Using statistics and historical data to answer the most infamous question in software.

1. When will it be done?
#AgileCamp2019 AgileCamp@GoAgileCamp
@danilog0611 danilo.garcia@objective.com.br
Danilo Garcia, Kanban Coach, Objective Solutions

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• 10 yrs + working with Software Development
• 6 yrs + working with Agile development
• Speaker, Kanban Coach and Trainer

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Context
• Project for a big bank
• Deadline in 6 months
• Thousands of dollars in fine
Predictability and the ability to forecast early is key!

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Systems Thinking
"A system is an interconnected set
of elements that is coherently
organized in a way that achieves
something."
- Donella Meadows

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Little’s Law and its
assumptions

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Predictability
Predictability is the degree of
confidence which we can correctly
predict a future state of a
system/process.

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Forecasting

8. Define the system Backlog Structure Variability

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Let’s try this crazy idea
Stabilize and make the system predictable

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Define the system

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Backlog Structure
Demand
Feature
Subtask

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Variability

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Cleaning House

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• Cycle Time (CT)
• Working in Progress (WIP)
• Throughput (TH)
All 3 must be measure in a
consistent way
1

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The avg Arrival rate should equal the avg Departure
rate2
5

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The avg Arrival rate should equal the avg Departure
rate2

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3 All work that is started will eventually be
completed and exit the system

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3 All work that is started will eventually be
completed and exit the system

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4 The amount of WIP should be roughly the same at
the beginning and at the end of time interval chosen
FIFO
queue
FIFO
queue

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4 The amount of WIP should be roughly the same at
the beginning and at the end of time interval chosen

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5 The average WIP age is neither decreasing or
increasing

23. “The prerequisite for meaningful forecasts is a stable system,
and that is a system in which the Work in Progress is limited.”
Klaus Leopold

24. System Stabilization

25. Monte Carlo Simulation

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Monte Carlo Simulations
• Remaining Backlog
• Backlog Growth rate
• Class of services
• Work Item Types
Use simulations to understand different possibilities

28. Forecasting is about asking the right question.
Predictability is the degree of confidence we can
answer it.

29. How to use all this tomorrow?
1. Define your system
2. Measure cycle time (CT),
Throughput (TH) and Working in Progress (WIP)
3. Limit your working in progress (WIP)
4. Use Monte Carlo Simulation
5. Rinse and repeat everyday

31. References
Vacanti, Daniel (2015) “Actionable Agile Metrics for Predictability: An Introduction”.
https://www.amazon.com/Actionable-Agile-Metrics-Predictability-Introduction/dp/098643633X
Magennis, Troy (2014) “The Economic Impact of Software Development Process Choice – Cycle-time Analysis and Monte
Carlo Simulation”. http://focusedobjective.com/paper-the-economic-impact-of-software-development-process-choice-
cycle-time-analysis-and-monte-carlo-simulation-results/
Leopold, Klaus (2017) “Practical Kanban: From Team Focus to Creating Value”.
https://www.amazon.com/Practical-Kanban-Focus-Creating-Value-ebook/dp/B077RZ2JNS
Meadows, Donella (2008). “Thinking in Systems: A Primer”
https://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Systems-Donella-H-Meadows/dp/1603580557
Anderson, D. J. (2010). Kanban: Successful Evolutionary Change for Your Technology Business. Sequim: Blue Hole
Press.
http://www.djaa.com/kanban-successful-evolutionary-change-your-technology-business-0
Little’s Law
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little%27s_law
Central Limit Theorem
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_limit_theorem