This quarterly newsletter focuses on the three overarching themes impacting the region: Connectivity, Commodities and Energy, and the Rising New Middle Class. The unprecedented connectivity between these nations is enabling unprecedented movement of people, goods, services, and ideas accelerated by innovation and new technologies. Their economies are driven by commodities and energy fueling economic growth and creating future opportunity, while presenting long-term challenges from pollution to climate change.

1. India, Singapore, Middle
East & Africa Group
Quarterly Review
Volume2
February
2017

2. 2
Table of contents
Rising Middle Class
• Brunswick Exclusive: Interview with Mr Tirad
Al-Mahmoud, Group CEO, ADIB
4
Commodities and Energy
• HowwillPresidentTrumpimpacttheGCC?
• OilstrengtheninglinksbetweenIranandAsia
6
Connectivity
• Demonetisation in India
• Singapore Government setting the
tone for cyber security
• Africa is on the cusp of a digital
revolution
11
Upcoming Events17
Introduction3
2
Image: SheikhZayedMosque, AbuDhabi,UAE.
ISMEA Team18

3. 3
Introduction
Welcome to the January 2017 edition
of the India, Southeast Asia, Middle
East and Africa (ISMEA) Group
Newsletter, a quarterly roundup
of news, analysis and ideas from
Brunswick team members based in
the world’s most dynamic emerging
markets.
With more than 2 billion upwardly
mobile people, the ISMEA region
accounts for some of the most exciting
markets to trade and invest today.
From regional economic tigers such
as Singapore and India, to the rapidly
growing countries of the GCC, to the
frontier economies of sub-Saharan
Africa, our region holds immense
potential for global business. We
live in countries with vast natural
resources, favourable demographics,
greater social and economic
opportunities for their citizens, and
virtually unlimited future potential
waiting to be untapped. They are also
nations with major challenges before
them.
This quarterly newsletter focuses
on the three overarching themes
impacting this region: Connectivity,
Commodities and Energy, and the
Rising New Middle Class.
The unprecedented connectivity
between these nations is making the
way for unprecedented movement
of people, goods, services, and ideas
accelerated by innovation and new
technologies. Their economies are
driven by commodities and energy
fuelling economic growth and creating
future opportunity, while presenting
numerous long-term challenges from
pollution to climate change. The rise
of the middle class is introducing
countless new dynamics from
questions over the distribution of
wealth, youth, culture, education and
other areas with lasting impact on the
countries and the wider region.
These are the economies of the future,
where we live, work and support the
great value-creating companies of
the region and the world. We hope
to provide you with unique insight to
help you answer some questions and
spark new ones for you.
3
Image: LittleIndia,Singapore.

4. 4
Rising Middle Class
Brunswick Exclusive: How the private sector
can create opportunities for the youth of the
Middle East
Youth unemployment is a
fundamental issue throughout
the Middle East, where up to
one third of 15 to 29 year-olds
are not working.
The creation of employment
opportunities for youth is vital for
political stability and economic
growth. Tirad Al-Mahmoud is the
Group CEO for Abu Dhabi Islamic
Bank, one of the world’s largest
Islamic banks by assets. He has over
30 years of experience in banking and
finance and is a prominent voice in
the global debate on ethical banking.
Mr Al Mahmoud spoke to Brunswick
about his strong belief that the private
sector can play a key role in creating
opportunities for young people in the
region.
Q: A defining issue in the Middle
East is youth unemployment. What
can the private sector do to address
this issue?
Young people in the Middle East have
the tools and ambition to succeed, but
frustratingly not the opportunity.
Our universities are producing ever-
larger numbers of graduates with
excellent qualifications; however,
they do not always find employment
upon graduation. We expect there
to be 100 million job seekers in the
region by 2020, which underscores the
importance of creating opportunities
for young entrants to the work force,
and fast.
Despite a number of organisations
and programmes in the region to
address this, the private sectors in
these countries have a role to play too.
Some sectors, such as the financial
sector, have made good progress
due to the scale of corporates, and
ADIB has made a point of recruiting
graduates fresh from university, but
the challenge remains for smaller
companies.
Q: You are a believer that young
people are interested in ‘ethical
banking’. Could you elaborate on
this? How can ethical banking help
young people in the region?
I am, but my view is not limited to
young people. In the post financial
crisis world, where banks are
rebuilding trust, the principles of
fairness, transparency and simplicity
have universal appeal to all customers.
These principles, which are the
fundamentals of ethical banking, are
the cornerstones of Islamic banking.
When speaking specifically about
youth, we believe digital technologies
and an emphasis on sustainable
practices are essential in reaching a
younger consumer base. We have
put a lot of effort and investment into
building one of the strongest digital
banking platforms in the UAE, and
we know that this is very largely being
driven by youth banking, or what we
call “Gen Y”.
We believe that the combination of
these trends both play extremely well
for the youth of the Middle East.
Q: You are an advocate for
entrepreneurship as a gateway for
success for youth. What can the
region do to encourage young people
to become entrepreneurs?
Small and medium-sized enterprises
make up over 90% of the UAE’s
private sector, so entrepreneurship is
the backbone of our economy. Young
people, with ambition, skills, and
understanding of new technologies
and information make excellent
entrepreneurs. There is a strong will
in the region to create a supportive
environment for SMEs, with many
governments and businesses in the
region coming forward with incentives
and programmes.
4
Brunswick interviews Tirad Al-Mahmoud, Group CEO of Abu Dhabi
Islamic Bank.
Mr Tirad Al-Mahmoud is Group CEO of Abu
Dhabi Islamic Bank.
“We expect there to
be
100 million
job seekers in the
region by 2020”
Rising Middle Class

5. 5
Two of the most commonly cited
reasons for business failure are
lack of finance and a shortage of
the essential management skills to
take businesses to the next stage of
growth. Banks typically only begin to
look at finance for start-ups after 3-4
years of operation, once the business
is properly established.
The development of skills is
something that needs better
development in the region; more
can be done by banks to support
the growth of SMEs and ensure
their survival. The onus is on banks
to move away from just being the
suppliers of products to SMEs and
move to an all encompassing advisory
role. ADIB has been helping SMEs
building the skills that they need
to grow their business through
our BusinessPulse events – a joint
initiative from ADIB and Zawya to
provide advice and support to SMEs.
More banks in the region need to do
this.
InterviewwiththeBrunswickAbuDhabi
office.
5
Brunswick Exclusive: Tirad Al-Mahmoud
SMEs make up over
90%
of the UAE’s
private sector, so
entrepreneurship
is the backbone
of our economy.
Young people, with
ambition, skills, and
understanding of
new technologies
and information
make excellent
entrepreneurs.
Image:ADIBBesmartFinancialEducationProgram.

6. 6
The early weeks of the Trump
presidency already indicate a
shift in US policy towards the
Middle East.
In following through on his ‘America
First’ pledge, President Trump is
implementing bold policies that may
well change the world order.
The GCC will not be spared, as
the region’s governments try to
make sense of a new leader at a
particularly turbulent time. Yet for
all of Mr Trump’s controversy, GCC
governments remain optimistic about
his arrival.
At the heart of this relationship is
security and economic cooperation.
As former US Vice President Joe Biden
noted on a visit to the UAE last year,
bilateral trade between the US and
UAE alone surpassed US$25 billion in
2015. Defense ties also run deep; the
GCC proved to be one of the largest
purchasers of US defense technology
in recent years.
The president’s remarks on key
security and economic issues, such
as trade, energy and international
cooperation, suggest a new attitude
towards the UAE and the wider GCC.
Stronger GCC relations at the
expense of Iran…
For the GCC, the most significant
promise of Mr Trump is his pledge
to renegotiate the nuclear deal with
Iran, a central issue of contention
the Gulf states had with the Obama
administration.
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of
Action (JCPOA), better known as the
nuclear deal between the P5+1 and
Iran, lifted international sanctions
in exchange for Iran eliminating
its stockpile of medium-enriched
uranium, cutting its stockpile of
low-enriched uranium by 98%, and
reducing by nearly two-thirds the
number of gas centrifuges for 13
years. For the next 15 years, Iran will
only enrich uranium up to 3.67%,
essentially halting any nuclear
weapons efforts for that time but not
dismantling the programme.
During the presidential campaign, Mr
Trump repeatedly criticised the
nuclear deal, saying that dismantling
it would be his “number one priority”.
That is music to the ears of Gulf
leaders, who felt that the Obama
administration had given Iran free
reign to meddle in the region, helping
to embolden the country to extend its
influence across the Middle East and
beyond. The lifting of sanctions and a
cash transfer of US$1.3 billion as part
of the deal would provide Iran with
the resources to potentially increase
its support of groups like Hezbollah,
and the Houthi rebels of Yemen, with
whom the GCC states are fighting a
pitched battle.
Yet analysts warn that while Trump
could nullify the nuclear accord, he
would risk isolating the US from the
international community as well as
hamper a possible rapprochement
with Russia. The sheer mechanics
of unwinding the deal, analysts say,
could also make it a non-starter.
…but will the US maintain defense
support?
Trump also singled out America’s
allies, who he says have not paid
their agreed share in NATO and other
alliances, stating, “We’ve defended
other nations’ borders while refusing
to defend our own and spent trillions
and trillions of dollars overseas while
America’s infrastructure has fallen
into disrepair and decay. We’ve
made other countries rich while the
wealth, strength and confidence of
our country has dissipated over the
horizon.”
The message was aimed at European
states, as well as South Korea, Japan
and others; however, Trump has
also been critical of US financial and
military involvement in Middle
Eastern affairs.
In a 2016 interview with the New
YorkTimes, then-candidate Trump
similarly criticised Saudi Arabia’s
contribution to the global fight against
ISIS as inadequate, stating, “We are
not being reimbursed for the our
protection of many of the countries…
including Saudi Arabia.”
6
Commodities & Energy
How will President Trump impact the GCC?
Commodities & Energy
Bilateral trade
between the US
and UAE alone
surpassed US$25
billion in 2015.

7. 7
For GCC countries, this rhetoric
worries some GCC countries who fear
that the US may be turning away from
security guarantees.
The GCC has been one of the largest
defense spenders in recent years, as
most have reinforced their militaries
and begun to cultivate new alliances
in the event that the US defense
support wanes. His message may have
confirmed their concerns.
Building on trade
PresidentTrump’scampaignpromises
centred on the reinvigoration of US
industry and countering the influence
of multinational institutions, and his
inauguration speech reconfirmed his
intention to ‘buy American and hire
American.’
US trade with the UAE stands at about
33.5% of the total trade with GCC
nations.
From 2010 to 2015, US exports to the
UAE increased by 97%, exceeding $22
billion. 2015 also marked the seventh
consecutive year that the UAE was the
largest export market for US goods
and services in the region.
This trend continued into 2016, as the
US Department of Commerce states
that trade between the UAE and the
United States reached $12.84 billion in
the first half of 2016, compared with
$11.9 billion over the same period in
2015.
In addition to trade, more than 1,500
US organisations have a presence in
the UAE, with an estimated 50,000-
60,000 US citizens living in the
country.
As the relationship between the
US and UAE is largely driven
by US exports, Trump’s talk of
enacting import tariffs on foreign
manufactured goods may have only a
nominal impact on bilateral trade with
the UAE.
Meanwhile the dirham peg to the US
dollar will fuel continued demand
for US products and services in the
country. As a result, it is unlikely that
a move by the new administration
to curb imports (and the risk for
potential trade wars with other
countries) would directly impact the
business interests of US and Emirati
organisations in the near term.
Oil and energy
A cornerstone of the Trump campaign
was a pledge to lead a resurgence in US
industry, especially in the energy and
manufacturing sectors.
The US energy renaissance of the past
decade made possible by fracking has
presented a dramatic new challenge to
the GCC. The technology has changed
the global supply dynamics, turning
the US – historically dependent on
imports of oil – into a self-sufficient
producer, and more recently, an
exporter.
President Trump has pledged to create
‘complete energy independence’
for the US. This pledge includes a
variety of strategies to increase US
oil production through changes
to regulations and environmental
policies, as well as implementing
measures to encourage investment
in US shale companies to increase
exploration and production activities.
The confirmation of former
ExxonMobil CEO Rex Tillerson to the
position of Secretary of State only
underscores Trump’s determination
in this area.
How will President Trump impact the GCC?
7
Image:TrumpInauguration,January2017.

8. 8
Commodities & Energy
An increase in US production could
impact an already over-supplied
global oil market, with a potential
increase in production driving global
oil prices lower, impacting GCC
government revenues even further.
Another scenario would be Mr
Trump’s pledge to ban US imports
of foreign oil. The US imports
approximately 16 per cent of its oil
from the Persian Gulf, and – while
a ban on imports may reduce oil
production globally, causing prices
to potentially recover – it would have
profound economic consequences and
political implications on the region.
Business interests and potential
conflicts of interest
A controversy surrounding the
new administration is the potential
for conflicts of interest related to
President Trump’s business dealings
in the region. While the president has
pledged to hand over his commercial
interests to his family, creating
what has been referred to as a ‘half-
blind’ trust, his ties in the UAE and
elsewhere remain under scrutiny.
Trump’s business interests in the
region include ties with a luxury
property developer with whom
Trump partnered to develop an 18-
hole golf course described as the
‘Beverly Hills of Dubai.’ Trump enjoys
a longstanding relationship with
that company’s chairman, who was
recently Trump’s guest at his New
Year’s party, in which Trump praised
him as a good friend and business
associate.
The property developer has expressed
interest in expanding its business
relationship with the Trump brands.
Shortly before his inauguration,
Trump announced that he had
declined a US$2 billion deal with the
company, describing it as a potential
conflict of interest.
Despite this specific deal not
materialising, the company’s
chairman expressed hope that the
election of Trump will benefit his
business, telling journalists in January,
“Naturally, I think we will benefit
from the strength of the brand going
forward.”
President Trump maintains that
there is no law or US Constitutional
requirement barring him from
having business interests while
serving as president. As legal and
ethics experts will look into Trump’s
business interests, it is clear that the
organisation’s international assets
will remain a source of controversy, in
both the UAE and elsewhere.
8
Image:StatueofPresidentAndrewJackson,TheWhiteHouse.

9. 99
Communications implications
In addition to the policy implications
for the region, the president has
already used his Twitter account to
attack brands and organisations that
he disagrees with, and in turn, has
changed the global communications
landscape.
Tweets and remarks complaining
about the costs associated with
government contractors are recent
examples of the unprecedented
reputational risks organisations face
as a result of direct and unprovoked
confrontation from the new
president. In the case of one Fortune
500 aerospace company, Mr Trump
publicly criticised the company’s costs
for government contracts via Twitter,
resulting in shares in the company
falling immediately. While the decline
was only temporary, it was enough to
cause market uncertainty.
Trump’s similar attack on US
automotivecompaniesforoutsourcing
automotive production – and his
threats of implementing a ‘border tax’
– created a similar controversy, which
played out in the public domain.
In 2016, then-candidate Trump also
stated his public support for the US
Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism
Act (JASTA), commonly known as
the ‘9/11 bill’. The act passed the
U.S. Congress in September 2016,
and allows US citizens to directly sue
foreign governments and entities
for damages resulting from acts
of terrorism. The legislation was
met with a swift response from
Saudi Arabia (home to 15 of the 9/11
hijackers), which has threatened to
liquidate the country’s estimated
US$750 billion in total U.S. assets.
As the controversy plays out between
both governments, a harsh tweet or
remark by President Trump could have
profound commercial consequences
for organisations in the US and GCC.
In a new communications era where
one man’s social media presence
can move markets and impact global
commercial decisions, both US and
GCC companies must consider the
reputational risks associated with
being on the wrong side of the new
administration.
As the GCC is home to a number of
individuals, institutions and even
governments with complex and
controversial relations with the US,
it will only be a matter of time before
President Trump turns his criticism
towards organisations within the GCC.
When that day comes, businesses will
need to be ready to respond quickly
and appropriately.
HassanFattahiswiththeAbuDhabi
officeofBrunswick,andJamesAllanis
basedinDubai.
How will President Trump impact the GCC?
Image:TheCapitolBuilding,Washington,D.C.

10. 10
Oil strengthens links
between Iran and Asia
Will investment follow?
Post-sanctions Iran has
increased oil exports to South
and East Asian nations and
investments in Iranian mega-
projects are underway with
Asian energy companies
beating US competitors to
market.
While the lifting of some sanctions
between Iran and the West last
year represents an opportunity to
re-integrate the Islamic Republic
into the global economy, remaining
trade sanctions coupled with internal
politics within the US and Europe
have complicated Iran’s ability to
build links with the West. Asian
companies have been happy to fill this
void.
Asia has been a regional ally of Iran
long before the lifting of sanctions in
2016, as trade relationships between
the country and many Asian nations
have been in place for decades. These
relationships have given Asian
companies a competitive edge in
accessing Iran’s most coveted
resource: oil.
Iran holds the fourth-largest oil
reserves in the world, and is the
second-largest holder of natural
gas reserves, meaning its re-
integration into the global economy
represents a tectonic shift in an
already oversupplied global oil
market. The country is working to
gain greater market share, increasing
its production from approximately
3 million barrels per day (bpd) to a
target of 4 million bpd.
The first post-sanctions Iranian crude
exports reached Europe last year, in
addition to an increase in exports to
Asian nations.
However, the US is noticeably absent
in this scenario. Remaining sanctions
specific to banking and transhipment
have made it impossible for the
overwhelming majority of US
companies to enter the world’s last
great untapped petroleum economy.
Longstanding restrictions on financial
transactions between US companies
and Iran have prevented major US
international oil companies (IOCs)
from engaging in discussions for
potential market entry, as Chevron,
ExxonMobil and others have cited
existing US laws as preventing them
from being able to do business with
Iran.
The recent inauguration of Donald
Trump, who has publicly opposed the
recent Iran deal struck by the outgoing
Obama administration, creates
further uncertainty about the future
of US-Iranian relations. Here again,
Asian companies have been quick
to fill the gap. TheWallStreetJournal
reported that since the lifting of select
sanctions in January 2016, 70 per cent
of Iran’s increased oil exports have
gone to Asia; with China, India, Japan
and South Korea all increasing their
supply of Iranian crude in 2016.
China in particular has been a
longstanding ally of Iran, and a major
buyer of Iranian crude oil, increasing
its crude imports to 611,338 barrels per
day (November 2016). This increase
in trade not only signifies strong links
that existed between Iran and the
continent, but also represents a likely
catalyst in foreign direct investment
from Asian partners into Iran, which
is desperately seeking institutional
finance to modernise its aging energy
infrastructure. Energy partnerships
are already being formed between
the National Iranian Oil Company
(NIOC) and Asian partners. In October
last year, India’s state-owned India
Oil and Natural Gas Corp. entered
into a preliminary agreement with
NIOC for a US$10 billion project for
the development of Iran’s Farzad
B gas field, which is expected to be
confirmed in 2017.
Meanwhile, Indonesia’s state-owned
oil and gas company Pertamina and
NIOC signed an agreement to co-
develop two offshore Iranian fields
with combined reserves in excess of
5 billion barrels. Lastly, in November
2016, China National Petroleum
Corp. and French IOC Total SA signed
a US$4.8-billion agreement for the
development of Iran’s offshore South
Pars gas field.
Expect this inbound investment to
continue as theWallStreetJournal
10
The first post-
sanctions Iranian
crude exports reached
Europe last year, in
addition to an increase
in exports to Asian
nations.
Commodities & Energy

11. 11
reported that Iran is seeking
approximately US$130 billion worth
of investment for its energy sector,
essential in modernising its domestic
oil and gas facilities and reintegrating
the economy into global oil markets.
Asian companies have been quick
to respond to Iran’s needs for
investment and partnerships, as
both developed and emerging Asian
economies require imported energy
resources to fuel future growth.
While the trade links are clear, Iran’s
energy future remains uncertain. The
country has been on the threshold
of freeing up international trade and
investment with foreign partners
before. However, progress in past
trade negotiations with the UK
and EU stalled due to continued
allegations surrounding Iran’s nuclear
programme and several high profile
international incidents, such as
the 2007 seizure of 15 British Royal
Navy personnel by Iranian forces in
disputed waters. A similar incident
occurred between the US Navy and
Iranian forces in 2016.
This complicated history with the
West coupled with the complexities
of a Trump administration create
uncertainty over the future of
relations between Iran and the West.
With US energy companies on the
sidelines for the indefinite future, and
their European counterparts slow to
enter market, expect ties between Iran
and Asian economies to grow closer as
the oil (and money) continue to flow.
JamesAllanisanAssociatewiththeDubai
officeofBrunswick.
11
Oil strengthens links between Iran and Asia
Iran is seeking
approximately
US$130
billion
worth of investment
for its energy sector,
essential in modernising
its domestic oil and
gas facilities and
reintegrating the
economy into global oil
markets.
Image:Iranianoilfield.

12. 12
As Singapore progresses
towards its vision of becoming
a ‘Smart Nation’ – where
citizens of this city-state are
empowered by technology to
lead meaningful and fulfilled
lives – it has also taken strides
in embedding cyber security
measures.
Regional companies can take
practical inspiration from how the
Singapore government has brought
clarity and definition to making
cyber security a national priority.
Singapore announced its Smart
Nation initiative in 2014, with the
aim to support better living, stronger
communities, and create more
opportunities for all, by leveraging
advances in digital technology. One
of the key enablers identified that
is necessary for Singapore to realise
this vision is cybersecurity and data
privacy. Last October, the Singapore
government put forth for the first
time a comprehensive national cyber
security strategy. A key emphasis is on
public awareness and making cyber
security a challenge that needs to be
collectively shouldered by citizens and
corporations.
As organisations continue to address
their cyber security issues, including
building internal capabilities and
forging a culture that understands
and is prepared for cyber threats, the
Singapore government’s approach
to articulating its cyber security
measures can offer some practical
inspiration.
Establish a burning platform
Singaporeans are used to living in a
relatively safe environment and that
sense of physical safety conflates
with cyber safety. The government
started a steady drum beat of news
highlighting the threats the country
faces as ‘an attractive target for cyber
criminals’, including acknowledging
that in the space of one year, the
city-state has uncovered 16 waves of
cyber attacks. This helps Singapore
citizens understand why there is a
sense of urgency associated with
cyber security and creates awareness
of the importance of becoming a
safe, secure cyber nation. Similarly,
organisations need to create a
burning platform directly related to
its business. A hotel company should
help its employees understand how a
privacy breach in customer data will
unravel all its promises of providing
a safe and trusted environment to
its guests. A mobile internet start-
up can lose its licence to operate
if a cyber incident escalates. CEOs
can be fired from their jobs because
of data breaches. Establishing and
repeating this burning platform keeps
the importance of cyber security
top of mind. More importantly, this
firmly cements the ‘why’, providing
rationale to galvanise action and
instigate behaviour change in the
work force.
Socialise your strategy
The government has a clear strategy
that outlines its vision, goals and
priorities in the online space,
underpinned by four pillars: building
a resilient infrastructure, creating
a safer cyberspace, developing a
vibrant cybersecurity ecosystem
and strengthening international
partnerships. This strategy is a direct
response to the threats highlighted
previously and also featured
opportunities where Singapore can
take regional leadership in building
a cyber nation. This strategy was
announced in the mainstream media
– unveiled first by the Prime Minister,
underscoring its importance – and
then echoed by other ministers and
subject matter experts in the ensuing
months.
The clarity of the strategy and the
transparency of the announcement
cemented cyber security as a national
priority.
This tactic can be used effectively in
an organisation. Employees should
be made aware of their organisation’s
strategy to combat cyber threats, and
internal communications around
this should be clear, relevant and
easily understood, frequently fronted
by the company’s senior leaders.
This is critical as most data security
vulnerabilities are caused by employee
behaviours. Making everyone
understand their organisation’s
position on cyber security and
ensuring they are committed to
championing this is crucial to
establishing a successful cyber
security strategy.
12
Connectivity
Singapore Government sets the tone for
cyber security measures. Will regional
companies follow?
Connectivity

13. 13
Invest behind the strategy
One of the most symbolic acts
from the Singapore government to
demonstrate the seriousness of cyber
threats was the founding of the Cyber
Security Agency (CSA). A senior
military officer was placed in charge,
immediately giving authority to the
agency but also publicly signaling
that cyber security is on par with the
other national defense priorities.
By investing in the right resources
and infrastructure – and keeping the
public informed – the government is
visibly showing its commitment to
dedicated and centralised oversight
when it comes to the nation’s cyber
security functions.
Organisations can follow the
government’s lead through enacting
strong cyber security measures. This
includes embracing the reality that
cyber security is more than simply
‘nice thing to have’, but rather a
business imperative that is essential
to protecting an organisation’s
reputation.
Make cyber security a way of life
The Singapore government
continues to make cyber security
a national interest. It has recently
reframed the issue to include ‘cyber
diplomacy’ – building alliances with
other countries, both to exchange
expertise, such as the latest in attack
methods, and to regularly exercise
and test its defences. To that end
the CSA has signed bilateral cyber
agreements with five countries:
France, India, the Netherlands, the
United Kingdom and the United
States. The agreement with the US,
signed in August, is the first cyber
agreement between an ASEAN
nation and the US. This opens the
door to regular exchanges on cyber
issues and gives Singapore a voice
when the larger countries try to
shape global cyber norms.
While it’s still early days, the
Singapore government has built a
solid foundation for cyber security’s
position in the country’s defense and
technology narrative.
Organisations should consider
leveraging their internal
communications channels and
working with their communications
teams to bring their employees
on a similar journey, through a
compelling internal strategy that
can turn awareness into action,
galvanising employees into active
advocates for cyber security.
JeanTanisaDirectorbasedinSingapore.
13
Singapore announced its
Smart Nation initiative in
2014
with the aim to support
better living, stronger
communities, and create
more opportunities for all,
by leveraging advances in
digital technology.
Singapore sets the tone for cyber security measures
Source:BrunswickInsight,2016.
Ready to boycott a business?
What would you do in response to a breach?
Breaches are a test of faith
How much do you trust companies to keep your data secure, compared to a year ago?
Trust Less
Trust the same amount
Trust More
Unsure
Stop buying from that company
Encourage family and friends not to use
that company’s products or services
Buy less frequently from that company
Post a critical comment on their social
media
Write a negative online review
Percentages do not total 100, due to multiple responses.
52%
42%
23%
21%
21%
43%
38%
16%
Trust Less
Trust the Same Amount
Trust More
Unsure
Trust Less
Trust the Same Amount
Trust More
Unsure

14. 14
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s
November 2016 decision to
eliminate 86 per cent of the
currency in circulation amounts to
the most extraordinary redesign
of economic fundamentals
since free-market reforms were
unveiled in the country 25 years
ago.
By inception, design and scale, this
initiative bears the strong imprint of
Mr Modi himself: it was shrouded in
secrecy (Nobel Laureate Amartya Sen
talks of a ‘despotic action’); its vision
is transformational and laudable;
and its scale fits the Modi model of
sweeping, impatient change. For
foreign investors, uncertainty has
edged up. Many economists say
fourth quarter GDP (four months to
end March 2017) will decline. The long
queues outside banks and the images
of grief attest to the real, daily pain of
ordinary people.
Beyond India, demonetisation is
hurting the large Indian diaspora in
the UAE, Singapore and elsewhere,
who regularly send money home.
Many banks and money changers in
international markets are refusing
to accept rupees, significantly
complicating financial transactions
for Indian expatriates. Additionally,
concerns over money laundering via
air travel have prompted Indian tax
authorities and even civil aviation
authorities to implement new
restrictive measures curbing travel.
Why, then, has Mr Modi risked
a record of credible economic
management over the past 30
months of his prime ministership?
The government is at the halfway
mark in the electoral cycle, and its
attention is assuredly fixed on a string
of critical regional elections in 2017,
and a general one two years later. This
middle point, then, has been judged
appropriate (in a country where there
is never a best time, only a least bad
time for tough decisions) for a policy
change of profound boldness by a PM
under intense political and popular
pressure to deliver on his multiple
electoral promises, especially on
manufacturing and job creation.
For his part, Mr Modi has argued,
first, that demonetisation was aimed
at removing black (unaccounted)
money, which runs deeply through
Indian business and political life, and
is used to fund terrorism. But the
PM has progressively nuanced his
case by talking of a parallel objective,
a structural shift to a ‘cashless
economy’. Laudable, yes, but for now
both stubbornly Panglossian goals
(another Modi characteristic).
Only about 1 per cent of India’s 1.25
billion population pays income tax,
which explains why India has one of
the lowest tax to GDP and highest
cash to GDP ratios in the world.
Most tax payers are the urban middle
class, who are big users of credit cards
(easing the pain of demonetisation)
but also hoarders of black cash to
store their unaccounted wealth.
The greater pain, and tragedy, has
been felt in rural India, where an
estimated 600 million people depend
on daily wages from farming in local
economies that run wholly on cash.
There is pain but seemingly little
overt criticism in rural India, even
though many experts such as Kaushik
Basu, a former economic advisor to
the government of India, insist that
‘the worst may be yet to come’.
14
Demonetisation in India
The sheer scale of India’s demonetisation
policy will have a profound impact on Indians
at home and abroad.
About 1 per cent of India’s
1.25 billion
population pays income tax,
which explains why India
has one of the lowest tax
to GDP and highest cash to
GDP ratios in the world.
Connectivity

15. 15
Politicians belonging to the ruling
BJP, and others too, talk of support
among ‘ordinary voters’ tired of the
corrupt primacy of black money that
has persistently push them out of the
queue for anything. Concurrently, the
government had taken big steps to
roll out financial inclusion among the
rural poor. An estimated 233 million
people remain unbanked, which
means cash is still king across a vast
geography and demographic segment.
One institutional casualty of
demonetisation has been the
Reserve Bank of India, the central
bank, sidelined ahead of last year’s
announcement and humbled
afterwards. The RBI, a globally
respected body, has announced as
many as 60 forced rule changes -
averaging two a day to end December,
the PM’s own deadline for having
sorted things out - to keep ahead of
the fantastic dynamics of a situation
whose outcome remains uncertain.
KhozemMerchant(Partner),AzharKhan
(Director)andPragniKapadia(Associate)
arewiththeMumbaiofficeofBrunswick.
15
Beyond India,
demonetisation is hurting
the large Indian diaspora
in the UAE, Singapore and
elsewhere, who regularly
send money home. Many
banks and money changers
in international markets
are refusing to accept
rupees, significantly
complicating financial
transactions for Indian
expatriates.
Image:Shoppingstreet,Mumbai,India.
Demonetisation in India

16. 16
Across Africa, improved and
cheaper connectivity is enabling
access to a wide range of services
that help overcome social and
economic issues.
Mobile devices linked to faster
broadbandnetworksarefuellingstart-
up businesses, creating new income
streams for the growing middle class,
and also driving new tax revenues for
governments.
Notwithstanding, a number of
challenges must be overcome for the
digital revolution to truly become
a reality for the majority of people
on the continent. A new report by
industry association GSMA points out
that that less than half of Africa’s 1.2
billion people are mobile subscribers.
Even fewer have access to the
Internet or 3G services, according to
International Telecommunication
Union statistics.
The reasons include unaffordability
and a lack of infrastructure,
particularly in poor rural areas where
people are scattered in remote
villages.Thismaychangeasayouthful
and increasingly educated African
population continues to urbanise
and incomes rise. Furthermore,
innovation is making previously
unviable areas more attractive and
driving down costs, allowing firms to
make a profit from customers who do
not use their phones much.
Companies like IHS are using solar
energy instead of more expensive and
harder to source diesel to power cell
phone towers across Africa. Liquid
Telecom, majority-owned by Econet
Global, is investing aggressively in
international connectivity, fibre
networks, data centres and Internet
platforms across eastern, central
and southern Africa. Having recently
acquired Neotel in South Africa,
Liquid Telecom is now able to offer
corporate customers access via a
single connection to over 40,000 km
of cross border, national and metro
fibre networks across 12 countries.
International giants have also entered
the fray. In a bid to bring the Internet
to remote areas, Google’s Project
Link is installing fibre networks in
places like Ghana and Uganda, while
Facebook is forging ahead with its
Internet.org project despite a recent
satellite failure.
Investments are ramping up and
there has been a proliferation of new
tech start-ups. According to GSMA,
there are approximately 310 active
tech hubs across the region, including
180 accelerators or incubators.
They develop myriad third-party
messaging, billing, location, mobile
money, commerce and entertainment
solutions that are designed to appeal
to local interests, cultures and
languages.
Seeing the opportunity, cellphone
giant MTN is also moving fast to
transition into a digital service player.
It sees exponential growth potential
in providing an inter-connected data
platform that offers enticing services
that cater for the ‘digital life’ of its
240 million customers across Africa
and the Middle East. MTN Group VP
for Strategy and M&A Stephen van
Coller is excited by the convergence
of technologies. While these can be
disruptive for traditional telecom
operators, he points out the mobile
phone – and increasingly the smart
phone – is at the centre of the digital
revolution.
Consumers have a deeply personal
experience with their mobile device,
which is never very far away from
them, and the trend to smart phones
is well underway. According to the
GSMA, smartphone connections
almost doubled over the last two years
to reach 226 million, accounting for a
quarter of total connections. Driven by
the increasing availability of low-cost
devices, Africa will add a further half
a billion smartphone connections by
2020, taking the adoption rate to more
than half of total connections.
Smart phones today already
automatically access fibre or wi-fi
networks in the home, office or
coffee shop; and combined with the
proliferation of WhatsApp and similar
applications, mobile operators know
they will to continue to lose traditional
voice revenues. The advent of ‘soft
SIM cards’, which will allow customers
to easily swap between fixed, mobile
and Internet operators at just at one
click will exacerbate this.
“This means you have to manage
churn by managing your customer
relationship very differently,” says
van Coller, adding that MTN is well
Africa is on the cusp of a digital
revolution
However, a number of challenges must
be overcome to make this a reality.
16
Connectivity

17. 17
positioned to manage most of its 240
million customers’ digital lives.
MTN already knows its customer’s
location, identity and billing
addresses; and with 33 million mobile
wallet customers, it also knows these
customers’ transaction history. It is
for this reason that MTN is investing
heavily in behavioural analytics over
social media, location and payments –
this information is vital to its strategic
ambition to monetise and access the
ecosystems around the digital life of
its customers.
Van Coller believes that Jack Ma of
Alibaba has got this right. Ma has been
able to successfully mine customers’
transactional data, thus connecting
millions of small businesses to the
world. This is the kind of information
that a traditional telco like China
Telcom would have had but left
dormant. For MTN the lessons are
profound – if it does not leverage and
monetize the transactional data it
already has, someone else will do this.
With global giants like Google scaling
up, one must keep innovating and
ensure ‘stickiness’ of customers so
that they do not churn.
“You must make your ecosystem
the best ecosystem for people to be
there because you can no longer lock
them in. It has to be about a great
experience,” says van Coller.
An area that is attracting competition
is in ‘fintech’, particularly as mobile
devices and block chain technologies
promise to lower the cost of banking
and drive financial inclusion. Initial
research from MTN’s customer base
shows that 80 per cent of customers
using basic mobile money services are
first time financial services users.
There are clear benefits for those that
get it right. TheEconomist, referencing
an MIT report, highlights that Kenya’s
Mpesa mobile money service resulted
in 2 per cent of Kenyan households
being lifted out of poverty between
2008 and 2014. Similar payment
services in countries like Mozambique
and Zimbabwe are thriving but
the South African market, with its
established banking and stringent
regulatory system, has been harder to
crack.
While high costs have made mobile
money offerings unattractive to
bottom of the pyramid customers,
plunging smart phone prices and
cheaper business models that target
under-banked customers effectively
could be the game changers.
What is clear is that the social impact
of increased connectivity and new
digital services have significant
knock multiplier effects, stimulating
economic growth due to new
investments and the creation of new
businesses. According GSMA, for
every 10 per cent increase in phone
penetration in developing countries,
productivity improved by 4 percentage
points. A doubling in mobile data
usage increased annual growth in GDP
per person by half a percentage point.
But for the digital revolution to truly
address the continent’s social and
economic challenges, particularly in
hard to reach rural areas, cost and
regulatory barriers must be overcome.
Governments too must come to
the party by providing consistent
regulatory environments, including
transparent tax regimes and timely
access to spectrum. This requires
businesses to better articulate their
role in society and to highlight shared
value. Only by working together will
the private and public sectors jointly
be able to overcome current barriers
to the digital revolution, thus leading
to significant growth across the
continent.
MarinaBidoliisaPartnerwiththe
JohannesburgofficeofBrunswick.
17
Africa is on the cusp of digital revolution
Image: The youth are leading the digital revolution in Africa

18. 18
Upcoming Events
OTC Pharma Asia
Singapore
6-9 March 2017
Blockchain Africa
Johannesburg, South
Africa
1 - 3 March 2017
18
Blackhat Asia
Singapore
Africa
28-31 March 2017
Annual Invesment Meeting
Dubai, UAE
Africa
2-4 April 2017
BlockCon Asia
Singapore
Africa
28-29 March 2017
India@70
Delhi
Africa
29-31 March 2017

19. 1919
South Africa
Marina Bidoli
Partner
UAE
Alex Blake-Milton
Partner
Hassan Fattah
Partner
James Allan
Associate
Singapore
Kate Holgate
Partner
Jean Tan
Director
India
Khozem Merchant
Partner
Azhar Khan
Director
For more information, please contact ISMEA@brunswickgroup.com.
The ISMEA Group: