1) Satellite data shows that around 10% of Ethiopia's land area burns annually, with the highest fire activity occurring between December and May. 2) The four ecoregions that experience the most fires - accounting for 93% of burned areas from 2001-2018 - are East Sudanian savannas, Somali Acacia-Commiphora bushland and thickets, Mountain grasslands and woodlands, and Mountain forests. 3) Precipitation and drought appear to be key drivers of fire activity in Ethiopia, and understanding these climate linkages could help with early warning and prevention efforts, particularly as climate change may alter future fire risks.

1. Rosa Maria Roman-Cuesta (R.Roman-Cuesta@cgiar.org)
Rosa Maria Roman-Cuesta, Habte Kassa, Gil Lizano, Christopher Martius
Addis Ababa, 28th August 2019
FIRE IN THE TROPICS: Understanding, foreseeing
and acting on future fire risk in tropical
landscapes
FIRE IN THE TROPICS: Understanding, foreseeing
and acting on future fire risk in tropical
landscapes

2. Andela et al. (2017) Science
FIRE IN THE TROPICS: Understanding, foreseeing and acting on future fire risk in
tropical landscapes
(1998‐2015)
(1998‐2015)
Ethiopia
Indonesia
Colombia

3. Goals of the USAID project
• To identify hotspots of fire risk in the tropics to support fire risk
reduction action
• To assess the effectiveness of fire management interventions in
Indonesia (25th July)
• To characterize fire trends in Ethiopia and its permanence risk over
REDD+ and landscape restoration in Ethiopia (28th August)
• To track fire dynamics in the post‐FARC conflict in Colombia (done)

4. This workshop is a Scoping Exercise that aims at:
1. Identifying experiences on fire management in Ethiopia
2. Identifying fire threats and fire management needs for different ecosystem
types in Ethiopia ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐mainstreaming fire into REDD+ and Restoration
initiatives
3. Receiving feedback from the participants’ experience on research needs and
priority actions for fire management in Ethiopia

5. Workshop organization
1. MORNING: Presentations
Please use the CARDS to write questions and comments
2. AFTERNOON: Participatory part to identify research needs and
priority action for fire management in Ethiopia, also in the
context of REDD+ and Restoration initiatives)
We will create 4 groups that will discuss 4 questions in 20
min windows.

6. THANK YOU ALL FOR BEING HERE!
እዚህ ለመሆን ሁላችሁም አመሰግናችኋለሁ

7. Fire trends in Ethiopia in the last 17 years (2000‐2018) and fire‐climate
reactivity
Rosa Maria Roman‐Cuesta, Gil Lizano, Habte Kassa
Addis Ababa, 28th August 2019
r.roman‐cuesta@cgiar.org

8. Moritz et al. (2005) PNAS
2018, Kenya

9. Climate Action, March 2019

10. Indonesia 2019

11. Brazil 2019

12. Alaska and Canada 2019

13. Fire disturbances: the importance of scale
Are these fires ‘normal’? Fire regimes vs Fire trends
30 rule
Sources:
human, lightning
Fire regimes
 Frequency
 Intensity
 Severity
 Size
 Season
 Pattern
Fire risk (ignition) Fire danger (spread)
Ecosystem type dependent
Fire management interventions

14. V
V
Fires in Ethiopia (2001‐2018)‐ Landsat

15. Ethiopia country area is 110 Mha
10% of the country burns annually
Fires in Ethiopia
Year Burned area (ha)
2001 11,386,627
2002 11,986,433
2003 8,540,651
2004 8,549,529
2005 8,930,175
2006 8,083,993
2007 7,954,193
2008 7,692,756
2009 8,200,491
2010 7,130,370
2011 6,426,712
2012 6,118,079
2013 6,680,726
2014 7,997,244
2015 7,468,021
2016 7,334,511
2017 7,972,339
2018 6,989,404
Figure 1. Landsat time‐series (2001‐2018) of Ethiopia’s
burned areas, derived by analysing LANDSAT imagery in
Google Earth Engine https://earthengine.google.com/ .
V
There is far MORE fire than reported
1984 High Forests 209,913 ha
2000 150,000 ha
Source: Vegetation Types and Forest Fire Management in
Ethiopia. Paper Presented at the “Round Table Conference
on Forest Fire in Ethiopia” 19‐20 September 2000
Demel Teketay, PhD
Fires in Ethiopia (2001‐2018)‐ Landsat

16. Fire seasonality
(Nov) DEC‐JAN‐APR‐MAY (Jun)

17. Olson et al. 2000
Ecoregions12
In Ethiopia
9 Vegetation types in the
10 Conservation Strategy of Ethiopia

18. 30% of burned area
30% of burned area
18% of burned area
15% of burned area
4 ecoregions lead
93% of the fires
(2001‐2018)

19. Crossboundary fires!!
reduction
increase

20. MODIS underestimates small fire burns
Total area burned with Landsat is between x3 and x5 (e.g. 2017)
Ground validation needed!
National Fire Statistics needed!

21. Fire correlation with Precipitation, Max. Temperature, Drought (PDSI)
Precipitation and Drought seem to drive burned areas
Early warning and prevention

22. Fire correlation
with Precip.,
Max. Temp.,
Drought (PDSI)
(2001‐2018)
Mountain grasslands
And Woodlands
Mountain Forests
Early warning and prevention

23. Fire correlation
with Precip.,
Max. Temp.,
Drought (PDSI)
(2001‐2018)
East Sudanian savannas
Somali Acacia‐
Commiphora
Bushland and
thickets

24. • Strong correlation with Pacific warming trends
• Inverse responses between highlands and lowlands

26. Next steps
•Identifying fire drivers: climate vs human
•Investigating fire management options and mainstreaming into
REDD+ and FLR programs
•Extrapolating current fire risks to future climate conditions

27. Thank you