The Global Futures and Strategic Foresight (GFSF) team met in Rome from May 25-28, 2015 to review progress towards current work plans, discuss model improvements and technical parameters, and consider possible contributions by the GFSF program to the CRP Phase II planning process. All 15 CGIAR Centers were represented at the meeting.

1. www.ciat.cgiar.org
Global Futures and Strategic Foresight:
Update for Team Meeting
Steven Prager – Integrated Modeling
Decision and Policy Analysis, CIAT – Cali, Colombia
GFSF Team Meeting – 25-28 May 2015
Rome

2. Highlights
• Update on key crops
– Where we’re at with beans, rice and cassava.
• Methodological side issues
– Turning ALC into a virtual greenhouse.
– Understanding SSPs from a regional perspective.
– Side Project 1: distributional equity with ROI.
– Side Project 2: efficient portfolios of technology.
• Current and pending…

3. Beans
Priority
Setting
Cultivar
Identification
Tech
Specification
Global Crop
Modeling
Heat and drought - 
Calima, Carioca, ICTA-
OSTUA, BAT 1289 - 
Nearing completion.
In process.

4. Rice
Priority
Setting
Cultivar
Identification
Tech
Specification
Global Crop
Modeling
Heat and drought - 
Fedearroz2000 Fedearroz60
Fedearroz174, CIRAD409 - 
Nearing completion.
In process.

5. Rice – Working with FLAR
Stakeholder Ranking Categoría Tecnología All SLO
Ranking
expertos
1
Tecnologías de producción,
agronomía, manejo del cultivo
Adecuar las fechas de siembra a la
máxima oferta de radiación solar
3.74 4.08 7
2
Estudios socio-económicos,
políticos y el impactos sobre el
arroz
Evaluar los riesgos sanitarios y
ambientales del uso de plaguicidas en los
sistemas de arroz
3.66 3.89 19
3
Tecnologías de producción,
agronomía, manejo del cultivo
La gestión del agua en la producción
agrícola
3.59 3.87 3
4 Mejoras de los cultivos
Mejoramiento de variedades para obtener
mayor rendimiento
3.56 3.84 1
5 Manejo de los recursos genéticos
Detección fenotípica y/o molecular de las
variedades locales en busca de rasgos de
alto valor / nuevas fuentes / tolerancia /
resistencia al stress.
3.56 3.79 10
6
Cadenas de valor, post-cosecha,
comercialización y utilización.
Desarrollo de la competencia cadenas de
valor del arroz
3.47 3.57 16
7
Estudios socio-económicos,
políticos y el impactos sobre el
arroz
Evaluación del acceso de los pequeños
agricultores a las nuevas tecnologías
3.46 3.53 17
8 Materiales de siembra Sistemas de semillas de calidad 3.45 3.64 2
9
Cadenas de valor, post-cosecha,
comercialización y utilización.
Desarrollo de las organizaciones de
agricultores y grupos de agricultores
vinculados a los mercados
3.45 3.37 18
10 Manejo de los recursos genéticos Mantenimiento de los recursos genéticos 3.44 3.58 4

6. Cassava
• Model currently in development
– DSSAT Sprint, field validation.
• Modeling emphasis currently planned around
value chains and various policy scenarios.

7. Cassava Value Chains
• Gender issue – certain technology changes
have sizable gender consequences (e.g., easier
to peel) and also value chain implications
(need for tighter value chain).
– Take home: technologies have different effects
depending on the lens used to look at the tech.

8. Some Methodological Side-Projects
• Understanding regional appropriateness of cultivar
choices and relative performance of implemented
technologies.
• Regional emphasis also raised the question as to how
well regions and individual countries line up with SSPs.
• In several of our stakeholder interactions, equity of
distribution of benefits came up. Led to equity of
technology adoption side-study.
• Additionally, stakeholder interactions led to interest in
understand potential for analysis of portfolios…

9. Analyzing Crop Technology
We wanted to be able to justify the
selection and specification of crop
models (i.e., cultivars and tech
implementation).
Idea is to test how different models
run across a selection of different
latitudinal, elevation and climate
gradients. Similar to methodology
used in CropLife report, with
minimal variation in assumptions
regarding soils, fertilizers, etc.
Currently hoping to wrap up crop
modeling piece and moving on to
analysis.

10. Regional
Analyses
• Mapping SSPs to
regional realities
and individual
countries is a
challenge.
• Colombia has 3
FPUs…

11. Equity & Technology Adoption
0 500 1000 1500 2000
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
WFG = 4
WFG = 3
WFG = 2
WFG = 1
96%
96%
96%
96%
71%
71%
71%
71%
50%50%50%50%
38%
38%
38%
38%
%
%
Welfare Gain Map
Welfare Gain Isoquants
Adoption Rate Isoquants

12. (Re)Interpretation of Black-Scholes-Merton
parameters in the agricultural R&D context

13. Recent Visible Work Products
• Bean priority setting paper
– Agronomia Colombiana (national peer reviewed
journal)
– DAPA blog entry on beans complete.
• Rice priority setting poster
– The Rice Conference (regional mtg in Brazil)
• Foresight Modeling Workshop @ CIAT
– Science Innovation Marketplace activity during
our APR (pending).

14. Less Visible Products
• Bean cultivar analysis & report
• Rice cultivar analysis & report
• Rice research priority analysis & report

15. In progress:
Towards impact (with IMPACT)…
• Understanding the role crop improvement in
the context of climate change: A case study of
drought tolerance in beans and rice in
Colombia
– Study being developed from our with GFSF and
IDB for a volume being produced for Colombia
Bank of the Republic

16. Related activities…
• IFPRI LED Work in Colombia
– I would like to ask that the GFSF team at CIAT be involved in this
given our relationships with MADR, MADS, etc.
– It’s IMPACT related, its Colombia related, and ultimately linked
to forages (our final mandate group).
• UFL Project: Next generation plant breeding and modeling.
– CIAT has been asked to coordinate CG activities and
contribution. We have been promoting integration of IMPACT
and foresight modeling in this effort, building on existing
synergies with UFL/IFPRI/others.
• We have databases of subnational estimates of yield in
beans and rice (and some cassava) for much of ALC.
– Useful for IPRs?

17. THANKS!
s.prager@cgiar.org