How Georgia Can Help Lead the Global Energy Transformation by Bill Nussey, presented at the 10th anniversary of the Southeastern Solar Summit in October 2018

1. How Georgia Can Help
Lead the Global Energy
Transformation
BILL NUSSEY,
CEO OF FREEING ENERGY AND SOLAR INVENTIONS

2. Two big ideas
1. Solar + battery will become the largest source of electricity
2. Georgia can and should become the global energy tech leader
• Our state is in a far better position than many people realize
• But, we have to break the “innovator’s dilemma” and think local and act small

3. 1. How can solar possibly
become the largest part of
the grid mix?

4. Megatrends driving the grid transformation
1. Price of natural gas falling below coal
2. Plummeting costs of solar, wind, and batteries
3. Growing public demand to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions
4. Increased availability of sensors and fine-
tuned grid controls
5. Replacing retiring coal and nuclear plants
6. Rise of electric vehicles
7. Increasing threats from extreme weather
8. Threat of cyberattacks on the grid
The grid transformation
looks like:
• Decentralized
• Decarbonized
• Digitized
These go beyond subsidies
and short-term politics.
Government intervention
can slow it down or speed
these up and, in particular, it
can help ensure its region is
among the leaders and not
the laggards.

5. $0.037
$0.046
$-
$-
$0.048
$0.049
$0.059
$0.090
$0.101
$0.143
Wind [1]
Solar PV [1]
Wind
Natural Gas
Solar PV
Nuclear
New Coal
Clean coal
Cost per kilowatt hour (w/o tax credits)
Solar and
Wind are now
the lowest
cost way to
generate
electricity
Cost per kilowatt hour (with tax credits)
All data from US Govt reporting March 2018
Other sources put solar at lower costs
[1] Clean energy tax credits are set to expire by 2021

6. How are generation sources trending?
NUCLEAR
US regulatory
costs will keep
nuclear
uncompetitive.
Public concerns
limit political
support. 90% of
fuel comes from
outside US.
Stalled.
COAL
Pollution & CO2
concerns have
led to increasing
costs. Clean
coal pilots have
largely failed to
date. Will
continue
declining in US.
HYDRO
The original
clean energy.
Lowest cost but
few remaining
viable locations
for expansion.
Small growth.
WIND
Costs will
continue
decreasing as
turbines get
larger. But, scale
benefits will slow
as turbines get
too large. Bright
future.
SOLAR PV
The biggest
winner of all.
See next…
NATURAL GAS
Swiss Army knife
of power.
Baseload.
Peaker. Lowest
cost of all
generation.
Complements
intermittent
clean energy.
Bright future.

7. Solar costs will continue dropping faster and
longer than any other generation source
1. Solar is a technology, not a fuel
2. Economies of volume beat out economies of scale
3. Solar can piggyback existing investments to lower costs
4. Solar will plants will last for decades longer than their warranties
5. There is an amazing amount of solar technology yet to come

8. Solar is a technology, not
a fuel.
Solar cells benefit from the economics as
microchips and hard drives.
The cost of solar has dropped 300x over the
last 40 years...
… and it will continue dropping
$0.23 per watt
$76 per watt

9. Economies of volume will beat out
economies of scale.
The economics of scale peaked out for coal and nuclear plants
around 2003. After that, average plant size started shrinking again.
Solar and batteries benefit from both scale and volumes.

10. Only solar can piggyback existing
infrastructure investments
Solar windows, solar paint, solar roadways,
solar parking lots… and solar shingles.

11. Solar will outlast its
warranties.
There is still decades
of solar innovation yet
to come
Solar projects are fully paid off on
or before the 20 year warranty
expires. Yet most 30-40 year old
solar panels continue to operate.
All the electricity generated after
they’re paid for is essentially free.
Perovskites, quantum dots, new
string designs, new panel designs.

12. New
technology is
always more
expensive than
the
incumbents.
But, if it looks
like the new
tech can get
cheaper, it
probably will.
Vacuum tubes changed
the world and launched
an era of automation and
computation.
Transistors were more
expensive and less
reliable for years. But
their underlying
architecture was simpler
and they ultimately
became millions of times
cheaper than tubes.
Source: http://www.cpu-world.com/CPUs/8008/die/L_Intel-C8008.jpg

13. Where is solar’s cost today?
COSTOFSOLAR
TIME
Environmental Subsidized Cheapest Abundance
YOU ARE
HERE

14. Solar’s largest challenge: Intermittency
?
Sunny Rainy
Easy
Nighttime
Predictable
Daily Cycle
Unpredictable
Weekly Cycle
Winter
Predictable
Seasonal Cycle

15. A look at the stunning price decline of batteries
** Note that these prices do not include
electronics and other balance of system costs

16. As solar and battery costs decline, they will
quickly become cheaper than grid power
TIME
Solar Costs
COSTS
3-5
YEARS
YOU ARE
HERE
Commercial Rate
9.6 cents
Residential Rate
12.3 cents
5-8
YEARS

17. What are the implications as solar and batteries
continue getting cheaper?
Future
5 - 8 years
Future
3 - 5 years
Today
Battery
Capacity cost per kWh $600 $400 $200
Cycles 3,000 4,000 5,000
Charge depth 80% 80% 80%
Cost per 1 kWh charge $0.16 $0.08 $0.032
Solar
Cost per 1 kWh (LCOE) $0.07 $0.06 $0.05
Total cost per kWh $0.23 $0.14 $0.08
$200 Battery deals are
already being done
at $100 today
Costs and specifications are illustrative only. They are not formal forecasts or predictions.
Lower than
most
commercial
electric rates

18. What gives Georgia a shot
at being an energy-tech
leader?

19. Georgia isn’t afraid to defy the status quo
Plant Vogtle: The only new
nuclear plant in the US
Plant Scherer: The highest
CO2 emitting plant in the US
Georgia is #1 for consuming
biomass to power the grid

20. Georgia has the spirit of an energy leader

21. FIRST
COMMERCIAL
SOLAR PANEL
IN THE WORLD
Bell Labs installed the first
commercial solar panel in Americus
Georgia in October 1955. It was
called the Solar Battery because it
replaced expensive and short lived
chemical batteries at remote
locations in the telephone
infrastructure.
1955

22. FIRST LARGE
SCALE SOLAR
PLANT IN THE
WORLD
Built in Coweta Country in the late
1970’s, the Solar Total Energy
Project (STEP) was the world’s
first and largest solar thermal
cogeneration project.
1979

23. LARGEST
ROOFTOP
SOLAR IN THE
WORLD,1996
As part of the 1996 Olympic
aquatic center, Georgia Power
helped build the then largest
rooftop solar array.
1996

24. TOP EV
OWNERSHIP
OF ANY
STATE, 2014
Thanks to some generous tax
incentives, Georgia was crowned
the kind of electric vehicles in 2014
– with more cars than any other
state.
2014

25. FIRST SOLAR
ROADWAY
PILOT IN THE
U.S.
As part of “The Ray”, a 16 mile
stretch of highway 85 in
Southwestern Georgia, the nation’s
first solar-panel-paved highway
was built to test the effectiveness of
this new technology.
2017
Courtesy: https://www.curbed.com/2017/2/6/14521102/highway-the-ray-solar-power-transportation

26. LARGEST
SOLAR PANEL
FACTORY IN
THE U.S.
Whitfield Country Georgia will soon
be home to the largest solar
module factory in the United
States. Hanwha Q-cells has
committed to building a module
manufacturing plant larger than 1.6
gigawatts.
2019

27. ONE OF THE
FIRST SMART
NEIGHBOR-
HOODS
IN THE WORLD
Atlanta will soon have one of the
first communities in the world
planned, from the ground up, to
have every residence be powered
by residential solar and batteries.
2019

28. GEORGIA
HAS SOME
MAJOR
ENERGY
SMARTS
Georgia Tech has some of the
world’s leading research projects
and grant recipients. The
university’s research has led to
some of the most widely used
technologies in the energy and
solar industry.
GE Power (formerly GE Energy)
had its world headquarters in
Atlanta for many years.

29. What will it take for Georgia
to become a global energy-
tech leader?

30. 1. Keep doing what we’re already doing well
The 2019 IRP is an opportunity for Georgia to continue its solar momentum
1. Keep adding utility scale solar
2. Expand community solar programs
3. Open offers for smaller scale solar plants
4. Streamline regulations, filings, interconnections, to slash soft costs and lower prices

31. 2. Think local, act small
“First, disruptive products are simpler and cheaper; they
generally promise lower margins, not greater profits.
Second, disruptive technologies typically are first
commercialized in emerging or insignificant markets. And
third, leading firms’ most profitable customers generally
don’t want, and indeed initially can’t use, products based
on disruptive technologies.”
― Clayton M. Christensen

32. History tells us
that most
innovation is
driven by
outsiders –
mavericks and
renegades who
don’t
understand the
status quo
This is what happens when the
vertically integrated incumbents
control the innovation cycle
This is what happens when
outsiders and entrepreneurs are
allowed participate in the market.

33. 2. Think local, act small
Policy recommendations
• Grid as backup tariff – no export – copy Hawaii
• Create a clean energy kickers for opportunity zones
Business / startup recommendations
• Transactive town / campus
• Energy-tech incubator – search the world for the smartest people and bring them to Georgia
• Copy China’s playbook for winning in solar – supply chain and talent

34. “It’s time for the power industry to be a
technology business again”
-- Jim Rogers, retired CEO of Duke Energy

35. THANK YOUFreeingEnergy.com
Facebook.com/FreeingEnergy
@FreeingEnergy