2 Making The Invisible Visible - Abigail Thorne-Lyman
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2 Making The Invisible Visible - Abigail Thorne-Lyman
- 1. Making the Invisible Visible: Understanding the Demographic and Economic Forces that Shape Land Use and Development Abby Thorne-Lyman Congress for the New Urbanism June 11, 2009
- 2. Presentation Overview Why are demographic and economic forces important? How to evaluate a local economy Bringing transportation into the story Lessons learned for comprehensive planning
- 3. Why Are Demographic and Economic Forces Important
- 4. The Economy (Jobs & Wealth) Workers (and their families) Population and Job Growth Buildings, Infrastructure, Purview of the Comp Plan Public Services
- 6. U.S. Household Structure is Changing In 2000, only 1/3 of total households had kids under 18 About 24 percent were traditional nuclear families
- 7. A “Minority Majority” Future By 2023, majority of children will be non-White By 2042, majority of whole population will be non- White
- 8. Households are Aging By 2050: 19 million people over the age of 85, more than three times the number we have today
- 9. Growing Demand for TOD National Demand for TOD by Income, 2030 $75,000 and Gre r ate Only 1/3 of demand is at the 21 % L s Than es $20,000 m edian incom or above e 29% $50,000 - $74,999 1 3% $20,000 - $35,000 - $34,999 $49,999 1 9% 1 4%
- 10. Understanding and Supporting the Local Economy
- 11. Local Economic Activity Provides: Quality of Life for Community Residents (jobs/income, services, enrichment) Tax Base for the Community (property taxes, sales tax, etc.) Metropolitan Competitiveness and Prosperity (providing jobs, workers, or both to regional economic “niches”)
- 12. Standard Land Use Map Employment Areas are usually the least “understood” areas in a comp. plan But, there is often considerable pressure to convert employment lands to other uses.
- 13. Employment areas should be defined by “function” and evaluated independently Location, Location, Location!
- 14. Understand Your Industries Driving Industries – Sell goods and services beyond city Household Serving Industries – Provides goods and services for residents (and other people in the city) Business Serving Industries – Provides services to other businesses in the city
- 16. Bringing Transportation into the Story Source: San Mateo County
- 18. When gas prices increase… Transportation Costs as % Median HH Income (Center for Neighborhood Technology: http://htaindex.cnt.org) $1.81 /gallon $4.47/gallon
- 19. Quality Transit has Origins and Destinations Map Current Worker Flow to Boyle Heights, Downtown Current Worker Flow from BH
- 20. Plan Strategically for TOD
- 21. Four Lessons for Comprehensive Planning
- 22. 1. Different opportunities for change influence the plan approach Built Out Community Developing Community Understand Your Opportunities for Change
- 23. 2. Local Economies Are Not Just Local Workers in and out Job Center Bedroom Community Always Consider the Regional Context
- 24. 3. Good Land Use Policy can support Economic Development Use Real Estate Market Data and Projections to Test Land Use Assumptions
- 25. 4. Plan for Diversity This applies to every aspect of your community