06 hasan ikhrata
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Presentation by Hasan Ikhrata of the Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) on transportation policy at the California Asphalt Pavement Association Spring Conference April 25, 2013 in Ontario, CA.
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06 hasan ikhrata
- 1. Planning, Funding & Future Trends A Regional Perspective Hasan Ikhrata Executive Director For California Asphalt Paving Association 1
- 2. What I’ll Cover 1. RTP/SCS Overview 2. Implications and Opportunities for the Asphalt Paving Industry The World is Changing! Can we keep up? 2
- 3. What I’ll Cover 1. RTP/SCS Overview 2. Implications and Opportunities for the Asphalt Paving Industry The World is Changing! Can we keep up? 3
- 6. [21,690] miles of highways and arterials [470] miles of passenger rail [6] air carrier airports [446 million] miles driven each day [81 million] air passengers each year [45%] more urban rail riders between 2000 and 2006 [34%] of our jobs depend on the goods movement industry State and federal gas taxes have not changed in nearly [20] years Yet, highway construction costs have grown by [82%] 6 SCAG Region
- 7. Regional Transportation Plan: 3 Overarching Strategies allocate ONLY13% capital investment to highways focus over 50% growth within 3% land area FROM7:3 single- vs. multi- family units TO3:7 7
- 8. Transportation Investment Trends - 1920 8
- 9. Transportation Investment Trends - 1990 9
- 10. Transportation Investment Trends - 2010 10
- 11. Transportation Investment Trends – 2035 Plan 11
- 12. 12 Regional Transportation Plan: $525 billion (expenditures)
- 14. 14 Regional Transportation Plan: $525 billion (revenues)
- 15. New Revenue Sources and Innovative Financing Strategies 15 • Local Sales Tax Measures & Bonding • Gas Tax Adjustment • Mileage-based User Fee • Highway Tolls • Private Equity Participation • Freight Fee Program • E-commerce Tax • Interest From Toll Bonds • Value-capture Strategies
- 16. New for 2012 RTP: Sustainable Communities Strategy 16 • New state laws to control Greenhouse Gas Emissions (First-in-the-Nation) • S.B. 375 requires RTP to attain GHG emissions targets for cars and light trucks • SCS component of RTP outlines integrated land use and transportation strategies to meet targets • Community livability, sustainability, prosperity “co-benefits” – Not just GHG reduction!
- 17. A Game Changer for Southern California? • Certified by federal agencies for conformity • SCS target affirmed by ARB • Praised in Wall Street Journal, LA Times, Huffington Post, and more 17
- 18. •Cities and counties •County Transportation Commissions •Respective state agencies •Business community •Development Community •Affordable housing advocates •Air quality •Public health advocates Key Support for the RTP/SCS 18
- 19. What I’ll Cover 1. RTP/SCS review 2. Implications and Opportunities for the Asphalt Paving Industry The World is Changing! Can we keep up? 19
- 20. Advancing Jobs in Our Region Construction Network Benefits Commuting Accessibility Transportation 174,500 Annual Jobs 354,000 Annual Jobs 20
- 21. Major Highway Projects in the RTP 21
- 23. Preservation & Operations Funding 23 RTP allocates ONLY13% capital investment to highways Why? • Deteriorating infrastructure – “Fix-it-First” • Most counties focusing on transit investment • Demographics…
- 24. Declining per-capita VMT 24 VMT per capita for USA. Source: FHWA, Census Bureau
- 25. Growing Age Groups Drive Less 5.5 6.4 10.6 11.8 2.0 4.0 0 5 10 15 20 25 Population (millions) Historic and Projected Population By Age Group 0-20 21-64 65+ 20102035 30% 29% 59% 53% 11% 18% Source: US Census Bureau, SCAG 25
- 26. Emerging Opportunities for the Paving Industry 26 System Preservation: Operations and Maintenance RTP allocation of O&M Expenditures
- 27. Emerging Opportunities for the Paving Industry 27 Active Transportation: Bicycle/Pedestrian Facilities $6.7 billion in 2012 RTP/SCS Key venue for new paving technologies
- 28. Emerging Opportunities for the Paving Industry 28 New Technologies: Emphasis on Sustainability Colored, porous, recycled “green” materials Add value, provide a service, not a commodity.
- 29. Planning, Funding & Future Trends A Regional Perspective Hasan Ikhrata Executive Director For California Asphalt Paving Association 29
Notas del editor
- 6 counties, 19 million people, etc.
- We are growingDemand for mobility and accessibility is growing
- Not all roads are asphalt thoughOver 3.5 billion square feet paved (not including local roads and parking lots)
- Notice the 13% on the left – New highways are no longer the priority in Southern California transportation planning.
- The current trend is definitely moving toward more transit investment and less new road construction.But who knew that would happen? Less than 25 years ago there was no passenger rail in the region.90 years ago we had a huge transit network.What is the next trend? Nobody really knows what the future will bring and what the implications will be for the asphalt paving industry.
- The current trend is definitely moving toward more transit investment and less new road construction.But who knew that would happen? Less than 25 years ago there was no passenger rail in the region.90 years ago we had a huge transit network.What is the next trend? Nobody really knows what the future will bring and what the implications will be for the asphalt paving industry.
- The current trend is definitely moving toward more transit investment and less new road construction.But who knew that would happen? Less than 25 years ago there was no passenger rail in the region.90 years ago we had a huge transit network.What is the next trend? Nobody really knows what the future will bring and what the implications will be for the asphalt paving industry.
- The current trend is definitely moving toward more transit investment and less new road construction.But who knew that would happen? Less than 25 years ago there was no passenger rail in the region.90 years ago we had a huge transit network.What is the next trend? Nobody really knows what the future will bring and what the implications will be for the asphalt paving industry.
- Capital construction still largest share of expenditures – 50%BUT majority of that is Transit. Highway construction is only 13% of this pie.
- How do we pay for it?Gas tax is not what it used to be.Despite population and overall VMT still climbing = increased demand for O&M
- Note large (and growing) local share. Can’t rely on Feds and state anymore.
- These are the “Additional” revenue sources represented on the previous slide.
- Possible Implications for asphalt industry – new land use developmentmore concentrated in corridors, less dispersedThese “re-development” “infill” areas are mostly already paved but will need new paving to support new development.Many cities and developers will be looking for new technologies – green and sustainable surfaces.
- Completing the transportation projects in the RTP will create a significant economic stimulus for the region. A large portion of the 174,500 construction jobs will be in the asphalt paving industry!
- There are still major projects coming;
- There are still major projects coming;
- Remember one of the 3 Over-arching strategies of the RTP
- The future trends are clear, per capita VMT peaked in 2005, before the recession. Although it ticked up slightly last year there is clear evidence that the demand for new “raw” lane miles has peaked.
- Deferring the maintenance of our transportation system will only result in much costlier repairs in the future, preserving our assets now is a critical priority of this RTP/SCS. Approximately $217 billion, or almost half of all of its proposed expenditures through 2035, is allocated to system preservation and maintenance. This large investment is a result of three decades of preservation underinvestment. Deficient road conditions are all too familiar to the region’s drivers, and without a renewed commitment to, costs will increase even more dramatically.
- Also includes Road diets, “complete streets,” etc.
- You are the experts on Asphalt technologies…The future of the asphalt industry, like other industries, may be lower quantities and higher engineering and quality. Planners and officials are hearing about Green Pavement, but they may not fully understand what that means. Low carbon content, pervious surfaces,locally sourced aggregate, etc.Suppliers need to view themselves as service providers, not material providers.