The document summarizes capital markets results for major banks in 1Q16 compared to 1Q15. It finds that overall operating revenue dropped 25% year-over-year, with weakness seen across fixed income, currencies and commodities as well as debt capital markets. Front office productivity also declined despite job cuts in those areas. Profits fell even more sharply than revenue, with pre-tax profit dropping 30% overall. European banks faced additional challenges from regulations capping bonuses, which increased fixed costs. Specific business lines like credit trading and securitization saw especially steep declines.

1. Sector
1 / 6 20 May 2016
© Tricumen Limited 2016. All rights reserved.
Capital Markets: Results Review 1Q16
 The combined 1Q16 operating revenue of banks in this report dropped 25% y/y, from US$54bn to
US$41bn. Front office productivity also declined across the board, despite continuing/extended
headcount cuts: 1,600 across BAML, BNPP, Citi, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs and
Societe Generale, primarily in FICC, but also in equity derivatives (Credit Suisse) and DCM
(Deutsche Bank). By contrast, equity and electronic trading teams are hiring at BNPP, Citi,
Deutsche Bank, J.P.Morgan and Societe Generale.
 The pre-tax profit slumped 30% versus 1Q15. In equities and advisory/underwriting, banks cut
costs in-step with a drop in revenue; FICC aggregate profit, however, fell by 42% y/y.
 The EU's cap on bonuses has hobbled banks' ability to match costs with the shifts in revenue
streams. Banks have reduced deferred comp in recent years, but the fixed component of cost at
European arms of banks in this report jumped from c.60% in FY12 to 72% in FY15. Coupled with
weak markets, this all but guarantees the continued weakness in profitability - or, indeed, a loss.
Now, US regulators appear set to effect similar measures, extending the proposals from 2011.
Operating Revenue (1Q15) (1Q16)
% change share of peer group operating revenue and pre-tax profit (1Q16 / 1Q15)
Notes: (1) Tricumen product definitions throughout. (2) Revenue is post-writedowns, excludes DVA/equivalent and one-offs.
(3) Headcount: Front office full-time equivalent, adjusted for seniority. (4) Pre-tax profit excludes Prop & Principal Investments..
$0.6m
$1.2m
$0.6m
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
0.8 1 1.2
$0.7m
$1.4m
$0.8m
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
0.8 1 1.2
FICC
Equity
Prop &
PrincInv
Primary
Operating Revenue
(US$bn)
Op't Revenue / FO FTE
Headcount (US$m)
Operating Revenue
(US$bn)
Op't Revenue / FO FTE
Headcount (US$m)
$1.6bn $0.4bn
$13.9bn
$11.6bn
$25.1bn
$18.7bn
$13.3bn
$10.0bn
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
3m15
0.9%
1.0%
-0.3%
1.3%
-1.9%
-0.6%
-3.5%
0.5%
2.0%
0.3%
-0.1%
0.6%
-0.3%
2.3%
4.1%
-1.9%
-1.5%
-12.5%
1.5%
-0.9%
0.2%
6.6%
0.9%
3.6%
0.3%
-2.7%
-0.15
-0.1
-0.05
0
0.05
0.1
BAML BARC BNPP Citi CS DBK GS HSBC JPM MS RBS SG UBS
mkt
share
gain
mkt
share
loss
Revenue
Pre-Tax Profit

2. Sector
2 / 6 20 May 2016
© Tricumen Limited 2016. All rights reserved.
Primary issuance & Advisory
 In DCM, bond and loan issuance fees dropped by c.27% globally, despite 20% growth in APAC ex-
Japan. Margins achieved on loan deals were moderately ahead of 1Q15 - largely due to the US
markets - but this was not the case in bond deals, suggesting a dim outlook for banks' earnings in
2Q16 and perhaps beyond.
 Securitisation is still struggling. In the USA, Goldman Sachs and Citi placed US$1.8bn of CMBS
paper in March; but in Europe, AFME data shows that 1Q16 was the worst since 2011 as concerns
about capital charges outweigh ECB's and EU efforts. Agency CMO issuance was also depressed.
 ECM fees and volumes halved from 1Q15 in both Europe and the USA. All major industry sectors
registered sharp drops, especially financials, healthcare and real estate. APAC ex-Japan, by
comparison, outperformed, declining 'only' 27% from prior-year period.
 M&A/Advisory was essentially unchanged from 1Q15 - except in the USA, where fees declined
c.25% y/y. Fees from technology firms jumped, but financials and healthcare suffered steep falls.
Operating Revenue (1Q15) (1Q16)
% change share of peer group operating revenue and pre-tax profit (1Q16 / 1Q15)
Notes: (1) Tricumen product definitions throughout. (2) Revenue is post-writedowns, excludes DVA/equivalent and one-offs.
(3) Headcount: Front office full-time equivalent, adjusted for seniority. (4) Pre-tax profit excludes Prop & Principal Investments.
$0.7m
$1.9m
$0.5m
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
0.8 1 1.2
$0.6m
$1.1m
$0.4m
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
0.8 1 1.2
DCM &
Securitisation
ECM
M&A /
Advisory
Operating Revenue
(US$bn)
Op't Revenue /FO FTE
Headcount (US$m)
Operating Revenue
(US$bn)
Op't Revenue /FO FTE
Headcount (US$m)
$3.5bn $3.4bn
$2.8bn
$1.4bn
$7.0bn
$5.1bn
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
3m15
0.4%
1.5%
0.2%
-0.2%
-1.3%
-0.6%
0.3%
0.5%
-1.7%
1.1%
0.1%
0.4%
-0.6%
0.2%
2.3%
0.8%
2.0%
-2.5%
-2.8%
-0.2%
0.2%
-0.4%
0.5%
0.2%
-0.3%
-0.04
-0.03
-0.02
-0.01
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
BAML BARC BNPP Citi CS DBK GS HSBC JPM MS RBS SG UBS
N/M
mkt
share
gain
mkt
share
loss
Revenue
Pre-Tax Profit

3. Sector
3 / 6 20 May 2016
© Tricumen Limited 2016. All rights reserved.
FICC
 In FX, both spot and emerging markets remain depressed, with client revenue opportunity 25-32%
below 1Q15. Swap and options recovered slightly from the weak 4Q15, cushioning the blow.
Banks in this report have cut front office headcount by 32% since 2012; with no apparent catalyst
for the recovery in sight and increasing electronification, we expect further cuts in staffing levels.
 Swap rates markets steadied in the USA and, to a lesser extent, Europe; the overall client revenue
opportunity grew in Japan for JGBs. Exotics revenue registered a moderate decline.
 Credit was the key area of weakness, mostly due to severe weakness in Europe. Europe is likely to
experience further disruption: from mid-May, largest traders are obliged to start moving the
region's derivatives benchmarks through central clearinghouses. In March, the ECB expanded its
stimulus programme to include corporate bonds, though the initial surge in activity appeared to
have cooled off by early April. CDO issuance nosedived as the CLO market faltered.
 Commodities revenue extended a sharp decline seen in recent quarters as banks pulled out of
most markets. Goldman Sachs, with its significant investment in natural gas, is - for now - an
exception. The revenue opportunity grew modestly in the USA, but dropped in Europe and APAC.
Operating Revenue (1Q15) (1Q16)
% change share of peer group operating revenue and pre-tax profit: (1Q16 / 1Q15)
Notes: (1) Tricumen product definitions throughout. (2) Revenue is post-writedowns, excludes DVA/equivalent and one-offs.
(3) Headcount: Front office full-time equivalent, adjusted for seniority. (4) Pre-tax profit excludes Prop & Principal Investments.
$1.6m
$1.1m
$1.8m
$1.0m
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
0.8 1 1.2
$1.6m
$1.0m
$1.1m
$1.1m
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
0.8 1 1.2
FX
Rates
Credit
Commodities
Operating Revenue
(US$bn)
Op't Revenue /FO FTE
Headcount (US$m)
Operating Revenue
(US$bn)
Op't Revenue /FO FTE
Headcount (US$m)
$1.7bn $1.2bn
$8.9bn
$4.7bn
$8.2bn
$7.5bn
$6.3bn
$5.4bn
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
3m15
1.1%
1.4%
-0.0%
2.8%
-2.5%
-0.8%
-4.6%
1.1%
3.4%
-2.0%
-0.3%
1.0%
-0.5%
4.2%
3.1%
-4.0%
3.2%
-23.3%
7.5%
-0.5%
3.1%
17.5%
-6.6%
-4.6%
2.3%
-2.1%
-0.3
-0.25
-0.2
-0.15
-0.1
-0.05
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
BAML BARC BNPP Citi CS DBK GS HSBC JPM MS RBS SG UBS
mkt
share
gain
mkt
share
loss
Revenue
Pre-Tax Profit

4. Sector
4 / 6 20 May 2016
© Tricumen Limited 2016. All rights reserved.
Equities
 Cash equity revenues were strong in European and US hi-touch markets, and in European
electronic markets. This, however, was more than offset by the weakness in North American and
APAC electronic markets. In APAC hi-touch, the activity has returned to levels last seen before the
Mutual Market Access between China and Hong Kong led to a surge in trading activity.
 In equity derivatives, structured products were the key underperformer, especially in Europe and
APAC. Listed products held up better.
 Prime services were broadly unchanged despite a slowdown in securities lending in the US. Hedge
funds' assets under management were in-line with 1Q15.
Operating Revenue (1Q15) (1Q16)
% change share of peer group operating revenue and pre-tax profit (1Q16 / 1Q15)
Notes: (1) Tricumen product definitions throughout. (2) Revenue is post-writedowns, excludes DVA/equivalent and one-offs.
(3) Headcount: Front office full-time equivalent, adjusted for seniority. (4) Pre-tax profit excludes Prop & Principal Investments.
$0.6m
$1.0m
$0.8m
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
0.8 1 1.2
$0.5m
$0.8m
$0.8m
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
0.8 1 1.2
EQ Cash
EQ Derv'&
Converts
Prime
Services
Operating Revenue
(US$bn)
Op't Revenue / FO FTE
Headcount (US$m)
Operating Revenue
(US$bn)
Op't Revenue / FO FTE
Headcount (US$m)
$3.1bn $3.0bn
$6.2bn
$4.5bn
$4.7bn
$4.1bn
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
3m15
0.5%
-0.4%
-1.4%
0.2%
-2.2%
-1.1%
1.7%
-0.6%
2.2%
2.9%
-1.3%
-0.5%
8.7%
7.3%
-2.8%
1.6%
-8.4%
-5.5%
-3.1%
-2.0%
8.9%
6.8%
-2.9%
-8.7%
-0.1
-0.08
-0.06
-0.04
-0.02
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
BAML BARC BNPP Citi CS DBK GS HSBC JPM MS RBS SG UBS
N/A
mkt
share
gain
mkt
share
loss

5. Sector
5 / 6 20 May 2016
© Tricumen Limited 2016. All rights reserved.
Revenue dynamics
1Q16 / 1Q15 (Operating revenue, % change, US$, Global Level 1)
Source: Tricumen. Notes: (1) Tricumen product definitions throughout. (2) Arrows show % change in revenue vs peers. Up-
/down-arrows: top-/bottom-quartile. (3) Revenue is post-writedowns, excludes DVA/equivalent and one-offs, as described in
the Company Section.
BAML BARC BNPP Citi CS DBK GS HSBC JPM MS RBS SG UBS Top 25% Bottom 25%
Capital Markets: Total -15% -30%
Primary -16% -30%
DCM Bonds -12% -28%
DCM Loans +9% -28%
Securitisation -13% -45%
ECM N/M -31% -49%
M&A / Advisory N/M +11% -19%
Sales & Trading -14% -33%
FX -3% -18%
Rates +3% -22%
Credit N/M -16% -66%
Commodities N/M N/M -10% -47%
EQ Cash N/M +2% -19%
EQ Derv & Converts N/M -15% -40%
Prime Services N/M +2% -12%
Prop Trading N/M N/M N/M N/M N/M N/M N/M -11% -64%
Principal Investments N/M N/M N/M N/M N/M N/M N/M N/M N/M -66% -92%

6. Sector
6 / 6 20 May 2016
© Tricumen Limited 2016. All rights reserved.
About Tricumen
Tricumen was founded in 2008. It quickly became a strong provider of diversified market intelligence
across the capital markets and has since expanded into transaction and corporate banking coverage.
Tricumen’s data has been used by many of the world’s leading investment banks as well as strategy
consulting firms, investment managers and ‘blue chip’ corporations.
Situated near Cambridge in the UK, Tricumen is almost exclusively staffed with senior individuals with
an extensive track record of either working for or analysing banks; and boasts what we believe is the
largest capital markets-focused research network of its peer group.
Notes & Caveats
Tricumen Limited has used all reasonable care in writing, editing and presenting the information found
in this report. All reasonable effort has been made to ensure the information supplied is accurate and
not misleading. For the purposes of cross- market comparison, all numerical data is normalised in
accordance to Tricumen Limited’s proprietary product classification. Fully-researched dataset may
contain margin of error of 10%; for modelled datasets, this margin may be wider.
The information and commentary provided in this report has been compiled for informational purposes
only. We recommend that independent advice and enquiries should be sought before acting upon it.
Readers should not rely on this information for legal, accounting, investment, or similar purposes. No
part of this report constitutes investment advice, any form of recommendation, or a solicitation to buy
or sell any instrument or to engage in any trading or investment activity or strategy. Tricumen Limited
does not provide investment advice or personal recommendation nor will it be deemed to have done so.
Tricumen Limited makes no representation, guarantee or warranty as to the suitability, accuracy or
completeness of the report or the information therein. Tricumen Limited assumes no responsibility for
information contained in this report and disclaims all liability arising from negligence or otherwise in
respect of such information.
Tricumen Limited is not liable for any damages arising in contract, tort or otherwise from the use of or
inability to use this report or any material contained in it, or from any action or decision taken as a
result of using the report.
© Tricumen Limited 2016. All rights reserved