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GLOBAL
INVESTMENT
ATLAS 2018
PREVIEW
1INVESTMENT ATLAS 2018
Global real estate performed
exceptionally well in 2017 with
volumes up sharply and values
ahead. Yields compressed 12
basis points on average, while
prime rents rose +1.7% and
investment volumes jumped
+13.2% in USD terms, ahead
of even our own above
consensus forecast.
THE MARKET
AHEAD
6.0%
6.2%
6.4%
6.6%
6.8%
7.0%
7.2%
7.4%
7.6%
7.8%
8.0%
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
Figure 1 – Global Investment Volumes by Region
Source: Cushman & Wakefield, RCA
USDBillions
PrimeYield(AllSectors)
EMEA Americas APAC Prime Yield
The balance of supply and demand
point to a further healthy year in
2018. While availability of stock is
low, we forecast a small gain in
global volumes due to development,
an increase in profit taking, and a
release of stock via corporate activity.
INVESTMENT ATLAS 2018 2
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
FOR 2018
TECH IMPACT
genomics, machine learning,
cybersecurity, IOT, renewables
and big data
Will benefit tech hubs, may hit
‘commodity’ CRE markets –
eg those that can only compete
on cost
INVESTMENT ATLAS 2018 3
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
FOR 2018
SHARING ECONOMY
shared spaces are here to stay
and are set to grow more global
and more branded
Investors will want to leverage their
spaces to benefit from this trend,
while also investing in operating
platforms to access the added value
4INVESTMENT ATLAS 2018
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
FOR 2018
Prime real estate in global cities is
likely to prevail – location matters
as much as ever in the internet age
More specialised and affordable
tier 2 cities will also be in demand
5INVESTMENT ATLAS 2018
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
FOR 2018
LEVERAGE CITY SUCCESS
the growth a city creates won’t
only be felt in the CBD, the wider
catchment and suburban market
will benefit too
6INVESTMENT ATLAS 2018
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
FOR 2018
Emerging markets are set to gain
interest – conditions remain varied
so discretion is warranted!
Gateway cities in these less mature
countries are recommended
7INVESTMENT ATLAS 2018
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
FOR 2018
New segments and styles of
investing in all regions as portfolios
become more diversified
‘ALTERNATIVE’ sectors
are now mainstream.
8INVESTMENT ATLAS 2018
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
FOR 2018
2017 marked the highest level of real estate
investment on record, surpassing the previous
record in 2015 by upwards of 12%, setting
a new benchmark for global volumes
Prime yields fell globally, and ended
the year 71bps below 2007’s low point
9INVESTMENT ATLAS 2018
Buyer composition was similar
to previous years – private
investors represent 35% of
global volumes while institutional
and cross border investors each
constituted c.21%.
THE
INVESTORS
$-
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
APAC Europe North America MEA Latin America
USDBillions
Figure 3 – Sources of international Capital
Source: Cushman & Wakefield, RCA. Note rent and yield excluding multifamily
Continental Global
Asian investors claimed 52% of the
global market, the highest share for
any one region on record.
10INVESTMENT ATLAS 2018
The global backdrop largely
surprised to the upside in 2017
with investors choosing to
expand into new horizons as
a consequence.
TARGETS FOR
INVESTMENT
$-
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
APAC Europe North America MEA Latin America
USDBillions
Figure 4 – Targets of International Capital
Source: Cushman & Wakefield, RCA
Continental Global Domestic
Primary targets of international
capital remained largely the same,
with the US retaining the top spot.
London remained the most sought-
after city, benefitting from a fall
in Sterling.
11INVESTMENT ATLAS 2018
Market preference for
development sites – 42% market
share (+7.7% up on 2016), with
capital originating primarily from
Asian sources.
SECTOR
TRENDS
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Multifamily Development
Sites
Hotel Industrial Office Retail
Figure 6 – Sector Share of Global Trading
Source: Cushman & Wakefield, RCA
2014 2014 2015 2016 2017
Industrial grew by 29.5%, as investors
were drawn to the segment’s attractive
pricing and growth potential linked to
e-commerce and supply chain
disruption.
INVESTMENT ATLAS 2018
CROSS BORDER
INVESTMENT FLOWS
2017
12
INVESTMENT ATLAS 2018 13
ALTERNATIVES
ARE MAINSTREAM
Alternative segments saw a mixed performance
in the past 1-2 years, largely reflecting a shortage
of suitable supply: underlining the long term
potential of these markets
Both higher yields and the opportunity to
diversify through exposure to new growth
drivers will increase the attractiveness of
these segments
14INVESTMENT ATLAS 2018
ALTERNATIVES
ARE MAINSTREAM
Exposure
to Economic
Growth
Exposure
to Inflation
Resilience
to Economic
Volatility
Demographics
& Urbanisation
Government
Influence &
Regulations
Technology
and Mobility
Changing
Lifestyles
Student
Housing
(PBSA)
Private
Rented
Sector (PRS)
Senior
Housing and
Healthcare
Hotels
Data
Centres
Car parks
Self-
storage
Table 1 – Drivers of Performance in 2018/19
Source: Cushman & Wakefield, RCA Very Strong Strong Average Limited Variable
15INVESTMENT ATLAS 2018
Asia Pacific experienced the
biggest inward investment
volume growth globally in 2017,
rising by +31.1%.
REGIONAL TRENDS
– ASIA PACIFIC
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
7.5%
$-
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
PrimeYield
USDBillions
Figure 8 – APAC Investment Volumes
Source: Cushman & Wakefield, RCA
Investment Volume Yield (excl. multifamily)
New development will provide
opportunities in 2018, and reforms
and demographic change will prompt
stronger underlying growth, so
increasing investors focus on
the region.
16INVESTMENT ATLAS 2018
Cross border investment in
EMEA grew +7.5%, to represent
51.0% of the market.
REGIONAL TRENDS
– EMEA
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
7.5%
8.0%
$-
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
PrimeYield
USDBillions
Investment Volume Yield (excl. multifamily)
Figure 9 – EMEA Investment Volumes
Source: Cushman & Wakefield, RCA
Although Asian capital into EMEA
grew by +95.0% on the year, North
American investors were the
strongest global players in the
region overall.
The UK was the most targeted
market, with overall volumes closing
the year +3.9% above those
in Germany.
17INVESTMENT ATLAS 2018
Latin America came out of
recession, posting its strongest
economic figures in 3 years
as increases in commodity
prices improved activity
and confidence.
REGIONAL TRENDS
– LATIN AMERICA
9.0%
9.5%
10.0%
10.5%
11.0%
11.5%
$-
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
PrimeYield
USDBillions
Figure 10 – Latin America Investment Volumes
Source: Cushman & Wakefield, RCA
Investment Volume Yield (excl. multifamily)
Potential in the region is rising once
more as a result, and nowhere more
so perhaps than Brazil.
18INVESTMENT ATLAS 2018
Despite the outperformance
of the US economy last year,
US investment activity fell
by -6.9% y/y.
REGIONAL TRENDS
– NORTH AMERICA
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
7.5%
8.0%
$-
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
PrimeYield
USDBillions
Investment Volume Yield (excl. multifamily)
Figure 11 – North America Investment Volumes
Source: Cushman & Wakefield, RCA
Canadian markets meanwhile grew
at their strongest rate in five years at
+12.0% and demand is set to remain
hot in 2018.
The US meanwhile is shifting into a
higher gear and this bodes well for its
property markets in 2018/19.
However, the market is as ever very
nuanced, and trends differ by sector
and submarket.
19INVESTMENT ATLAS 2018
2018 is interestingly poised,
with real momentum in the
economy on one hand but
a shifting monetary cycle
combined with ongoing
geopolitical risk on the other.
OUTLOOK
& STRATEGY
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
Asia Pacific Africa Middle East North
America
Western
Europe
Eastern
Europe
Latin
America
Figure 12 – Economic Growth & Expectations
Source: Cushman & Wakefield, Oxford Economics
2017 2018 2019
How investors react to this will
shape the direction of supply and
demand for the year ahead.
20INVESTMENT ATLAS 2018
The most compelling reason
for investment in real estate
has become its exposure to
economic growth and as
a hedge against inflation.
OUTLOOK
& STRATEGY
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
AnnualInvestmentVolumes(US$bn)
North America Latin America Asia Pacific EMEA
Figure 13 – Global Property Investment by Region
Source: Cushman & Wakefield, RCA
Indeed, while we forecast a modest
further compression in yields this
year, rental growth is set to take
over as the main driver of
performance globally for the first
time since 2014.
DOWNLOAD THE
FULL REPORT AT
cushwk.co/atlas

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Global Investment Atlas 2018

  • 2. 1INVESTMENT ATLAS 2018 Global real estate performed exceptionally well in 2017 with volumes up sharply and values ahead. Yields compressed 12 basis points on average, while prime rents rose +1.7% and investment volumes jumped +13.2% in USD terms, ahead of even our own above consensus forecast. THE MARKET AHEAD 6.0% 6.2% 6.4% 6.6% 6.8% 7.0% 7.2% 7.4% 7.6% 7.8% 8.0% 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 Figure 1 – Global Investment Volumes by Region Source: Cushman & Wakefield, RCA USDBillions PrimeYield(AllSectors) EMEA Americas APAC Prime Yield The balance of supply and demand point to a further healthy year in 2018. While availability of stock is low, we forecast a small gain in global volumes due to development, an increase in profit taking, and a release of stock via corporate activity.
  • 3. INVESTMENT ATLAS 2018 2 MARKET HIGHLIGHTS FOR 2018 TECH IMPACT genomics, machine learning, cybersecurity, IOT, renewables and big data Will benefit tech hubs, may hit ‘commodity’ CRE markets – eg those that can only compete on cost
  • 4. INVESTMENT ATLAS 2018 3 MARKET HIGHLIGHTS FOR 2018 SHARING ECONOMY shared spaces are here to stay and are set to grow more global and more branded Investors will want to leverage their spaces to benefit from this trend, while also investing in operating platforms to access the added value
  • 5. 4INVESTMENT ATLAS 2018 MARKET HIGHLIGHTS FOR 2018 Prime real estate in global cities is likely to prevail – location matters as much as ever in the internet age More specialised and affordable tier 2 cities will also be in demand
  • 6. 5INVESTMENT ATLAS 2018 MARKET HIGHLIGHTS FOR 2018 LEVERAGE CITY SUCCESS the growth a city creates won’t only be felt in the CBD, the wider catchment and suburban market will benefit too
  • 7. 6INVESTMENT ATLAS 2018 MARKET HIGHLIGHTS FOR 2018 Emerging markets are set to gain interest – conditions remain varied so discretion is warranted! Gateway cities in these less mature countries are recommended
  • 8. 7INVESTMENT ATLAS 2018 MARKET HIGHLIGHTS FOR 2018 New segments and styles of investing in all regions as portfolios become more diversified ‘ALTERNATIVE’ sectors are now mainstream.
  • 9. 8INVESTMENT ATLAS 2018 MARKET HIGHLIGHTS FOR 2018 2017 marked the highest level of real estate investment on record, surpassing the previous record in 2015 by upwards of 12%, setting a new benchmark for global volumes Prime yields fell globally, and ended the year 71bps below 2007’s low point
  • 10. 9INVESTMENT ATLAS 2018 Buyer composition was similar to previous years – private investors represent 35% of global volumes while institutional and cross border investors each constituted c.21%. THE INVESTORS $- $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 $180 APAC Europe North America MEA Latin America USDBillions Figure 3 – Sources of international Capital Source: Cushman & Wakefield, RCA. Note rent and yield excluding multifamily Continental Global Asian investors claimed 52% of the global market, the highest share for any one region on record.
  • 11. 10INVESTMENT ATLAS 2018 The global backdrop largely surprised to the upside in 2017 with investors choosing to expand into new horizons as a consequence. TARGETS FOR INVESTMENT $- $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800 $900 APAC Europe North America MEA Latin America USDBillions Figure 4 – Targets of International Capital Source: Cushman & Wakefield, RCA Continental Global Domestic Primary targets of international capital remained largely the same, with the US retaining the top spot. London remained the most sought- after city, benefitting from a fall in Sterling.
  • 12. 11INVESTMENT ATLAS 2018 Market preference for development sites – 42% market share (+7.7% up on 2016), with capital originating primarily from Asian sources. SECTOR TRENDS 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Multifamily Development Sites Hotel Industrial Office Retail Figure 6 – Sector Share of Global Trading Source: Cushman & Wakefield, RCA 2014 2014 2015 2016 2017 Industrial grew by 29.5%, as investors were drawn to the segment’s attractive pricing and growth potential linked to e-commerce and supply chain disruption.
  • 13. INVESTMENT ATLAS 2018 CROSS BORDER INVESTMENT FLOWS 2017 12
  • 14. INVESTMENT ATLAS 2018 13 ALTERNATIVES ARE MAINSTREAM Alternative segments saw a mixed performance in the past 1-2 years, largely reflecting a shortage of suitable supply: underlining the long term potential of these markets Both higher yields and the opportunity to diversify through exposure to new growth drivers will increase the attractiveness of these segments
  • 15. 14INVESTMENT ATLAS 2018 ALTERNATIVES ARE MAINSTREAM Exposure to Economic Growth Exposure to Inflation Resilience to Economic Volatility Demographics & Urbanisation Government Influence & Regulations Technology and Mobility Changing Lifestyles Student Housing (PBSA) Private Rented Sector (PRS) Senior Housing and Healthcare Hotels Data Centres Car parks Self- storage Table 1 – Drivers of Performance in 2018/19 Source: Cushman & Wakefield, RCA Very Strong Strong Average Limited Variable
  • 16. 15INVESTMENT ATLAS 2018 Asia Pacific experienced the biggest inward investment volume growth globally in 2017, rising by +31.1%. REGIONAL TRENDS – ASIA PACIFIC 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.5% 7.0% 7.5% $- $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 PrimeYield USDBillions Figure 8 – APAC Investment Volumes Source: Cushman & Wakefield, RCA Investment Volume Yield (excl. multifamily) New development will provide opportunities in 2018, and reforms and demographic change will prompt stronger underlying growth, so increasing investors focus on the region.
  • 17. 16INVESTMENT ATLAS 2018 Cross border investment in EMEA grew +7.5%, to represent 51.0% of the market. REGIONAL TRENDS – EMEA 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.5% 7.0% 7.5% 8.0% $- $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 PrimeYield USDBillions Investment Volume Yield (excl. multifamily) Figure 9 – EMEA Investment Volumes Source: Cushman & Wakefield, RCA Although Asian capital into EMEA grew by +95.0% on the year, North American investors were the strongest global players in the region overall. The UK was the most targeted market, with overall volumes closing the year +3.9% above those in Germany.
  • 18. 17INVESTMENT ATLAS 2018 Latin America came out of recession, posting its strongest economic figures in 3 years as increases in commodity prices improved activity and confidence. REGIONAL TRENDS – LATIN AMERICA 9.0% 9.5% 10.0% 10.5% 11.0% 11.5% $- $1 $2 $3 $4 $5 $6 PrimeYield USDBillions Figure 10 – Latin America Investment Volumes Source: Cushman & Wakefield, RCA Investment Volume Yield (excl. multifamily) Potential in the region is rising once more as a result, and nowhere more so perhaps than Brazil.
  • 19. 18INVESTMENT ATLAS 2018 Despite the outperformance of the US economy last year, US investment activity fell by -6.9% y/y. REGIONAL TRENDS – NORTH AMERICA 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.5% 7.0% 7.5% 8.0% $- $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 $180 PrimeYield USDBillions Investment Volume Yield (excl. multifamily) Figure 11 – North America Investment Volumes Source: Cushman & Wakefield, RCA Canadian markets meanwhile grew at their strongest rate in five years at +12.0% and demand is set to remain hot in 2018. The US meanwhile is shifting into a higher gear and this bodes well for its property markets in 2018/19. However, the market is as ever very nuanced, and trends differ by sector and submarket.
  • 20. 19INVESTMENT ATLAS 2018 2018 is interestingly poised, with real momentum in the economy on one hand but a shifting monetary cycle combined with ongoing geopolitical risk on the other. OUTLOOK & STRATEGY 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 Asia Pacific Africa Middle East North America Western Europe Eastern Europe Latin America Figure 12 – Economic Growth & Expectations Source: Cushman & Wakefield, Oxford Economics 2017 2018 2019 How investors react to this will shape the direction of supply and demand for the year ahead.
  • 21. 20INVESTMENT ATLAS 2018 The most compelling reason for investment in real estate has become its exposure to economic growth and as a hedge against inflation. OUTLOOK & STRATEGY 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 AnnualInvestmentVolumes(US$bn) North America Latin America Asia Pacific EMEA Figure 13 – Global Property Investment by Region Source: Cushman & Wakefield, RCA Indeed, while we forecast a modest further compression in yields this year, rental growth is set to take over as the main driver of performance globally for the first time since 2014.
  • 22. DOWNLOAD THE FULL REPORT AT cushwk.co/atlas