Using Records to Troubleshoot Transition Cow Performance
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This material was presented by Dr. Greg Bethard for DAIReXNET's November 19th webinar entitled "Diagnosing Problems in Nutrition Programs Through Records".
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Using Records to Troubleshoot Transition Cow Performance
- 1. Using Records to Troubleshoot Transition Cow Performance Greg Bethard, Ph.D. G&R Dairy Consulting, Inc. DRMS Blacksburg, VA greg.bethard@gmail.com
- 2. Concepts • Benchmarking is a bad idea – Goal Setting and tracking makes a lot of sense • Pay attention to what is being measured and how it is measured • Economics trumps Biology
- 3. What is Transition Success? • Healthy Transition • Cows ready to get pregnant • Good start to lactation
- 4. What Are the Questions? • Important to formulate questions appropriate for the dairy • Strive to develop monitoring systems to answer questions quickly • Can’t afford to dig a hole it takes months to dig out of
- 5. Parity Differences • Must consider Lact=1 and Lact>1 separately in all transition metrics. • Issues are different, physiology is different, solutions are different.
- 6. Watch-outs • Repeats? – Activity Intervals in PCDART – Event Gaps in Dairy Comp • Too few cows • Ignoring Failures • Inconsistent diagnosis of disease
- 7. Watch-outs • Inaccurate milk weights (Test Day or parlor meter errors) • Dairy Culls • Misleading metrics
- 8. Misleading metrics • Peak Milk – Lagging, too much momentum, ignores failures, vague, imprecise • 1st Test Day Milk – Range error, Average error • Conception Rates • Fat test as proxy for health
- 9. Misleading metrics • Metrics with Variation – Too few cows… • Metrics with Bias – Ignoring animals…conception rate • Metrics with Momentum – Too much time.. • Metrics with Lag – Too long to measure..
- 10. Variation • One number can greatly distort the results • Small herds are a big problem • Example: DA Rate – 10 cows calved in Jan – No DA’s (0%) – If 1 DA, increases to 10% • Solution: Add more time (calvings) to calculation
- 11. Transition Numbers with Variation… • Crude Rule of Thumb: Any number with <50 observations
- 12. Momentum • When too much time goes into the calculation, changes are difficult to detect, or take too long to detect. • Large changes can have a small impact on parameter
- 14. Transition Numbers with Momentum… • Peak Milk • Days Open • Calving Interval
- 15. Bias • Errors that occur when data is ignored or not used in the calculation • Using the wrong subset of cows, not including all of the cows, or not recording all of the data.
- 16. First service conception rate – A Biased Number • 2 breeding pens with 100 heifers each • Pen 1 – 50 heifers bred, 40 conceived – 80% 1st service conception rate • Pen 2 – 100 heifers bred, 60 conceived – 60% first service conception rate • 20 more pregnant heifers in #2
- 17. Transition Numbers with Bias… • 1st service Conc rate • Peak Milk • Days Open • Calving Interval
- 18. What Are Some Questions Related to Transition Success? • Three Areas 1. Healthy Transition 2. Cows ready to get pregnant 3. Good start to lactation
- 19. Healthy Transition: Questions • How many cows are leaving in early lactation? • How many cows are getting sick? • Are cows eating? • What do they look like?
- 20. Healthy Transition Metrics I like…. • 30 and 90 day cull rates – Cohort vs monthly – Goals • 3% and 7% for lact=1 • 5% and 10% for lact>1 • DA, RP, MET, and MAST rate – Set goals for each dairy • % cows <40 DIM that are <50 lbs
- 21. Healthy Transition Metrics to use with caution… • DMI for close-up • DMI for fresh pen
- 22. Healthy Transition Metrics I don’t like… • Fat percent of fresh cows • Fat:Protein ratios for fresh cows
- 23. Healthy Transition Future metrics? • BHB in milk • Body Weight in Fresh Cows? • Temp in Fresh cows?
- 24. Cows Ready to Get Pregnant: Questions • Are cows losing too much body condition? • Do cows have adequate body condition by 50 DIM? • How many cows are inseminated within 21 days of the VWP? • How many cows are pregnant within 21 days of the VWP?
- 25. Getting Cows Pregnant, Metrics I like… • 1st cycle Preg Rate for recent calvings • 1st cycle service rate for recent calvings • Scatter-plot of Days to 1st breeding vs. date • % Preg by 100 DIM and 150 DIM
- 26. Getting Fresh Cows Pregnant, Metrics to use with caution… • Conception rates – 1st service – By DIM • Conception rates are potentially biased, so you need to understand the bias
- 27. Getting Fresh Cows Pregnant, Metrics I don’t like… • Days Open • Calving Interval
- 28. Fresh Cow Milk: Questions • Are cows ramping up quickly in milk? • Do they milk during the peak window? • How many cows are “falling through the cracks”
- 29. Fresh Cow Milk Metrics I like… • Week 4 Milk • Week 8 milk • % over 100 lbs in herd • % of cows <40 DIM that are <50 lbs • 305ME projection at 2nd test day
- 30. Fresh Cow Milk Metrics I don’t like… • Peak Milk • 1st TD milk • Lactation curves
- 31. Why do we ignore components when assessing performance?
- 32. Biological measure of efficiency vs economics • Biology – 3.5% Fat corrected Milk • (0.515 x milk lbs) + (13.86 * fat lbs) – 4.0% Fat corrected Milk • (0.40 x milk lbs) + (15.00 * fat lbs) – Energy Corrected Milk • (0.323 x milk lbs) + (12.82 * fat lbs) + (7.13 x prot lbs)
- 33. Biological measure of efficiency vs economics • Economics – Money Corrected Milk™ • Value of milk produced relative to 3.5% fat, 3.0% protein and static component values • Units: pounds per day
- 34. Example Cow A Cow B • 90 lbs milk • 113 lbs milk • 4.20% fat • 3.30% fat • 3.40% protein • 2.60% protein • 5.65% other solids • 5.65% other solids Which Fresh Cow is better?
- 35. Example • Component Prices – Fat: $2.50/lb – Protein: $3.00/lb – Other Solids: $0.15/lb
- 36. Example • Milk check adjustments – Quality: $0.50/cwt – Hauling: -$1.00/cwt – Promotion: -$0.15/cwt – Basis: $2.00/cwt
- 37. Which Cow is better? Cow A Cow B • 90 lbs milk • 113 lbs milk • 4.20% fat • 3.30% fat • 3.40% protein • 2.60% protein • 5.65% other solids • 5.65% other solids
- 38. Which cow is better? Cow A Cow B • 90 lbs milk • 113 lbs milk • 4.20% fat • 3.30% fat • 3.40% protein • 2.60% protein • 5.65% other solids • 5.65% other solids • FCM: 98.7 lbs • FCM: 109.8 lbs FCM = 3.5% Fat Corrected Milk
- 39. Which cow is better? Cow A Cow B • 90 lbs milk • 113 lbs milk • 4.20% fat • 3.30% fat • 3.40% protein • 2.60% protein • 5.65% other solids • 5.65% other solids • FCM: 98.7 lbs • FCM: 109.8 lbs • ECM: 99.3 lbs • ECM: 105.2 lbs ECM = Energy Corrected Milk
- 40. Which cow is better? Cow A Cow B • 90 lbs milk • 113 lbs milk • 4.20% fat • 3.30% fat • 3.40% protein • 2.60% protein • 5.65% other solids • 5.65% other solids • FCM: 98.7 lbs • FCM: 109.8 lbs • ECM: 99.3 lbs • ECM: 105.2 lbs • MCM: 103.3 lbs • MCM: 103.3 lbs MCM = Money Corrected Milk
- 41. Which cow is better? Cow A Cow B • 90 lbs milk • 113 lbs milk • 4.20% fat • 3.30% fat • 3.40% protein • 2.60% protein • 5.65% other solids • 5.65% other solids • FCM: 98.7 lbs • FCM: 109.8 lbs • ECM: 99.3 lbs • ECM: 105.2 lbs • MCM: 103.3 lbs • MCM: 103.3 lbs • Income/day = $20.61 • Income/day = $20.61
- 42. Conclusions • Understand what you are measuring • Be sure there are enough cows to determine differences • Look at the cows • Don’t ignore components
- 43. Questions?