Enhanced software method to performing quantitative risk analysis with tangible outputs that can be used to assist decision making e.g. Cost Benefit Analysis + other benefits when using Safran Risk

1. Sensitivity Analysis by Exclusion
3 Improvements To Your Manual Approaches

2. © SAFRAN SOFTWARE 2020
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Safran Risk’s Enhanced Method
1. Automated - Faster & Eliminates Human Error
2. Unbiased Data Sets (1) - Retains memory of original random iterations
3. Unbiased Data Sets (2) - Auto-Removes risks in appropriate sequence

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Traditional Monte-Carlo Output Limitations
• Cumulative S-curve
with all risks included
• No feel for which risks
‘drive’ the output
(& by how much)
• Tornado diagrams
imply rank order via
correlation coefficient
• Not a tangible (or intuitive)
unit of time / cost

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Sensitivity Analysis by Exclusion: Single Pass
• Select desired
confidence level
e.g. p80

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Sensitivity Analysis by Exclusion: Single Pass
• Select desired
confidence level
e.g. p80
• Revisits the existing
1,000s of samples
• Removes one risk at a
time
• Measures the delta
• Quickly compares
“apples with apples”
Not one set of random iterations
compared against another
random set (which would be the
case if performing manually)

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Sensitivity Analysis by Exclusion: Multi-Pass
1. Uses the single-
pass method to
initially establish
the rank order of
risks
2. Removes the top
risk & runs another
1,000 simulations
3. Measures the delta
4. Repeats steps
above until all
desired risks have
been re-calculated
(Enhances output accuracy by removing dominant risks that may have masked impact of smaller risks)

7. Bonus Benefit
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• Pre-emptively select schedule
activities or milestones to enrich
your conversation with decision-
makers &
• Reward those who invested
their time & effort to help create
your model with valuable
insights via automated
Sensitivity Analysis!

8. Want to know more?
Please get in touch for a trial license
https://www.safran.com/risk-free-trial
Or join us at our next online
interactive learning session
https://www.safran.com/training/safran-risk-learning-session