1. CFB Silver Report
March 2010
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2. The Silver Report
March 2010
Silver is an often under-appreciated metal. Categorized as a precious metal, it Europe
is immediately held up to the standard of gold, and - given the difference in price $ 67,623,486.06
North America
$ 384,971,777.25
– is usually overlooked as a potential investment. While the majority of gold is Asia
held (and traded) as an investment or by governments, this is not the case for $ 51,812,804.30
silver; the majority of silver sales are for manufacturing purposes and jewellery.
This lack of `float’ in the silver market may contribute to volatility in the silver
spot market.
Silver is certainly the proletariat of the precious metals world, having numerous
practical uses from medicine to photography to electronics. Silver is a main
South
component of salves and wraps for burn victims, as well as surgical tools. In
America
photography, a silver-based compound forms a thin layer on the film which $ 841,536,060.07
eventually transposes the images from the film to paper during processing.
Though personal cameras are swiftly moving to being almost exclusively digital
image capture, the movie industry still mainly uses film based cameras to Working Capital
Exploration/
shoot. Silver is one of the best conductors of heat and electricity, and is widely $ 20,665,612.01
Development
used across all sectors of industry. More than 50% of silver available in any $ 469,144,657.31
Debt Refinancing
given year is bought and used for industrial purposes. $ 363,047,819.57
Gold has become the `it’ commodity since the Great Recession began in early
2008. Spot prices have risen from an average of $700(USD) per ounce is the
summer of 2008, to over $1200(USD) in late 2009. Silver recovered from lows
of under $9 (USD) per ounce in early 2008 to over $19 (USD) in late 2009.
During this time gold production has risen, and mines in pre-production (in the
pipeline) are up significantly. Silver production has remained relatively flat
though, rising only 2.5% year over year from 2007 to 2008 while the pipeline
looks on pace to just maintain current production levels. Current economic Aquisition
(Land & Secondary Rights)
conditions have squelched industrial demand slightly, but the emergence of $ 493,086,038.79
silver ETFs has helped shore up demand. This potential for demand increase
by a recovering world economy plus the growth of these holding funds could
produce a demand squeeze that could put great upward pressure on silver 62 different companies
prices going forward. closed 161 financings in 2009.
Total proceeds (2009): $1,346m
Very few companies that produce silver are really necessarily looking for it.
Largest closing: $312m
Roughly 70% of silver output is as a secondary product of operations. Copper
and gold are typically hosted in similar geologies as silver, and the silver can be Average proceeds (by company): $21.7m
extracted from the concentrate fairly easily. Silver is also commonly found Average proceeds (per closing) $8.4m
along-side the base metals zinc and lead. A key component of many feasibility
studies are potential secondary streams of income from silver tailings.
SILVER - London Fix - Jan 01, 2009 to Dec 28, 2009
Buying the silver rights to these types of poly-metallic plays has been the route 22.00
Silver Wheaton Corp (SLW.TO) has taken in becoming one of the largest silver 20.00
producers trading on the TSX. In 2009, through their rights, SLW brought over 18.00
16m ounces to market. Canadian gold miner Kinross Gold Corp (K.TO) sold 16.00
nearly 14m ounces of silver from their gold projects in 2009. Primary silver 14.00
miner Couer d’Alene Mines Corp (CDM.TO) produced 17.7m ounces last year. 12.00
10.00
Yearly values are not available yet for 2009, but in 2008 680.9m ounces of 8.00
silver were mined while 888.4m ounces (or 28,564 tonnes) were available for
01Jan09
01Feb09
04Mar09
04Apr09
05May09
05Jun09
06Jul09
06Aug09
06Sept09
07Oct09
07Nov09
08Dec09
28Dec09
sale, realizing an average price of $14.99(USD) per ounce.

3. The Silver Report
March 2010
Canadian capital markets raised nearly $1.35b for primary silver production in 2009. Over $363m of that sum was for reworking or repaying debts;
$469m was earmarked for exploration and development programs; $493m went towards acquisitions (either of land or secondary production
streams); the remaining $21m went towards general working capital.
Of the ten major producing countries in the world, six are in the Americas, the two largest being Peru and Mexico. Of the $1.35b of financings,
$658m were spent on projects in Peru, and $329m were spent in Mexico. Fully 73% of silver financing activities in Canada were raised for these
two countries (these figures are representative of primary silver projects or silver stream acquisition.) Some other major producing countries
include China, Australia, Chile, and Poland.
Silver in the Next Decade
Special Contribution by David Morgan
As some of you know, I have finished a new mandate almost anything these days, so in California, for just one
seminar recently that I have only presented example, silver, lead, zinc, etc., are demanded to be captured for
one time. This presentation focused on what is environmental reasons and at a far greater cost than breakeven.
expected in the silver market for the next Please under stand that this is not a judgment call on our part but only
decade. Frankly, when beginning this study I a clarification of the fact that some silver is recycled—that is done, but
was not really certain what conclusions could not on an economic basis.
be determined about the future of the silver
market. The main thinking was that the Further, gold is used in many of the printed circuit (pc) boards and is
investment demand for silver would drive the economic if enough pc boards are processed. Since silver is almost
price far higher than present and this is in fact always on the same pc then obviously the silver is captured as well.
the case as we go through this report. But it was also determined that So to be conservative, the idea is that although the consumer
silver’s unique properties will be in higher and higher industrial demand electronics portion of demand will increase, so will the amount of
over the next decade as well. recycled silver. And for the purposes of this analysis, we will consider
the growth to recycle rate to remain in balance over the next ten years.
Before going into detail, it must be stated that anytime a long-term You do not have to agree with this assessment—just be aware of it.
projection of anything is presented there are bound to be errors. Things
change, life is dynamic, there may be new uses for silver in five years If we examine the past decade we will find some interesting facts
that no one is even aware of today. Secondly, there may be a substitute about the silver market, and for this report to carry the most meaning,
for silver discovered that might impact overall demand. However, as it is important to review some of the most important points about the
you study this month’s issue keep in mind the facts as they are silver market from roughly 2000 to 2010.
presented, and think through the ideas and projections to make your
own conclusions. The first fact is that the industrial demand was roughly 35% of the total
market but by 2010 the industrial component was 54% of the total
In an effort to not show my bias toward the bullish case for silver, there market, according to the Silver Institute.
are areas that are presented with little mention of increasing demand.
For example, the consumer electronic area is one that we assume is The silver market was in a deficit situation from about 1990 and
static in this report. Certainly, if the economy improves or perhaps if it carried through until 2007 or so, when, according to both the Silver
does not, a good case can be made that more electronic appliances will Institute and CPM Group, the total amount of mining had brought
be in use on a worldwide basis over the next decade. silver annual demand and annual supply into balance. Up until that
time period, the aboveground silver supply was disappearing rapidly
However, this study assumed little to no growth for two reasons. One: it at a rate of roughly 100 million ounces per year. From 1990 to 2007,
is a more conservative approach, meaning that the forecast for silver according to the best recognized studies on the silver market, about
demand will probably be better than projected. And two: the amount of 1.5 billion ounces of silver were eaten out of stockpiles.
recycled silver from electronics is increasing due to the amount of
printed circuit boards that are recycled. There is much more to the report... but the brief clip above may have
given you some insights into the silver market that you had not
Something I have presented on many occasions is that silver is consider previously.
“uneconomic” to retrieve in many electronic applications, and this is the
truth. However, governments do not have to run at a profit and can You can get this report for free if you attend one of Davids seminars..

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