CID December Meeting | Commercial Market Forecast
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Presentation from Dr. Frank Hefner with the College of Charleston, presented on December 3, 2020 to the Commercial Investment Division of the Charleston Trident Association of Realtors. Covers an economic update as well as information about the local commercial real estate market.
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CID December Meeting | Commercial Market Forecast
- 1. Charleston Trident Association of Realtors Economic Update December 3, 2020 Frank Hefner ?????? UNCERTAINTY???????
- 3. Inclement Weather Month Event Oct-2015 Charleston flood Oct-2016 Hurricane Matthew Sep-2017 Hurricane Irma Jan-2018 Ice storm Sep-2018 Hurricane Florence Sep-2019 Hurricane Dorian 2020 Lucky! So far! Year Charleston County Occupancy State of SC Percent Occupancy 2014 69.2% 61.0% 2015 73.7% 62.0% 2016 75.6% 63.8% 2017 76.7% 63.9% 2018 78.9% 63.7%
- 22. 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% Charleston County Hotel Occupancy 2020 2019
- 33. WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY A VOLCANO WILL ERUPT IN CHARLESTON? FORECASTING POST COVID
Notas del editor
- Source: Baker, Scott R. Source: Bloom, Nick Source: Davis, Stephen J. Release: Economic Policy Uncertainty Units: Index, Not Seasonally Adjusted Frequency: Monthly The Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index is a GDP-weighted average of national EPU indices for 20 countries: Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, France, Germany, Greece, India, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Mexico, the Netherlands, Russia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the United States.. For additional details, including an analysis of the performance of the model, see Baker, Scott, Nicholas Bloom and Steven Davis (2016), "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty" Baker, Scott R., Bloom, Nick and Davis, Stephen J., Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index: Current Price Adjusted GDP [GEPUCURRENT], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GEPUCURRENT, October 6, 2020.
- Source: Baker, Scott R. Source: Bloom, Nick Source: Davis, Stephen J. Release: Economic Policy Uncertainty Units: Index, Not Seasonally Adjusted Frequency: Daily, 7-Day The daily news-based Economic Policy Uncertainty Index is based on newspapers in the United States.For additional details, including an analysis of the performance of the model, see Baker, Scott, Nicholas Bloom and Steven Davis (2012), "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty" Baker, Scott R., Bloom, Nick and Davis, Stephen J., Economic Policy Uncertainty Index for United States [USEPUINDXD], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USEPUINDXD, October 6, 2020.
- Source: Baker, Scott R. Source: Bloom, Nick Source: Davis, Stephen J. Release: Economic Policy Uncertainty Units: Index, Not Seasonally Adjusted Frequency: Daily, 7-Day Assessing the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic is essential for policymakers, but challenging because the crisis has unfolded with extreme speed. We identify three indicators: stock market volatility, newspaper-based economic uncertainty, and subjective uncertainty in business expectation surveys that provide real-time forward-looking uncertainty measures. We use these indicators to document and quantify the enormous increase in economic uncertainty in the past several weeks. For more information, see Baker, Scott, Nicholas Bloom and Steven Davis (2020), 'COVID-INDUCED ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY' Baker, Scott R., Bloom, Nick and Davis, Stephen J., Equity Market Volatility: Infectious Disease Tracker [INFECTDISEMVTRACKD], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INFECTDISEMVTRACKD, October 6, 2020.
- Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Release: Gross Domestic Product Units: Billions of Chained 2012 Dollars, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate Frequency: Quarterly BEA Account Code: A191RXReal gross domestic product is the inflation adjusted value of the goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States.For more information see the Guide to the National Income and Product Accounts of the United States (NIPA). For more information, please visit the Bureau of Economic Analysis. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Real Gross Domestic Product [GDPC1], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1, November 30, 2020.
- Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Release: Gross Domestic Product Units: Percent Change from Preceding Period, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate Frequency: Quarterly BEA Account Code: A191RLGross domestic product (GDP) is the value of the goods and services produced by the nation's economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production. GDP is also equal to the sum of personal consumption expenditures, gross private domestic investment, net exports of goods and services, and government consumption expenditures and gross investment. Real values are inflation-adjusted estimates—that is, estimates that exclude the effects of price changes.For more information about this series, please visit the Bureau of Economic Analysis. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Real Gross Domestic Product [A191RL1Q225SBEA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RL1Q225SBEA, November 30, 2020.
- Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US) Release: H.15 Selected Interest Rates Units: Percent, Not Seasonally Adjusted Frequency: Daily Discount Basis Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), 1-Year Treasury Bill: Secondary Market Rate [DTB1YR], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DTB1YR, November 28, 2020.
- Source: Freddie Mac Release: Primary Mortgage Market Survey Units: Percent, Not Seasonally Adjusted Frequency: Weekly, Ending Thursday Data is provided "as is," by Freddie Mac® with no warranties of any kind, express or implied, including, but not limited to, warranties of accuracy or implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. Use of the data is at the user's sole risk. In no event will Freddie Mac be liable for any damages arising out of or related to the data, including, but not limited to direct, indirect, incidental, special, consequential, or punitive damages, whether under a contract, tort, or any other theory of liability, even if Freddie Mac is aware of the possibility of such damages.Copyright, 2016, Freddie Mac. Reprinted with permission. Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States [MORTGAGE30US], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US, November 28, 2020.
- Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Source: U.S. Office of Management and Budget Release: Debt to Gross Domestic Product Ratios Units: Percent of GDP, Seasonally Adjusted Frequency: Quarterly Federal Debt: Total Public Debt as Percent of Gross Domestic Product (GFDEGDQ188S) was first constructed by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in October 2012. It is calculated using Federal Government Debt: Total Public Debt (GFDEBTN) and Gross Domestic Product, 1 Decimal (GDP):GFDEGDQ188S = ((GFDEBTN/1000)/GDP)*100GFDEBTN/1000 transforms GFDEBTN from millions of dollars to billions of dollars. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and U.S. Office of Management and Budget, Federal Debt: Total Public Debt as Percent of Gross Domestic Product [GFDEGDQ188S], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S, December 2, 2020.
- Source: U.S. Employment and Training Administration Release: State Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report Units: Number, Not Seasonally Adjusted Frequency: Weekly, Ending Saturday An initial claim is a claim filed by an unemployed individual after a separation from an employer. The claim requests a determination of basic eligibility for the Unemployment Insurance program. U.S. Employment and Training Administration, Initial Claims in South Carolina [SCICLAIMS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SCICLAIMS, November 28, 2020.
- Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Release: State and Metro Area Employment, Hours, and Earnings Units: Thousands of Persons, Not Seasonally Adjusted Frequency: Monthly Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, All Employees: Retail Trade in South Carolina [SMU45000004200000001], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SMU45000004200000001, December 2, 2020.
- Source: U.S. Census Bureau Release: Monthly State Retail Sales Units: Percent Change from Year Ago, Not Seasonally Adjusted Frequency: Monthly The Monthly State Retail Sales (MSRS) report is a blended data product combining Monthly Retail Trade Survey data, administrative data, and third-party data. Data are available for year-over-year percent changes for Total Retail Sales excluding Nonstore Retailers as well as 11 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) retail subsectors.For more information on the MSRS view the methodology. This is the first version of these experimental data.This series measures retail sales for home centers; paint and wallpaper stores; hardware stores; other building material dealers; outdoor power equipment stores; nursery, garden center, and farm supply stores. The listed retailers correspond to 44411, 44412, 44413, 44419, 44421, 44422 in the 2017 NAICS manual." U.S. Census Bureau, Monthly State Retail Sales: Building Material and Garden Equipment and Supplies Dealers in South Carolina [MSRSSC444], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSRSSC444, December 2, 2020.
- Source: U.S. Census Bureau Release: Monthly State Retail Sales Units: Percent Change from Year Ago, Not Seasonally Adjusted Frequency: Monthly The Monthly State Retail Sales (MSRS) report is a blended data product combining Monthly Retail Trade Survey data, administrative data, and third-party data. Data are available for year-over-year percent changes for Total Retail Sales excluding Nonstore Retailers as well as 11 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) retail subsectors.For more information on the MSRS view the methodology. This is the first version of these experimental data.This series measures retail sales for gasoline stations. The listed retailers correspond to 4471 in the 2017 NAICS manual." U.S. Census Bureau, Monthly State Retail Sales: Gasoline Stations in South Carolina [MSRSSC447], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSRSSC447, December 2, 2020.
- Source: U.S. Census Bureau Release: Monthly State Retail Sales Units: Percent Change from Year Ago, Not Seasonally Adjusted Frequency: Monthly The Monthly State Retail Sales (MSRS) report is a blended data product combining Monthly Retail Trade Survey data, administrative data, and third-party data. Data are available for year-over-year percent changes for Total Retail Sales excluding Nonstore Retailers as well as 11 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) retail subsectors.For more information on the MSRS view the methodology. This is the first version of these experimental data.This series measures retail sales for all retailers except nonstore retailers. The listed retailers correspond to 44-45 in the 2017 NAICS manual." U.S. Census Bureau, Monthly State Retail Sales: Total Retail Sales Excluding Nonstore Retailers in South Carolina [MSRSSCTOTAL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSRSSCTOTAL, December 2, 2020.
- Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Release: State and Metro Area Employment, Hours, and Earnings Units: Thousands of Persons, Seasonally Adjusted Frequency: Monthly This series is seasonally adjusted by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, All Employees: Leisure and Hospitality: Accommodation and Food Services in South Carolina [SMS45000007072000001], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SMS45000007072000001, December 2, 2020.
- Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Release: State Employment and Unemployment Units: Thousands of Persons, Seasonally Adjusted Frequency: Monthly U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, All Employees: Manufacturing in South Carolina [SCMFG], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SCMFG, December 2, 2020.
- Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Release: State Employment and Unemployment Units: Thousands of Persons, Seasonally Adjusted Frequency: Monthly U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, All Employees: Total Nonfarm in Charleston-North Charleston, SC (MSA) [CHAR745NA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CHAR745NA, November 29, 2020.
- Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Release: State and Metro Area Employment, Hours, and Earnings Units: Thousands of Persons, Not Seasonally Adjusted Frequency: Monthly Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, All Employees: Leisure and Hospitality: Accommodation and Food Services in Charleston-North Charleston, SC (MSA) [SMU45167007072000001], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SMU45167007072000001, October 6, 2020.
- Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Release: State Employment and Unemployment Units: Thousands of Persons, Not Seasonally Adjusted Frequency: Monthly U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, All Employees: Leisure and Hospitality in Charleston-North Charleston, SC (MSA) [CHAR745LEIHN], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CHAR745LEIHN, November 29, 2020.
- Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Release: Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment Units: Percent, Not Seasonally Adjusted Frequency: Monthly U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Unemployment Rate in Charleston-North Charleston-Summerville, SC (MSA) [CHAR745URN], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CHAR745URN, November 29, 2020.
- Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Release: State Employment and Unemployment Units: Thousands of Persons, Not Seasonally Adjusted Frequency: Monthly U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, All Employees: Manufacturing in Charleston-North Charleston, SC (MSA) [CHAR745MFGN], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CHAR745MFGN, November 29, 2020.
- Source: U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency Release: House Price Index Units: Index 1995:Q1=100, Not Seasonally Adjusted Frequency: Quarterly Estimated using sales prices and appraisal data. U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency, All-Transactions House Price Index for Charleston-North Charleston, SC (MSA) [ATNHPIUS16700Q], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ATNHPIUS16700Q, November 28, 2020.
- Source: U.S. Census Bureau Release: Housing Units Authorized By Building Permits Units: Units, Not Seasonally Adjusted Frequency: Monthly This series represents the total number of building permits for all structure types. Structure types include 1-unit, 2-unit, 3-unit, 4-unit, and 5-unit or more.The Saint Louis Federal Reserve Bank uses the most recent Metropolitan Statistical Area definitions released by the Office of Management and Budget. For more information on specific definitions visit here. U.S. Census Bureau, New Private Housing Structures Authorized by Building Permits for Charleston-North Charleston, SC (MSA) [CHAR745BPPRIV], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CHAR745BPPRIV, November 29, 2020.
- Source: International Monetary Fund Release: Financial Soundness Indicators Units: Percent Change from Year Ago, Not Seasonally Adjusted Frequency: Quarterly This series covers commercial real estate price indices. Currently, there is limited international experience in constructing representative real estate price indices as real estate markets are heterogeneous, both within and across countries, and illiquid. A rapid increase in real estate prices, followed by a sharp economic downturn, can have a detrimental effect on financial sector soundness by affecting credit quality and the value of collateral.Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm. International Monetary Fund, Commercial Real Estate Prices for United States [COMREPUSQ159N], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/COMREPUSQ159N, December 1, 2020.
- Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Source: Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council (US) Release: Reports of Condition and Income for All Insured U.S. Commercial Banks Units: Percent, Not Seasonally Adjusted Frequency: Quarterly, End of Period This series is constructed as a sum of Total Loan and Lease Finance Receivables, Nonaccrual call item RCFD1403 and Total Loan and Lease Finance Receivables, Past Due 90 Days or More and Still Accruing call item RCFD1407 to the Total Loans and Leases, Net of Unearned Income call item RCFD2122.Geographic location is determined by Abbreviated State Name call item RSSD9200 = 'SC' representing two character state abbreviation of South Carolina.For more information and definition about the specific call item codes, please see http://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/mdrm/data-dictionary.This series is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using raw data that are collected by the FFIEC. Raw data can be found at https://cdr.ffiec.gov/public/. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council (US), Nonperforming Loans (past due 90+ days plus nonaccrual) to Total Loans for Banks in South Carolina [SCNPTL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SCNPTL, December 2, 2020.
- Source: U.S. Census Bureau Release: Weekly Business Formation Statistics Units: Percent Change from Year Ago, Not Seasonally Adjusted Frequency: Weekly, Ending Saturday Business Applications (BA): The core business applications series that corresponds to a subset of all EIN applications. BA includes all applications for an EIN, except for applications for tax liens, estates, trusts, or certain financial filings, applications with no state-county geocodes, applications from certain agricultural, public entities, and applications in certain industries (e.g. private households, civic and social organizations).See "About the Data" for more details. U.S. Census Bureau, Business Applications for South Carolina [BUSAPPWNSASCYY], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BUSAPPWNSASCYY, December 2, 2020.