A one-day Strategic Foresight Conference took place at IFPRI Headquarters in Washington DC on November 7, 2014. Participants from leading global modeling groups, collaborating CGIAR centers and research programs, and other partners reviewed new long-term projections for global agriculture from IFPRI and other leading institutions, examined the potential impacts of climate change and other key challenges, and discussed the role of foresight work in identifying and supporting promising solutions. Topics included: Long-term outlook and challenges for food & agriculture Addressing the challenges Foresight in the CGIAR Webcast video of morning sessions available on Global Futures program website here: http://globalfutures.cgiar.org/2014/11/03/global-futures-strategic-foresight-conference/

1. Goals, Progress and
Plans for 2015 – 2016
Keith Wiebe
Strategic Foresight Conference
Washington DC, 7 November 2014

2. Global Futures and Strategic Foresight is a CGIAR initiative
to improve our understanding of future challenges to
agricultural productivity, food security and environmental
sustainability – and to explore options to address them
With support from BMGF, PIM and CCAFS
as well as AgMIP, USAID and USDA

3. Objectives
1. Improved system of integrated
biophysical and economic modeling tools
2. Stronger community of practice for
scenario analysis and ex ante impact
assessment
3. Improved assessments of alternative
global futures
4. To inform research, investment and policy
decisions in the CGIAR and its partners

4. 1. Improved modeling tools
• Complete recoding of IMPACT
• Disaggregation geographically
and by commodity
• Land allocation to crops
• Improved water & crop models
• New data management system
• Modular framework
• Training

5. 2. Stronger community of practice
• 12 CGIAR centers now
participating in GFSF
• IFPRI, CIAT, CIMMYT, CIP, ICARDA,
ICRAF, ICRISAT, IITA, ILRI, IRRI,
IWMI, WorldFish
• Collaboration with other
leading global economic
modeling groups through
AgMIP

6. 3. Improved assessments
• IMPACT baseline
• AgMIP global economic
assessments
• CCAFS regional scenarios
• Analyses by centers
• GFSF promising
technologies
Rainfed Maize
(Africa)
Irrigated Wheat
(S. Asia)
Rainfed Rice
(S. + SE. Asia)
Rainfed Potato
(Asia)
Rainfed Sorghum
(Africa + India)
Rainfed Groundnut
(Africa + SE Asia)
Rainfed Cassava
(E. + S. + SE. Asia)

7. 3. Improved assessments
• Investing in data for improved modeling
• Sika Gbegbelegbe, CIMMYT
• Foresight analysis and ex ante assessment of
promising technologies to inform decision making
• Swamikannu Nedumaran, ICRISAT

8. 3. Improved assessments
• IMPACT baseline
• AgMIP global economic
assessments
• CCAFS regional scenarios
• Analyses by centers
• GFSF promising
technologies
• Role of ag technologies
• Africa regional reports
Rainfed Maize
(Africa)
Irrigated Wheat
(S. Asia)
Rainfed Rice
(S. + SE. Asia)
Rainfed Potato
(Asia)
Rainfed Sorghum
(Africa + India)
Rainfed Groundnut
(Africa + SE Asia)
Rainfed Cassava
(E. + S. + SE. Asia)

9. Challenges
1. Models and data
• Variability, production systems, biotic stresses, gender
2. Institutional
• Integrating within and across centers
• Supporting an expanding network
3. Analytical
• Harmonizing for comparison vs diverse interests
4. Linking with decision makers
• From tools to analysis to outputs to outcomes

10. Plans for 2015-16
Center Focus areas
CIAT Cassava, beans, rice; tropical forages?
CIMMYT Pests and diseases for maize and wheat, economy-wide effects
CIP Potato and sweet potato, late blight, virus models
ICARDA Conservation agriculture technologies for wheat, policy dialogue
ICRAF Agro-forestry systems, large-area crop model
ICRISAT Pearl millet, chickpea, pests and diseases, gender
IFPRI Livestock and fish models, land use, variability, nutrition
IITA Cassava, cowpea, maize, soybean
ILRI Livestock module, vaccines, feed and genetic technologies
IRRI C4 rice, submergence tolerant rice
IWMI Groundwater model and scenarios in India, China, Africa
WorldFish Fish model, global and national supply and demand scenarios

11. Additional considerations
• Broadening from original focus on “virtual crops”
• Livestock, fish commodities
• Resources, systems, management practices
• Alternate socioeconomic and emissions pathways
• Shared interests, collaboration across centers as well as with
external partners
• Training activities
• Innovation in methods and tools to fit the question
• Ownership, uptake and sustainability
• More attention to end users

12. 4. Informing decision making
• CGIAR centers
• CRPs
• RTB, Dryland Cereals, Grain Legumes; Maize,
Wheat, Dryland Systems, Livestock & Fish…
• National partners
• MENA, S & SE Asia, Latin America, Sub-Saharan
Africa, Central Asia
• Regional organizations
• ASARECA, COMESA, CORAF/WECARD, FANRPAN, FARA, FLAR
• International organizations and donors
• OECD, FAO, ADB, IDB, IFAD, WB, BMGF, DFID, USDA

13. New web tool coming soon…

14. Thank you
k.wiebe@cgiar.org