This document discusses major shifts taking place in the global business environment over the next decade, including:
1) A shift from the American century to the Asian century as global economic power transitions to Asia.
2) A shift from an age of prosperity to an age of extremity as societies face greater economic, social, political and environmental instability.
3) A shift from corporate-centric governance to citizen-centric governance as technologies empower individuals and social networks enable participatory democracy.
These shifts require new approaches to management, business models, and entrepreneurship focused on sustainability, stakeholder value, and adapting to increasing complexity, uncertainty and change.
2. Civilization in the Making
Between
1000-1700
18th
Century
21st
Century
Society
Centricity
Community
Pace of Change
Static
Local
Rural
Months
Growth
International
Urban
Days
Dynamic
Transnational
Virtual
Seconds
3. Country A B C
Public
People
Private
Solid Modernity Liquid Modernity
• Connectivity
• Interactivity
• Mobility
• Virtuality
Changing the State of Nature
4. The New Business Environment
Local
Regional
Global Regional GlobalLocal
Interconnected DomainSeparated Domain
Economy
Society
Environment
Society EnvironmentEconomy
10. New Reality
New Vision
New Action
New Mindset
New Skills-set
The Changing Management Landscape
New
Entrepreneurship
11. Three Major Gaps
Capability Gap
CURRENT FUTURE
What is our organization
environment?
Given environmental trends, what
will be the likely organizational
vision?
What are our core
values/competencies?
Given our future scope of
business, what capabilities/values
will be necessary?
Given our organizational vision,
what will be the likely our scope
of business?
What are our scope
of business?
Strategic Gap
TransformationGap
Assumptions
About
Environment
Assumptions
Regarding
Environment
About
Mission
Assumptions
Regarding
Mission
Assumptions
Regarding Core
Competencies
12. • From the American Century to the Asian Century
• From the Age of Prosperity to the Age of Extremity
• From the Corporate Centricity to the Citizen Centricity
3 Major Shifts in the Decade Ahead
13. From the American Century to the Asian Century
European
Century
American
Century
Asian
Century
Global GDP %
1820 70 1913 50 73 2005
Developing Countries
Developed Countries
25
50
75
The Rise of the RestThe Triad
The Rest of the World The Rise of Asia
World Economic Structure
Source: The Economist
15. From the Age of Prosperity to the Age of Extremity
The Age of Extremity
The Age of Prosperity Inequality
Imbalance
16. The Age of Extremity
e.g., floods, droughts and other effects
from global warming that occur more
often with more severe damage.
e.g., economic and financial crises in the
EU that may lead to the end of the
Eurozone and the “Occupy Wall Street”
phenomena in the United States.
e.g., the Arab Spring, the Wiki-Leak
saga
e.g., income disparity and inequality that
occurs around the world, even in the
United States
Nature’s Extreme
Economic Extreme
Social Extreme
Political Extreme
17. GlobalLocal
GlobalLocal
• Terrorism
• Mass Production
of Refugees
• Extreme Poverty
• Genocide
• Civil War
• Financial Turmoil
• Economic Crises
• Pandemics
• Climate Change
The Globalization of Risk &Threats
18. From the Corporate Centricity to the Citizen Centricity
Country
Centric
Governance
Corporate
Centric
Governance
Citizen
Centric
Governance
• Territorial • Materialistic • Individualistic
• Nation-
State
• Multinational
Corporation
• Wisdom of the
Crown
19. The Arab Spring
Common
Differences
Inequality of Power
Inequality of Wealth
Inequality of Opportunity
Rich Ruler
Poor Ruled
Democracy Democracy
Plutocracy
Autocracy/
Absolute
Monarchy
Personal Technology X
Social Network as a Enabler
- Hello Effect
- Snowball Effect
- Domino Effect
Occupy Wall Street
A Long Journey to Citizen Centric Governance
21. Democratization
Democratization of
Ownership
Democratization of
Innovation
From Private Investors
to Citizen Investors
From Intellectual Property
to Wisdom of the Crowd
Democratization of
Consumer
From Product Centricity
to People Centricity
Democratization of
Consumption
From the Top of the Pyramid
to the Bottom of the Pyramid
Democratization of
Politics
From Representative to
Participative Democracy
22. • Technology enables
everyone to be an expert
• Individuals are becoming
authors of their own lives
and identities
• Individual Autonomy
• Intellectual Independence
• De-traditionalization
• Free Culture
Individualization
A Self-Defined Culture
24. Fundamental Shifts at the Corporate Level
• From shareholders to stakeholders
• From producers to consumers
• From unskilled to skilled labor
• From company-based to cluster-based competition
25. The Changing Management Landscape
• From the American Century to the Asian Century
• From the Age of Prosperity to the Age of Extremity
• From the Corporate Centricity to the Citizen Centricity
Forces & Trends
Global
Level
• From shareholders to stakeholders
• From producers to consumers
• From unskilled to skilled labor
• From company-based to cluster-based competition
Corporate
Level
26. Thriving in the New Age of Global Capitalism,
we need to…
• Reorient the New Management Mindset and Business Paradigm
• Redefine the Business Objective Function
• Create a New Business Model
• Craft a New Business Conduct
• Re-scope the Business Value Creation
• Set up a New Form of Organization
• Develop a New Leadership Skill-Set
27. Neo-classical Paradigm
The Earth as a subsystem of the
Human Economy *
Ecological Paradigm
Human Economy as a subsystem of
the Earth’s Ecosystem *
* Meme Wars : The Creative Destruction of Neoclassical Economics
The Paradigm Shift
Business
Economy
Society
Planet Business
Economy
Society
Planet
29. Dependence
Care Share
Make Sell
Sense Respond
Independence
Interdependence
Competing with Others
LivingwithOthers
Controlling the Nature
LivingwithNature
New Business Mental Model
30. • Mass Production
•Corporate Governance
•Asymmetry of Information
•Economies of Scarcity
•Owning the Asset
•Consumer/Producer
•Market Segmentation
•Goods for Elite
• Mass Customization
•Market Governance
•Democratization of Information
•Network Externality
•Gaining the Access
•B2C Prosumer/ Co-Creator
•Value Chain Integration
•Goods for Everyone
•Creative Collaboration
•People Governance
•Democratization of Creativity
•Economies of Reciprocity
•Empowering the People
•P2P Prosumer
•Open Innovation/ Creativity
•Goods For/By Everyone
Source: Suvit Maesincee “Post Knowledge Based Society”
Make & Sell Sense & Respond Care & Share
Changes in Marketing Practices
31. Changes in Marketing Orientation
Serving
Customer Better
Creating
a Better World
4Cs
• Company
• Customers
• Competitors
• Community
4Ws
• Economic Wealth
• Environmental Wellness
• Social Well-beings
• Human Wisdom
• Product
• Price
• Place
• Promotion
4Ps
Stake-
holder
Centric
Developing
Better Products
Global
Centric
Product
Centric
33. Create a New Business Model
Bounded
Prosperity
Sustainability
SecurityStability
Corporate
Value Creation
Responsibility
RisksReturn
Global Eco-system Corporate Eco-system
36. The Pre-Crisis Business Value Creation
• Short-termism
• Taking risks
• Financial leverage (Financial Engineering)
• Wealth diversion from shareholder to top management
• Earning manipulation
Erosion of
Morality
37. Dependence Interdependence
Independence
Economic Value Creation
Social Value Creation
• Market Wisdom
• Performance
• Efficiency
• Knowledge
• Moral Wisdom
• Conformance
• Equality
• Morality
Re-Scoping the Business Value Creation
38. Setting-up a New Form of Organization
Social
Enterprises
Third
Sectors
Public Private
Partnership
People Sector Private Sector
Public Sector
39. Dependence
Independenc
e
Soft Power
Hard Power
The New Entrepreneurial Skills
• Assertive
• Competitive
• Authoritative
• Collaborative
• Participative
• Integrative
Interdependence
Getting others to
do what you want
them to do
42. Run a business Drive the industry
Global VentureBusiness Venture
Ten Commandments of
Value Based Entrepreneurships
Propensity to Imitate
Risk X Return
Propensity to Innovate
Risk X Return X Responsibility
Many 2 Many (Many 2 Many) (Mind 2 Mind)
Seek for Survival Seek for Sustainability
Ordinary Entrepreneurs Value Based Entrepreneurs
Sustainable ProfitabilityShort-term Profitability
Closed Proprietary Platform Open Collaborative Platform
Creator Curator
Hard Power Soft Power
43. Every morning in Africa, a gazelle wakes up.
It knows it must run faster than the fastest lion or it
will be killed.
Every morning a lion wakes up.
It knows it must outrun the slowest gazelle or it will
starve to death.
It does not matter whether you are a lion or a
gazelle.
When the sun comes up, you better start running.
African Proverb
44. “If You want to go quickly,
go alone;
if you want to go far,
go together.”
African Proverb
45. “It is not the strongest of
the species that survive,
nor the most intelligent,
but the one most responsive
to change.”
Charles Darwin