B-Focus — 5 ประเด็นเด่นเศรษฐกิจประจำสัปดาห์ 21 มิถุนายน 2564
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B-Focus — 5 ประเด็นเด่นเศรษฐกิจประจำสัปดาห์ 21 มิถุนายน 2564
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B-Focus — 5 ประเด็นเด่นเศรษฐกิจประจำสัปดาห์ 21 มิถุนายน 2564
- 1. Economic Outlook Burin Adulwattana Chief Economist 1
- 5. Source: Bank ofThailand ความคืบหน้าโครงการ สินเชื่อฟื้นฟูของ แบงก์ชาติ ความคืบหน้าโครงการ พักทรัพย์ พักหนี้ของแบงก์ชาติ
- 7. Share of people who received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine Source: Our World in Data Japan 16.42% Thailand 7.79% Taiwan 4.14% Hong Kong 25.56%
- 8. Pound Tumbles as Virus Resurgence Clouds U.K. Recovery Hopes Source: Bloomberg
- 10. Policy Rates
- 11. ประเด็นที่ 1: Fed Meeting
- 12. Source: Federal Reserve Implied Fed FundsTarget Rate March 2021 June 2021
- 14. Source: Bloomberg The U.S. Dollar Index
- 16. Thank You 16
Notas del editor
- https://www.thairath.co.th/business/economics/2120430
- https://www.thairath.co.th/business/economics/2120430 Soft loan ให้เท่าไหร่
- JAPAN INSIGHT: Recovery Levels Off, Virus Cases Drop - Gauges By Yuki Masujima (Economist) (Bloomberg Economics) -- The recovery in Japan’s activity stalled in the week ended June 18, likely due to rainy weather weighing on mobility. The number of new virus infections continued to fall, albeit at a slower pace than in previous weeks. The end of the state of emergency in major cities including Tokyo and Osaka this week is likely to support activity. Still, we remain wary of the risk of another virus flareup before the Olympic Games start on July 23. The government said the state of emergency will end on June 20 for most areas excluding the Okinawa prefecture. Mobility, including walking activity and public transportation use, was stable to lower from the previous week. The Japan Meteorological Agency announced the start of the rainy season in Tokyo and surrounding area on June 14. Hong Kong to Cut Quarantine for Vaccinated Residents, Tourists Quarantine time to be halved for most arrivals into the city City faced growing backlash to strict rules as others open up By Felix Tam and Alfred Liu (Bloomberg) -- Hong Kong will shorten hotel quarantine to seven days for fully vaccinated residents traveling from most places, as well as non-residents inoculated against Covid-19, in its most significant move yet to ease one of the strictest border curbs in the world. The keenly anticipated moves are part of a broader loosening of restrictions announced by Chief Executive Carrie Lam at a briefing Monday, which she said was a symbolic day as it marked two weeks without any new local coronavirus cases. Other plans include lifting capacity restrictions at some restaurants and swimming pools. The shortening of hotel quarantine will begin on June 30 and apply for Hong Kong residents, Lam said, adding that non-residents could be eligible within a month from that date. At present, travelers are required to serve mandatory hotel quarantine of up to 21 days. Lam did not specify which places would be excluded from the new plan, though the South China Morning Post reported earlier Monday that the easing would apply to countries in the city’s “high-risk” category, which currently includes the U.S., U.K., Singapore and some European nations. Bloomberg reported last week that the quarantine easing plan, which had been recommended by a government advisory panel earlier this month, had been approved by the government. The current quarantine regime has been a growing source of public anger. Travelers have to book their own hotel rooms, and they’re being reserved quickly over the summer period. In Hong Kong, fully vaccinated people are also required to serve quarantine in government facilities if they come into close contact with infected people, even if they’ve tested negative for the virus. With vaccine uptake slow amid widespread distrust of the Beijing-backed government, calls have grown for the strict rules to be relaxed for inoculated people in order to boost rates.
- UK Vaccine: 62.87% Pound Tumbles as Virus Resurgence Clouds U.K. Recovery Hopes (Bloomberg) -- The pound dropped to the lowest level against the dollar in more than two months as a surge in coronavirus cases dented mounting confidence in the U.K.’s recovery. Sterling fell as much as 0.9% to $1.3795, its weakest since April 16, after a hawkish Federal Reserve strengthened the dollar this week and the U.K. recorded more than 11,000 new cases of the disease. Pound sentiment for the coming month is at its most bearish since April, according to risk reversals, a gauge of market positioning. “Some of the optimism stemming from the U.K.’s early vaccine roll-out is slipping,” said Jane Foley, head of foreign-exchange strategy at Rabobank in London. “An increase in virus cases is not good news clearly. Among other factors, this means that the U.K. is excluded from the European Union’s safe travel list.” It’s a setback for a currency that has risen about 1% this year, lagging only the Canadian dollar in the Group-of-10 economies. The U.K.’s successful vaccination effort and speculation the Bank of England would hike interest rates sooner than its peers have both boosted sterling. “Rising case numbers are certainly not helping sentiment,” said Jeremy Stretch, head of G-10 foreign-exchange strategy at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce. Pound Probabilities According to Bloomberg’s options pricing model, there is now a 21% chance that pound drops to $1.20 by the end of the year, the lowest level since March 2020. That compares with a 10% probability seen before Wednesday’s Fed decision. The pound has fallen by more than 1% since the Fed’s accelerated its expected pace of policy tightening. Increased demand for pound puts in the front end suggests options traders see little risk for a hawkish shift next week by the Bank of England. The British currency also took a knock after the volume of goods sold in stores and online in May fell 1.4%, according to data published Friday, following an unprecedented 9.2% surge in April. That said, the decline was driven by decreased spending at supermarkets as the government allowed restaurants and bars to reopen. Also weighing on sentiment was a defeat to the Conservatives at a special parliamentary election to the Liberal Democrats, in a district northwest of London that had been a stronghold for the ruling party.
- Norway Interest Rate The Norges Bank held its benchmark interest rate at a record low of 0.0 percent during its June meeting, and signaled that the first post-pandemic rate hike is likely to come in September. At the same time, underlying inflation has slowed and is now below the 2 percent target. Officials also said low interest rates reduce the risk of unemployment becoming entrenched at a high level and help return inflation towards the target, but warned that they could also increase the risk of a build-up of financial imbalances Policy rate unchanged at zero percent “In the Committee’s current assessment of the outlook and balance of risks, the policy rate will most likely be raised in September”, says Governor Øystein Olsen. At the beginning of 2021, higher infection rates and tighter Covid-related restrictions held back the recovery. Through spring, the pace of vaccination has accelerated, and the authorities have begun a gradual reopening of society. Unemployment has fallen but remains high. There is still uncertainty regarding the evolution of the pandemic, but economic activity now seems to be rebounding sharply and somewhat faster than projected earlier. Underlying inflation has slowed and is now below the 2% target. the krone appreciation since 2020 and prospects for moderate wage growth suggest that inflation in Norway will remain below target in the coming years. As long as capacity utilization is rising, there is limited risk of inflation becoming too low. The Committee placed weight on the marked rise in house prices since spring 2020 but noted that house price inflation has recently moderated somewhat. The policy rate forecast is slightly higher than in the March 2021 Monetary Policy Report and implies a gradual rise from autumn 2021. New Zealand Interest Rate The Reserve Bank of New Zealand held its official cash rate (0CR) at a record low of 0.25 percent during its May meeting, but projected a 25 basis points rate hike to 0.5 percent by September 2022 and estimated the OCR would reach 1.5 percent by the end of 2023. The board, however, mentioned that it was in no hurry to raise rates until its inflation and employment targets are met, Policymakers added that they were aware of price pressures due to disruptions to global raw material supplies, and higher oil prices. Official Cash Rate (OCR) decisions and current rate - Reserve Bank of New Zealand (rbnz.govt.nz) The Reserve Bank uses monetary policy to maintain price stability as defined in the Remit. The current Remit requires the Bank to keep inflation between 1 and 3 percent on average over the medium term, with a focus on keeping future average inflation near the 2 percent target midpoint and supporting Maximum Sustainable Employment. Brazil Interest Rate Brazil's central bank on Wednesday announced its third interest rate hike in 2021, a 75-basis point increase to 4.25% and anticipated a similar rise in August to mitigate the spread of current temporary shocks to inflation. The Committee also emphasizes that its view for the next meeting will continue to depend on the evolution of economic activity, the balance of risks, and inflation projections and expectations