1. 1
Delay & Feedback
In complex systems, cause and effect
are distant in time and space

2. 2
Behavior Over Time Graph
A BOTG is a simple tool that can help
people focus on patterns of change
over time rather than on isolated
events, leading to rich discussions on
how and why something is changing

3. 3
Time
Variables
BOTG (examples)

4. 4
Hours
Temperature
BOTG (examples)

5. 5
Years
Savings
BOTG (examples)

6. 6
Hours
Anger
Low
Medium
High
Plot your anger in Cookie Story

7. 7
Why use BOTG
 Helps focus on patterns of change over
time rather than on single events.
 Helps one think about underlining
causes of those changes.
 Helps to take proactive actions.

8. 8
What is the difference
between
Cause and Effect
Relationship
&
Causal Relationship

9. 9
Cause Effect
Cause & Effect

10. 10
Hunger
Consumption
of food
Cause & Effect

11. 11
A B C D
Cause & Effect

12. 12
Crop HarvestingPlanting
Seeds in
Development
Cause & Effect

13. 13
A B C D
Causal Relationship

14. 14
Crop HarvestingPlanting
Seeds in
Development
Causal Relationship

15. 15
Good
Teacher Academic
Success
Good
Parenting
Good Classroom
Environment
Intelligence
Multiple Causes & Effect.

16. 16
Good
Teacher
Academic
Success
Good
Parenting
Good Classroom
Environment
Intelligence
Causal Relationship

17. 17
Good Teacher
Academic
Success
Good Parenting
Good Classroom
Environment
Intelligence
Causal Relationship

18. 18
System & Causality
 A system always behaves based on
causal relationships and not on cause
and effect
 There are 3 fundamental building
blocks to a causal relationship
 Reinforcing Loop
 Balancing Loop
 Delay

19. 19
Reinforcing Processes
It means information that
compounds change in one
direction with even more
change in the same
direction.
Saving
Balance
Interest
Payment
S
S

20. 20
High motivation Success
Can you think of any other example of reinforcing loop?
S
S
Reinforcing Loop

21. 21
Unemployment
Poverty
Can you think of any other example of reinforcing loop?
Illiteracy
S
S
S
Reinforcing Loop

22. 22
Time
Variable
Can you draw a BOTG graph of Reinforcing
Loop ?

23. 23
Reading Time
Balance a paper tube
on your finger
G

24. 24
Balancing Processes
It means information which produces change in the
opposite direction negating the previous effect.
Corrective
Action
Gap
S
S
Actual
Grades
Goal
(Good Grades)
S
O

25. 25
Balancing Processes
It means information which produces change in the
opposite direction negating the previous effect.
Use of
Relaxation
Exercise
Gap
S
S
Stress
Level
Acceptable
Stress Level
S
O

26. 26
Hunger
Consumption
of food
Can you think of any other example of Balancing loop?
S
O
Balancing Loop

27. 27
Time
Variable
Can you draw a BOTG graph of Balancing loop ?

28. 28
 Variables - an element in a situation which may act or be acted
upon
  Vary up or down over time (not an event)
  Nouns or noun phrases (not action words)
 Links / Arrows - show the relationship and the direction
 of influence between variables
 S's and O's - show the way one variable moves or changes in
relation to another
  S stands for "same direction”
  O stands for "opposite direction”
 or B - Balancing feedback loop that seeks equilibrium
 or R - Reinforcing feedback loop that amplifies change
COMPONENTS OF A CAUSAL LOOP DIAGRAM

29. 29
These building blocks are:
1. Variables
2. Links
3. Mental Models/Thought Bubbles
4. Direction of Links/S's and O's
5. Delays
6. Type of Feedback Loops
Building Blocks Of Causal Loops

30. 30
Variables
Variables are typically neutral nouns or noun
phrases. They represent an element in a
situation where the pattern of behaviour
changes over time.
Examples:
1. Customers (rather than Lost Customers)
2. Sales (rather than Lost Sales)
3. Pledges & Promises
4. Service Quality (rather than Poor Service)

31. 31
Definition and Characteristics of a Variable
 Is an element in a situation that may act or be acted
upon.
 Its value can vary up or down over time.
 Is not an event.
 Is something you can discuss as "the level of . . . "
 Key test - it's a variable if you can plot its value over
time.

32. 32
Links
Links represent a causal relationship between two
variables.
A change in one variable causes a change in another.

33. 33
Mental Models/Thought Bubbles
Thought bubbles represent the thinking behind the
action/choice that the link expresses.

34. 34
Direction of Links / S's and O's
 Indicates the direction in which the
first variable impacts the second.
Direction can either be the same (S)
or opposite (O).

35. 35
Delay
A delay is indicated by a pair of parallel lines (//) on a
link. This symbol marks those links with the most
significant delays.

36. 36
Type of Feedback:
Reinforcing or Balancing There are only two
types of feedback: reinforcing and balancing.
Each has a characteristic pattern of
performance.
We note reinforcing feedback loops with an R in
the centre; balancing feedback loops are
marked with a B.

37. 37

38. 38
Employee
Performance
Supervisor’s
Supportive
Behavior
Unsupportive
Behavior
Structure
S
S
REINFORCING LOOP
Perf.
Level
Time
Behavior Over Time
Supportive
Behavior
Employee
Performance
Supervisor’s
Supportive
Behavior

39. 39
Discrepancy
Inventory
Adjustment
Structure
Actual
Inventory
Desired
Inventory
Desired Inventory
Time
Behavior Over Time
100
100 - -
100 ++
Actual Inventory
S
S
S
O
BALANCING LOOP

40. 40
Variables
In choosing variables, we are moving down the iceberg from the
level of events to the levels of patterns and structure. The first
variables to identify are our "performance" measures.
Examples of typical measures include costs, percent of projects
completed on schedule, employee retention, and success rate in
securing new contracts.
Keep in mind that when we use Systems Thinking tools for
problem solving, we are most likely to encounter situations with
"multiple symptoms of dysfunction" because of the complexity of
the underlying structure.

41. 41
Therefore, it is often appropriate to have more than one
condition or performance measure that we are interested in
understanding and changing.
The next variables of interest are the causes and
consequences of the performance or condition or symptom.
When identifying variables, we also want to look for variables
that represent our "policies" or decisions and the actions of
others that are a result of both problems and success.
In terms of creative tension, identifying variables is a way to
describe current reality as key patterns of behaviour over time.

42. 42
Therefore, it is often appropriate to have more than
one condition or performance measure that we are
interested in understanding and changing.
The next variables of interest are the causes and
consequences of the performance or condition or
symptom.
When identifying variables, we also want to look for
variables that represent our "policies" or decisions
and the actions of others that are a result of both
problems and success.
In terms of creative tension, identifying variables is a
way to describe current reality as key patterns of
behaviour over time.

43. 43
Definition and Characteristics of a Variable
 Is an element in a situation that may act or be acted
upon.
 Its value can vary up or down over time.
 Is not an event.
 Is something you can discuss as "the level of . . . "
 Key test - it's a variable if you can plot its value over
time.

44. 44
Exercises / Practicing Loops
 Money in Bank / Interest payments
 Thirst / Drinking
 Angry feelings / Angry thoughts
 Baby Rabbits / Adult Rabbits
 Effort / Learning
 Room Temperature / A/C running