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Due Diligence

Your Offensive Line, Your Offensive
             Weapon
Care and diligence bring luck.
Thomas Fuller
Why Due Diligence is Important
Returns are positively correlated to hours spent on
due diligence

                   More than 40
                   hours = 7.1x
                   returns

                         Less than 20
                         hours = 1.1x
                         returns
What is the right amount of due
               diligence?
• Due Diligence Sweet Spot ~ 40 hours
  – Not an exact science and depends on the deal
• More doesn’t correlate to higher returns
  – Diminishing returns after initial threshold met
• Need to be intentional and deliberate when you
  perform due diligence – in other words:

  Know what you are looking for and where to
  look for it.
Due Diligence Process



                       Phase II – Deep Due
Phase I – High Level   Diligence
     Sniff Test        • Using Mullins Framework
                       • Due Diligence Checklist
The Seven Domains of
           Attractive Opportunities
              Market Domains                    Industry Domains

Macro         Market Attractiveness                 Industry Attractiveness
Level
                                 Mission,       Ability to
                                 Aspirations,   Execute
                                 Propensity     on CSFs
                                 for Risk
                                         Team
                                        Domains
Micro
                                   Connectedness up
Level                             and down Value Chain


              Target Segment Benefits              Sustainable Advantage
               and Attractiveness


        © 2006 John W. Mullins
Due Diligence
                          Phase I

Management Team            Produce/Service
                                                     IP Potential
   Experience                Description



                                                      Valuation
                                                Reasonableness, High-
Target Market Clarity     Industry Definition      Level Financial
                                                   Summary, Exit
                                                     Possibilities



                           High-Level Risk
                            Assessment
Due Diligence
                          Phase II

                           Product/service
Management Team          comparison to direct        IP research and
    Analysis                 and indirect              investigation
                         competitive offerings


Details on the target
                                                 Valuation comparisons
 market and break-        Competitive matrix
                                                 and detailed financial
   down on the             with positioning
                                                 analysis, exit scenarios
company’s marketing            analysis
                                                     and target ROI
         plan



                             Detailed risk
                             assessment
Due Diligence Product/Service
• Features versus benefits
• What is the pain being solved?
• How does the product/service’s benefits
  relieve that pain?
• Current product/service alternatives?
• IP potential?
Micro-Market Analysis
• What benefits does the offering provide
  that other solutions don’t?
Micro-Market Analysis
•What customer pain will the offering resolve?
•How strong of an incentive do customers have
to give you their money?
  –Evidence?
•Will customers purchase at a price that works
for the business model?
Micro-Market Analysis
• What evidence can you provide to show that
  your target market has the potential to grow?
• Are there other segments that could benefit
  from a related offering? How do they benefit?
• Can you develop capabilities that are
  transferable from one segment to another?
Micro-Market Analysis
• How attractive is the micro-market?
  – Fit market into one of three buckets:
     • Attractive
     • Fairly attractive
     • Not attractive
Macro-Market Analysis
                           • Secondary research
How big is the market?     • Number of potential customers



                           • One year growth?
How fast has the market    • Two year growth?
  grown historically?      • Five year growth?


                           • Next 6 months?
How fast will the market   • Next 2 years?
         grow?             • Next 5 years?



What trends will affect    • Economic, demographic, sociocultural, technological, regulatory
    the market?              or natural.
Macro-Market Analysis
• How attractive is the Macro-Market?
  – Fit market into one of three buckets:
     • Attractive
     • Fairly attractive
     • Not attractive
Industry Analysis
Porter’s Five Forces
Industry Analysis
      Blue Ocean or Bloody Ocean




“Blue oceans….denote all the industries not in existence today – the
unknown market space, untainted by competition. In blue oceans,
demand is created rather than fought over. There is ample
opportunity for growth that is both profitable and rapid.”

Bloody Oceans – industry characteristics where companies fight
and primarily compete on price.
Industry Analysis
• How attractive is the Industry?
  – Fit industry into one of three buckets:
     • Attractive
     • Fairly attractive
     • Not attractive
Management Team
              Execution Risk
• Does the management team have the relevant
  experience necessary to execute the business
  plan?
  – Industry Skills?
  – Technical Skills?
  – Transferable Skills?
• Passion?
Management Analysis
• How attractive is the Management Team?
  – Fit into one of three buckets:
     • Attractive
     • Fairly attractive
     • Not attractive
Financial Analysis
• What is the company’s revenue Model
• Are the revenue projections realistic?
  – Has the founders included the details on ‘how’
    they plan on achieving these projections?
• Gross, operational and net margins?
• Sources and uses of funds?
• Projections
  – Management, downside and upside scenarios?
  – ROI for investors?
Financial Analysis
• How attractive are the financial terms?
  – Fit into one of three buckets:
     • Attractive
     • Fairly attractive
     • Not attractive
Risk Assessment
• Industry Risk
  – Changes to Porter’s Five Forces
• Market (Product/Service) Risk
  – Changes in customer preference
• Financial Risk
  – Appropriateness of fund sources and uses
• Execution Risk
  – Management team execution ability
Due Diligence Checklist
- Attachment
Efficient Due Diligence
• How can you work with others to share in due
  diligence tasks?
  – Angel groups/forums
     • Deal flow
     • Collaboration
     • Leverage investor specialties/experience
  – Lead investor strategy
  – Due diligence delegation based on specialties
Q&A




     Ryan Goral
www.separtners-llc.com
 Twitter: @ryangoral

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ACS Due Diligence Presentation, Ryan Goral

  • 1. Due Diligence Your Offensive Line, Your Offensive Weapon
  • 2. Care and diligence bring luck. Thomas Fuller
  • 3. Why Due Diligence is Important Returns are positively correlated to hours spent on due diligence More than 40 hours = 7.1x returns Less than 20 hours = 1.1x returns
  • 4. What is the right amount of due diligence? • Due Diligence Sweet Spot ~ 40 hours – Not an exact science and depends on the deal • More doesn’t correlate to higher returns – Diminishing returns after initial threshold met • Need to be intentional and deliberate when you perform due diligence – in other words: Know what you are looking for and where to look for it.
  • 5. Due Diligence Process Phase II – Deep Due Phase I – High Level Diligence Sniff Test • Using Mullins Framework • Due Diligence Checklist
  • 6. The Seven Domains of Attractive Opportunities Market Domains Industry Domains Macro Market Attractiveness Industry Attractiveness Level Mission, Ability to Aspirations, Execute Propensity on CSFs for Risk Team Domains Micro Connectedness up Level and down Value Chain Target Segment Benefits Sustainable Advantage and Attractiveness © 2006 John W. Mullins
  • 7. Due Diligence Phase I Management Team Produce/Service IP Potential Experience Description Valuation Reasonableness, High- Target Market Clarity Industry Definition Level Financial Summary, Exit Possibilities High-Level Risk Assessment
  • 8. Due Diligence Phase II Product/service Management Team comparison to direct IP research and Analysis and indirect investigation competitive offerings Details on the target Valuation comparisons market and break- Competitive matrix and detailed financial down on the with positioning analysis, exit scenarios company’s marketing analysis and target ROI plan Detailed risk assessment
  • 9. Due Diligence Product/Service • Features versus benefits • What is the pain being solved? • How does the product/service’s benefits relieve that pain? • Current product/service alternatives? • IP potential?
  • 10. Micro-Market Analysis • What benefits does the offering provide that other solutions don’t?
  • 11. Micro-Market Analysis •What customer pain will the offering resolve? •How strong of an incentive do customers have to give you their money? –Evidence? •Will customers purchase at a price that works for the business model?
  • 12. Micro-Market Analysis • What evidence can you provide to show that your target market has the potential to grow? • Are there other segments that could benefit from a related offering? How do they benefit? • Can you develop capabilities that are transferable from one segment to another?
  • 13. Micro-Market Analysis • How attractive is the micro-market? – Fit market into one of three buckets: • Attractive • Fairly attractive • Not attractive
  • 14. Macro-Market Analysis • Secondary research How big is the market? • Number of potential customers • One year growth? How fast has the market • Two year growth? grown historically? • Five year growth? • Next 6 months? How fast will the market • Next 2 years? grow? • Next 5 years? What trends will affect • Economic, demographic, sociocultural, technological, regulatory the market? or natural.
  • 15. Macro-Market Analysis • How attractive is the Macro-Market? – Fit market into one of three buckets: • Attractive • Fairly attractive • Not attractive
  • 17. Industry Analysis Blue Ocean or Bloody Ocean “Blue oceans….denote all the industries not in existence today – the unknown market space, untainted by competition. In blue oceans, demand is created rather than fought over. There is ample opportunity for growth that is both profitable and rapid.” Bloody Oceans – industry characteristics where companies fight and primarily compete on price.
  • 18. Industry Analysis • How attractive is the Industry? – Fit industry into one of three buckets: • Attractive • Fairly attractive • Not attractive
  • 19. Management Team Execution Risk • Does the management team have the relevant experience necessary to execute the business plan? – Industry Skills? – Technical Skills? – Transferable Skills? • Passion?
  • 20. Management Analysis • How attractive is the Management Team? – Fit into one of three buckets: • Attractive • Fairly attractive • Not attractive
  • 21. Financial Analysis • What is the company’s revenue Model • Are the revenue projections realistic? – Has the founders included the details on ‘how’ they plan on achieving these projections? • Gross, operational and net margins? • Sources and uses of funds? • Projections – Management, downside and upside scenarios? – ROI for investors?
  • 22. Financial Analysis • How attractive are the financial terms? – Fit into one of three buckets: • Attractive • Fairly attractive • Not attractive
  • 23. Risk Assessment • Industry Risk – Changes to Porter’s Five Forces • Market (Product/Service) Risk – Changes in customer preference • Financial Risk – Appropriateness of fund sources and uses • Execution Risk – Management team execution ability
  • 25. Efficient Due Diligence • How can you work with others to share in due diligence tasks? – Angel groups/forums • Deal flow • Collaboration • Leverage investor specialties/experience – Lead investor strategy – Due diligence delegation based on specialties
  • 26. Q&A Ryan Goral www.separtners-llc.com Twitter: @ryangoral