Case Study comparing Cycle methodology against traditional Buy+Hold strategy for common hedge Fund Investments. Shows cycle strategy with as much as 86% greater returns over set time periods

1. Case Study : Hedge Fund “Common Assets” Performance -
October 2015
Buy+Hold VS. FSC Cycle Based Methodology
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2. Stocks Reviewed:
AAPL Apple, Inc. BRKB, Berkshire Hathaway, B share
GE, General Electric GILD, Gilead Sciences, Inc.
GLD , SPDR Gold Trust Shares, ETF IWM, iShares Russell 2000 ETF
JNJ, Johnson & Johnson LQD, iShares IBoxx Investment Grade Corporate Bond Fund, ETF
MDT, Medtronic, Inc. MSFT, Microsoft Corp.
QQQ, PowerShares QQQ Trust, ETF SPY, SPDR S&P 500, ETF
USO, United States Oil Fund, LP VNQ, Vanguard REIT VIPERS, ETF
WFC, Wells Fargo & Co. XOM, Exxon Mobil Corp.
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3. Case Study : Buy + Hold comparison to cycle based Buy + Sell strategy
HEDGE FUND SAMPLE PORTFOLIO
Portfolio Illustration
This HEDGE FUND SAMPLE Portfolio assumes holdings of AAPL, BRKB, GE, GILD, GLD , IWM, JNJ, LQD, MDT, MSFT, QQQ,
SPY, USO, VNQ, WFC, & XOM, took a selected cycle from that asset and implemented if for 3 time periods.
The first time frame, Period A was +/- January 1, 2013 through +/- January 1, 2015.
The second time frame, Period B was +/- January 1, 2015 through +/- July 31, 2015.
During this period the optimal cycle from Period A was used without prices, which were added at the end of Period B.
The Period C was +/- January 1, 2013 through July 31, 2015 and the optimal cycle from Period A was used to document the Period C
performance.
The historical prices were used to determine an optimal cycle for using long and short positions concurrent upon previous trade exit.
The price is shown for Buy & Hold, Buy & Sell, and Buy only where instead of shorting after the Buy trade was exited the accumulated
investment was held in cash.
This hypothetical made no accommodations for trade costs, and prices of each asset were adjusted for dividends and interest.
This was assembled based on the Largest Holdings shown as a common investment among the worlds majority of active hedge funds –
You may or may not have investments in some or all of the examples used.
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4. The stocks used were, AAPL, VNQ, GLD ETC.,
As an example;
Period A $SPX was up 44.36% Florida Hedge Fund Sample stocks +50.61% Cycles Buy only +61.22% Cycles B&S +73.76%
Period B $SPX was up 2.18% Florida Hedge Fund Sample stocks +3.36% Cycles Buy only +4.61% Cycles B&S +5.15%
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5. Period A Capital Buy & Hold % FSC Cycle Buy & Sell% FSC Cycle Buy Only% FSC Cycle Sell Only%
1/2/2013-1/2/2015 $160,000.00 $233,407.89 $274,374.82 $248,792.32 $175,596.60
45.88% 71.48% 55.50% 9.75%
Period B Capital Buy & Hold % FSC Cycle Buy & Sell% FSC Cycle Buy Only% FSC Cycle Sell Only%
1/2/2015-7/31/2015 $ 160,000.00 $161,258.37 $171,660.03 $167,106.64 $165,673.46
0.79% 7.29% 4.44% 3.55%
Period C Capital Buy & Hold % FSC Cycle Buy & Sell% FSC Cycle Buy Only% FSC Cycle Sell Only%
1/2/2013-7/31/2015 $160,000.00 $236,902.60 $291,167.16 $261,359.01 $183,333.36
48.06% 81.98% 63.35% 14.58%
Buy & Hold % FSC Cycle Buy & Sell% FSC Cycle Buy Only% FSC Cycle Sell Only%
1/1/2013 $ 160,000 $ 160,000 $ 160,000 $ 160,000 Net gain
7/31/2015 $ 236,903 $ 291,167 $ 261,359 $ 183,333 22.91%
Terrance O'Neil, Director of Private Services at the Foundation for the Study of Cycles t.oneil@cycles.cc
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6. Contact The Foundation for the Study of Cycles
David Perales, CEO
Phone: 505-814-6911
Email: Admin@cycles.cc
Mailing Address:
2001 E Tahquitz Canyon Way Palm Springs CA 92362
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