Lawmakers on Capitol Hill have been negotiating over a new package of economic and public health support to combat COVID-19. Congress has already enacted $3.7 trillion of spending, tax cuts and deferrals, loans, and other fiscal aid, but some of this support is now expiring, particularly expanded unemployment benefits. On July 31st, Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget senior vice president Marc Goldwein presented a webinar titled "Where Does the Next Phase of COVID Relief Stand?" This slide deck was made to accompany that webinar.

1. CRFB.org

2. CRFB.org
$19.0 trillion
in Q1
$17.2 trillion
in Q2
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
GDP Has Fallen by 9.5 Percent
Shaded bars indicate recessions
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Washington Post
Real GDP (trillions)
2

3. CRFB.org
$0.5T
$0.7T
$0.9T
$1.1T
$1.3T
$1.5T
January February March April May
Illustrative Monthly After-Tax Income (Billions), Assuming Flat Market and Transfer Income in May
Market Income
(minus taxes)
Government Transfers
(excluding UI and rebates)
Economic
Impact Payments
5.4% Increase
from February
Personal Income Has Grown Through May Despite Recession
May is a rough CRFB projection, assuming no net change in market and transfer income
Note: updated 6/22 to correct an error that omitted employer pension and payroll tax contributions from income
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 3

4. CRFB.org
$0.5T
$0.7T
$0.9T
$1.1T
$1.3T
$1.5T
January February March April May June July August
Illustrative Monthly After-Tax Income (Billions), Assuming Flat Market and Transfer Income in May
Market Income
(minus taxes)
Government Transfers
(excluding UI and rebates)
Economic
Impact Payments Unemployment
2% Fall in Income from February,
4% from July
But Income Is Slated to Fall in August
May is a rough CRFB projection, assuming no net change in market and transfer income
Note: updated 6/22 to correct an error that omitted employer pension and payroll tax contributions from income
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 4

5. CRFB.org
And We Still Face a Large Output Gap
Source: CRFB Calculations based on Congressional Budget Office Data
Note: All estimates begin August 1 of 2020
Estimated Output Gap Beginning August 1 (Billions of Nominal Dollars)
-$750
-$1,250
-$2,000
-$3,850
-$5,150
-$6,000
-$5,000
-$4,000
-$3,000
-$2,000
-$1,000
$0
6 Months 1 Year 2 Years 5 Years 10 Years
5

6. CRFB.org
$2.2 trillion $2.2 trillion
> $5.7 trillion*
$3.7 trillion
$470 billion
$2.4 trillion
$63 billion$413 billion
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
Federal Reserve Actions Legislative Actions Administrative Actions
Amount Disbursed/Committed
Amount Not Disbursed/Committed
Deficit Impact
How Big Is The COVID Response?
Trillions
* Some Fed facilities and programs have no announced cap or maximum, in which case, we assume the
max as the largest amount disbursed or committed since the crisis began.
6

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7
6 Months 1 Year 2 Years 5 Years
0.25x multiplier $2,950 billion $5,000 billion $8,000 billion $15,450 billion
0.5x multiplier $1,500 billion $2,500 billion $4,000 billion $7,700 billion
1x multiplier $750 billion $1,250 billion $2,000 billion $3,850 billion
1.5x multiplier $500 billion $850 billion $1,350 billion $2,600 billion
2x multiplier $400 billion $650 billion $1,000 billion $1,950 billion
2.5x multiplier $300 billion $500 billion $800 billion $1,550 billion
"Income Gap" $200 billion $550 billion $1,350 billion $3,450 billion
Source: Congressional Budget Office and CRFB calculations. "Income gap" is a concept we use to describe the
difference between actual personal income and potential personal income. To approximate potential
personal income, we assume income would remain the same share of potential GDP as projected prior to
the current crisis. The gap is small in the near-term due to existing government transfers.
But More Funds Will Be Needed
Cost of Closing the Output Gap, Depending on Average Multiplier

8. CRFB.org
But More Funds Will Be Needed
Funding may be needed for:
▪ Unemployed workers ($600/week bonus expires July 31)
▪ State & local governments (Fiscal Year Started June 1)
▪ Small businesses (PPP loans !all issued)
▪ Households (Economic Impact Payments ~all issued)
▪ Colleges, Hospitals, and Health Providers
▪ Essential Workers
▪ COVID-19 and related public health needs
8

9. CRFB.org
9
Policy Ten-Year Cost/Savings (-)
Provide Aid to State and Local Governments $1.13 trillion
Increase Safety Net Spending $485 billion
Provide Additional Rebates $435 billion
Increase Health Care-Related Spending $382 billion
Support Small Businesses and Employee Retention $290 billion
Reduce Individual Taxes $290 billion
Provide Student Loan Relief and Funding for Higher Education $191 billion
Increase Housing-Related Spending $202 billion
Establish Hazard Pay Fund for Essential Workers $190 billion
Increase Communications-Related Spending $32 billion
Provide Pension and Retirement Relief $48 billion
Increase Agriculture Spending $31 billion
Limit Business Loss Deductibility -$254 billion
Total $3.4 trillion
Source: Congressional Budget Office, Joint Committee on Taxation
The House Introduced the Heroes Act

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Policy Ten-Year Cost/Savings (-)
Reform & Extend Unemployment Benefits $110 billion^
Issue Second Round of Economic Impact Payments $300 billion
Provide Small Business Loans and Support $158 billion
Offer Tax Breaks for Employers to Hire, Retain, and Protect Workers $200 billion^
Increase Health-Related Spending $111 billion
Increase Education Spending $105 billion
Provide Targeted Support for Domestic Industries $63 billion
Other Spending Increases $39 billion
Enact Liability Protection for Schools and Businesses N/A
Enact TRUST Act to establish trust fund rescue committees N/A
Total $1.1 trillion
^Estimates are extremely rough and actual costs could differ substantially.
Source: Bill text, legislative summaries, and CRFB calculations based on CBO & JCT estimates.
The Senate Introduced the HEALS Act

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Lots in Common, but Many Differences
Heroes Act HEALS Act
Unemployment Bonus Extend $600 Bonus
Extend at $200,
Move to 70% of Wages
Economic Impact Payments $1,200 per person
$1,200 per taxpayer,
$500 per dependent
Support for Employers
$290 billion for loans and tax
credits
$360 billion for loans and tax
credits
Aid for states, localities, and
public schools
$1.1 trillion in direct aid,
higher M’caid, and schools
About $100 billion for schools,
plus flexibility
Funding for Hazard Pay $190 billion None
Health-Related Funding $382 billion $111 billion
Liability Reform None Included
Budget Process Reforms None TRUST Act
Select Differences Between Heroes Act and HEALS Act