Presentation by Clàudia Ylla Arbós, Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands, at the Delft3D - User Days (Day 3a: River morphodynamics), during Delft Software Days - Edition 2019. Wednesday, 13 November 2019, Delft.
Reassessing the Bedrock of Clinical Function Models: An Examination of Large ...
DSD-INT 2019 Response of the Upper Rhine-Meuse Delta to Climate Change and Anthropogenic Interference - Ylla
1. Response of the Upper Rhine-Meuse Delta to
Climate Change and Anthropogenic Interference
Clàudia Ylla Arbós
with
Francesca Soci
Ralph Schielen
Astrid Blom
Photo: RWS
2. 2
Observed regional trends of river
flood discharges in Europe
(1960–2010).
Blöschl, G., Hall, J., Viglione, A. et
al. Changing climate both increases and
decreases European river
floods. Nature 573, 108–111 (2019).
4. What is the expected range of long term (100-150 years),
large scale response of the upper Rhine-Meuse Delta to
climate change …
Objective
4
…and anthropogenic interference?
5. Outline
5
1. Climate change affects the RMD
2. Bed level change in the past
3. Bed level change today
4. Climate change and future bed level change
6. What has been going on? – Waal
1830
6
1870
1930
http://topotijdreis.nl/
Rijkswaterstaat
7. What has been going on? – Waal
1830
7
Downstream-migrating
degradational wave
Flow
velocity
Sedim. transp.
capacity
Channel
narrowing
Equilibrium
channel slope
1870
1930
http://topotijdreis.nl/
11. The slope of the IJssel has decreased as well… but wait
11
Room for the River
Initial response to Room for the River measures ?
12. Statistics of water discharge:
Extremer extremes
Longer dry periods
Climate change affects the river system
12
Sea level rise
… because it affects the river controls
13. River response to sea level rise
13
Sea level rise of 3 mm/yr during 24 years
Steady flow with dominant discharge
Unisize sediment
Engelund-Hansen sediment transport relation
14. River response to sea level rise
14
Upstream-migrating
aggradational wave
Sea level rise of 3 mm/yr during 24 years
Steady flow with dominant discharge
Unisize sediment
Engelund-Hansen sediment transport relation
Flow
velocity
Sedim. transp.
capacity
Base
level
Reach-wide bed level rise
(equilibrium slope unchanged)
16. Hydrograph scenarios
River response to an increased dominant discharge
Adapted from Sperna-Weiland, 2014
16
Greater effect
of peak flows
Dominant
discharge
Flow
velocity
Sedim. transp.
capacity
Equilibrium
channel slope
Historic mean
Bandwidth of
scenarios
Downstream-migrating
degradational wave
Adapted from Arkesteijn et al. (2019)
17. Insight on the Upper Rhine-Meuse delta
› Highly intervened system
› Response to measures of past century – has slowed down
› Response to recent measures – fast?
› Climate change affects the system:
› Sea level rise - Enhanced aggradation
› Higher dominant discharge – Slope reduction, degradation
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