Presentation given at ZDay London 2013: "A Humanity+ and Singularity perspective on hopes for human sustainability and progress". For more details of ZDay London see http://zdaylondon2013.eventbrite.co.uk/.

1. Slideshare.NET : DeltaWisdom : DW_ZDayLondon2013
A Humanity+ and Singularity perspective on
hopes for human sustainability and progress
David Wood, Catalyst & Futurist, Delta Wisdom, @dw2
http://dw2blog.com/
London Futurists, www.meetup.com/London-Futurists
Z-Day London 2013
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2. Five themes
1. Plans for better, more sustainable social structures
need to pay attention to factors causing large change
– Otherwise we’ll be solving “yesterday’s problems”
2. Technology’s impact on society is accelerating
– With increasingly dramatic effect, both positive & negative
3. It’s hard to predict the future (“the future is opaque”)
– But we can (and must) learn to do it better
4. There are many possible near-future scenarios
– Our actions can (and must) make a decisive difference
5. Key concepts to watch out for…
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3. It’s hard to predict the future
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Source: Newsweek, January 2011
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4. The conceptual language of futurists
• Chinese?
• Accelerating change
– Driven by positive feedback circles
• Convergence
– When accelerating changes collide
• Singularity
– Where things could be headed, sooner than expected
• Humanity+
– A philosophy to make sense of all the above
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5. It’s hard to predict the future
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Source: Newsweek, January 2011
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6. Newsweek birth and (?)rebirth
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http://adage.com/article/the-media-guy/print-newsweek-covers/238918/ 6

7. Newspaper ad revenue
?
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http://mjperry.blogspot.co.uk/2012/09/freefall-adjusted-for-inflation-print.html 7

8. Collapse of newspaper ad revenue
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http://mjperry.blogspot.co.uk/2012/09/freefall-adjusted-for-inflation-print.html 8

9. A world of converging technology
Are
impacted &
transformed
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10. Collisions and collapses
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http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/hmv-collapse-live-blog-follow-1534816 10

11. Collisions and collapses
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http://www.digitaltrends.com/home-theater/blockbuster-uk-administration/ 11

12. A world of converging technology
Are
impacted &
transformed
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13. A world of converging technology
Are
impacted &
enhanced
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14. A world of converging technology
Are impacted
& transformed
? Are impacted
& enhanced
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15. Convergence in the last decade
2000-2010-…
“Smartphones for all”
• Increasingly smart mobile phones
• More CPU, more data, more network bandwidth
• Used by more and more people, worldwide
• Converging & delivering more and more utility
• Colour, Cameras, Rich Messaging, Browsing, Social Networks,
Games, Maps, Augmented Reality, Buying & Selling
• Generating more and more business
• And disrupting more and more business (winners and losers)
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16. Convergence in this decade
2000-2010-…
2000-2010-…
“Smartphones for all”
“Smartphones for all”
2011-2015...
“Smartphone technology everywhere”
A disruptive new wave of convergence
of embedded software
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17. Information in our glasses
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www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/04/06/sergey-brin-google-glasses_n_1408488.html 19

18. Golden-i voice-controlled Headset Computer
“The Golden-i Operating System (Gi-OS) provides a user friendly
interface and a complete set of core applications.
Available now on selected Golden-i headsets, revolutionizing the
way people work through hands-free technology.
Gi-OS includes a new high performance hardware accelerated
graphics subsystem, built on an OpenGL that includes support for
transparencies and transition animations to create a professional
look and feel for your applications.”
http://www.ikanosconsulting.com/home/ Z-Day London 2013
James Bond-esque video at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tpBwRX68fIY 20

19. Smartphone technology embedded everywhere
“Feature phones” / “Touch phones” / “Super phones”
Wearable computers:
Tablets / Slates
uniforms, watches, spectacles
Consumer electronics: Connected homes:
cameras, eReaders, toys... Smart TVs, Heating, Security
Smart, connected cars
Smart meters and grids
In Vehicle Infotainment (IVI)
Industrial automation
Smart digital signs
(smart connected robots)
Smart micro-bots
Mobile medical devices (and nano-bots…)
Your suggestions here!
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20. Kindle books vs. physical books
E-books leapfrog
physical books at Amazon
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
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www.theverge.com/2012/9/6/3298533/amazon-kindle-event-september-6th-video-watch 22

21. Accelerating progress
• A desktop PC purchased in 1989 came equipped with
a 20 megabyte hard disk
• A USB external hard disk purchased in 2009, for
roughly the same amount of money (taking account
of inflation), was 2 terabytes in size
• That’s an increase of 100,000 times over 20 years
• Broadly equivalent to hard disks doubling in size,
without the price increasing, every 14.5 months over
that 20 year period
• Exponential growth – example of Moore’s Law
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22. (Gordon) Moore’s Law: 1965
The number of transistors on
a chip will double about
every two years
(Doubling period originally
stated as every one year)
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www.intel.com/pressroom/kits/events/moores_law_40th/ 24

23. Improvement in energy efficiency of computing
Computations per kWh, 1940-2010
10^3 to 10^15
40 doublings over 60 years:
18 months average doubling
Source:
Johnathan Koomey,
Technology Review,
9 Apr 2012
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24. The next five years (2013-2018)?
x 21/3
x2
x2
x2
18 months 18 months 18 months +6
Technology x 10
Faster… Cheaper… Smaller…
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25. Improvement in wireless networks
Cooper’s Law: The amount of
information that can be
transmitted over useful radio
spectrum has roughly doubled
every 30 months since 1895
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www.arraycomm.com/technology/coopers-law 27

26. Positive feedback cycles
Computers
Design,
Manufacturing
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27. Positive feedback cycles
Software
Software tools
(debuggers,
compilers…)
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28. Positive feedback cycles
Technology
Education
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29. Positive feedback cycles
Technology
Networks People
Education
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30. Positive feedback cycles
Technology
Platform
Developers Consumers
Marketing
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31. Positive feedback cycles
Technology
Entrepreneurs Citizens
Politics
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32. Example of progress by combination
• Over 800 million unique users visit YouTube each month
• Over 4 billion hours of video watched each month
• 72 hours of video are uploaded to YouTube every minute
• 70% of YouTube traffic comes from outside the US
• In 2011, YouTube had more than 1 trillion views
– or around 140 views for every person on Earth
• Technologies enabling You Tube explosion
– Proliferation of Internet users
– Fast Internet access
– Ubiquitous cameras (including in smartphones)
– Cheap storage and fast processing
www.youtube.com/t/press_statistics Z-Day London 2013
Michell Zappa: http://envisioningtech.com/ 34

33. Example of progress by combination
• Technologies enabling Kindle explosion
– Cheap storage
+ Innovative business model
– Low energy screens
– High-speed “Whisper net” wireless distribution
– Huge catalog of books available to purchase
Z-Day London 2013
Michell Zappa: http://envisioningtech.com/ 35

34. Basis for radically improving healthcare
“Technology super-convergence”
• Miniature sensors • Ubiquitous smartphones
• Imaging & scanning • Communications facilities
• 3D manufacturing • Next generation social
• Electronic medical networks
records • Huge computing power
• Synthetic biology • Expert decision systems
• Personalised genomics • Online medical training
Z-Day London 2013
http://CreativeDestructionOfMedicine.com/ – Eric Topol MD 36

35. Technology NBIC mega-convergence
Atoms Genes
Nano- Bio-
Tech Tech
S^ ?
Cogno-
ICT
Tech
Neurons Bits
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http://www.wtec.org/ConvergingTechnologies/Report/NBIC_report.pdf 38

36. The Singularity (S^)
• We can no longer predict what happens next
• Computers / robots more intelligent than humans
• More generally intelligent than humans
• They can create even better computers / robots
• => Rapid, recursive, self-improvement cycle…
• Super-intelligent systems could solve many existing
deep human problems (disease, death, economics…)
• But first we have to get there… (perhaps 15-30 years)
• Surviving the next 15-30 years will be ultra-critical
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37. The Singularity Race
Negative Positive
Singularity Singularity
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38. Winning the Singularity Race
Negative Positive
Singularity Singularity
Embrace enhancing
humanity
Turn H into H+
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39. The Humanity+ vision
• Humanity is on the brink of a momentous leap forwards
in evolution
– If we are wise and strong, we can make that leap
• This evolutionary transformation takes advantage of
rapidly improving technology
– Technology that arises from positive virtuous cycles and
unprecedented interdisciplinary convergence
– This technology will grant us awesome powers: the power to
capture ample energy from the Sun, the atom, and beyond; the
power to synthesise new materials to rejuvenate our
environment and fuel our societies; the power to realise an
unparalleled abundance of health, security, vigour, vitality,
creativity, knowledge, and experience
Z-Day London 2013
http://dw2blog.com/2013/02/04/responding-to-the-call-for-a-new-humanity-manifesto/ 42

40. The Humanity+ vision (continued)
• But technology is a two-edged sword
– Alongside the potential for transcendent improvement lies the
potential for existential destruction
– We face fearsome perils of environmental catastrophe,
unstoppable new plagues and pathogens, rampant
unemployment and alienation, the collapse of world financial
markets, pervasive systems of unresponsive computers and
moronically intelligent robots that act in frustration to human
desires, horrific new weaponry that could easily fall into the
wrong hands and precipitate Armageddon, and intensive
mechanisms for draconian surveillance and thought control
• Continuing the status quo is not an option
– Any quest for sustainability of current lifestyles is a delusion. We
cannot stay still, and we cannot retreat. The only way to survive
is radical enhancement – moving from Humanity to Humanity+
Z-Day London 2013
http://dw2blog.com/2013/02/04/responding-to-the-call-for-a-new-humanity-manifesto/ 43

41. 10 dramatic changes in 5-10 yrs
1. Smartphone technology everywhere
2. Personalised digital medicine; synthetic organs…
3. Smart drugs – boost concentration, memory
4. 3D printers and 3D scanners – reduction of waste
5. Growth of connected intelligent systems (AIs) (IoT)
6. Driverless cars
7. Robots increasingly displace humans from workforce
8. Large numbers of intelligent, diligent unemployed
9. Need new model of social justice to cope – Quickly!
10. Political parties need to transform to remain relevant
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42. Recap: Five themes
1. Plans for better, more sustainable social structures
need to pay attention to factors causing large change
– Otherwise we’ll be solving “yesterday’s problems”
2. Technology’s impact on society is accelerating
– With increasingly dramatic effect, both positive & negative
3. It’s hard to predict the future (“the future is opaque”)
– But we can (and must) learn to do it better
4. There are many possible near-future scenarios
– Our actions can (and must) make a decisive difference
5. Key concepts to watch out for
– Accelerating change, convergence, Singularity, Humanity+
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43. Recommended further reading
http://www.singularityweblog.com/ http://hplusmagazine.com/
http://transhumanity.net/
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44. Recommended further reading
Mark Stevenson Joel Garreau James Hughes
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45. Recommended further reading
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46. Slideshare.NET : DeltaWisdom : DW_ZDayLondon2013
A Humanity+ and Singularity perspective on
hopes for human sustainability and progress
David Wood, Catalyst & Futurist, Delta Wisdom, @dw2
http://dw2blog.com/
London Futurists, www.meetup.com/London-Futurists
Z-Day London 2013
49