Evolution of Inherent to Current and Forecast/Target Risk Exposure

1. Original Source Unknown Pontifications added by Chris Ritson 27th May 2021 This Cartoon Best Describes the Starting Point… The initial (perception) or Risk Assessment, of an Unmitigated Risk. Also known as the “Inherent” risk exposure It generally ignores a lot of real-life context, Including processes, plans, legal requirements And of course – human instincts & behaviours!

2. I’m a competent professional. I better wear some appropriate PPE (or risk facing a non- compliance report / corrective action + the more immediate consequences of ‘wet feet’) Original Source Unknown Pontifications added by Chris Ritson 27th May 2021

3. I’m a competent professional. I better wear some appropriate PPE (or risk facing a non- compliance report / corrective action + the more immediate consequences of ‘wet feet’) Original Source Unknown Pontifications added by Chris Ritson 27th May 2021 No x x

4. I’m a competent professional. I better wear some appropriate PPE (or risk facing a non- compliance report / corrective action + the more immediate consequences of ‘wet feet’) Original Source Unknown Pontifications added by Chris Ritson 27th May 2021 No x x #NoBrainer = NoDecision = NoRisk

5. Original Source Unknown Pontifications added by Chris Ritson 27th May 2021 No x x #NoBrainer = NoDecision = NoRisk I work for in a ‘safety first’ risk-aware culture. I will play my small part by reporting this as a “Near-Miss” / “Close-Call”, because the smaller observations help us detect the larger less obvious ones that will emerge to do real harm!

6. Original Source Unknown Pontifications added by Chris Ritson 27th May 2021 No x x #NoBrainer = NoDecision = NoRisk I work for in a ‘safety first’ risk-aware culture. I will play my small part by reporting this as a “Near-Miss” / “Close-Call”, because the smaller observations help us detect the larger less obvious ones that will emerge to do real harm! The Real Risk Is actually Hidden Void x

7. Original Source Unknown Pontifications added by Chris Ritson 27th May 2021 No x x #NoBrainer = NoDecision = NoRisk I work for in a ‘safety first’ risk-aware culture. I will play my small part by reporting this as a “Near-Miss” / “Close-Call”, because the smaller observations help us detect the larger less obvious ones that will emerge to do real harm! The Real Risk Is actually Hidden Void x #MakeTheImplicitExplicit #WeakSignalDetection

8. Original Source Unknown Pontifications added by Chris Ritson 27th May 2021 No x x #NoBrainer = NoDecision = NoRisk The Real Risk Is actually Hidden Void x #MakeTheImplicitExplicit #WeakSignalDetection Yeah, I’m pretty sure this is unacceptable. I don’t care what the odds are on the face of it! If I & my work buddies have to jump this 10x per day (each), over time this actually increases the chances that we’ll get unlucky eventually. Even if it’s never happened before. We’re going to need a smarter plan!

9. Original Source Unknown Pontifications added by Chris Ritson 27th May 2021 No x x #NoBrainer = NoDecision = NoRisk The Real Risk Is actually Hidden Void x #MakeTheImplicitExplicit #WeakSignalDetection Yeah, I’m pretty sure this is unacceptable. I don’t care what the odds are on the face of it! If I & my work buddies have to jump this 10x per day (each), over time this actually increases the chances that we’ll get unlucky eventually. Even if it’s never happened before. We’re going to need a smarter plan! 1 Day’s Pay Vs. Infinite Death

10. Original Source Unknown Pontifications added by Chris Ritson 27th May 2021 No x x #NoBrainer = NoDecision = NoRisk The Real Risk Is actually Hidden Void x #MakeTheImplicitExplicit #WeakSignalDetection Yeah, I’m pretty sure this is unacceptable. I don’t care what the odds are on the face of it! If I & my work buddies have to jump this 10x per day (each), over time this actually increases the chances that we’ll get unlucky eventually. Even if it’s never happened before. We’re going to need a smarter plan! 1 Day’s Pay Vs. Infinite Death #NoBrainer = NoDecision = NoRisk #PastPerformanceDoesn’t GuaranteeFuturePerformance

11. Original Source Unknown Pontifications added by Chris Ritson 27th May 2021 No x x #NoBrainer = NoDecision = NoRisk The Real Risk Is actually Hidden Void x #MakeTheImplicitExplicit #WeakSignalDetection 1 Day’s Pay Vs. Infinite Death #NoBrainer = NoDecision = NoRisk #PastPerformanceDoesn’t GuaranteeFuturePerformance Thank Goodness that nobody expects me to even attempt to cross this & we have a plan! I suppose the plan still has many unknowns & decisions that might need to be taken ahead of knowing all of the variables. I shall focus my energies on making our actual plan the best it can be

12. Original Source Unknown Pontifications added by Chris Ritson 27th May 2021 No x x #NoBrainer = NoDecision = NoRisk The Real Risk Is actually Hidden Void x #MakeTheImplicitExplicit #WeakSignalDetection 1 Day’s Pay Vs. Infinite Death #NoBrainer = NoDecision = NoRisk #PastPerformanceDoesn’t GuaranteeFuturePerformance Thank Goodness that nobody expects me to even attempt to cross this & we have a plan! I suppose the plan still has many unknowns & decisions that might need to be taken ahead of knowing all of the variables. I shall focus my energies on making our actual plan the best it can be Not The Real Risk x

13. Original Source Unknown Pontifications added by Chris Ritson 27th May 2021 No x x #NoBrainer = NoDecision = NoRisk The Real Risk Is actually Hidden Void x #MakeTheImplicitExplicit #WeakSignalDetection 1 Day’s Pay Vs. Infinite Death #NoBrainer = NoDecision = NoRisk #PastPerformanceDoesn’t GuaranteeFuturePerformance Thank Goodness that nobody expects me to even attempt to cross this & we have a plan! I suppose the plan still has many unknowns & decisions that might need to be taken ahead of knowing all of the variables. I shall focus my energies on making our actual plan the best it can be Not The Real Risk x #NotThePlan = NoRisk #RiskAssessTheActualPlan! …(& stick with it until you’ve risk assessed any change/opportunity) #Sense&Respond

14. I’m a competent professional. I better wear some appropriate PPE (or risk facing a non- compliance report / corrective action + the more immediate consequences of ‘wet feet’) #NoBrainer = NoDecision = NoRisk #MakeTheImplicitExplicit #WeakSignalDetection #NoBrainer = NoDecision = NoRisk #PastPerformanceDoesn’t GuaranteeFuturePerformance #NotThePlan = NoRisk #RiskAssessTheActualPlan! …(& stick with it until you’ve risk assessed any change/opportunity) #Sense&Respond I work for in a ‘safety first’ risk-aware culture. I will play my small part by reporting this as a “Near-Miss” / “Close-Call”, because the smaller observations help us detect the larger less obvious ones that will emerge to do real harm! No x x 1 Day’s Pay Vs. Infinite Death Yeah, I’m pretty sure this is unacceptable. I don’t care what the odds are on the face of it! If I & my work buddies have to jump this 10x per day (each), over time this actually increases the chances that we’ll get unlucky eventually. Even if it’s never happened before. We’re going to need a smarter plan! The Real Risk Is actually x Thank Goodness that nobody expects me to even attempt to cross this & we have a plan! I suppose the plan still has many unknowns & decisions that might need to be taken ahead of knowing all of the variables. I shall focus my energies on making our actual plan the best it can be Hidden Void Not The Real Risk x Original Source Unknown Pontifications added by Chris Ritson 27th May 2021

Evolution of Inherent to Current and Forecast/Target Risk Exposure

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Evolution of Inherent to Current and Forecast/Target Risk Exposure