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S-Shaped Curve – population initially
                    shows exponential growth, then
Population Growth




                    the population numbers level
                    out as it approaches K

                                                  Carrying Capacity (K) –
                                                  The largest population a
                                                  particular environment can
                                                  support sustainable (long-
                                                  term) assuming there are no
                                                  changes in that environment.
Exponential Population Growth

The larger the population gets the faster
it grows.

Population of bacteria = 2n

n = the number of times the bacteria have
doubled in size, occurs every 30 minutes
In 24 hours the bacteria would double 48
times (n = 48)

Therefore, the population of bacteria after
24 hours of growth is:
248 = 281,474,976,710,656
How Populations are Measured

  3. Doubling Times: number of years it will take a population to double,
  assuming the current growth rates remain constant

            Rule of 70: a means of calculating doubling times, 70 divided by the
               current annual growth rate.

                      population doubling time = 70 ÷ annual rate of growth

            This rule applies to things at exponential growth (e.g., human
               population growth)


In finance we have the rule of 72 that says: If I invest $100 at 9% interest per
year then I can divide 72 by 9 (72/9 = 8), and this will tell me that in 8 years I will
have $200.
At 1.3% population growth, human
population will double in 55 years!
NOVA – Pregnancy Obstetric Fistula and Child Birth
in Ethiopia (Chapter 4, beginning of 5, 6)
“A Walk to Beautiful”

http://www.pbs.org/video/video/980049841/chapter/1/search/Africa
%20Poverty


Over 9,000 woman and girls develop fistula each
year in Ethiopia alone
NOVA – Child Birth in Developed
versus Undeveloped Country:
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/
beautiful/women.html
“Vampires” among the plague victims excavated in
Italian Plague (The Black Death) Graves from 1300s
– March, 2009.
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/08/
photogalleries/massgrave-pictures/photo4.html
Meadows, Dennis et al., The Limits to Growth, Potomac Associates, Washington DC,
1972; Meadows, Donella et al., Beyond the Limits, Earthscan Publications, 1992.

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Lecture 9 human population change

  • 1.
  • 2.
  • 3. S-Shaped Curve – population initially shows exponential growth, then Population Growth the population numbers level out as it approaches K Carrying Capacity (K) – The largest population a particular environment can support sustainable (long- term) assuming there are no changes in that environment.
  • 4. Exponential Population Growth The larger the population gets the faster it grows. Population of bacteria = 2n n = the number of times the bacteria have doubled in size, occurs every 30 minutes In 24 hours the bacteria would double 48 times (n = 48) Therefore, the population of bacteria after 24 hours of growth is: 248 = 281,474,976,710,656
  • 5.
  • 6.
  • 7.
  • 8.
  • 9.
  • 10.
  • 11.
  • 12.
  • 13.
  • 14.
  • 15.
  • 16.
  • 17.
  • 18.
  • 19.
  • 20. How Populations are Measured 3. Doubling Times: number of years it will take a population to double, assuming the current growth rates remain constant Rule of 70: a means of calculating doubling times, 70 divided by the current annual growth rate. population doubling time = 70 ÷ annual rate of growth This rule applies to things at exponential growth (e.g., human population growth) In finance we have the rule of 72 that says: If I invest $100 at 9% interest per year then I can divide 72 by 9 (72/9 = 8), and this will tell me that in 8 years I will have $200.
  • 21. At 1.3% population growth, human population will double in 55 years!
  • 22.
  • 23.
  • 24.
  • 25. NOVA – Pregnancy Obstetric Fistula and Child Birth in Ethiopia (Chapter 4, beginning of 5, 6) “A Walk to Beautiful” http://www.pbs.org/video/video/980049841/chapter/1/search/Africa %20Poverty Over 9,000 woman and girls develop fistula each year in Ethiopia alone
  • 26.
  • 27. NOVA – Child Birth in Developed versus Undeveloped Country: http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/ beautiful/women.html
  • 28.
  • 29.
  • 30.
  • 31.
  • 32.
  • 33.
  • 34.
  • 35.
  • 36.
  • 37.
  • 38. “Vampires” among the plague victims excavated in Italian Plague (The Black Death) Graves from 1300s – March, 2009. http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/08/ photogalleries/massgrave-pictures/photo4.html
  • 39.
  • 40.
  • 41.
  • 42.
  • 43.
  • 44.
  • 45.
  • 46. Meadows, Dennis et al., The Limits to Growth, Potomac Associates, Washington DC, 1972; Meadows, Donella et al., Beyond the Limits, Earthscan Publications, 1992.