Bajaj Allianz Life Insurance Company - Insurer Innovation Award 2024
Ganges Global Drivers by Zahirul Khan
1. Ganges Basin Development Challenge
Objective: Improve resource productivity and increase the resilience
of agriculture and aquaculture systems of brackish coastal areas of
the Ganges
3. Study Area:
Ganges Dependent Area
in Bangladesh
Project Target Area:
Coastal Zone of the Ganges basin in
Bangladesh except the Sundarbans
Coastal Divisions:
Barisal: Patuakhali, Barguna, Jhalakati &
Pirojpur districts
Khulna:
Khulna & Satkhira districts
4. Problems and Challenges in the Coastal Region of Bangladesh
Salinity intrusion
Sea level rise
Increase in precipitation in monsoon
Salinity intrusion
Salinity Intrusion Decrease in precipitation in dry season
Water RelatedDevelopments: frequency of tropical cyclone
Important Issues:
Increased
•Water, land and ecosystem management
•Coastal Zone Policy Added siltation on the
•Community participation in water management
•Coastal Development Strategy drainage route
•Equitable allocation of multi-purpose cyclone
•Priority investment program
Flood •Community capacity to enhance livelihoods
shelters
Cyclone
•Enabling institutional environment
•Rationalization of coastal polders
•Integrated knowledge base
• Restoration of inflow to the Ganges distributary by
basin wide management
•Salinity intrusion Water logging
•Drainage congestions & Sedimentation
•Climate change and climate variability
5. Drivers of Change: Participatory Approach
DRIVERS PRESSURE/CONSEQUENCES
Demographic/Societal Water demand & use
Population growth, Land use change Loss of biodiversity and
wetlands
Economic/Trade Shift in land use
Economic develpopment (change in per Water Demand, water
capiata income) Pollution
Market value of agricultural products Roads, railway & ports
Political/Institutional/Legal Improved Irrigation and
Water policy (national and regional) drainage system, Water
availability in the dry season
Environmental/Climate Change Fresh water shortage,
Sea level rise due to Climate Change Salinity intrusion, Flood
Changes in precipitation and temperature due Sedimentation
to Climate Change , Subsidence More Cyclone & Storm
surge
Technological/Important Innovations Enhanced knowledge and
aquaculture and agriculture intensification, use of HYV
Water infrastructure development Enabling environment
6. Community Consultation at Polder 30
Place: Kismat-fultola, Batiaghata
Participant: Fishermen (6 women, 9 men)
Priority Issue
1 Stop leasing the canals
2 Stop placing ‘net’, ‘pata’, ‘charu’ or obstruction in the canals/river
3 Increase depth and flow in canals
4 Place: Fultola, Batiaghata
Stop catching mother fish carrying eggs
5 Participant: Farmers (3 women, 20 men)
Reduce using pesticides for agriculture
Priority Issue 6 Stop unnecessary catching of juvenile fish of other species
1 Increase of water level & salinity intrusion, Polder needs to be raised, some of the
7 Stop complete drying of canals while irrigation so that some fish/e
existing gates need to be repaired and new gates are required to be constructed
survive/remain in the canals for future growth
2 Need improvement in drainage and excavation of new drains/canals, new sluice
gates/inlet-outlet
3 WGMs want to be able to operate the gates themselves and to lease the ‘Khas
lands’ near the embankment and gates to generate funds for their activities.
4 Stop leasing of the canals
5 Solve the problem of river siltation and improve navigation
6 Water management through public representation and partnership
7 Capacity building and training
7. Percentage
Population Growth
6.5%
Changes in Water Mgt
Sea level rise
6.1% 5.9%
Land use change
Water Sharing
5.7% 5.7%
Transboundary flow
Aquaculture intensification
Economic Develpopment
Urbanization
Water infrastructure…
5.5% 5.4% 5.4% 5.4% 5.4%
Changes in precipitation
5.2%
Water Policy
4.8%
Industrialization
Water Governance &…
4.6% 4.6%
Water Use change
Preliminary Results of Questionnaire Survey
Market Value of Agro Products
4.4% 4.3%
Changes in temperature
4.2%
Dietary patterns
3.2%
Water Pricing & Insurance
2.8%
8. Hydrologic Trend Analysis in the Study Area:
Trend Analysis of Ganges River Discharge
Hardinge Bridge on the Ganges • Increasing trend of
90000 annual maximum flow
80000
• Decreasing trend of
70000 annual minimum flow
60000
Discharge (m3/s)
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Max Q Min Q Average Q
Linear (Max Q) Linear (Min Q) Linear (Average Q)
9. Hydrologic Variables:Trend Analysis in the
Study Area:
Trend Analysis of Water Level
Hiron Pointon the Pussur River
Hiron Pointon the Pussur River • Rising trend of water
4 level near the sea
4
3
3 The increase of maximum
2
water level is 6 cm/yr at
Water Level (mPWD)
Hiron Point in the last 10
12
years.
0
1
-1
-2 0
1999
1980 2001
1985 2003
1990 2005
1995 20002007 2005 2009 2010
Max of WL Max of WL of WL
Min Linear (Max of WL)of WL
Average
Linear (Max of WL) Linear (Min of WL) Linear (Average of WL)
11. Population growth
140
120
• One of the densely 100
populated country 80
60
• Projected population 40
20
0
o 2025: 180million
o 2050: 220 million Rural Urban
Cropped area
• Urban: 25 million (2001), 80 Population growth
million (2025) & 140 million
(2050)
• Reduction of agricultural
land 1% annually
12. Coastal Polders in Bangladesh
In the early sixties and seventies, 125 polders (of which 49
are sea-facing) were constructed to protect low lying coastal
areas from tidal flood & salinity intrusion.
13. G1 IRRI – IWM – LGED - SRDI Trial sites
S elected Polder in coastal zone of Bangladesh and West Bengal
Polder 30 trials and
study watershed
Polder 3
trials
Polder 43/2/F
trials
West Bengal Bangladesh
14. Impact of SLR on Intrusion of 5ppt Salinity line
Dry Season
Khulna
Barisal
95 km
Patuakhali
Barguna Bhola
55 km
Sundarbans
0 SLR
Hiron Point
Sea Level Rise Affected area (ha) Affected Population SLR
60 cm
(SLR) due to SLR due to SLR120 cm SLR
60cm 512,590 4,613,306
120cm 1,061,016 9,549,144