Harvard Global Case Competition - Miami University
BorgWarner Inc.
1. Important disclosures appear on the last page of this report.
The Henry Fund
Henry B. Tippie School of Management
Benjamin Martin [Benjamin‐martin@uiowa.edu]
BorgWarner, Inc. (BWA) March 31, 2016
Consumer Discretionary – Automobile Parts Manufacturers Stock Rating Buy
Investment Thesis Target Price $70 ‐ $76
The Buy rating given to BorgWarner is based on a discounted cash flow model
and a holding period of 3 – 5 years. This recommendation reflects our view
that the company has a solid position in technology that reduces emissions and
improves fuel economy. In addition, they are making investments in
hybrid/electric engine technology, which is anticipated to be an important
segment of the auto market in coming years.
Drivers of Thesis
Increasingly strict emissions regulations and zero‐emission vehicle
mandates in several US states are driving demand for more fuel efficient
vehicles.
Increased adoption of turbocharger technology is expected to benefit
BorgWarner’s engine segment. Currently, turbocharger sales are expected
to grow in the neighborhood of 8% per year.
The 2015 acquisition of Remy International positions BorgWarner to gain
from an acceleration in demand for hybrid electric vehicles.
Low oil prices typically provide a boost to the global auto market.
Risks to Thesis
Lower GDP per Capita expectations for China and the other BRIC nations
has weighed heavily on shares.
Only a small portion of total automotive sales are expected to come from
electric vehicles until at least 2020.
Oil & gas prices have different effects depending on the region of the world
and may not be as relevant in certain markets
Additionally, low oil and gasoline prices may cause some consumers to lose
interest in hybrid/electric vehicle technology, pressuring sales in the near
term.
Henry Fund DCF $76.90
Henry Fund DDM $32.63
Relative P/E $40.12
Price Data
Current Price $38.40
52wk Range $27.68 – $62.70
Consensus 1yr Target $41.53
Key Statistics
Market Cap (B) $7.65
Shares Outstanding (M) $224.4
Institutional Ownership 96.6%
Five Year Beta 1.75
Dividend Yield 1.59%
Est. 5yr Growth 10.7%
Price/Earnings (TTM) 12.93
Price/Earnings (FY1) 12.11
Price/Sales (TTM) 1.0
Price/Book (mrq) 2.2
Profitability
Operating Margin 11.7%
Profit Margin 7.6%
Return on Assets (TTM) 7.6%
Return on Equity (TTM) 16.7%
Earnings Estimates
Year 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E
EPS $2.73 $2.89 $2.72 $2.90 $3.37 $3.87
growth 23.0% 5.9% ‐5.9% 6.5% 16.5% 14.6%
12 Month Performance Company Description
BorgWarner, Inc. is a global supplier of
automotive components for powertrain
applications such as turbochargers and automatic
transmissions. The company operates primarily as
a Tier 1 supplier to many of the major global
automotive original equipment manufacturers,
with Ford & Volkswagen comprising 15% each. In
2015, approximately 75% of revenue was
generated outside of the United States. China is
currently BorgWarner’s most important growth
market, averaging 25% annual growth over the
last five years.
12.1
16.7
7.3
11.1
26.4
7.1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
NTM P/E ROE EV/EBITDA
BWA Auto Parts: OEM
‐80%
‐60%
‐40%
‐20%
0%
M A M J J A S O N D J F
BWA S&P 500
Source: Yahoo Finance
2.
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
BorgWarner has managed to carve out a respectable stake
in the global auto parts supply industry. By focusing on
improving fuel economy and reducing emissions output in
the vehicles they supply BorgWarner managed to weather
the storm of the financial crisis and build a business that is
even stronger than before. Over the last five years, this
focus has allowed them to grow total revenue at more
than double the rate of global auto production, the
underlying driver of demand at the company. Going
forward, stricter fuel economy standards and emissions
regulations, combined with a couple other broad auto
trends, should allow BorgWarner to continue to grow their
top line around 5% per year out to 2020 compared to auto
production growth of 3.7% over that same time period.
However, this expectation comes with more than a few
risks. Of the most significant is a further slowdown in
China. Over the last 30 years, the world’s second largest
economy has been able to achieve incredible growth, the
result of a highly subsidized, export driven economy.
However, as they begin to shift towards a more
sustainable model built on domestic consumption, growth
is expected to slow. In 2015, the impact of these lower
growth estimates triggered a correction among parts
suppliers with significant exposure in that region, including
BorgWarner.
While this news is certainly something to keep an eye on,
the underlying drivers of growth are still intact and the
company is well positioned relative to their competitors. It
is for these reasons that we believe the worst is behind us
and a Hold rating is recommended.
COMPANY DESCRIPTION
BorgWarner is classified as a Tier 1 auto parts supplier,
meaning that the majority of their products are sold
directly to the original equipment manufacturers (OEMs).
Many of the company’s products are aimed at increasing
fuel efficiency and reducing vehicle emissions. These
products include turbochargers, timing systems, emissions
systems, thermal systems, various mechanical/electrical
components for automatic transmissions and, as of 2015,
hybrid electric motors. Approximately 95% of
BorgWarner’s revenue is generated by direct sales to
OEMs, with the remaining 5% coming from distributors of
aftermarket replacement parts.
As a result of the demand for more fuel efficient vehicles,
BorgWarner’s sales of turbochargers, which help boost
engine power while improving fuel economy and reducing
emissions, grew to 31% of total revenue in 2015.
The company reports in two segments, Engine and
Drivetrain, and has operations all over the world.
Light
Vehicles
84%
Commercial
Vechicles
7%
Off‐Highway
4%
Aftermarket
5%
2015 Sales by Product Line
Source: BWA 2015 10‐k
ForecastHistorical
3.
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Engine
BorgWarner’s Engine segment produces turbochargers,
timing systems, emissions systems, thermal systems,
thermostats, and diesel cold start/gasoline ignition
technology. These products all help vehicles run more
efficiently and with fewer carbon emissions. At a high
level, demand for these types of products is driven by
global automobile production. Going forward, growth in
this segment will be influenced by two factors: global auto
production and growth in turbocharger sales. Based on
estimates by IHS Automotive and
PricewaterhouseCoopers, auto production is anticipated
to grow at an average annual rate of 3.7% out to 2020.
Sales of turbochargers are expected to grow at nearly
double this rate, or 8% annually, driven by stricter fuel
economy and emissions standards.
Drivetrain
BorgWarner’s Drivetrain segment designs and
manufactures two broad types of products: mechanical
products (friction plates, clutch modules, torque
management products, etc.) for automatic transmissions
and rotating electrical components (starter motors,
alternators, & hybrid electric engines) for light and
commercial vehicles. While operating margins are lower
than in the Engine segment, Drivetrain has made some
significant progress overseas through a combination of
joint ventures and acquisitions. One recent example is the
acquisition of Remy International, which added several
models of hybrid electric motors to BorgWarner’s product
line‐up. However, hybrid/EV engines are only a small part
(~$14 million in 2015) of segment revenue. As a result, we
have modeled Drivetrain revenue growing at an annual
rate of 3.7%, approximately in‐line with global auto
production.
Customers & Geography
Two OEMs, Ford and Volkswagen, both account for
approximately 15% of BorgWarner’s total revenue. As a
result, BorgWarner’s results are highly influenced by auto
activity in both the United States and in Germany.
In 2015, the United States regained the lead from
Germany as BorgWarner’s most important individual
country, the result of lower sales to Volkswagen following
the highly publicized emissions scandal at the German
auto manufacturer late last year.
However, Europe as a whole still accounted for 44% of
total sales, demonstrating the importance of international
markets to overall results. Sales in China grew an
impressive 14% and finally surpassed the $1 billion mark.
BorgWarner entered the Chinese market in 2005 when
their Japanese joint venture, NSK‐Warner, opened their
first production facility in Ningbo. China is a key market in
the company’s global growth plan and, since 2010, has
averaged 25% annual revenue growth.
United
States
25%
Germany
23%
Hungary
6%
France
4%
Other
Europe
11%
South
Korea
9%
China
13%
Other
Foreign
8%
BWA Sales by Geography ‐
2015
Source: BWA
2015 10‐k
4.
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Growth
Despite volatility in the year‐over‐year growth rate,
BorgWarner has managed to increase their revenue from
~$4.5 billion to just over $8 billion since 2006, a 6.4%
annual growth rate over that time. Key drivers of revenue
growth over the last 10 years have been a recovery in light
vehicle sales following the Great Recession and the
growing market for turbocharger technology that has
resulted from a renewed focus on greater fuel economy
and tougher emissions regulations. M&A has also played a
part in fueling growth. In 2015, the ‐3.4% decline in
revenue was partially the result of tougher end market
conditions and partially the result of a stronger US dollar.
2016 revenue is forecasted to grow 18.1% before
moderating to an annual rate of 4.6% ‐ 5.7%. The large
jump in 2016 is the result of fully incorporating Remy
International’s business. Ex. Remy, BorgWarner’s top line
is forecasted to grow 5.1% in 2016.
Earnings are a similar story to revenue. While they took a
few years to recover to prerecession levels, BorgWarner’s
2015 results saw EPS growing at a 4.4% annual rate since
2006. Following a 22% jump in 2016, EPS growth is
forecasted to slow to 8.9% in 2020.
Profitability
Despite a slight decline in revenue and earnings during
2015, BorgWarner managed to maintain both their gross
and operating margins. On their 2015 conference call,
management attributed this to the flexibility of their
workforce, 10% ‐ 20% of which is temporary, which allows
the company to quickly adjust to changing market
conditions. Additionally, BorgWarner’s net profit margin
posted a slight decline, the result of higher interest
expense related to debt issued during the year to pay for
acquisitions and share repurchases. Going forward, we
model BorgWarner’s expenses to be consistent with levels
seen over the last five years, resulting in stable margins in
the forecast period.
5.
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Leverage & Liquidity
As we can see in the chart above, BorgWarner has typically
maintained a debt‐to‐equity ratio between 1x and 1.4x,
which is pretty reasonable given the industry average of
2.3x. However, in 2015 the company made the decision to
issue approximately $1 billion in debt in order to fund
acquisitions and share repurchases. BorgWarner currently
has about $900 million of their debt coming due over the
next five years, with almost half ($441 M) in 2016. We
expect that the company should have no trouble making
this payment and will continue to reduce their debt to
more normal levels in the coming years.
RECENT DEVELOPMENTS
VW Emissions Scandal
Late in Q3 2015, German automaker Volkswagen became
embroiled in a scandal when the US Environmental
Protection Agency (EPA) discovered that certain VW cars
had been sold with modified software that was designed
to fool emissions tests. Installed in an approximate 11
million vehicles worldwide, the software allowed VW
diesel cars to pass US emissions tests while emitting up to
40 times the nitrogen oxide pollutants that are allowed
under the current law. Within four days, VW’s stock had
lost over a third of its value and CEO Martin Winterkorn
had resigned. In addition to the reputational damage, the
financial consequences associated with a broad recall and
potential fines could be in excess of $18 billion.
While scandals of this nature are not typically devastating
on an industry level, the individual companies involved are
usually punished as competitors seize on an opportunity
to grab market share. The situation is no different this time
as several rival automakers have begun to offer aggressive
discounts in Germany in order to capitalize on VW’s
current weakness. As a result of these efforts, VW’s market
share in the EU region has declined to 11.7% from 13% a
year ago16
.
These results are particularly concerning for BorgWarner
as VW is one of their largest customers, accounting for
15% of 2015 revenue. However, once we put these events
in perspective, is not likely that this scandal will have a
dramatic, long‐term impact on BorgWarner’s business17
.
While Volkswagen’s sales are still posting declines (1.3% in
Q1 2016), the rate of decline is slowing. In regards to
BorgWarner, only about 4% of revenue is generated from
light diesel vehicle components sold to Volkswagen and
just 0.5% of revenue came from affected vehicles. In
addition, no BorgWarner part is involved in any recall
solution. Also, a possible bright spot from these events is
that it has allowed regulators to renew their focus on
tighter emissions standards, which bodes well for
BorgWarner’s turbocharger business.
Acquisition of Remy International
In November 2015, BorgWarner closed the $1.2 billion
acquisition of Remy International, a manufacturer of
alternators, starters, and hybrid electric motors18
. The
acquisition was paid for through a combination of cash and
debt and was made in order to strengthen BorgWarner’s
fuel‐saving product offerings and begin to build a position
in hybrid/electric technology. While the market for electric
vehicles is still relatively small and not expected to grow
Source: BWA 10‐k
Source: Yahoo Finance
Sept. 18,2015
Violation notice issued
by EPA
6.
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significantly until 2020 or later3
, the market for alternators
should continue to grow as auto manufacturers continue
to add more sophisticated electrical components to their
cars. Additionally, one of Remy’s key products includes
start‐stop technology, which cuts the car’s engine while
stopped, reducing idle time and improving fuel efficiency
by an estimated 3% ‐ 12%20
. This market, which can be
viewed as an intermediate step on the way to full electric
vehicles, is expected to double to approximately 41.1
million units by 201820
.
Our model assumes the acquisition will add approximately
$1.06 billion in revenue in 2016 and that Remy’s business
lines will grow in‐line with industry trends. According to
management, the company is also expected to achieve
about $15 million in cost savings once the companies are
fully integrated (estimated to happen in 2017)21
.
2015 Financial Results
2015 was a challenging year for BorgWarner. While shares
of their stock were initially buoyed by positive results in
2014, they began to plateau after the company reported
first quarter earnings results. Reported earnings were
$0.78/share, below consensus and guidance of $0.841
.
Attributing the results to mild weakness in Asia and North
America, management went on to state that the issues
were expected to be temporary and left their full‐year
guidance unchanged22
. However, the situation
deteriorated further in the second quarter when the
company reported a second earnings miss. Citing weaker
than expected light vehicle production growth in China
and a weak global market for commercial vehicles,
management lowered their full year 2015 guidance to a
range well below consensus23
. Up until this point, 2015
consensus estimates had been revised down
approximately 8%. In the two weeks following Q2
earnings, estimates came down another 8% and shares
sold off 10%1
. Just when BorgWarner’s stock was looking
like it was stabilizing, the Volkswagen emissions scandal
broke, sending the stock down another 12% over the next
four days.
By Q3 it looked like expectations had been appropriately
set, leading to the first earnings beat of the year1
.
However, another round of lowered guidance (driven by
weaker market conditions in China and in the commercial
vehicle market) sent the stock down 10% the day of the
announcement. While BorgWarner’s shares recovered
most of the post‐Q3 loss by the end of 2015, the stock fell
nearly 17% during the first week of 2016, largely the result
of broad market turmoil. Then, on January 13, the impact
of the overall market weakness was exacerbated by the
issuance of initial 2016 guidance that was again below
consensus25
. Shares hit a low of $28.23 on January 25 (‐
33%) following the subsequent downward revisions in
earnings.
Since then, the outlook for BorgWarner’s shares has
improved. Q4 and FY 2015 earnings beat the revised
consensus expectations and the initial 2016 guidance,
which is now in‐line with consensus, was reaffirmed26
. All
that is left is to wait and see if management can deliver on
these expectations and begin to rebuild the trust of
shareholders.
INDUSTRY TRENDS
There are currently several industry trends playing out that
have the potential to benefit BorgWarner’s business.
Increased regulation and shifting consumer preferences
have led automakers to focus on improving the fuel
economy of their vehicles. This has led to an increase in
turbocharged vehicle sales, a trend that is expected to
accelerate out to 2020. Furthermore, anticipated declines
in the cost of electric vehicles are expected to significantly
increase their market share over the next couple decades,
which has the potential to benefit companies who are
making investments in the technology now.
CAFE and ZEV Mandates
Originally developed in 1975 as a response to the Arab oil
embargo, the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE)
standards require that automakers produce vehicles that
meet increasingly stringent fuel economy targets. The
program is administrated by the National Highway Traffic
Safety Administration (NHTSA) and has been reasonably
Low High Model
Revenue ($B) 9.08$ 9.49$ 9.48$
EPS 3.11$ 3.32$ 3.32$
Operating Margin 11.4% 12.0% 11.7%
Source: BWA Investor Relations
2016 Guidance (issued 1/13/16)
7.
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successful since its inception with the average MPG of new
passenger cars rising from 24.3 in 1980 to 36.4 in 20146
.
Currently, the standards require the collective auto fleet
to be able to achieve 49.6 MPG by 20257
. Although
automakers are fighting to weaken the standards, the
amount of political will behind these standards make it
unlikely that they will achieve any significant reduction.
While the CAFE standards are the federal government’s
attempt to reduce dependency on fossil fuels and improve
the fuel economy of cars, several states are taking things
one step farther. First enacted in 1990 as a response to the
poor air quality in Los Angeles, the California Air Resources
Board (CARB) began requiring that a certain percentage of
all automobiles delivered in the state be “zero‐emission”,
in other words, an automobile that emits no pollutants or
has zero impact on the environment. While the program
initially implemented a fixed percentage system, pressure
from the automakers has led the state to adopt a credit
based system that allows manufacturers a little more
flexibility in their ability to meet the ZEV requirements8
.
Currently, there are 9 additional states that have adopted
California’s ZEV standards (Connecticut, Maine, Maryland,
Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode
Island, and Vermont) and three that have adopted the less
stringent Low Emission Vehicle (LEV) program
(Washington, Delaware, and Pennsylvania)9
.
As the standards required by these programs ramp up,
automakers are increasingly turning to technology that
improves the fuel efficiency and reduces the emissions
output of their vehicles. This is very positive for
BorgWarner given their product portfolio.
Rise of Hybrid/Electric Cars
Over the last several years, the popularity of electric
vehicles (EVs) has increased as consumer preferences have
begun to shift towards more fuel efficient vehicles. As
options for EVs become more readily available, an
increasing number of consumers have shown a willingness
to adopt the technology. Evidence for this trend can be
seen in the 2015 sales numbers, where an estimated
462,000 EVs were sold, an increase of 60% over 20143
.
However, this does not mean that the world is ready to
turn its back on conventional internal combustion engines
(ICE) just yet. Two of the largest current headwinds include
the low price of oil/gas and the total cost of ownership.
While oil and gas prices are not expected to remain at
current levels forever (the EIA expects oil prices to recover
to about $50 in 2017 and gradually trend higher out to
20404
), their current depressed levels have raised doubts
in some consumer’s minds over the real benefits of owning
an electric vehicle. Additionally, hybrid/electric vehicles
typically cost several thousand dollars45
more than
traditional vehicles and the payback period can range
between 8 and 15 years in some cases5
, largely due to the
cost of the lithium‐ion batteries used in these cars. The
cost for these batteries has already declined significantly
Source: California Air Resources Board
8.
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over the last few years (65% since 2010) and is expected
to continue to fall going forward. By 2030, EV battery costs
are expected to decline to $120 per kilowatt hour (kWh)
from their current level of $350 per kWh3
.
Until oil prices start to rise again and until battery
technology becomes cheaper, it is expected that
traditional automobiles will maintain their total cost of
ownership advantage and electric vehicles will comprise
less than 5% of total auto sales. However, this advantage
is expected to deteriorate in the mid‐2020’s and the mass
adoption of EVs is expected to drive total market share up
to 35% in 2040. Not coincidentally, this is also in line with
the higher ZEV requirements outlined in the previous
section.
Increasing Adoption of Turbocharger
Technology
As mentioned above, electric vehicles are slated to
become an increasingly important segment of the total
automotive fleet (read: good for BorgWarner’s Drivetrain
segment). However, their adoption is expected to be
gradual and take several decades. Meanwhile, CAFE
standards require that automakers make consistent
progress towards higher levels of fuel economy, leading
automakers to seek out technology that can help them
achieve this goal. Currently, one of the most popular
products for doing so is the turbocharger, which works by
compressing the air flowing into the engine thereby
allowing more fuel to be injected and increasing the power
output. The end result is significantly increased
horsepower without an increase in engine weight, leading
to an increase in fuel economy.
These benefits have led most major auto manufacturers to
adopt the technology and the current expectation is that
this trend will continue. A 2015 report by Honeywell (a
competitor to BorgWarner) predicts that 47% of all
vehicles sold will include turbochargers with the most
pronounced increases in North America and China10
.
MARKETS AND COMPETITION
Automotive Supplier Overview
The Auto Parts and Equipment industry is a sub‐
component of the broader Auto Parts industry. Companies
in this industry typically generate most of their revenues
by supplying products to automotive original equipment
manufacturers (OEMs) who then integrate their products
into the complete automobile. Suppliers can be grouped
into three categories: Tier 1 (T1) suppliers sell assembled
components and systems directly to OEMs; Tier 2 (T2)
suppliers sell parts to be incorporated into T1 products (i.e.
ball bearings, gears, etc.); and Tier 3 (T3) suppliers process
raw materials (steel, aluminum, etc.) which are then sold
to T2 suppliers. These suppliers typically have had very
little bargaining power due to the high number of suppliers
and relatively few buyers. Among the three tiers, T1
suppliers typically have the most bargaining power due to
their direct relationship with the OEMs. This is expected to
persist in the future as the OEMs consolidate their supplier
base47
.
Companies in the auto parts supplier industry supply a
wide variety of parts to OEMs. Products in this industry can
Sales of Turbocharged Vehicles % of Total
Region 2015 2020 E
North America 23% 39%
China 28% 47%
Europe 69% 73%
India 43% 48%
Japan 22% 27%
Korea 48% 53%
South America 20% 30%
Forecasted Auto Fleet Mix
2015 ‐ 2040
Source: Honeywell
Legend
ICE – Internal Combustion Engine
HEV – Hybrid Electric Vehicle
BEV – Battery Electric Vehicle
PHEV – Plug‐in Hybrid Vehicle
9.
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be grouped into several categories including electrical &
electronic components, steering & suspension, exhaust
systems, brake systems, auto body parts & wheels, HVAC
parts, airbags, filters, radiators, & other components.
A breakdown of industry products by type is shown in the
following table27
.
Demand for these products is driven by global automotive
production as more parts are required during periods
where OEMs are producing more vehicles. Ultimately,
demand for automobiles is influenced by several
macroeconomic factors including GDP growth, consumer
spending, wage/disposable income growth, employment
levels, and interest rates. Due to the global nature of the
industry, the economic situations in North America,
Europe, and the BRIC nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China)
tends to be the most influential. Currently, auto
production is expected to grow about 3.3% annually to just
under 108 M units by 202044
.
To a lesser extent, demand is also influenced by the
production mix. In periods of economic stability and rising
incomes, demand for more expensive trucks and luxury
cars is boosted and suppliers’ margins may realize a slight
expansion.
Automotive parts are manufactured from a wide variety of
raw materials and, as a result, profitability can be affected
by volatile commodity prices. Major industry inputs
include steel, copper, aluminum, and plastic resins. While
a limited amount of hedging takes place to help alleviate
these costs, suppliers will usually try to pass through any
material increase in raw material costs to the OEMs.
However, suppliers are rarely successful in these efforts
and it is considered unlikely that increases in the cost of
materials will be recouped.
Basis for Competition
Being a mature industry with a high number of companies
(800+)31
, competition in auto parts supply is intense.
Several factors influence the competitive environment
including:
Many suppliers, few buyers – While there well over
1,000 global parts suppliers, there are only around 50
significant manufacturers of automobiles39
. As a result, a
large portion of supplier’s revenue comes from only one
or two OEMs. The implication of this imbalance is that the
OEMs have a very large influence on how products are
priced and typically demand annual price decreases from
their suppliers. This puts a huge amount of pressure on
supplier margins and leads to price‐based competition.
Company Major Customers % of 2015 Revenue
BorgWarner Volkswagen, Ford 30%
Delphi General Motors 14%
TRW* Volkswagen, Ford, Fiat 58%
*Pre‐acquisition 2014 revenues
*Source: BorgWarner, Delphi, TRW Automotive annual reports
Product
Turbochargers
BorgWarner
Honeywell
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries
Cummins
Bosch
IHI
Emissions systems
Mahle
T. RAD
Pierburg
NKG
BorgWarner
Denso
Bosch
Eldor
Thermal Systems
BorgWarner
Iwis
Tsubake Group
Denso
Schaeffler Group
Chassis Systems
Advics
JTEKT
Nexteer
ZF Group/TRW
Bosch
Continental AG
Safety Systems
Key Safety
Takata
ZF Group/TRW
Autoliv
Electronics
Delphi
Denso
Magna
Bosch
Autoliv
Continental AG
Infotainment
Mitsubishi Electronics
Aisin Seiki
Delphi
Harman
Denso
Alpine
Bosch
Panasonic
Continental AG
Visteon
Competitors
Source: Automotive News – 2014 Top Suppliers Report
Automotive Suppliers Product
Categories & Competitors
10.
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Multiple competitors in every product category – A
number of different companies are competing in each area
of the industry, requiring investment in R&D in order to
stay on the cutting edge and continue to secure design
wins. A few examples of major product categories and
their competitors are listed in the table on the prior page28
.
Success Factors
Among some of the major global suppliers, total revenue
growth is expected to be in the low single‐digits (roughly
in‐line with auto production) and the high degree of
competition has whittled net profit margins down to about
5%40
. The degree of success that companies in this industry
realize depends on a few different factors including:
Degree of Globalization – Driven by the global expansion
of OEMs, auto parts suppliers who can capitalize on
opportunities in foreign markets will typically enjoy a
larger degree of success. For example, among the top 100
global OEM parts suppliers, almost every single one
generates a significant amount of revenue in North
America, Europe, and Asia. An important component of
this factor includes outsourcing manufacturing operations
to areas where they can be utilized in the just‐in‐time
manufacturing operations of the OEMs. Currently, some of
the best positioned companies in this region are
Continental AG, Delphi Automotive, Autoliv, BorgWarner,
and Bosch.
Investments in R&D – Successful companies need to
invest sufficient capital into research and development in
order to stay ahead of the technology curve and continue
to secure design wins and supply contracts. In 2015, top
spenders on R&D included Continental AG, Autoliv,
WABCO Holdings, Allison Transmission, and BorgWarner.
Effective cost controls – As the industry becomes
increasingly global and as new, low‐cost, regional suppliers
enter the market (particularly in China), success may come
down to who can operate more efficiently. In addition,
many OEMs demand annual price reductions from their
suppliers, further pressuring margins and placing an
emphasis on efficient operations. Based on 2015 results,
some of the companies who are executing successfully in
this area are BorgWarner, Delphi Automotive, Continental
AG, and Hyundai Mobis.
Recent Developments in Automotive Supply
Increased Globalization & OEM Portfolio Rationalization
The financial crisis of 2008 had a devastating impact on the
auto industry, particularly in the United States. Light
vehicle sales declined from 16.2 million in 2007 to a low of
10.1 million in 2009 (‐38%)29
and many major OEMs were
on the verge of bankruptcy.
Ultimately, the American manufacturers were saved by
the actions of the US government who, through an $80
billion dollar investment, effectively saved the industry
from collapse. In the aftermath of these events, the both
Chrysler and General Motors (GM) implemented
significant restructuring programs in an attempt to restore
profitability and return to growth. In addition to reducing
their labor force and cutting benefits, the US automakers
eliminated several lines of vehicles in order to focus
exclusively on their most popular and highest margin
brands. For example, GM effectively reduced the number
of brands carried by 50% by terminating their Pontiac,
Saturn, Hummer, and Saab brands while retaining
Chevrolet, Cadillac, Buick, & GMC due to their popularity
in the US and abroad. Also, while the Detroit 3 (Ford, GM,
Chrysler) shuttered domestic assembly plants and
increased the capacity utilization of the ones that remain
in an attempt to grow profits at a more sustainable rate,
foreign‐headquartered auto manufacturers moved their
production facilities to the US. In turn, the US automakers
have started major pushes into foreign markets,
particularly Europe and the BRIC nations.30
This trend has significant implications for the auto parts
supply industry. Namely, as part of their cost reduction
efforts, OEMs are demanding more from their suppliers.
These demands require that the suppliers produce not just
parts, but entire systems or modules (i.e. an entire
11.
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interior). The pressure to meet these expectations is even
greater as foreign suppliers enter the market.
Industry Consolidation
In order keep pace with the global growth strategies of
their biggest customers, auto parts suppliers are also
expanding their operations overseas, primarily through
the acquisition of smaller, regional companies. In addition,
as the major OEMs continue to consolidate their supplier
base, T1 suppliers are buying up smaller competitors to
increase their product offerings and hopefully regain some
bargaining power.
Source: PwC Automotive
In 2015, auto parts suppliers closed over 200 deals for a
total of about $48 billion31
, marking six consecutive years
of increased M&A activity. However, it is worth noting that
$29 billion of that value is the result of Johnson Controls
spin‐off of their auto interiors business34
. Excluding that
transaction, the total would be a more on‐trend $19
billion. Popular targets for acquisition include producers of
powertrain components (particularly ones that help
improve fuel economy), technology for connected
vehicles/autonomous driving, and infotainment products.
There were a number of acquisitions in 2015 that are
consistent with these trends. Examples include:
On November 10, 2015 BorgWarner closed the $1.2
billion acquisition of Remy International in a bid to
enter into the hybrid/electric motor market and
further establish themselves as a leader in fuel
economy18
.
In May 2015, German auto supplier ZF Friedrichshafen
(ZF Group) acquired TRW Automotive, a leader in
active and passive safety systems32
. In July, the new
combined company demonstrated their Highway
Driving Assist system which is designed to assist
drivers through automatic steering, braking,
acceleration, and lane maintenance while on the
highway33
.
In 2015, it was announced that Johnson Controls
would spin‐off their auto interior business and merge
with a Chinese supplier. Named Adient, the new
company is expected to have about 15% market share
in the auto interior market34
.
Also in 2015, Harman International Industries, Inc.
paid about $950 million to acquire two automotive
infotainment systems companies (Symphony Teleca
and Red Band Software, Inc.). The pair of acquisitions
are expected to accelerate growth in Harman’s
infotainment and navigation product line up35
.
Peer Comparisons
The table on the next page shows a few operating metrics
for some of the larger automotive parts suppliers.
Going forward, the companies that are likely to
outperform are those that position themselves to take
advantage of the long‐term trends currently playing out in
the auto industry (fuel efficiency, hybrid/electric vehicles,
interconnected vehicles, autonomous vehicles, active
safety) as well as companies who are executing on the
success factors mentioned in the previous section (global
presence, investment in R&D, cost controls). In addition,
companies with the financial strength to make acquisitions
are likely will likely realize the highest growth rates and be
less risky in times of global economic uncertainty. Based
on these factors some of the best positioned companies
are:
Honeywell International Inc. – Supplies parts and
equipment (aircraft engines, power systems, electronics,
etc.) to the aerospace industry; manufacturers
turbochargers for autos; provides products and services
(heating/cooling, ventilation, lighting, etc.) for homes,
commercial buildings, and industrial facilities; provides
process technology for the production of petroleum
products; and produces high performance chemicals and
materials. While they do operate in the auto space, the
majority of their revenue comes from their other business
lines, possibly explaining their above average
performance.
12.
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Cummins Inc. – Manufacturers and services diesel
engines, turbochargers, filtration systems, and various
other control systems for the commercial truck industry.
Unlike most of the other companies on this list, Cummins
focuses almost exclusively on the commercial vehicle
market, which operates on a different cycle and may be
influencing their 2015 results.
WABCO Holdings Inc. – Produces braking systems,
transmissions, suspensions, and electronics systems for
commercial trucks and buses. Like Cummins, WABCO
focuses their efforts on the commercial vehicle market.
Allison Transmission Holdings Inc. – Manufacturers a
variety of different transmission products for the
commercial vehicle and defense industries. One possible
reason that the company had a 2015 gross margin well
above the entire peer group could be that they only have
2,700 total employees vs. an average of 16,500 for other
companies with $2 billion ‐ $6 billion in revenue last year.
(For reference, these companies report their direct labor
expenses as a part of their cost of sales).
ZF Friedrichshafen – Doesn’t have the strongest margins
and leverage is a little high but their recent acquisition of
TRW Automotive leaves them well positioned within
autonomous driving/active safety.
Company Market Cap 2015 Revenues Gross Margin Net Margin Debt/Equity P/E
Honeywell International Inc 83,202 38,581 30.7% 12.4% 1.66 17.5
NSK Ltd. (Japan) 56,032 8,125 23.1% 6.4% 1.47 108.5
Johnson Controls Inc 24,613 37,179 17.3% 4.2% 1.86 15.7
Mitsubishi Electric Corp. 23,188 36,032 29.9% 5.4% 1.20 11.9
Continental AG (Germany, Fed. Rep.) 20,733 41,942 25.1% 6.9% 1.83 7.2
Delphi Automotive Plc 19,852 15,165 19.9% 9.6% 4.32 13.7
Cummins, Inc. 17,823 19,110 25.9% 7.3% 1.04 12.7
Magna International Inc. 16,852 36,641 13.7% 5.1% 1.09 9.0
Denso Corp. (Japan) 15,861 35,921 17.6% 6.0% 0.59 7.4
JTEKT Corp 13,944 11,302 15.0% 3.1% 1.38 39.3
Aisin Seiki Co., Ltd. 11,398 24,704 14.0% 2.6% 1.52 17.7
Autoliv Inc. 9,912 9,170 20.1% 5.0% 1.18 21.7
Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. 8,748 16,443 26.0% 1.9% 3.19 28.5
Lear Corp. 8,117 18,211 10.0% 4.1% 2.21 10.9
BorgWarner Inc 7,652 8,023 21.2% 7.6% 1.49 12.6
WABCO Holdings Inc 5,609 2,628 29.9% 10.5% 2.29 20.4
Allison Transmission Holdings Inc 4,344 1,986 47.0% 9.2% 2.71 23.8
Visteon Corp. 2,833 3,245 13.3% 70.4% 3.43 1.2
Tenneco Inc 2,738 8,209 16.6% 3.0% 8.16 11.1
Faurecia S.A. (France) 2,431 22,887 8.3% 0.9% 4.30 12.1
Dana Holding Corp 1,951 6,060 14.0% 2.6% 4.94 12.3
NTN Corp. (Japan) 1,786 5,850 18.8% 3.3% 2.49 9.2
Calsonic Kansei Corp 1,340 8,048 8.2% 2.1% 1.31 8.0
American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Inc 1,174 3,903 16.3% 6.0% 9.62 5.0
Metaldyne Performance Group Inc 984 3,047 16.9% 4.1% 3.99 7.9
Meritor Inc 736 3,505 13.2% 1.8% ‐4.27 11.5
Takata Corp 734 5,358 16.3% ‐4.6% 2.23 N/A
TS Tech Co., Ltd. Private 3,620 16.1% 5.1% 0.60 N/A
Mando Corp Private 5,357 14.4% 3.2% 2.07 N/A
Mahle GmbH (Germany) Private 12,460 21.6% 2.7% 2.42 N/A
ZF Friedrichshafen AG (Germany) Private 22,384 16.8% 3.5% 2.07 N/A
Hyundai Mobis Co Ltd (South Korea) Private 33,073 14.3% 9.5% 0.69 N/A
Bosch (Robert) GmbH (Germany Fed. Rep.) Private 59,500 34.7% 4.9% 1.19 N/A
Averages 19.6% 4.9% 2.31 13.9
Source: Mergent Online
Note: Average net margin excludes results from Visteon (large gain
from discontinued operations) and average P/E excludes NSK.
13.
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BorgWarner Inc. – Strong position in turbocharger
technology and hybrid/electric vehicles, above average
margins, and reasonable leverage.
Continental AG – Has a presence in hybrid/electric
vehicles, autonomous driving, active safety, and
connectivity, strong margins, and reasonable leverage.
Autoliv – Presence in active safety, strong margins, and
reasonable leverage.
Mitsubishi Electric Corp. – Various fuel efficiency
products, strong margins, and low leverage.
Robert Bosch GmbH – Bosch is the world’s largest
automotive parts supplier. Their core products include
electrical components, starters, and steering systems.
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
The automobile sector is highly cyclical and is typically
strongest during times of stable economic growth and
growing consumer wealth. In 2015, 61% of BorgWarner’s
revenue came from three countries: the United States,
Germany, and China. Underlying demand is driven by
automobile production which is, in turn, driven by auto
sales. Additionally, factors such as real GDP growth,
interest rates, income/employment levels, and global oil
prices can be very influential as well.
United States
In the United States, auto sales are typically the best
during stable periods of real GDP growth. In 2008, auto
sales suffered a steep decline as unemployment spiked
and consumers lost access to credit. Since then, sales have
recovered to higher levels than ever. Going forward, the
CBO projects that real GDP will grow between 1.8% and
2.5% out to 202048
. Accordingly, IHS Automotive expects
auto sales in the US to grow 1.8% in 201611
.
Another important factor for the auto industry is growth
in wages and employment. One of the concerns raised in
recent years is that the rate of wage growth has been
subdued since by post‐recession standards. Looking at the
chart below, we can see that this certainly was the case for
several years. However, national wage growth has since
recovered and has been growing right in line with the
average rate observed over the last 30 years.
Similar to the wages story, there has been some concern
that the labor market is not as strong as it should be.
However, despite this concern, the US unemployment has
recovered substantially since the Great Recession and
currently stands at 4.9%. The Henry Fund team is currently
optimistic on employment and expects this rate to hold
steady over the next two years. While the official
unemployment rate does not tell the complete story, the
results are encouraging as they are far from levels that
would seriously impair demand for automobiles.
14.
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Germany
German light vehicle sales have exhibited volatility similar
to the US market, with steep declines following the global
financial crisis. Additionally, their recovery has been
subdued as Europe as a whole has faced persistent
problems with certain regional players (Greece, etc.).
Currently, the outlook for German real GDP is relatively
positive. After a weak showing in 2012 and 2013, growth
in real GDP recovered to a stable 1% ‐ 2% in 2014 and 2015.
The World Bank is currently forecasting that these levels
hold out to 2018. While Germany is exposed to more risk
from their exposure to the uncertainty facing Europe as a
whole, this is relatively in‐line with historical averages and
is likely to be a positive for autos.
As in the United States, the German labor market has
mounted a significant recovery since 2007, falling from a
peak of 9.6% to 4.3% as of January 2016. In addition to low
unemployment, the total number of people employed
reached the highest levels since German reunification.
Despite some weakness in manufacturing, higher labor
force participation and the immigration of foreign workers
have helped keep the labor market strong12
.
China
As BorgWarner’s most important growth market, the
economic outlook in China is particularly important. Over
the last 30 years, China’s export driven economy has been
able to achieve incredible levels of growth due in part to
large government investments in the manufacturing
sector. However, realizing this path is not sustainable
forever, the government has begun to deliberately shift
their economy towards a domestic consumption and
services driven model. While many agree that this shift is
long overdue, the downside is lower growth going
forward. Currently, growth in real GDP is projected to slow
to 6.5% over the next five years, down from 7% ‐ 10% in
2010 – 201413
. Ultimately, this shift should be a positive for
the world’s second largest economy, but it will likely
Source: International Organization of Motor Vehicle
Manufacturers
15.
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continue to cause some turbulence in financial markets as
market participants adjust to this new reality.
Chinese light vehicle registrations grew 7% in 2014 and
4.7% in 201539
. While 2016 expectations were initially cut
to 4.5% ‐ 5%, recent data has indicated that the auto
market in China is not as weak as the downward revisions
in GDP would suggest. Last month, the 2016 forecast was
raised to 6%51
, in‐line with recent growth.
Global Oil Prices
Beginning in June 2014, an abundance of supply and
subdued demand has sent the price of WTI oil tumbling
from over $100/barrel to less than $30, a level many never
expected to see again. Currently, many industry experts
are beginning to adopt the stance that prices will remained
low for the foreseeable future and the Henry Fund team
agrees. The majority of our analysts expect oil to remain in
the $40 ‐ $50 range over the next two years. Additionally,
the average price of gasoline in the U.S. has fallen 20% in
the last year alone14
. This action effectively increases the
disposable income of consumers and is typically good for
auto sales. Assuming a sustained drop in prices does not
spark a recession, these lower gas prices and the greater
levels of purchasing power among consumers should be a
positive for the auto industry.
CATALYSTS FOR GROWTH
At the end of the day, demand for BorgWarner’s products
is driven by global automobile production and sales. A few
factors that may influence production in the future
include:
GDP growth in North America, Europe, and BRIC
nations
Oil and gas prices
Specific trends relevant to BorgWarner include:
Increased adoption of turbocharger technology driven
by tighter regulations on automakers
Production mix of traditional internal combustion
engines and hybrid/electric vehicles
INVESTMENT POSITIVES
Strong position in turbocharger production. This
should benefit BorgWarner as increasingly strict fuel
economy standards begin to take effect.
Acquisition of Remy International gives BorgWarner a
foothold in the production of hybrid/electric vehicles,
one of the biggest trends currently facing the auto
industry.
Source: International Organization of Motor Vehicle
Manufacturers
16.
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Joint ventures in China give BorgWarner access to an
important growth market.
Low oil prices typically increase the demand for
automobiles.
INVESTMENT NEGATIVES
Slower growth expectations in China may continue to
weigh on shares.
Hybrid/EV market is still in its infancy and is expected
to make up less than 5% of total auto production until
2020. This forecast may be pushed out by a few years
if oil and gas prices remain low longer than expected.
VALUATION
The target price range for BorgWarner of $70 ‐ $76 is
based on a discounted cash flow valuation model.
Furthermore, based on our 2016 earnings forecast and a
set of comparable companies, we see a price floor in the
neighborhood of $43.
Revenue
The most important fundamental factor in DCF model is
the revenue forecast. At BorgWarner, revenue was divided
into three segments: engine, drivetrain, and Remy.
Engine Segment
Revenue in the engine segment is forecasted to grow
between 5.4% in 2016. Growth should improve to 6.2% in
2018 as auto production picks up slightly before
moderating back down to 5.6% in 2020. This forecast is
driven by two factors: global light vehicle production and
growth in turbocharger revenue.
Global Light Vehicle Production ‐ Estimates from IHS
Automotive and PricewaterhouseCoopers indicate that
global light vehicle production is expected to increase
between 3.2% and 4.7% over the 2016 – 2020 period.
Turbochargers ‐ Data from competitor Honeywell
indicates that the total market for turbochargers should
grow about 8% annually out to 202010
.
Drivetrain Segment
The drivetrain segment is currently forecast to grow at a
3.6% CAGR out to 2020, in‐line with global auto
production. This is due to a lack of any specific product (i.e.
turbochargers) that may drive outperformance.
Remy International
Revenues from the Remy acquisition are anticipated to
grow at a 4% CAGR out to 2020. While this segment will be
incorporated into the drivetrain segment in the future, we
view it as prudent to forecast revenues separately for the
time being. For the model, this segment was divided into
four sub‐segments: commercial vehicle, aftermarket,
original equipment, and hybrid/electric engines.
Commercial Vehicle – Revenues are forecasted to grow in‐
line with the IHS Automotive forecast for global
medium/heavy trucks. Currently, the forecast calls for
3.3% growth in 2016 which moderates to 1.5% in 2020.
Aftermarket – Currently forecasted to grow 6% in each
year out to 2020. This is based on comments from some of
the larger retailers of aftermarket parts.
Original Equipment – Forecast to grow in‐line with global
light vehicle production.
Hybrid/Electric Engines – This is the smallest but fastest
growing segment of Remy. While hybrid/EV engines only
generated $14.2 million in revenue in 2015, a KPMG survey
of auto industry executives indicated that this will be the
fastest growing segment of the auto market going
forward. Consistent with this expectation, we have
modeled hybrid/EV revenue growing 16.1% in 2016, which
moderates down to 4.1% by 2020.
Key Expenses and Margins
There are three key expenses that have a significant
impact on the valuation of BorgWarner: Cost of Goods Sold
(COGS), Selling, General, & Administrative expenses
(S,G,&A), and Research and Development (R&D).
Cost of Goods Sold – BorgWarner has been able to
improve their cost of goods sold marginally over the last
5 years. We anticipate modest improvement to 74.5% of
revenue in 2016, which holds steady out to 2020. As a
result, gross margin is expected to maintain historical
levels of just over 21%
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Selling, General & Administrative Expenses – With no
clear trend over the last five years, SG&A expenses are
forecasted as a constant 4.7% of revenue. This is
consistent with recent performance.
Research & Development – R&D is an important
component of BorgWarner’s cost structure as these
investments are made in programs that fuel both short
and long‐term growth. Historically, R&D has held steady
between 3% and 4% of total revenue. For the purposes of
the model, R&D is expected to remain constant at 4% of
revenue. This estimate is based on the company’s long‐
term R&D target as laid out in their 2015 10‐k.
Operating Margin – After accounting for these key
expenses, operating margin is forecast to hold steady
between 11.4% and 11.7% out to 2020. This is consistent
with recent years but below the 12% target issued by
management.
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation
As previously mentioned, the DCF target price for
BorgWarner indicates a value of about $76 per share. In
order to arrive at that target price, we must first come up
with forward looking estimates for NOPLAT, invested
capital (IC), and the weighted‐average cost of capital
(WACC).
Net Operating Profit Less Adjusted Taxes (NOPLAT) –
NOPLAT is calculated by estimating earnings before
interest, taxes, and amortized goodwill (EBITA),
subtracting the provision for income taxes (once it has
been adjusted for non‐operating expenses), and adding
back any change in deferred tax liabilities. As can be seen
in the attached Value Driver worksheet, the revenue and
expense assumptions mentioned above have the largest
influence on EBITA. However, a few other relatively minor
expenses such as stock based compensation, the implied
interest on operating leases, and “other” expenses must
also be accounted for. Next, we need to adjust the
provision for income taxes for the tax effects of any non‐
operating expenses like interest expense/income and
impact of affiliate investments. Finally, by assuming
deferred tax assets and liabilities will continue to grow in‐
line with their average rate over the last five years, we
arrive at an estimate for NOPLAT.
Invested Capital – The next step in the DCF valuation
process is to estimate invested capital. There are three
primary inputs in this calculation: net operating working
capital (NWC), net property, plant, & equipment (net
P,P,&E), and other long‐term operating assets and
liabilities.
Net Operating Working Capital (NWC) – BorgWarner’s key
working capital accounts include the following: normal
cash, accounts receivable, inventories, prepaid expenses,
trade payables, accrued expenses, and income tax
payable. In 2015, many of these accounts increased
significantly compared to prior years. However, an
examination of BorgWarner’s 2015 10‐k reveals that these
increases are almost entirely the result of the Remy
International acquisition, which closed late in the year and
didn’t give BorgWarner enough time to unwind some of
these accounts. Going forward, the model assumes that all
of these accounts will be scaled back to levels more in‐line
with their historical averages by 2018/2019.
Net Property, Plant, & Equipment (net P,P,&E) – As
BorgWarner continues to grow and expand their
manufacturing capabilities, continued investments in
P,P,&E are going to be necessary. In the model, the
forecasts for capital expenditures and depreciation are the
key drivers. Capital expenditures are forecasted as a
constant 6% of sales ($500 ‐ $700 million), in‐line with
historical levels. Annual depreciation is expected to be a
constant 15% of prior year net P,P,&E which is also in‐line
with historical levels.
Other Long‐Term Operating Assets/Liabilities – Line items
in these categories include intangible assets, capitalized
operating leases, deferred revenue, and “other”
assets/liabilities. All of these items (excluding intangibles)
are expected to remain at a constant percentage of sales
out to 2020. Intangible assets are expected to gradually
amortize over time according to the schedule laid out in
BorgWarner’s 2015 10‐k.
Other Inputs
Weighted Average Cost of Capital – The final input to the
DCF model is the discount rate or the weighted average
cost of capital. Our model estimates this variable at 9.16%.
The key estimates in my cost of capital are the risk‐free
rate, the equity risk premium, beta, pre‐tax cost of debt,
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and marginal tax rate. The assumptions for these variables
are laid out as follows:
Risk‐Free Rate – approximates as 2.61% which is based on
the 30‐Yr Treasury bond YTM as of 3/31/2016.
Equity Risk Premium – estimate of 5% is the consensus
ERP from the Henry Fund.
Beta – average of the 1, 2, 3, 4, & 5‐year monthly beta
calculations via Bloomberg.
Pre‐Tax Cost of Debt – YTM of a BBB+ rated bond recently
issued by BorgWarner that matures in 2045.
Marginal Tax Rate – 26% in the forecast period. Calculated
from data in BorgWarner’s 2015 10‐k.
Results of Model and Sensitivity Testing
After all forecasts have been made, free cash flow is
expected to grow at an 8.3% CAGR from 2016 – 2020.
Additionally, ROIC is expected come in around 27% ‐ 29%,
down from the low 30% range observed over the last few
years. Given the WACC of 9.16% and a 3% continuing value
NOPLAT assumption, we arrive at our target price of
$76.88.
After running sensitivity analyses on several of the key
input variables, a target price range of $70 ‐ $76 seems
reasonable. However, the model is quite sensitive to
several variables. Predictably, the estimate of intrinsic
value is very sensitive to our continuing value ROIC and
NOPLAT assumptions of 29.4% and 3%, respectively.
However, we view our assumptions as reasonable given
the historical performance of the firm and the long term
outlook for the global auto industry. The model is also
extremely sensitive to beta and the equity risk premium.
While the beta of BorgWarner is certainly not set in stone,
we view our 1.6 as appropriate. Even if the beta were to
increase to 1.8 (as it has over certain time periods) our
intrinsic value still comes in at just under $70. Additionally,
we view our estimate of 5% for the equity risk premium as
conservative given the premiums observed in the market
over the last 10 years. Even if the ERP were to rise to near
7%, as it did in 2008, BorgWarner still appears
undervalued. Finally, while there are many different
drivers of revenue, our target price appears to be most
sensitive to the assumption we have made regarding
turbocharger growth. That said, even if turbocharger
revenue grew 0% in each year of our forecast period, our
target price is still just under $70.
Model vs. Consensus Estimates
Currently, consensus estimates are predicting 2016
revenue and earnings to come in at $9.2 billion and $3.26,
respectively. Our model in slightly more optimistic at $9.4
billion and $3.32. While this is slightly higher than
consensus, we are right at the high end of management’s
guidance range.
Despite similar operating expectations, our target price
range is substantially above the consensus target price of
$41. The biggest reason we have identified for the
divergence is our preference for the DCF method of
valuation compared to the price‐to‐earnings multiples
used by nearly all of the sell side analysts. While the Henry
Fund believes that DCF is a superior method for estimating
the long‐term value a company can generate, we
recognize that it may take time for the market to recognize
that value.
Relative Valuation
While our recommendation of Buy is based primarily on a
DCF valuation, it is important to consider other metrics in
order to help build an understanding of how other market
participants are valuing a stock. In BorgWarner’s case, with
the amount of fear and uncertainty currently present in
global financial markets, it is prudent to examine how the
company’s stock is priced relative to a group of
competitors. The peer group chosen consists of 9 other
tier 1 global auto parts suppliers with a similar geographic
distribution to BorgWarner. Based on 2016 and 2017
earnings estimates1
, the industry average forward P/E
ratio for 2016 is 12.1x and 10.8x for 2017. BorgWarner is
currently trading at 11.6x and 10.9x the modeled 2016 and
2017 EPS estimates. While this is modestly below the
industry average, it is reasonable in the context of
BorgWarner’s 5‐Yr EPS CAGR, as predicted by the model,
which is slightly below most of the other companies that
have higher valuations, such as Plastic Omnium and Hella
Hueck & Co. Additionally, they are valued at a premium to
most of the companies with lower growth rates, like
Schaeffler AG and Dana Holding Corp.
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Looking at a long‐term chart of BorgWarner’s NTM P/E
multiple, we can see that their shares are trading at some
of the lowest levels in the last decade. If we exclude the
spike in NTM P/E caused by the extreme negative earnings
revisions coming out of the Great Recession, the average
NTM P/E for BorgWarner is about 14.7x. If shares were
able to regain ground to 14x – 15x 2016 EPS it would imply
a share price of about $43, an approximate 20% premium
from current levels.
Source: FactSet
KEYS TO MONITOR
Going forward, BorgWarner is positioned well to take
advantage of several of the intermediate and long‐term
trends taking place in the auto industry. Assuming these
trends play out as expected, the company has a very good
chance to realize above average top and bottom line
growth. However, as we continue to hold their stock, there
are several sources of data that will be important to
monitor to determine if our thesis is still on track.
Auto production and sales ‐ The International
Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers (OICA)
reports quarterly production numbers and auto sales are
reported monthly by the industry blog, Automotive News.
BWA earnings and guidance ‐ Next report is scheduled for
late April/early May.
Growth news out of China ‐ Monitor news and estimates
from the International Monetary Fund and the World
Bank, both of which provide estimates for growth.
REFERENCES
1. FactSet
2. Bloomberg Terminal
3. Bloomberg New Energy Finance: Electric Vehicle
Report
http://about.bnef.com/press‐releases/electric‐
vehicles‐to‐be‐35‐of‐global‐new‐car‐sales‐by‐2040/
4. U.S. Energy Information Administration: Annual
Energy Outlook 2015
http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/
5. FuelEconomy.gov: Hybrid Comparison
http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/hybridCompare.js
p
6. Bureau of Transportation Statistics: Avg. Fuel Economy
of Light Vehicles
http://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/rita.dot.gov.bts/fil
es/publications/national_transportation_statistics/ht
ml/table_04_23.html
7. Edmunds.com: New Corporate Average Fuel Economy
Standards
http://www.edmunds.com/fuel‐economy/faq‐new‐
corporate‐average‐fuel‐economy‐standards.html
8. California Air Resources Board: ZEV Regulations
http://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/zevprog/zevregs/zev
regs.htm
9. EV News: 10 EV Friendly States and Counting
http://evnews.net/ten‐us‐ev‐friendly‐zev‐states‐
counting/
10. Honeywell: Turbocharger Adoption Report
https://turbo.honeywell.com/whats‐new‐in‐
turbo/press‐release/honeywells‐2015‐turbocharger‐
forecast‐signals‐increased‐expectations‐of‐turbo‐
technology‐as‐global‐penetration‐nears‐50‐percent‐
by‐2020/
11. IHS Automotive: US Light Vehicle Report for February
http://blog.ihs.com/same‐day‐analysis%3A‐us‐light‐
vehicle‐sales‐grow‐69‐february%2C‐best‐monthly‐
saar‐in‐15‐yearsDeStatis
12. German Labor Market Statistics
https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/
ShortTermIndicators/LabourMarket/arb410.html
13. China GDP Forecast
http://data.worldbank.org/country/china
14. AAA: National Average Fuel Prices
http://fuelgaugereport.aaa.com/
15. BBC News: Volkswagen Scandal Explained
http://www.bbc.com/news/business‐34324772
16. Automotive News Europe: European January Auto
Sales
20.
Page 20
http://europe.autonews.com/article/20160216/ANE/
160219917/european‐car‐sales‐rise‐6‐in‐january‐but‐
vw‐share‐hit‐by‐diesel
17. Barron’s.com: BorgWarner VW Impact
http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2015/
09/21/why‐volkswagen‐turmoil‐is‐no‐big‐deal‐for‐
borgwarner‐harman/
18. BorgWarner/Remy Intl. Acquisition Completion Notice
http://www.borgwarner.com/en/News/PressRelease
s/BWNews/11%2010%2015%20BorgWarner%20Com
pletes%20Acquisition%20of%20Remy%20Internation
al.pdf
19. WSJ.com: BorgWarner to Acquire Remy Intl.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/borgwarner‐to‐buy‐
remy‐international‐1436790596
20. Remy International 10‐k
http://ir.remyinc.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=132337&p=ir
ol‐irhome
21. BorgWarner Q4 2015 Earnings Call
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3890306‐
borgwarners‐bwa‐ceo‐james‐verrier‐q4‐2015‐results‐
earnings‐call‐transcript?part=single
22. BorgWarner Q1 2015 Earnings Press Release
http://www.borgwarner.com/en/News/PressRelease
s/BWNews/8%20K%203.31.2015%20Exhibit%2099.1
%20Press%20Release.pdf
23. BorgWarner Q2 2015 Earnings Press Release
http://www.borgwarner.com/en/News/PressRelease
s/BWNews/8%20K%206.30.2015%20Exhibit%2099.1
%20Press%20Release_w%20Logo.pdf
24. BorgWarner Q3 2015 Earnings Press Release
http://www.borgwarner.com/en/News/PressRelease
s/BWNews/8%20K%209.30.2015%20Exhibit%2099.1
%20Press%20Release.pdf
25. BorgWarner 2016 Guidance Update
http://www.borgwarner.com/en/News/PressRelease
s/BWNews/2016%20Net%20New%20Business%20an
d%20Guidance%20Release_010916.pdf
26. BorgWarner 2015 Earnings Press Release
http://www.borgwarner.com/en/News/PressRelease
s/BWNews/8%20K%2012.31.2015%20Exhibit%2099.1
%20Press%20Release%20‐%20with%20logo.pdf
27. IBISWorld
28. Automotive News: 2014 Top Suppliers Report
http://www.magna.com/docs/default‐
source/default‐document‐library/2014‐top‐suppliers‐
06‐15‐2015.pdf?sfvrsn=2
29. Chicago Fed: Detroit Back from the Brink?
https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/economic‐
perspectives/2012/2q‐klier‐rubenstein
30. Wards Auto: GM International Operations
http://wardsauto.com/news‐analysis/gm‐
international‐operations‐powering‐reorganized‐auto‐
maker
31. PwC Strategy: M&A in the Global Auto Industry
http://www.strategyand.pwc.com/reports/mergers‐
acquisitions‐auto‐industry
32. ZF TRW Acquisition Press Release
http://ir.trw.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=91341
7
33. PR Newswire: ZF TRW Demonstration
http://www.prnewswire.com/news‐releases/zf‐trw‐
demonstrates‐semi‐automated‐highway‐driving‐
assist‐system‐300107352.html
34. WSJ.com: JCI Spin‐off
http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702304
198504579569741641633918
35. Bloomberg.com: Harman Acquisition
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015‐01‐
22/harman‐spending‐almost‐1‐billion‐on‐two‐
software‐acquisitions
36. BorgWarner 2015 10‐k
http://www.borgwarner.com/en/Investors/SEC/defa
ult.aspx
37. TRW Automotive 2014 10‐k
http://ir.trw.com/sec.cfm
38. Harman International Industries 2015 10‐k
http://investor.harman.com/sec.cfm?DocType=Annu
al&Year=&SortOrder=Date+Descending&FormatFilter
39. International Organization of Motor Vehicle
Manufacturers: Annual Production Statistics
http://www.oica.net/category/production‐
statistics/2014‐statistics/
40. Mergent Online
http://mergentonline.com/basicsearch.php
41. Thomson ONE Investment Banking research portal
42. BorgWarner Q3 Conference Call Transcript
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3621976‐
borgwarners‐bwa‐ceo‐james‐verrier‐q3‐2015‐results‐
earnings‐call‐transcript?part=single
43. Zipcar statement on impact of ride sharing market
https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/content/doc
uments/10664zipcar.pdf
44. PwC Global Market Update
http://www.pwc.com/gx/en/automotive/autofacts/a
nalyst‐notes/pdf/pwc‐analyst‐note‐global‐market‐
update‐november‐2015.pdf
21.
Page 21
45. PwC State of the Plug in Electric Vehicle Market
http://www.pwc.com/gx/en/automotive/industry‐
publications‐and‐thought‐leadership/assets/pwc‐ec‐
state‐of‐pev‐market‐final.pdf
46. KPMG: Global Automotive Executive Survey 2015
http://www.kpmg.com/LU/en/IssuesAndInsights/Arti
clespublications/Pages/Global‐Automotive‐Executive‐
Survey‐2015.aspx
47. Bloomberg.com: Ford Supplier Reductions
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2013‐10‐
21/ford‐wants‐to‐pare‐number‐of‐suppliers‐by‐40‐
executive‐says
48. Congressional budget Office: The Budget & Economic
Outlook 2016 – 2026 (Jan 2016)
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/51129
49. WSJ.com: German GDP Growth Forecast
http://www.wsj.com/articles/german‐government‐
cuts‐economic‐growth‐forecast‐for‐2016‐to‐1‐7‐
1453901950
50. German GDP Estimates
http://data.worldbank.org/country/germany#cp_gep
51. IHS Automotive: Chinese Auto Forecast
http://blog.ihs.com/same‐day‐analysis%3A‐ihs‐
automotive‐upgrades‐chinese‐growth‐forecast
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER
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the University of Iowa’s Tippie School of Management.
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included in this report are from publicly available sources.
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Fund may hold a financial interest in the companies
mentioned in this report.