoft Yahoo! Google Facebook 50.0% 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Q1:08 Q2:08 Q3:06 Q4:06 Q1:07 Q2:07 Q3:07 Q4:07 Q3:08 Q4:08 Q1:09 Q2:09 Q3:09 Q4:09 Q1:10 Q2:10 Q3:10 Q4:10 Q1:11 Q2:11 Q3:11 13
  • 14. 14
  • 15. Somebody is Going to Make BIG Money in This Industry... 15
  • 16. Products Enterprise Consumer Solutions Apps Contracting Proprietary Mobile Consumer Marketing Services Services 16
  • 17. The Start-Up Pyramid Scale Optimize Monetisation Strategy Economics Promise Minimum Viable Product for “Must-Haves” Product / Market Fit 40% of Big Market Source: Marc Andreessen 17
  • 18. mLab Mobile App Monetisation Framework 18
  • 19. Number of Apps in iTunes Store (April 2011 - 30 Months after Start) 350 000 300 000 250 000 200 000 Free 150 000 Paid 100 000 50 000 0 iPhone iPad Ben Lorica: O’Reilly Research, 2011 19
  • 20. Games Dominate the Industry % Games in All-Time Rankings of iTunes Store 60% 50% 40% 30% iPhone iPad 20% 10% 0% Top 100 Top 1 000 Top 10 000 Ben Lorica: O’Reilly Research, 2011 20
  • 21. Sturgeon’s Law Also Applies to the iTunes Store 21
  • 22. 22
  • 23. But You Should Find Out Pretty Quickly if You Have a Hit Median Days From Launch to Hit Top 200 Lists iPhone iPad 14 9 7 5 4 4 Top Paid Top Grossing Top Free Ben Lorica: O’Reilly Research, 2011 23
  • 24. And Not Many are Long-Term Hits Hits That Spend 30+ Days on Top 200 Lists iPhone iPad 24% 24% 24% 21% 16% 14% Top Paid Top Grossing Top Free Ben Lorica: O’Reilly Research, 2011 24
  • 25. Price Range Explanation Number of Apps Median 25% Cheapest Middle 50% 25% Most Expensive 2 3 12 price 25
  • 26. Price Ranges for successful iPhone Apps in Each Category (Range Bars Exclude 25% Cheapest & 25% Most Expensive Apps) 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Ben Lorica: O’Reilly Research, 2011 26
  • 27. Price Ranges for successful iPad Apps in Each Category (Range Bars Exclude 25% Cheapest & 25% Most Expensive Apps) 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Ben Lorica: O’Reilly Research, 2011 27
  • 28. Consolidate Free and Paid Apps Through In-App Purchases  Virtual goods / freemium / subscriptions  Freemium model, e.g. allowing the user to unlock premium features from within the app  Key benefits of this: ◦ Demo to pay engagement model; ◦ Develop a single app; ◦ Market a single app (climb up charts with single app). 28
  • 29. Free Apps Are Well-Represented Among Top-Grossing Lists % of Free Apps in Top-Grossing Category iPhone iPad 36% 25% 21% 15% 14% 16% 10% 8% Top 200 News Games Social Grossing Networking Ben Lorica: O’Reilly Research, 2011 29
  • 30. 30
  • 31. 31
  • 32. Ben Zaaiman Join Us! www.mlab.co.za ben@mlab.co.za +27 83 448 4336 BZaaiman 32