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Similar a Predição espacial do ácaro vermelho-das-palmeiras no brasil sob cenários atual e futuros de mudanças climáticas
Similar a Predição espacial do ácaro vermelho-das-palmeiras no brasil sob cenários atual e futuros de mudanças climáticas (19)
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Predição espacial do ácaro vermelho-das-palmeiras no brasil sob cenários atual e futuros de mudanças climáticas
- 1. Spatial forecasting of red palm mite in Brazil under current and future climate change scenarios Denise Navia, Emília Hamada, Manoel Guedes Correa Gondim Jr. & Norton Polo Benito Predição espacial do ácaro vermelho das palmeiras no Brasil sob‑ ‑ ‑ cenários atual e futuros de mudanças climáticas
- 2. Mudanç as Climáticas Espé cies Invasoras & entre os quatro principais “propulsores” (drivers) para as mudanças globais e para a perda da biodiversidade ambos, isoladamente .... podem afetar a produção, levando à redução das colheitas e à provisão de serviços ecossistêmicos grande preocupação para a segurança alimentar !!!! O que ocorre quando estes dois fatores interagem ???
- 3. Mudanças Climáticas podem agravar o impacto causado pelas Espécies Invasoras Exóticas em Agroecossistemas e em Ambientes Naturais!!! número de invasores & severidade dos danos....
- 4. Five Potential Consequences of Climate Change for Invasive Species mecanismos de introdução e transporte alterados alteração na distribuição de espécies invasoras presentes estabelecimento de novas espécies invasoras alteração no impacto de espécies invasoras presentes alteração na eficiência de estratégias de controle Hellman et al. 2008
- 5. O ácaro vermelho das palmeiras, Raoiella indica Hirst, praga invasora nas Américas - Histórico
- 8. O ácaro vermelho das palmeiras no Brasil Julho 2009. Boa Vista, Roraima Roraima 2010/2011 Manaus, Amazonas Agosto 2011
- 9. Objetivos predizer a distribuição espacial do ácaro vermelho das palmeiras no Brasil nos cenários atual e futuros de mudanças climáticas Objetivo geral Objetivo específico prover informações sobre as áreas de maior risco fitossanitário para uma “praga quarentenária presente” no Brasil, no presente e no futuro, visando orientar a adoção de medidas de prevenção e definição de estratégias de controle; minimizar o impacto da praga invasora nos agroecossistemas e áreas naturais no país.
- 10. M & M definição de faixas de favorabilidade de temperatura e UR para a praga a partir de dados de biologia e estudos de dinâmica populacional da praga organização de dados climatológicos no presente e em cenários futuros para o Brasil •normais climatológicas (1961-1990) – Climate Research Unit •médias mensais de temperatura e UR IPCC– Data Distribution Centre of the Intergovernamental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) •modelos B1 e A2 (menor e maior emissão de gases do efeito estufa, respectivamente), para os períodos de 2011-2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2100 –(IPCC, 2015) construção de mapas de distribuição geográfica da favorabilidade para o estabelecimento da praga
- 11. M & M
- 12. Resultados & Discussão apontadas as áreas com condições favoráveis ao estabelecimento de populações do ácaro vermelho das palmeiras – a cada mês – predição de dinâmica populacional por todo o país principais Região produtora de coco – Nordeste (80com extensas áreas muito favoráveis ao ácaro vermelho das palmeiras redução de áreas desfavoráveis à praga nos cenários futuros de mudanças climáticas áreas pouco favoráveis ou favoráveis passam a ser muito favoráveis
- 13. Resultados & Discussão Figure 1. Maps of favorability for the red palm mite Raoiella indica in Brazil, from January to April, for the climatological normal from 1961–1990 and future climates (2020, 2050, and 2080) in scenarios A2 and B1.
- 14. Figure 2. Maps of favorability for the red palm mite Raoiella indica in Brazil, from May to August, for the climatological normal from 1961–1990 and future climates (2020, 2050, and 2080) in scenarios A2 and B1.
- 15. Figure 3. Maps of favorability for the red palm mite Raoiella indica in Brazil, from September to December, for the climatological normal from 1961–1990 and future climates (2020, 2050, and 2080) in scenarios A2 and B1.
- 16. Figure 4. Graphs showing variations in the favorability levels for the red palm mite Raoiella indica in Brazil along the year for the climatological normal from 1961– 1990 and future climates (2020, 2050, and 2080) in scenarios A2 and B1.
- 17. Análise Crítica - Validação da Predição ! 2016 Maio 2015, Dracena, oeste de São Paulo Setembro 2015, Londrina, Maringá, Marialva, Sarandi, norte do Paraná
- 18. Análise Crítica - Validação da Predição !
- 19. Perspectivas refinamento das análises a partir de dados biológicos mais detalhados – temperatura ótima, máxima, mínima para os diversos estágios de desenvolvimento da praga validação da metodologia no cenário climático atual aplicação para outras pragas quarentenárias presentes ou ausentes mapas de favorabilidade de estabelecimento podem ser utilizados como subsídio para: • Análise de Risco de Pragas • estudos de impacto econômico potencial • priorização de áreas foco para o desenvolvimento de estratégias de controle
Notas del editor
- Individually Invasive pests and climate change represent great threats to biodiversity and to global food security. Climate change can have several consequences on the spread and distribution of invasive pests. Invasive species and climate change separately present two of the greatest threats to biodiversity and the provision of valuable ecosystem services; both can seriously affect global food security (Burgiel & Muir, 2010; Wheeler & von Braun, 2013). Invasive pests are arguably the largest impediment to agricultural productivity (Burgiel & Muir, 2010). The overall effects of climate change on agriculture are expected to be severely negative (Nelson et al., 2009). The complexity of the interaction between these two global drivers has increased and the evidence is rapidly growing on how climate change is compounding the devastating effects of invasive species (Burgiel & Muir, 2010). Whether a newly introduced species becomes invasive or not depends on the biological and physical characteristics of the habitat where it was introduced, which are greatly influenced by climate (Ziska et al., 2011). Recent evaluations by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change indicate that the rise of CO2 and associated greenhouse gases could lead to a increase in global surface temperatures as well as to changes on precipitation frequency and amounts (IPCC, 2001). Potential consequences of climate change for invasive species are establishment of new invasive species; altered mechanisms of transport and introduction, of effectiveness of control strategies, and of distributions (Hellman et al., 2008). Climate change impacts are likely to increase opportunities for invasive species because of their typically high tolerance to extreme conditions and adaptability to disturbance (Burgiel & Muir, 2010). Each species and environment presents its own particularities that need to be individually analyzed.
- interacton complex, of concern... cc can increase problems with invasive pests... impact can be more severe, increase in number and extension Invasive pests and climate change represent great threats to biodiversity and to global food security. Climate change can have several consequences on the spread and distribution of invasive pests. Invasive species and climate change separately present two of the greatest threats to biodiversity and the provision of valuable ecosystem services; both can seriously affect global food security (Burgiel & Muir, 2010; Wheeler & von Braun, 2013). Invasive pests are arguably the largest impediment to agricultural productivity (Burgiel & Muir, 2010). The overall effects of climate change on agriculture are expected to be severely negative (Nelson et al., 2009). The complexity of the interaction between these two global drivers has increased and the evidence is rapidly growing on how climate change is compounding the devastating effects of invasive species (Burgiel & Muir, 2010). Whether a newly introduced species becomes invasive or not depends on the biological and physical characteristics of the habitat where it was introduced, which are greatly influenced by climate (Ziska et al., 2011). Recent evaluations by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change indicate that the rise of CO2 and associated greenhouse gases could lead to a increase in global surface temperatures as well as to changes on precipitation frequency and amounts (IPCC, 2001). Potential consequences of climate change for invasive species are establishment of new invasive species; altered mechanisms of transport and introduction, of effectiveness of control strategies, and of distributions (Hellman et al., 2008). Climate change impacts are likely to increase opportunities for invasive species because of their typically high tolerance to extreme conditions and adaptability to disturbance (Burgiel & Muir, 2010). Each species and environment presents its own particularities that need to be individually analyzed.
- we should concern about mites
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- Whether a newly‑introduced species becomes invasive or not depends on the biological and physical characteristics of the habitat where it was introduced, which are greatly influenced by climate (Ziska et al., 2011). Evaluations by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2015) indicate that the rise of CO2 and of associated greenhouse gases could lead to an increase in global surface temperatures, as well as to changes on precipitation frequency and intensity (Houghton et al., 2001). Information about the highest risk areas in the present and in the future are fundamental for the definition of prevention or control strategies to minimize the impact of this pest in the country. Amaro
- Whether a newly‑introduced species becomes invasive or not depends on the biological and physical characteristics of the habitat where it was introduced, which are greatly influenced by climate (Ziska et al., 2011). Evaluations by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2015) indicate that the rise of CO2 and of associated greenhouse gases could lead to an increase in global surface temperatures, as well as to changes on precipitation frequency and intensity (Houghton et al., 2001). Information about the highest risk areas in the present and in the future are fundamental for the definition of prevention or control strategies to minimize the impact of this pest in the country. Amaro
- Whether a newly‑introduced species becomes invasive or not depends on the biological and physical characteristics of the habitat where it was introduced, which are greatly influenced by climate (Ziska et al., 2011). Evaluations by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2015) indicate that the rise of CO2 and of associated greenhouse gases could lead to an increase in global surface temperatures, as well as to changes on precipitation frequency and intensity (Houghton et al., 2001). Information about the highest risk areas in the present and in the future are fundamental for the definition of prevention or control strategies to minimize the impact of this pest in the country. Amaro
- Whether a newly‑introduced species becomes invasive or not depends on the biological and physical characteristics of the habitat where it was introduced, which are greatly influenced by climate (Ziska et al., 2011). Evaluations by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2015) indicate that the rise of CO2 and of associated greenhouse gases could lead to an increase in global surface temperatures, as well as to changes on precipitation frequency and intensity (Houghton et al., 2001). Information about the highest risk areas in the present and in the future are fundamental for the definition of prevention or control strategies to minimize the impact of this pest in the country. Amaro
- Whether a newly‑introduced species becomes invasive or not depends on the biological and physical characteristics of the habitat where it was introduced, which are greatly influenced by climate (Ziska et al., 2011). Evaluations by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2015) indicate that the rise of CO2 and of associated greenhouse gases could lead to an increase in global surface temperatures, as well as to changes on precipitation frequency and intensity (Houghton et al., 2001). Information about the highest risk areas in the present and in the future are fundamental for the definition of prevention or control strategies to minimize the impact of this pest in the country. Amaro
- Whether a newly‑introduced species becomes invasive or not depends on the biological and physical characteristics of the habitat where it was introduced, which are greatly influenced by climate (Ziska et al., 2011). Evaluations by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2015) indicate that the rise of CO2 and of associated greenhouse gases could lead to an increase in global surface temperatures, as well as to changes on precipitation frequency and intensity (Houghton et al., 2001). Information about the highest risk areas in the present and in the future are fundamental for the definition of prevention or control strategies to minimize the impact of this pest in the country. Amaro
- Whether a newly‑introduced species becomes invasive or not depends on the biological and physical characteristics of the habitat where it was introduced, which are greatly influenced by climate (Ziska et al., 2011). Evaluations by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2015) indicate that the rise of CO2 and of associated greenhouse gases could lead to an increase in global surface temperatures, as well as to changes on precipitation frequency and intensity (Houghton et al., 2001). Information about the highest risk areas in the present and in the future are fundamental for the definition of prevention or control strategies to minimize the impact of this pest in the country. Amaro