This document summarizes research on REDD+ policy performance in reducing emissions from deforestation. It finds that while some countries have established comprehensive REDD+ policies, business as usual actors remain powerful drivers of deforestation. REDD+ has induced some changes at the political and administrative levels, but underlying political economic conditions have not changed significantly. For REDD+ to be truly effective, forests must be prioritized on international and national agendas. States need autonomy from interests promoting deforestation. Overcoming barriers requires legitimacy, ownership, leadership, and empowering civil society to hold states and businesses accountable.

1. Policy performance for
reducing emissions from avoided
deforestation and forest degradation
under a new climate agreement
Maria Brockhaus Marrakech, November 2016

2. “Climate change cannot be won without the
world’s forests. This, however, will be a
complex and challenging feat.”
Ban Ki Moon, UN Secretary-General, September 2008
Forests and Climate Change

3. REDD+ policy performance to
deliver effectively, efficiently
and equitable for the 1.5 goal?

4. Transformational Change
Shifts in discursive practices, economic incentives,
and power relations that lead away from
business as usual policy approaches that directly
or indirectly support deforestation and forest
degradation (Brockhaus and Angelsen, 2012; Di Gregorio et al, 2012)
Examples:
i) changes in economic, regulatory and governance
frameworks
ii) removals of perverse incentives
iii) reforms of forest industry policies and regulations

5. 2007 - COP13:
RED(D) included in
Bali Action Plan;
Readiness
investments
……….
……….
2013: COP 19
Warsaw
framework,
results based
finance
……….
REDD+

6. - based on Hansen data
- preliminary analysis provided by Nikki de Sy in September 2016

7. Progress with REDD+ policy making
using QCA analysis
in 15 countries since 2011

8. Country
REDD
(Establishment of comprehensive policies
targeting transformational change in the REDD+
policy domain: 0=absent, 1=present)
Trend Forest loss in %
(based on: Annual Forest cover loss
2001 - 2007 (ref period) relative to
2008 - 2014 (1000 ha/y)
Forest loss
trajectory since
2007 (Bali road
map) - 2014
Forest loss
trajectory since
2013 (Warsaw
framework) - 2014
2012 2014 2016
Brazil 1 1 1 -28.5 decrease increase
Burkina Faso
0 0 0 -62.1 light decrease (no data 2014)
Cameroon
0 0 0 94.2 strong increase strong increase
DRC 0 1 1 61.9 strong increase increase
Ethiopia - 0 0 79.0 increase decrease
Guyana - 1 1 49.5 increase increase
Indonesia
1 1 1 48.8 light increase increase
Mozambique
0 0 0 57.8 light increase stable
Nepal 0 0 0 15.1 decrease decrease
Peru 0 0 1 74.8 increase decrease
PNG 0 0 0 40.1 strong increase strong increase
Tanzania
0 1 1 75.2 strong increase decrease
Vietnam 1 1 0 116.4 strong increase increase

9. Changes in policy making – from
rhetoric to action?
 Agents of change and new coalitions emerging, new
incentives, and new discourses highlighting equity
implications of REDD+ as well as effectiveness and efficiency
but
 BAU actor coalitions are powerful, main drivers of
deforestation not yet tackled
 Rhetoric and power struggles everywhere
 Institutional stickiness, interests, ideas, and
information issues rather hinder than emable move
from BAU to TC

10. A chicken and egg problem
REDD+ needs change to work , but REDD+ also
supposed to induce change:
 REDD+ induces change (somewhat)at the political-
administrative level: institutionally, technically, collaborative
capacities increasing;
BUT
 REDD has not (yet) received the changes it would need to be
fully effective efficient and equitable, as the political
economic conditions remain largely the same (see case of
Indonesia)

11. Ways forward to enhance policy
performance
- Forests need to be high on international AND
national agendas
- States need to gain autonomy from the
entrenched interests driving deforestation, enforce
decisions to regulate large-scale international and
domestic investor behavior (Brazil example)
 Overcoming political economy barriers to change
requires: legitimacy, ownership and leadership
 Only an empowered civil society can hold state
and business accountable to their commitments and
promises.

12. We acknowledge the support from:
the Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation (Norad), the Australian
Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT), the European Union (EU), the
UK Government, USAID, the International Climate Initiative (IKI) of the German
Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and
Nuclear Safety (BMUB) and the CGIAR Research Program on Forests, Trees and
Agroforestry (CRP-FTA) with financial support from the CGIAR Fund.
& all research partners and individuals
that have contributed to the GCS research
Thanks