New launches in Q1 2011 fell to a more sustainable level following the frenetic previous six months. Concerns of an overheating property market have been allayed as a result. The condominium market has begun the process of consolidation.
Within urban Bangkok, the Northern and Southern fringes led the way in new launches with around 15% each for the total of the whole of Bangkok. The Suburban area accounted for around 56% of the total.
Around 3,500 units were supplied in Q1 2011, a slight decrease q/q. For the past two years, quarterly additions to new supply have been remarkably stable.
The earthquake in Chiang Mai in March 2011 caused many potential buyers to pay attention to the resilience of buildings to damage from such events. More may be required to address these concerns although Bangkok is far from areas prone to serious seismic activity.
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Bangkok Condominium Market Report Q1 2011
1. Q1 2011 | Condominium
THAIlAnd
Bangkok Condominium
market rePort
Bangkok Condominium Market
exeCuTIve SummARy
new launches in Q1 2011 fell to a more sustainable level following the frenetic previous six months.
Concerns of an overheating property market have been allayed as a result. the condominium
market has begun the process of consolidation.
Within urban Bangkok, the northern and Southern fringes led the way in new launches with
around 15% each for the total of the whole of Bangkok. the Suburban area accounted for around
56% of the total.
mARKeT IndICAToRS
around 3,500 units were supplied in Q1 2011, a slight decrease q/q. For the past two years,
Q4 2010 - Q1 2011
quarterly additions to new supply have been remarkably stable.
new Supply
the earthquake in Chiang mai in march 2011 caused many potential buyers to pay attention to the
lAunCHeS resilience of buildings to damage from such events. more may be required to address these
concerns although Bangkok is far from areas prone to serious seismic activity.
pRICeS
TAKe-up
newly lAunCHed CondomInIum unITS duRIng THe yeAR 2010 – Q1 2011 by QuARTeR
Source: Colliers international thailand research
new launches for Q1 2011 were down compared with the previous quarter by around 46%. Just
under 10,800 units were launched in Q1 compared to around 20,000 in Q4 2010. at the end of
last year, there were worries that the market was beginning to overheat with the substantial
number of new units being launched. the Bank of thailand sought to cool the market with a
regulation limiting the maximum loan to value (LtV) to 90% for condominiums priced below 10
million baht. this, coupled with small increases in interest rates, has had the effect of cooling the
market.
www.colliers.co.th
2. Bangkok Condominium market rePort | Q1 2011
newly lAunCHed CondomInIum unITS In Q1 2011 by loCATIon
Source : Colliers international thailand research
in Q1 2011, the Suburban Bangkok area trumped urban Bangkok with the of each location from the total. the City area was third, with 600 units.
higher number of units launched. many projects in the Suburban Bangkok the Southern Fringe area number was on the back of one large-scale
area contain over 600 units. project, the trust ratchada rama 3.
Within urban Bangkok, the northern Fringe and Southern Fringe areas
have shown the highest numbers with approximately 1,600 units or 15%
AddITIonAl Supply by QuARTeR
Source: department of Land, Colliers international thailand research
remark: the number of units does not include projects from the national Housing authority
approximately 3,500 new condominium units were completed and 39,500 units are scheduled to be completed in 2011. the number of
registered at the department of Land in Q1 2011 and the total number of condominium units under construction and scheduled to be completed in
the whole of Bangkok was approximately 300,000 units, and more than 2011 is the highest since the global financial crisis in 1997.
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | P. 2
3. Bangkok Condominium market rePort | Q1 2011
ToTAl HISToRICAl Supply by loCATIon To 1Q 2011
Source: department of Land, Colliers international thailand research
more than 195,000 condominium units, around 65% of the total, are compared to the City area. the outer City areas are appearing on the
located in the Suburban Bangkok area. Within the urban Bangkok area, radar screen due to the extension of the BtS across the Chao Phra Ya
the northern Fringe contains the most units due to its proximity to the river and along Sukhumvit road and this is set to continue.
city centre, mass transit connections and relatively lower land prices
fuTuRe Supply – uRbAn bAngKoK
CumulATIve fuTuRe Supply SCHeduled To be CompleTed duRIng 2011 – 2013 by loCATIon In uRbAn bAngKoK (AS of Q1
2011)
Source: Colliers international thailand research
remark: Supply does not included units in Suburban Bangkok
approximately 21,150 units are scheduled to be completed during the 2011, followed by the City area with around 6,200 units. it is expected
rest of 2011. the northern Fringe area continues to be the main player that the northern Fringe will continue to dominate supply for the early
in urban Bangkok, with nearly 8,500 units scheduled to be completed in part of the decade in urban Bangkok.
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | P. 3
4. Bangkok Condominium market rePort | Q1 2011
TAKe-up
AveRAge SAleS pRopoRTIon of newly lAunCHed unITS In Q1 2011 by loCATIon
Source: Colliers international thailand research
the occupancy rate in the Suburban Bangkok area was the highest, project from Sansiri. the on nut-Bearing extension line is close to the
followed by the eastern Fringe and outer City - east areas. the positive date of the official opening in august 2011 and this spurred take-up in the
figures for the eastern Fringe are the result of a popular newly launched outer City - east area.
lAunCHeS wITH HIgH TAKe up RATeS In Q1 2011
LPn returned to the number one spot in the condominium market in the project by LPn is Lumpini Condotown nida – Serithai, located on Serithai
first quarter of 2011 with three projects in two locations, although both road, with a total unit of 593 units and one of the highest take-up rates.
locations are in Suburban Bangkok. LPn launched two projects at the as a result LPn launched a new project, Lumpini Condotown nida –
same time. Lumpini Ville Lasal – Barring on Sukhumvit 105 road has Serithai 2 opposite the first project with 750 units. the new project also
1,028 units and showed the highest take-up rate of almost 100%. another has a high take-up rate.
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | P. 4
5. Bangkok Condominium market rePort | Q1 2011
u – delight 2 @ Bangsue Station by grand u Living Co., Ltd. is located Station with a total of 645 units in the Suburban Bangkok area and had
on Prachachuen road in the same location of u – delight @ Bangsue a high take-up rate of more than 80% shortly after the initial launch.
AveRAge SellIng pRICeS of newly lAunCHed pRojeCTS by loCATIon, Q1 2011
Source : Colliers international thailand research
the average selling price in the City area is the highest at more than tHB launched in Q1 2011. the average selling price in the northern Fringe
95,000 per sq m, however this is nearly 13% lower than the average and eastern Fringe areas are similar due to the land price and the similar
selling price in 2010. this was due to less prestigious projects being mass transit system provided in the area.
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | P. 5
6. Bangkok Condominium market rePort | Q1 2011
mASS TRAnSIT effeCT
TAKe-up RATe of newly lAunCHed pRojeCTS by pRoxImITy To exISTIng mASS TRAnSIT
lIneS, Q1 2011
Source: Colliers international thailand research
the take-up rate of projects more than 1,000 metres from the BtS / because although the projects are close to the BtS / mrt lines, the
mrt systems was the highest, at around 50%. Projects less than 200 selling price was often higher than other areas.
metres from the mass transit system had the lowest take-up rate,
AveRAge SellIng pRICeS of newly lAunCHed pRojeCTS by pRoxImITy To exISTIng mASS
TRAnSIT lIneS, Q1 2011
Source: Colliers international thailand research
the average selling price of projects not more than 200 metres from take-up rate.
BtS / mrt lines was higher by 55% - 134%, which directly affected
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | P. 6
7. Bangkok Condominium market rePort | Q1 2011
fInAnCIng
HouSIng loAnS foR peRSonAl ConSumpTIon exTended by fInAnCIAl InSTITuTIonS
Source: Bank of thailand and Colliers international thailand research
note: excludes negligible amounts of financing from other sources. Percentage change is comparable quarter-on-quarter.
the growth rate of housing loans increased more than 3% in Q3 2009 housing loans in that period compared to other periods. the amount of
– Q1 2010 because the government’s incentives attracted buyers to loans in 4Q 2010 increased more than 2%, due to the new loan-to-value
purchase and transfer by the second quarter of 2010. this boosted limits from the Bank of thailand that took effect on January 1, 2011.
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | P. 7
8. Bangkok Condominium market rePort | Q1 2011
SwoT AnAlySIS
STRengTHS Bangkok is the capital city of thailand and a centre of work and education,
so many people from other parts of thailand move to live in Bangkok.
the market is dominated by large, listed developers with a strong
First time buyers still remain a potent force in the market especially in
reputation and a focus on the bottom line. this means greater economies
the lower end of the market.
of scale, improved financing options and projects that are relevant to
market conditions. However smaller players can still successfully enter
demographics also point to a growing number of plus 50-year-old
the market and add a certain innovation and creativity to the mix.
buyers who may be seeking to upgrade to better quality units in good
locations due to increased spending power and extra capital from
Highly popular condominium and housing exhibitions as well as frequent
inheritance.
coverage on the housing market from the press help to keep the topic in
the front of potential buyers’ minds and help stimulate further demand.
in the longer term, the integration of aSean over the decade could lead
to more wealthy individuals from those countries purchasing higher end
developers are targeting different income segments and demographics
units in Bangkok where they are likely to operate from. this could
with increasingly sophisticated branding which enlivens the buying
generate demand in the latter half of the 2010’s. Further interest could
experience. greater efforts have been made in producing quality
be seen from personal investors from india and China.
showrooms that provide buyers with a better insight into the products
they are interested in buying.
THReATS
weAKneSSeS the earthquake in myanmar in march 2011 was not far from the northern
border of thailand and it affected some high-rise buildings in Bangkok.
Some condominium projects in Bangkok were starting to be sold prior to
the day after the disaster, many people were worried about the security
eia (environmental impact assessment) approval, therefore many
of high-rise buildings in Bangkok and this directly affected the confidence
projects are forced to change the design and floor plan, reduce the
of people interested to buy a condominium unit. although many
number of floors or units in order to comply or even be cancelled
developers announced that their own projects were safe, some buyers
altogether, although they may have sold out already. eia approval is one
still postponed their decision. although some form of earthquake
of the main concerns for buyers and many developers are now advertising
protection has been included in construction permits for the past few
eia approval in their signage and advertising literature.
years, no exact criteria has been established and it is unknown to what
extent building can withstand a magnitude 5.0 earthquake measurement
oppoRTunITIeS of intensity. However, Bangkok is not located on an earthquake prone
the condominium market in Bangkok has room to grow, especially along area and are currently built to withstand wind force.
the new BtS extension lines that are not too far from the city. eventually
the further the lines are from the city the more likely landed property will Commodity prices are causing inflation to creep up and along with
be the mainstay of new residential developments due to cheaper land economic growth, further pressures to raise interest rates could cool the
prices. market even more further into the future.
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | P. 8
10. Bangkok Condominium market rePort | Q1 2011
ZonIng
HISToRICAl Supply by yeAR
CumulATIve Supply In bAngKoK
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | P. 10
11. Bangkok Condominium market rePort | Q1 2011
• CITY AREA this area covers locations with their own local infrastructure and
convenient transportation. However, commuting is required to have
the area covers four adjacent but competing sub-markets: the Sukhumvit
access to the central business and entertainment areas.
section comprising Sukhumvit road between Soi 1 and Soi 55 to the
north and Soi 2 and Soi 38 to the south; the Central Lumpini section
including Phloen Chit road, rama i road, Soi Langsuan, Soi Sarasin, • OUTER CITY AREA
Chitlom road, ratchadamri road, Witthayu road and rachaprasong the area covers two parts of Bangkok:
road; the Silom / Sathorn section; and the riverside section fronting the
Chao Phraya river along Charoenkrung road and Charoennakorn road, outer City (east):
where several five-star hotels are located. the City area is convenient
this section starts from the extension of the BtS route at on nut Station
for businessmen, expatriates and tourists, because of its proximity to
to the Bangkok boundary to the east.
many office buildings, retailing and local attractions.
outer City (west):
• CITY FRINGE AREA
this section starts from the extension of the BtS route at taksin Station
this area covers three parts of Bangkok:
to Bang Wa station, which includes the area from krung thonburi road
to ratchaphruek road near Petchakasem intersection.
northern fringe:
this section covers the BtS route starting from ratchathewi Station to
mo Chit Station to the north and the mrt route starting from Petchaburi • SUBURBAN BANGKOK
station to Bangsue station to the north.
these are the environs outside the areas already mentioned. expansion
of the mass transit system is the main determinant for increasing future
Southern fringe:
supply in a particular area. the expansion from on nut to Samut Prakarn
this section covers narathiwad ratchanakarin road, Chan road, is scheduled to be completed in 2011. the expansion of the BtS will
Sathupradit road, Charoenkrung road and rama iii road along the Chao benefit directly the surrounding condominiums, as it will considerably
Phraya river. reduce transportation costs and time. this will encourage the development
of new condominiums in this area. Suburban Bangkok represents the
eastern fringe: biggest area and for the purposes of this report and includes Bangkok
city’s old town (koh rattanakosin area and boundary area). this location
this section covers the BtS route starting from thong Lor Station to on
has comprehensive town planning controls restricting building height, so
nut Station to the east, rama iV road and Petchaburi road,
there are no condominium projects in the area.
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | P. 11
12. Bangkok Condominium market rePort | Q1 2011
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