CTP’s Threat Update series is a weekly update and assessment of the al Qaeda network and its affiliates in Yemen, the Horn of Africa, and the Maghreb and Sahel.

1. 1
Threat Update: December 5, 2017
For a closer look at Yemen this week, view the full Threat Update.
Yemen The death of former Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh will benefit U.S.
adversaries in Yemen. Al Houthi forces killed Saleh after three days of
intense fighting with Saleh loyalists in Yemen’s capital, Sana’a. The al
Houthi movement will likely move further into Iran’s orbit following
Saleh’s death. Al Qaeda will also benefit as instability from the
subsequent power struggle reverberates throughout Yemen.
Al Qaeda Network Al Qaeda emir Ayman al Zawahiri seeks to bring Syrian groups back
under al Qaeda’s influence, rejecting a July 2016 split by al Qaeda’s
Syrian affiliate and calling for unity. Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS), the
successor of Syrian al Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al Nusra, arrested four pro-
al Qaeda officials who criticized its 2016 split from al Qaeda. The arrests
opened a public rift within HTS’s senior ranks, highlighting its members’
divided loyalties.

2. 2
Threat Update: December 5, 2017
Al Shabaab is attempting to disrupt troop movements and trade
between Somali Federal Government (SFG)-controlled ports in southern
Somalia. Al Shabaab militants attacked Ugandan African Union Mission
in Somalia (AMISOM) and Somali patrols in Lower Shabelle region six
times in the past twelve days. The campaign may also be intended to
deter Uganda from deploying additional troops to Somalia. Al
Shabaab may sever SFG lines of communication if AMISOM forces
begin to withdraw as scheduled by December 31, 2017.
Somalia
Libya
Libyan factions are preparing to jockey for power after December 17,
when the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) reaches the
end of its official term. GNA officials secured reassurances from the
U.S. government in a bid to preserve their faltering legitimacy. A rival
political-military bloc in eastern Libya will likely press its advantage to cut
a favorable deal with the GNA but could also mount a direct challenge to
the GNA’s authority.

3. Yemen
3Randy Morton
Al Houthi forces kill former president Ali
Abdullah Saleh after partnership collapses
28 NOV: Saleh called on
“decision makers” to stop firing
ballistic missiles at Saudi
Arabia.
.
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02 DEC: Saleh called for a “new
page” with the Saudi-led coalition
and for Yemenis to mobilize against
the al Houthi movement.
02 DEC: The Saudi-led coalition and
internationally recognized Yemeni
government welcomed Saleh’s
statement and pledged to support
him.
5
29 NOV: Al Houthi forces
attacked pro-Saleh forces in
Sana’a at the Saleh Mosque.
3
28 NOV: Al Houthi movement
leader Abdul Malik al Houthi
accused Saleh of ignoring
Yemen’s problems.
42
04 DEC: Al Houthi forces killed
Saleh on the outskirts of Sana’a city
as he fled the capital.
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4. Al Qaeda
Network
4Colin Neafsey
Al Qaeda discredits Hayat Tahrir al Sham to
pressure for reconciliation
27 NOV: HTS confirmed the arrests of shari’a
official Dr. Sami al Oraidi and three other officials
that support reconciliation between HTS and al
Qaeda.
28 NOV: Al Qaeda emir Ayman
al Zawahiri publicly rejected
Jabhat al Nusra’s split from al
Qaeda as a violation of bayat.
28 NOV: A group of HTS military and
shari’a officials condemned the arrests and
threatened to resign from HTS if the
officials are not released.
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1

5. Libya
5Emily Estelle
Libyan elites prepare to grab power in
upcoming legitimacy crisis and elections
01 DEC: U.S. President
Donald Trump voiced
support for the GNA after
meeting with Prime Minister
Fayez al Serraj.
28 NOV: LNA
spokesman BG Ahmed
al Mismari stated that
the army will resolve the
Libyan crisis if no
agreement is reached
within six months.
03 DEC: LNA commander
Khalifa Haftar and HoR
Speaker Ageela Salah held
meetings in Cairo.
29 NOV: Saif al Islam, the son
of deceased Libyan dictator
Muammar Qaddafi, made his
first public statement in seven
years in a preliminary bid to
rehabilitate his image.
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4
3
2

6. Horn of
Africa
6Matthew Cassidy
Al Shabaab disrupts troop movements in
Lower Shabelle
3
1 2
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1. 22 NOV: Al Shabaab
detonated an IED targeting
a Ugandan AMISOM convoy
near Bulo Marer.
2. 23 NOV: Al Shabaab
ambushed Ugandan
AMISOM forces in Golweyn.
3. 24 NOV: Al Shabaab
detonated an IED targeting
Ugandan AMISOM forces
near Marka.
4. 26 NOV: Al Shabaab
killed a SNA soldier in
Qoryoley.
5. 28 NOV: Al Shabaab
ambushed a Ugandan
AMISOM patrol in Qoryoley.
6. 04 DEC: Al Shabaab
attacked a Ugandan
AMISOM base in Mashalay.
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7. Acronym List
AMISOM: African Union Mission in Somalia
AQAP: al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula
AQIM: al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb
AQIS: al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent
BDB: Benghazi Defense Brigades
BRSC: Benghazi Revolutionaries Shura Council
CJA: Congress for Justice in Azawad
CMA: Coordination for the Movement of the Azawad
GATIA: Imghad Tuareg and Allies Self-Defense Group
ISIS: Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham
JNIM: Jama’a Nusrat al Islam wa al Muslimeen
GNA: Libyan Government of National Accord
LNA: Libyan National Army
MAA: Arab Movement of Azawad
MINUSMA: United National Multidimensional
Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali
MNLA: National Movement for the Liberation of the
Azawad
MSCD: Mujahideen Shura Council in Derna
MUJAO: The Movement for Unity and Jihad in West
Africa
SNA: Somalia National Army
TTP: Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan
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8. For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project, visit www.criticalthreats.org.
Contact us at criticalthreats@aei.org or (202) 888-6575.
Frederick W. Kagan
Director
Critical Threats Project Team
Katherine Zimmerman
Research Manager
Caroline Goodson
Program Assistant
al Qaeda Analysts
Emily Estelle
Maher Farrukh
Iran Analysts
Marie Donovan
Mike Saidi
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