By Andre van Rooyen. As part of a CPWF September 2011 workshop in Thailand regarding global drivers. We have divided driver types into five categories: 1. Demographic/Social, 2. Economic, 3. Political/Institutional/Legal, 4. Environmental/Climate change, 5. Technological/ Innovations

1. Resilience thinking: Towards new
conceptual models in
Agricultural/Rural/Basin
development….
and modeling
Andre F van Rooyen

2. Complex systems Ostrom 2007
Three aspects of decomposability of complex
subsystems are important:
1. conceptual partitioning of variables into classes
and subclasses.
2. is the existence of relatively separable
subsystems that are independent of each other
in the accomplishment of many functions and
development but eventually affect each other’s
performance.
3. that complex systems are greater than the sum
of their parts.

3. What is resilience and why should we be
concerned?
The ability of a “system” (social-ecological or SES) to
recover from shock/perturbation;
3 defining characteristics:
1. The amount change a system can undergo and still
retain the same controls on function and structure;
2. The degree to which a system is capable of self-
organization and re-organization after shock/change
3. The degree to which the system can learn/share
knowledge and adapt.
Walker et al. 2002

5. Back to Plant Ecology 101
• Sustainability
• Succession models – Linear models
• Equilibrium systems
• Disequilibrium
• Hollings and Walker

6. Cup and ball models…

7. Cup and ball models…

8. Cup and ball models…

9. Cup and ball models…

10. State-and-transition-models
Closed unpalatable woodland
Small shrubs
Bare soil
Mixed annual grass/shrubland
Annual grasses
Savanna

11. Transitions can be caused by:
• Grazing
– Inefficient grazing systems – lack of infrastructure
– Inappropriate water provision
– Policy – open access systems
• Fire
• Frost
Obviously the opposite of these will normally have positive
impact!

12. Stable degraded states
• Some transitions are irreversible!
• Caused by changes in soil, chemistry, structure
• Plant spp composition changes and seed
banks
• Long lived unpalatable spp.
Stable degraded states are often very resilient
I.e. its very difficult to get out of these states.

13. Now, apply the same thinking to the whole system
socio-ecological systems (SES)
• How do the GD interact within the SES in your basin?
• What are the specific barriers preventing regime changes?
• What are the facilitating environments/conditions which
could drive DES in you area forward?
Think in terms of:
• Technologies
• Policies
• Markets
• Incentives
• Environmental conditions/constraints/opportunities

14. Fig. 6. The current and possible future states in the western Australian wheatbelt and some of the key
thresholds.
Copyright © 2006 by the author(s). Published here under license by the Resilience Alliance.
soil salinity began to appear. By 2000, 16% of the soil fertility, suchEtienne,acidification, 11(1): 20. [online] URL: Resilience and regime
Kinzig, A. P., P. Ryan, M. as H. Allison, T. Elmqvist, and B. H. Walker. 2006.
shifts: assessing cascading effects. Ecology and Society
sodicity, and
land had become saline and was largely erosion (National Land and Water Resources Audit
http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol11/iss1/art20/

15. Resilience management:
• To prevent the system from moving to
undesired system configuration when shocked
of challenged/disturbed
• To nurture and preserve the elements that
enable the system to renew and reorganize
itself following major chock or change

16. eco
reg
Fig. 1. A framework for the analysis of resilience in con
social-ecological systems. tec
all
Description of System Go
Step 1 Key processes, ecosystem,
structures and actors par
line
reg
Exploring
Step 2 external
Plausible Exploring cha
policies visions
shocks pre
3-5 scenarios · Wh
act
Step 3 Resilience analysis
ser
Better
Integrated var
Stakeholder evaluation
Theories eco
Step 4
(processes and products) the
Policy and
Management "fa
Actions
· Wh
pol

17. Copyright © 2006 by the author(s). Published here under license by the Resilience Alliance.
Kinzig, A. P., P. Ryan, M. Etienne, H. Allison, T. Elmqvist, and B. H. Walker. 2006. Resilience and regime
shifts: assessing cascading effects. Ecology and Society 11(1): 20. [online] URL:
http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol11/iss1/art20/

18. Development trajectories and a conceptual
model of rural/agricultural development

19. • Berkes (2007 p.287) suggested: “the creation
of platforms for dialogue and innovation,
following a crisis, is key to the stimulation of
learning to deal with uncertainties. It helps
reorganize conceptual models and paradigms,
based on a revised understanding of the
conditions generating the crisis.”

20. Folke et al. (2003) defined four clusters of factors, that interact
across temporal and spatial scales which increase the resilience
of SES
• Learning to live with change and uncertainty
• Nurturing diversity in its various forms
• Combining different types of knowledge for learning
• Creating opportunity for self-organization and cross-scale
linkages