The document discusses the dual challenge of doubling food production while facing increasing water scarcity and climate change impacts. It notes that food production will need to double by 2050 to feed the growing population, but water needs are also expected to double if practices do not change. Climate change is projected to make some areas wetter and others drier. Solutions discussed include improving water management, upgrading rainfed agriculture, developing a range of agricultural water management options, increasing water storage, and utilizing groundwater resources. However, agricultural water management has not been implemented widely or rapidly enough. Barriers include institutional issues, lack of focus on the poor and women, and insufficient capacity and investment.
The dual challenge: doubling yields in the face of water scarcity and climate change - Dr David Molden, IWMI
1. The dual challenge: doubling
yields in the face of water
scarcity and climate change
Dr David Molden
IWMI
2. Water for a food-secure worldWater for a food-secure world
About IWMI
IWMI is one of 15 research centers supported by the
Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research
(CGIAR).
Mission: To improve the management of land and water
resources for food, livelihoods and the environment.
Where we work:
Headquarters: Colombo, Sri Lanka
In Africa : Ghana, Southern Africa, Ethiopia
In Asia: India, Pakistan, Nepal, Laos, Vietnam,
Central Asia, Syria
3. Water Scarcity 2000
1/3 of the world’s population live in basins that have to deal with water scarcity
4. More People – 6.5 to 9 billion people by
2050
More calories & more meat, fish, milk
More food production – need to double grain
production by 2050
More water for food – if practices don’t change,
double water needs
This equation doesn’t work – something has to
change
Will there be enough water?
More people – 6.5 to 9 billion people by 2050
More calories & more meat, fish, milk
More food production – need to
double grain production by 2050
More water for food – if
practices don’t change,
water needs for agriculture will double
Something has to change
8. Water for a food-secure world
Hydrological Modeling (SWAT)
Rainfall-Runoff simulation to determine impacts of CC on flow regimes and
groundwater recharge
Rainfall Evapotranspiration
Runoff
Results – one
scenario (A1B), one
sub-catchment in
the Volta
10. - Costs 1/3rd of growth potential
- Occurs as prolonged dry spells, drought and floods
Impact of rainfall variability on GDP and
Agricultural GDP growth
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
year
%
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
rainfall variability
GDP growth
Ag GDP growth
Unmitigated rainfall and hydrological variability
Source: World Bank, 2006. A Country Water Resources Assistance Strategy for Ethiopia
11. Growth in Yields
United States
China
Latin America
Sub-Saharan Africa
IPCC – yields in SSA will decline by 50%
because of climate change
It is possible to more than double yields in
SSA in spite of climate change.
13. Around 70% of the
world’s under-nourished
live in rural areas where
non-agricultural
livelihood options are
limited.
Get water to poor people, use it better
Improve and Safeguard
Water Access
Access to Technologies
14. But need to re-think water storage: role of groundwater and
soil moisture.
And beyond: insurance, local trade, …
Cubicmeterspercapita
Water Storage Mitigates Climate Variability
4
43
746
1287
1406
2486
3255
4729
6150
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Kenya
Ethiopia
South
Africa
Thailand
Laos
China
Brazil
Australia
North
America
Source:WorldBankdatafromICOLD
15. Water for a food-secure world
Physical Water Storage Continuum
18. Upgrade Water Management in Rainfed
Landscapes
Even if large scale irrigated area doubles, the
contribution to food production for SSA from irrigation
would change from 5 to 11%.
Rainfed land has the highest potential for poverty
reduction and water productivity gains.
19. Consider A Range of Agricultural Water
Management Options
Fish, Livestock, Crops,
Ecosystem Services
20. A range of options
Water sources in Krishna basin
Krishna river basin
24 major reservoirs
6100 small reservoirs
High groundwater use
21. Water for a food-secure world
Map source: Survey Dept.
For Water Security
Storage is the best
“No regret” option!
22. Water for a food-secure worldWater for a food-secure world
Doubling Yields
water + more
• Access to technology, seeds, fertilizers?
• Is there enough money
or credit to buy them?
• Are markets available to sell?
• Financially viable?
• Water and land resources available?
• Is it sustainable – financial, ecological?
• Supportive policies?
• “Mind mobilization” Matsepo Khumbane
23. FAO - SSA 245 Million 58% are rural
poor
AWM Team - SSA 279 Million 65% are poor
AWM Team -
India
220 Million 90% are poor
Who could benefit from Agricultural
Water Management Solutions?
From Scoping Study for Agricultural
Water Management Solutions Project
27. Multiple-use systems
integrating domestic water, irrigation, fisheries, livestock,
industries – provide income, nutrition and health benefits, and
improve water productivity
health
labour saving,
gender
resilient food and income….
..from livestock
..from fish
..from enterprise
..from crops
28. Groundwater – offers
opportunities for the
rural poor.
Needs:
1) Better information
on availability
1) Access to
technologies
2) promote sustainable
use
IDE rope pump, Ethiopia
29. A groundwater revolution in SSA: Benefits with little cost?
Groundwater is under-
utilized in Sub-
Saharan Africa
Cultivatedareaas%ofcellarea
In Asia groundwater is
often the only water
available
30. Water for a food-secure world
It is happening….
But not fast enough!
31. Why doesn’t it happen faster?
• Missed opportunities:
–AWM falls between institutional cracks
–Failure to focus on women
• Water focus is on drinking water,
hydropower, large irrigation
• Its not just about technologies, but
about markets, institutions, capacity
32. What will it take?
• Continuous learning from a range of
knowledge and experience
• A new and significantly increased capacity
• Crafting solutions, paying attention to
context
• Adapting technologies and institutions
• Engaging public, policy makers & investors
• You…..
33. Water for a food-secure world
Thank You !
“Anyone who can solve the problems of water will
be worthy of two Nobel Prizes – one for peace and
one for science”
John F Kennedy
