Mason d'croz (dec 2015) igf - agriculture and climate change, potential challenges
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Presentation for the International Grains Forum (www.igc.int/en/about/aboutus-pressrelease.aspx, www.igcargentina.com/eng/index.html) https://globalfutures.cgiar.org/2015/12/20/to-latin-america-for-global-connections
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Mason d'croz (dec 2015) igf - agriculture and climate change, potential challenges
- 2. Agriculture and Climate Change: Potential Challenges Daniel Mason-D’Croz International Food Policy Research Institute
- 3. Agriculture and Climate Change: Potential Challenges Challenges • Population Growth • Income growth and changing diets • Greater competition for resources • Climate change Growing threats to: • Land • Water • Environmental preservation • Biodiversity Higher food prices
- 4. Agriculture and Climate Change: Potential Challenges Global Population (millions) Global GDP (billion USD)
- 5. Agriculture and Climate Change: Potential Challenges Source: IMPACT 3.2 November 2015
- 6. Agriculture and Climate Change: Potential Challenges • Climate change is both a present and future challenge • Agriculture sector will be impacted by climate change in many ways – Increasing temperatures – Altered weather patterns – Decreasing snow-pack will challenge water management – Changing frequency and magnitude of extreme events – Glacier melt leading to raising sea levels – Acidification of oceans will threaten many aquatic species
- 7. Agriculture and Climate Change: Challenges and Opportunities • Agriculture sector not only effected by climate change but also contributes to it • Increasing number of animals and demand for crop area may increase GHG emission contributions from agriculture Source: CAIT Climate Data Explorer. 2015. Washington, DC: World Resources Institute.
- 8. Agriculture and Climate Change: Potential Challenges • Average temperature increase may be gradual, but will still require adaptation – Changing planting calendars – Some crops are already threatened by heat stress, will be stressed even more – Adapting the cropping mix (maize moving northwards) – New heat tolerant varieties could be beneficial, but require time to develop and implement – Warmer temperatures will have major consequences for pest management
- 9. Agriculture and Climate Change: Potential Challenges
- 10. Agriculture and Climate Change: Potential Challenges • Climate smart technologies have significant potential to mitigate effects of climate change • Drought and heat tolerant varieties could help mitigate negative effects of climate change • Integrated pest management could help manage changing impacts from pests and diseases
- 11. Agriculture and Climate Change: Potential Challenges Source: Rosegrant et al 2014.
- 12. Agriculture and Climate Change: Potential Challenges • Changing mean annual precipitation, as well as the variance in precipitation will increase concerns of water scarcity – Many places are already suffering water shortages today – Increased prevalence of droughts could exacerbate this – High rainfall events can be just as challenging from a water management perspective leading to floods and landslides
- 13. Agriculture and Climate Change: Challenges and Opportunities Current areas of water scarcity Precipitation change in 2050 (GFDL RCP 8.5) Precipitation change in 2050 (HGEM RCP 8.5) Source: IWMI 2006 Source: Robinson et al 2015
- 14. Agriculture and Climate Change: Challenges and Opportunities • Higher temperaturesandchanging precipitationpatterns mayleadto diminishing snowpack • Increased variationofrainfallcomplicateswater managementcould leadtoincreasing waterscarcity • Irrigationforagricultureis the largestsingle wateruse, • 70%of globalwaterwithdrawal,and90%global water consumption • Irrigatedareasaccountforless than20%of global cropland,butcontribute~40% ofcereal productionSource: Mote and Sharp, 2015
- 15. Agriculture and Climate Change: Potential Challenges • Less water + more demand = need for increased irrigation efficiency (Compared to the conventional furrow irrigation) 28% less water applied 22% more water productivity Improved Irrigation Technologies Increased water savings Increased water productivity Source: Rosegrant et al 2014.
- 16. Agriculture and Climate Change: Potential Challenges • Extreme events like droughts, floods, and hurricanes already occur • Climate change is likely to change the frequency of these events, and potentially their magnitudes • Can have very big impacts on infrastructure, and temporal access to markets, leading to price spikes – Typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines, Food prices increased by 5%, and poverty rates increased by >1% (NEDA 2014) Source: Bender et al 2010
- 17. Agriculture and Climate Change: Potential Challenges • Natural environmental patterns like El Niño could be altered • Leading to significant yield impacts for cereals key sources for global calorie supply Source: Liberto 2014
- 18. Agriculture and Climate Change: Potential Challenges Source: Iizumi et al 2014
- 19. Agriculture and Climate Change: Potential Challenges • World is a complicated and interconnected place • Small changes across multiple dimensions can be force multiplying, leading to unexpected non-linear effects. • Droughts can lead to plagues – Coffee rust after droughts • Lloyd’s Risk Report already considering potential effect of multiple extreme events happening simultaneously
- 20. Agriculture and Climate Change: Potential Challenges • Climate change may change the distribution of human diseases (malaria, dengue, etc.) – Human pandemics can destabilize regions including agriculture • Increasing challenges to cope may lead to more conflict over resources, which in turn could lead to larger human migrations • Transportation system and agricultural markets are vulnerable – Rising sea level may lead to more damage to ports – Higher temperatures lead to deterioration of roads and rail – Greater evaporation and less precipitation can make river and lake transportation more costly
- 21. Agriculture and Climate Change: Potential Challenges • Food security is made up of 4 components: – Food supply – Access to food – Stability of food system – Quality of food (safety, and nutrition) • Climate change threatens global food security across all 4 components
- 22. Agriculture and Climate Change: Potential Challenges • Challenges posed by climate change are significant • Technologies exist today to help mitigate and adapt • Not all regions will be impacted equally by climate change. Some will benefit while others will be harmed • Trade will be critical in smoothing out these asymmetric effects • Disruptions to agricultural markets can threaten trade and access of food, increasing food insecurity globally
- 23. Agriculture and Climate Change: Potential Challenges Thank you Daniel Mason-D’Croz d.mason-dcroz@cigar.org
Notas del editor
- Middle of the road scenario SSP2 projects population reaching about 9.2 billion by 2050 before leveling off in the second half of the century. Global GDP is projected to grow even faster than population with average global per capita gdp of around $25000 in 2050, more than doubling the level in 2010, averages can of course hide large income differences between countries and within countries. SSP3 a more negative scenario would see population almost reach 10 billion by 2050 without any leveling off in the second half of the century, and approach 13 billion by 2100 (Robinson et al 2015). UN Medium variant falls between SSP2 and SSP3 with a Population of 9.6 billion in 2050 and 11.2 billion in 2100. Growing per capita GDP around the world will increase the demand for high value items, many of which are more land or input intensive.
- Diets are changing, per capita food demand for cereals is unlikely to increase in most regions and on average globally. There are increasing demand for animal products in the developing world particularly in Africa and Asia. This could offer new export markets not only for animal products but also for cereals and oilmeals to serve as inputs into the livestock sector.
- Temperatures have already increased by more than 0.5°C since the 1970s (IPCC 2007), and current emissions trends and best climate modeling available suggest that temperatures could increase by 2°C by 2050 and almost 4°C by 2100 (IPCC 2013) Glacier melt in Greenland and Antarctica could raises sea-levels by more than ½ meter by 2100, and between 25 and 30 cm by 2050 (IPCC 2013) Loss of glaciers and snowpack will wreak havoc on water management around the world
- Other estimates put Agriculture’s contributions between 10-20% of total emissions. The vast majority comes from 3 sources livestock, rice production, and LUC Changing diets for Animals can decrease carbon intensity of livestock production (Herrero et al 2013) New technologies and management practices like alternate wet and dry for rice can decrease methane emissions from crop cultivation Reforestation is a potential policy to mitigate climate change, and maintain biodiversity. May conflict with needs to meet future food demand. Requires greater emphasis on intensification and agricultural efficiency Increased demand in perishables (F&V and animal products) increase dietary diversity, which is good, but may increase carbon intensity in value chains in the global food system (i.e. refrigerated trucks). The entire food system will likely become more energy intensive.
- Temperatures increases are likely going to be gradual, but accelerating over the century. Maize in Africa for example appears to being suffering heat stress at temperatures above 30°C (Lobell et al 2011). Some maize producing regions may expect in the future to see many more days above 30°C. Canadian prairie growing seasons have already lengthened by about 2 weeks on average, with area dedicated to maize more than 8x higher than 2 decades ago. Still a drop in the bucket compared to U.S. (<1%) (Bjerga 2014)
- Pest movement has already been observed as the climate has warmed. Pests and diseases are moving towards the poles. Bebber et al (2013). Will require the implementation of new pest management practices to handle new pests in previously unaffected areas. Heat stress and changing weather patterns can weaken crops making them even more susceptible to pests and diseases. In some cases, the changes in the environment may make the future environment less hospitable to current pests. More research however is needed, and will likely require additional investments in yield maintenance.
- Climate change will have asymmetric effects. Some regions may benefit from longer growing seasons and increased precipitation, whereas others will have a much harder time.
- Snowpack and glaciers are natural water storage. If these go away it will become more costly to store and manage water resources.
- Improving irrigation efficiency has significant benefits. It saves water which can be used not only by the agriculture sector but for other uses. Water saved through greater efficiency may allow for more expansion of irrigated agriculture, which would increase agricultural yields, and help manage increasing variation in rainfall (Ignaciuk and Mason-D’Croz, 2014)
- Low water levels have already decreased cargo movement across the great lakes and the St. Lawrence in the recent past.
- References: Bebber, D. P., Ramotowski, M. A., & Gurr, S. J. (2013). Crop pests and pathogens move polewards in a warming world. Nature climate change, 3(11), 985-988. Bender, M.A., T.R. Knutson, R.E. Tuleya, J.J. Sirutis, G.A. Vecchi, S.T. Garner, and I.M. Held. (2010) Modeled Impacts of Anthropogenic Warming on the Frequency of Intense Atlantic Hurricanes. Science 22 January 2010: Vol. 327 no. 5964 pp. 454-458. DOI: 10.1126/science.1180568 Bjerga, A. “Canada’s Climate Warms to Corn as Grain Belt Shifts North”. BloombergBusiness. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-04-15/canada-s-climate-warms-to-corn-as-grain-belt-shifts-north Herrero, Mario, et al. "Biomass use, production, feed efficiencies, and greenhouse gas emissions from global livestock systems." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 110.52 (2013): 20888-20893. IPCC. 2007. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. IPCC. 2013. “Summary for Policymakers.” In Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by T. F. Stocker, D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S. K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex, and P. M. Midgley. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. IWMI 2006. Insights from the Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture. Available at: http://www.iwmi.cgiar.org/assessment/files_new/publications/Discussion%20Paper/InsightsBook_Stockholm2006.pdf Lobell, D., M. Bänziger, C. Magorokosho, and B. Vivek. 2011. “Nonlinear Heat Effects on African Maize as Evidenced by Historical Yield Trials,” Nature Climate Change 1 (April): 42–45 Mote, P.W., and D. Sharp. 2015 update to data originally published in: Mote, P.W., A.F. Hamlet, M.P. Clark, and D.P. Lettenmaier. 2005. Declining mountain snowpack in Western North America. B. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 86(1):39–49. Downloaded at: http://www3.epa.gov/climatechange/science/indicators/snow-ice/snowpack.html Robinson, S., D. Mason-D'Croz, S. Islam, T.B. Sulser, R. Robertson, T. Zhu, A. Gueneau, G. Pitois, and M. Rosegrant. (2015) "The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT); Model description for version 3". IFPRI Discussion Paper. International Food Policy Research Institute: Washington, DC. Rosegrant, M. W., J. Koo, N. Cenacchi, C. Ringler, R. Robertson, M. Fisher, C. Cox, K. Garrett, N. D. Perez, and P. Sabbagh. 2014. Food Security in a World of Natural Resource Scarcity: The Role of Agricultural Technologies. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute.