Why time complicates climate change - and what to do about it
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This is a longer version of the presentation I gave at TED in Cardiff in 2010. This was done for Imperial College
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Why time complicates climate change - and what to do about it
- 1. Climate change and time traps …and what to do Disclaimer: not necessarily the views of the Welsh Government
- 2. Time trap 1: environmental inertia
- 3. IPCC emissions scenarios Modelled warming Source: Hadley Centre
- 4. Time trap 2: infrastructure upgrade
- 6. Time trap 3: innovation
- 7. Toyota hybrid sales 800 Thousands 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
- 8. Toyota total sales - hybrid and non-hybrid 10.0 Millions 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
- 9. Time trap 4: changing human behaviour
- 10. Smoking prevalence All > age 16 (Britain) 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
- 11. Time trap 5: economic expectations
- 12. Gross World Product - US$ relative to 2010 = 1.0 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 10x 0.2 0.0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
- 13. Gross World Product - US$ relative to 2010 = 1.0 1.2 1.0 0.8 2.4% per person 0.6 per year 0.4 0.2 0.0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
- 14. Gross World Product - US$ relative to 2010 = 1.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 7x 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
- 15. GDP growth has huge GHG increase potential CO2 emissions per capita (tonnes/year) GDP per capita current US$ World Bank – World Development Indicators . Visualisation by Google public data explorer
- 18. Most important issues facing Britain 100 90 Pollution / environment 80 70 60 Ozone hole 50 Peak concern on climate 40 change 30 20 10 0 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
- 19. Most important issues facing Britain 100 90 80 Unemployment 70 Economy 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
- 20. Non-negotiable? Living within ecological limits is the non negotiable basis for our social and economic development Jonathan Porritt
- 21. The negotiation
- 22. Time trap 6: price expectations
- 23. Oil price US$/barrel Brent crude 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
- 24. Carbon price expectations Shadow cost of carbon £/tCO2 EU ETS carbon price 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
- 25. Part 2: What to do about it?
- 26. What to do 1: just stop it!
- 27. Stop it! The 2oC commitment… CO2 scenarios for approximately 37% chance of not exceeding 2°C. Developing countries peak in 2020 and fall at 8% per year after Developed countries peak in 2010 and fall at 10% per year after Anderson K , Bows A Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 2011;369:20-44
- 28. What to do 2: form clubs
- 29. 20 countries - 80% emissions Source: Garnaut Climate Change Review
- 30. Concentration in innovation investment Gross expenditure on public & private R&D , 2007 100% Percentage share of global total 80 60 40 20 0 Japan China France Korea Brazil Canada United United India Germany Kingdom Russia States Source: David Victor, Global Warming Gridlock - citing UNESCO data
- 31. What to do 3: switch to policies & measures
- 32. What to do 4: pricing not quantities Create a carbon price 2010= 1.0 16.0 14.0 • Globally co-ordinated carbon tax • Nationally collected 12.0 • Predictably rising • Very long term 10.0 • No shocks 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
- 33. What to do 5: deals • Nuclear fuel cycle management • LNG infrastructure for China • Forest and sink protection • Grid infrastructure for desert solar concentrators • Product and building energy efficiency standards • Water trading and river basin management • Carbon pricing with border tax adjustments • Global sectoral agreements – automotive, aviation, steel • Etc etc…
- 34. What to do 6: focus on ‘no regrets’
- 35. What to do 7: innovation strategy Energy storage density Hydrogen Gasoline Energy density by weight (watt hours / kg) 10,000 Ethanol CNG Bio-diesel Liquid fuels Diesel Gaseous fuels 1,000 Hydrogen absorbing alloy Batteries 100 Lithium-ion Nickel metal 10 Lead 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 Energy density by volume (watt hours / litre) Source: Toyota
- 36. What to do 8: emphasise adaptation
- 37. Misallocation: low carbon vs adaptation? Source: Policy Exchange, Delivering 21st Infrastructure for Britain, 2009
- 39. What to do 9: the geoengineering hedge
- 40. What to do 10: future proofing
- 41. Six time traps 1. Environmental response 2. Infrastructure 3. Innovation 4. Human behaviour Thank you 5. Economic expectations 6. Price signals What to do? Ten thoughts… 1. Stop it! 2. Clubs 3. Policies & measures 4. Global carbon price 5. Deals 6. No-regrets 7. Innovation 8. Adaptation 9. Geoengineering hedge 10. Future proofing
Notas del editor
- Note actual growth in emissions~ 2.7% p.a. last 100yrs~ 3.5% p.a. 2000-2007
- The world’s fleet of passenger vehicles is now an estimated 622 million, up from 500 million in 2000 and just53 million in 195070 million vehicles per year but just 500,000 (<1%) are hybrids and3% of UK primary energy from renewables – aim to increase it to 15% by 2020200,000 houses completed – 27,000,000 houses (<1%)
- Q What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today?Q What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today?(Unprompted - combined answers)
- Q What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today?Q What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today?(Unprompted - combined answers)