A one-day Strategic Foresight Conference took place at IFPRI Headquarters in Washington DC on November 7, 2014. Participants from leading global modeling groups, collaborating CGIAR centers and research programs, and other partners reviewed new long-term projections for global agriculture from IFPRI and other leading institutions, examined the potential impacts of climate change and other key challenges, and discussed the role of foresight work in identifying and supporting promising solutions. Topics included: Long-term outlook and challenges for food & agriculture Addressing the challenges Foresight in the CGIAR Webcast video of morning sessions available on Global Futures program website here: http://globalfutures.cgiar.org/2014/11/03/global-futures-strategic-foresight-conference/

1. IMPACT Model, Baseline, and
Scenarios: New Developments
Mark W. Rosegrant, Keith Wiebe, Sherman
Robinson, Daniel Mason-D’Croz, Shahnila Islam, and
Nicostrato Perez
Environment and Production Technology
International Food Policy Research Institute
Washington, DC, USA
Global Futures and Strategic Foresight Conference
IFPRI
Washington, DC
November 7, 2014

2. Outline
 Improvements in IMPACT 3
 New Look at
• Climate Change under IPCC AR5
• Livestock Scenarios
 Conclusions

3. IMPACT Model System

4. What is new in IMPACT?
 Geographic and crop disaggregation
• 58 agricultural commodities
 Prices and markets
• Three markets: farm gate, national, international
• Tradability: traded and non-traded commodities
 Land allocation to crops
 Activity-Commodity framework
 New Water models: hydrology, water basin
management, water stress on crops
 Modularity of the IMPACT model system

5. IMPACT 3 Spatial Disaggregation
159
• Countries
154
• Water Basins
320
• Food
Production
Units

6. Land Allocation to Crops
 Land types: irrigated and rainfed land
 Demand for land by crop is a function of commodity
price and shadow price of land
 Total supplies of irrigated and rainfed land shift in
response to irrigation investment in each region
(FPU)
 Shadow price of land varies to equate supply and
demand for land by type and region
• Solution determines allocation of land to crops

7. Oilseed Activity-Commodity Value
Chain
Activity
• Soybean
Farm
(jsoyb)
• Demands
land,
fertilizer,
labor
Activity Output
• Soybean
Commodity
(csoyb)
Activity
• Soybean
Processing
(jsbol)
• Demands
soybeans
(csoyb) at
market price
Processed
Commodities
• Soybean
Oil (csbol)
• Soybean
Meal
(csbml)

8. IMPACT – A Suite of Linked Models
 Modularity: “a la carte”
• Use only the modules you need
• Modules can be run in “stand-alone” mode as
separate models (e.g., water models)
 Linking modules
• Model system is driven by core multimarket
economic model (IMPACT 3)
• Standardized data transfer between modules
- Information flows: dynamic interaction with
core model

9. Baseline and Climate Change Results
 Core drivers: population, GDP, land
 Climate change:
• Suite of Global Circulation Models (GCMs)
of climate change
• Different assumptions about climate
drivers: socioeconomic and greenhouse gas
pathways
 Changes in technology

10. Sources of Technology Change
 Underlying Intrinsic Productivity Rates (IPRs)
• Exogenous trends in yields
 Climate Change:
• Water: Hydrology, water basin management, water
stress on crop yields
• Temperature: Crop Models (DSSAT)
 Market Effects
• Changes in prices affect farmer behavior and yields
(e.g. fertilizer use)

11. Core Drivers – Population, GDP, and
Land (SSP2)

12. New Look at Climate Change
under IPCC-AR 5

13. Climate Change Scenarios:
Terminology
 AR4
• SRES – Special Report on Emissions Scenarios
 AR5
• SSPs – Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
• RCPs – Representative Concentration Pathways
•SSP
•RCP
SRES (A1B,
B1, etc.)

14. RCP – Climate Trends
 RCP 2.6 is below
anything from
AR4
 RCP 6 is most
similar to A1B
 RCP 8.5 is higher
than anything
AR4

15. Climate Change - Base Suite
 NoCC – Historical climate
 Four GCMs, IPCC-AR5, with one Shared
Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2) and
Representative Concentration Pathway
(RCP) 8.5
• IPSL, Hadley, MIROC, GFDL
 Climate Change Baseline – with climate
change, HadGEM2, RCP 8.5 and SSP2

16. Change in Cereal Yield between 2010
and 2050 under Baseline

17. Change in Wheat Yield under Baseline, 2010, 2050:
Climate Change Effects on Top 10 Wheat Producers

18. Change in Pulse Yield between 2010
and 2050 under Baseline

19. Change in Fruits and Vegetables Yield
between 2010 and 2050 under Baseline

20. Change in Roots and Tubers Yield
between 2010 and 2050 under Baseline

21. Change in Cereal Prices between 2010
and 2050 under Baseline

22. Change in Pulse Prices between 2010
and 2050 under Baseline

23. Change in Roots and Tubers Prices
between 2010 and 2050 under Baseline

24. Change in Fruits and Vegetables Prices
between 2010 and 2050 under Baseline

25. New Look at Livestock Scenarios
Under Climate Change

26. Sustainability of the Livestock Revolution
 Impact of climate change
• Reduced crop yield, higher feed prices
 Slow down of production growth
• Production growth started to decelerate in the last
decade
 Environmental concerns with livestock
development
• GHG emission
• Pollution of surface and groundwater
• Soil compaction, erosion and loss of fertility
• Additional new land for feed-grain production

27. IMPACT Model and Baseline Projections
to 2050
Acronyms, Abbreviations and Definitions
EAP - East Asia and Pacific
EECA - Eastern Europe and Central Asia
LAC - Latin America and the Caribbean
MENA - Middle East and North Africa
NAM - North America
OCE - Oceania
SAS - South Asia
SSA - Sub-Saharan Africa
WEU - Western Europe
Mutton - sheep meat
Chevon - goat meat
Baseline: with climate change, HadGEM2, RCP 8.5 and SSP2

28. BASELINE PROJECTIONS:
Production, Consumption,
World Prices, Trade

29. Total Meat Production: Historical trends and
baseline projections, by commodity, region, 1980-
2010 and 2010-2050 with climate change
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
millionmt
Developed Countries – Meat Production
Beef Pork Poultry Mutton/Chevon
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
millionmt
Developing Countries – Meat Production
Beef Pork Poultry Mutton/Chevon

30. Total Meat and Milk Products Demand: Historical trends
and baseline projections by region, 1980-2010 and 2010-
2050 with climate change
0
100
200
300
400
500
1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
millionmt
Demand for Meat
Developed Developing
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
millionmt
Demand for Milk
Developed Developing
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
millionmt
WEU
SSA
SAS
OCE
NAM
MENA
LAC
EECA
EAP
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
millionmt
WEU
SSA
SAS
OCE
NAM
MENA
LAC
EECA
EAP

31. Per Capita Consumption/Demand of Meat and Milk:
Historical trends and baseline projections, by region, 1980,
1990, 2000, 2010, 2030 and 2050 with climate change
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
EAP EECA LAC MENA NAM OCE SAS SSA WEU
Kg/capita/year
Meat Consumption/Demand
1980 1990 2000 2010 2030 2050
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
EAP EECA LAC MENA NAM OCE SAS SSA WEU
Kg/capita/year
Milk Consumption/Demand
1980 1990 2000 2010 2030 2050

32. World Prices of Meat and Milk Products:
Baseline projections, 2015-2050
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
$/mt
World Prices: $/mt
Beef
Pork
Poultry
Mutton/Chevon
Milk
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
1.40
1.50
1.60
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
PriceIndex
World Prices: Relative to 2010
Beef
Pork
Poultry
Mutton/Chevon
Milk

33. Net Trade of Meat and Milk Products: Historical trends
and baseline projections in developing countries, 1980-
2010 and 2010-2050 with climate change
-0.11
-6.56
0.33
-7.43
-1.52
-9.55
-5.02
-21.87
-17.59
-30.76
-24.25
-9.38
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
Meat Milk
millionmt
Developing Countries – Net Trade
1980 1990 2000 2010 2030 2050
0.47 0.03
-0.43 -0.19
0.41 0.23
-0.22 -0.09
0.21
-0.55 -0.93
-0.25
0.18
-3.35
-1.16 -0.70-0.46
-9.97
-5.64
-1.52
1.32
-14.15
-9.39
-2.03
-16
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
Beef Pork Poultry Mutton/Chevon
millionmt
1980 1990 2000 2010 2030 2050

34. Alternative Scenarios for
Livestock Production,
Consumption, Price, Trade

35. Alternative Livestock Development
Policies
 Intensive Growth in all countries (Int-All)
• Technological improvement across all livestock producing countries
• Increased investment in agricultural R&D.
• Productivity increase equivalent to 10% in 2050 over the Baseline in all
countries.
 Intensive Growth in developing countries only
(Int-Dvg)
• Technological improvement through agricultural R&D and
• Increased extension of existing modern production technologies
• Closing the yield gap between developed and developing countries.
• Productivity increase equivalent to 20% in 2050 over the Baseline in
developing countries only.

36. Alternative Livestock Development
Policies
 Expansive Growth in all countries (Exp-All)
• Intensive and extensive livestock development strategy.
• Combines yield improvement (intensive) and increases in
stocks/production units (extensive)
• Productivity increase equivalent to 10% and additional 10% increase in
the number of animals/stock in 2050 over the Baseline in all livestock
producing countries.
 Expansive Growth in developing countries only
(Exp-Dvg)
• Intensive and extensive livestock development strategy focused on
developing countries only
• Additional yield-gap extension strategy

37. Alternative Livestock Development
Policies
 Expansive Growth in developing countries only
(Exp-Dvg)…continued
• Higher stocks and livestock production units to localize production in
relatively increasing demand areas
• Productivity increase equivalent to 20% and additional 20% increase in
the number of animals/stock in 2050 over the Baseline, in developing
countries only
 Baseline – business-as-usual
• Historical trends in socio-economic parameters, level of investment in
research and technology development, population and GDP growth –
are to continue
• No external intervention and exogenous shocks

38. Meat and Milk Production: Comparative projections
by livestock development scenario, % deviation from
baseline, 2050
4.7 4.2
3.4 3
9.9
8.9
7
6.2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
World - Meat World - Milk
%fromBaseline
Int-dvg Int-all Exp-dvg Exp-all
-8
11
2.8 3.7
-15.9
22.9
5.8 7.7
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Developed - Meat Developing - Meat
%fromBaseline
Int-dvg Int-all Exp-dvg Exp-all
-8.5
10.5
2.7 3.2
-16.7
21.6
5.6 6.5
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Developed -Milk Developing - Milk
%fromBaseline
Int-dvg Int-all Exp-dvg Exp-all

39. -18.1
-14.2
-16.9
-23.8
-11
-12.7 -12.4 -13.1
-15.3
-8.4
-33.6
-27.5
-31.9
-42.4
-21.4
-23.8 -23.4
-24.6
-28.3
-16.2
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
Beef Pork Poultry Mutton/Chevon Milk
%fromBaseline
Int-dvg Int-all Exp-dvg Exp-all
World Prices of Meat and Milk Products: Comparative
projections by livestock development scenario, %
deviation from baseline, 2050

40. -15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2010 - Beef 2050 - Beef 2010 - Pork 2050 - Pork 2010 - Poultry 2050 - Poultry 2010 - Mutton 2050 - Mutton
millionmt
Int-dvg Int-all Exp-dvg Exp-all Baseline
Net Trade of Meat Products: Comparative projections by
livestock development scenario in developing countries,
2010 and 2050

41. -30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2010 - Meat 2050 - Meat 2010 - Milk 2050 - Milk
millionmt
Int-dvg Int-all-dvg Exp-dvg Exp-all Baseline
Net Trade of Meat and Milk Products: Comparative
projections by livestock development scenario in
developing countries, 2010 and 2050

42. Conclusions

43.  Climate change impacts on yields vary significantly by
crop and by region
 Yield impacts in 2050 tend to be smaller than increases
due to underlying improvements in productivity
 Even small yield losses can have significant price impacts,
with important implications for food security
 Research in progress shows that improvements in traits
such as drought tolerance and heat tolerance can help
offset expected losses due to climate change
 Investment in agricultural research for technology and
productivity improvement is essential
Conclusions and Policy Implications

44.  Need for further work on impacts under a range of
climate and socioeconomic scenarios
 IFPRI is collaborating with other leading global economic
modeling teams through the Agricultural Model
Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP)
Conclusions and Policy Implications

45. Conclusions and Policy Implications
 Rapid growth in livestock demand in developing
countries continues
 Demand is better met through expansionary policies
focused on developing countries—but trade-offs need to
be reduced
 Investment in livestock research for technology and
productivity improvement needs to be increased
 Growth and development of the livestock sector has
positive impacts on food production, trade and food
security
 New IMPACT livestock module will further address
impact of rapid growth on pastures and grasslands