Intro sustainable energy

Sustainable Energy:
An Unbiased Review of Options
Session 1: Motivations for
Change
Brian Sowerby
Former Chief Research Scientist
CSIRO Minerals
Brian Sowerby, TTA Workshop, 2012

Course Purpose
 The course is aimed at equipping high school science,
technology and geography teachers to tackle the
complex issues of sustainable energy and climate
change.
 The course aims to provide a balanced overview of the
various options required to provide energy in the future
while minimising environmental damage.
 The focus of the course will be on providing technical
details on the various technologies and on conducting a
realistic evaluation of these technologies.

Course Structure
Session 1: Motivations for Change.
 Why change our energy production and use?
Session 2: Energy Consumption.
 Review our energy consumption now and in the future.
Session 3: Renewable Technologies.
 Could we meet our energy demands using renewables such as wind, solar
(photovoltaic, thermal, biomass), hydroelectric, geothermal, wave and tide?
Session 4: Coal, Gas and Nuclear.
 Can fossil fuels sustainably meet our energy demands and are low emission
technologies feasible?
 What about nuclear energy?
Session 5: Future Energy Plans
 Energy plans that add up
Session 6: Resources for Teachers

Key References
Primary sources of unbiased information, graphs, charts, etc
 David MacKay, “Sustainable Energy – Without the Hot
Air”
 ATSE (Australian Academy of Technological Sciences
and Engineering) publications, seminars, etc
 IEA (International Energy Agency) publications
All above are available free on line

Session 1: Outline
 Global energy situation
 Motivations for Change
Energy resources
Energy security
Environmental impact
 Climate Change
 Carbon in the environment

Global Situation
Population Growth
 7 billion in 2011 rising to 9 billion by 2050.
 all aspiring to improved quality of life.
Market Economy
 economic growth has delivered untold wealth & power -
to some!
 but under current rules, it may damage the planet.
Poverty & Inequality
 15% of world population enjoy 80% of world GDP.
 43% live on less than $2 per day.
 inequality in the developed world is increasing.

Global Energy Usage
Source: Wikipedia

Primary Energy Consumption by Sector
in Australia, 2005-6 (Garnaut, 2008)
Note: Aluminium smelting uses about 15% of electricity production in Australia.
Aluminium mainly for export.

Source: MacKay, D. 2009

Scale of the Problem
A Few Statistics
 Current oil consumption ~ 1000 barrels/second
 China is building ~ Two 500 MW power plants/week
 Renewables (solar, wind, biomass,…) account for less
than 1% of the world energy supply.
 Australia emits about 560 million tonnes of CO2 per
year. Global emissions about 45,000 million tonnes.
 Every person in Australia emits, on average, about
26 t CO2 /person/year.

Energy – Three Motivations for Change
1) Fossil Fuels are a Finite Resource
 Possible that cheap oil and cheap gas will run out in our
lifetime
 Fossil fuels are a valuable resource for manufacture of
plastics, etc
2) Security of Energy Supply
 Availability and prices of supplies
 Political stability of suppliers
 Competition from growing economies
1) Environmental Impact of Energy Usage
 Global climate change (CO2, CH4,…)
 Urban/Region pollution (NOx, SOx, Particulates,…)
 Water supply

Reason to Change 1: Declining Oil Discoveries
Source: http://www.energybulletin.net/node/41311

World Oil Reserves

World Oil Production
Peak oil is the point in time when demand exceeds supply. International
Energy Agency (IEA) estimates a 2030 peak.
Source: IEA http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/docs/weo2010/key_graphs.pdf

Fossil Fuel Reserve-to-Production Ratios
 Global reserve-to-production ratios (RPR) for each
resource is an indicator of the time remaining before
each resource is completely exhausted.
Fuel Unit Reserves Annual
Usage
(2005)
RPR
(years)
Oil Trillions
barrels
1.2-2 0.03 40-70
Coal Billions
tons
998 6 164
Natural
Gas
Quads 6370 108 59
Source: http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo/pdf/0484(2011).pdf

Australian Situation
 Australia is currently doing
well out of energy,
consuming about one-third
of what it produces and
exporting the balance
(mainly in form of coal)
 By 2030, Australia could be
importing 100 per cent of its
oil as its known domestic
reserves run out
 ECOS magazine Issue 139
explores Australia’s energy
resource options http://
www.treasurer.gov.au/DisplayDocs.aspx?pageID
=&doc=speeches/2006/001.htm&min=
phc

Reason to Change 2: Energy Security
 Threats to energy security include
 political instability of some energy producing
countries,
 manipulation of energy supplies,
 competition over energy sources and
 attacks on supply infrastructure.
 Energy independence important because of the
limited supplies, uneven distribution, and rising
costs of fossil fuels.
 Example: As a direct result of the 1973 oil crisis,
France initiated a nuclear power program aimed
at generating all of France's electricity from
nuclear power.

Reason for Change 3:
Climate Change
Caused in Part by
Increasing CO2
 Sea level rise
 Global temperature rise
 Warming oceans
 Shrinking ice sheets
 Declining Arctic sea ice
 Glacial retreat
 Extreme events
 Ocean acidification

Debate
 Wide range of views regarding a
possible future energy crisis, e.g.
 Goodstein “Out of Gas” predicts an oil
crisis when production can’t meet
demand – perhaps as soon as 2020 or
2025.
 Lomborg “The Skeptical
Environmentalist” (2001) - no energy
crisis – recently changed view – “Smart
Solutions to Climate Change” (2010)
 Lovelock “The Revenge of Gaia” - too late
to establish sustainable development.

Climate Models
Climate models use
quantitative methods to
simulate the interactions of the
atmosphere, oceans, land &
ice.
All climate models take
account of incoming energy
(chiefly visible and short-wave
(near) infrared, as well as
outgoing energy as long wave
(far) infrared radiation from the
earth.
They all predict global
warming due to anthropogenic
increases in CO2
Source: http://
www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/futuretc.html

CO2 Concentrations in the Atmosphere

CO2 Concentrations
http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/

Evidence for Rapid
Climate Change
 Global temperature rise
 Sea level rise
 Reduced snow cover
 Declining Arctic sea ice
 Glacial retreat
 Warming oceans
 Extreme events
 Ocean acidification

Source:
http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-

Ocean Temperatures
 The best measure of global warming is ocean heat
content as it absorbs nearly 90 per cent of
additional heat trapped by greenhouse gases.
Ocean heat
content:Thick
blue line
Ocean surface
temperature:
Thick aqua line
Domingues, C.M., Church, J.A., White, N.J., Gleckler, P.J., Wijffels, S.E., Barker, P.M. and Dunn, J.R. (2008). Improved
estimates of upper-ocean warming and multi-decadal sea-level rise. Nature 453, doi:10.1038, pp. 1090–1094.

Observed and modeled Arctic sea-ice
extent (Source: IPCC)

Climate Changes in the Past
 Ice ages have occurred in ~100,000 year
cycle for the past 700,000 years
 Changes in the orbital cycles of the earth
(shape of orbit, tilt of earth, wobble) may
be a major cause of these ice ages.

Ice Core Data (Pettit et al, 1999)

Climate Change: Oceans
 One major cause of regional climate variation is
ocean currents
 Oceans huge heat capacity (~1000 x
atmosphere)
 Oceans contain ~60 x carbon in atmosphere and
~20 x terrestial carbon
 pH of ocean gradually increasing (by 0.1 since
1750)
 Sea level variations by ~120 m in ice ages.
Since 1870 sea levels have risen ~200 mm

Carbon:
Where is it?
Note:
1 tonne CO2 contains
0.27 tonnes of C

Carbon:
Where is it going?
Equilibration between CO2
in atmosphere and ocean surface
is rapid (~25 years to absorb half
added pulse from atmosphere)
However oceans circulate slowly
~1000 years for deep ocean water
Note carbon-14 from bomb tests in
60s and 70s has penetrated to depth
of only ~400m

References: Climate Change
 Australian Academy of Science (2010), ‘The Science of Climate
Change: Questions and Answers’; http://
www.science.org.au/policy/climatechange.html
 Australian Academy of Technological Sciences and Engineering
(ATSE), 32nd Annual Symposium, ‘Rising to the Challenge of
Climate Change’, Nov 2009.
http://www.atse.org.au/resource-centre/func-startdown/107/
 The Copenhagen Diagnosis: Climate Science Report, http://
www.copenhagendiagnosis.org/
 Royal Society (2010), ‘Climate Change: A Summary of the
Science’,
http://royalsociety.org/policy/publications/2010/climate-change-summary- ‘Seven Answers to Climate Contrarian Nonsense’ by John Rennie
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id
=seven-answers-to-climate-contrarian-nonsense&SID=mail&sc=
emailfriend

Some Climate Change Resources for Teachers
 Australian Institute of Physics, Victoria Branch Education Committee,
Teacher Action on Climate Change, http://www.vicphysics.org/index.php?id
=145
 CSIRO Carbonkids (Educational Service),
http://www.csiro.au/resources/CarbonKids-program.html
 CSIRO CarbonKids: Unit of Work ‘Understanding Climate Change’, http://
www.csiro.au/files/files/pqnj.pdf
 CSIRO Teacher Resources Overview, http://www.csiro.au/org/ps2m.html
 American Association for the Advancement of Science, Global Climate
Change Resources http://www.aaas.org/news/press_room/climate_change/
 ‘Seven Answers to Climate Contrarian Nonsense’ by John Rennie
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id
=seven-answers-to-climate-contrarian-nonsense&SID=mail&sc=emailfriend

Australian Institute of Physics, Victoria Branch,
Teacher Action on Climate Change, http://
www.vicphysics.org/index.php?id=145
A series of papers and presentations on climate change:
Discussion paper on Climate Change
What's wrong with climate deniers
Climate Science - How do we decide
Countering Climate Confusion
The Physics of the Climate
An Introduction to the Science of the Climate
Science Teachers for Climate Awareness
The Science of Climate Change
Could Climate Sceptics be Right?

CSIRO Teacher Resources Overview,
http://www.csiro.au/org/ps2m.html
 CarbonKids is an innovative educational program for
primary and middle schooling years that combines the
latest in environmental science with education in
sustainability. It provides a range of resources for both
primary and secondary school communities to better
understand climate change and encourage sustainability.
 http://www.csiro.au/resources/CarbonKids-program.html
 Document ‘Understanding Climate Change’, http://
www.csiro.au/files/files/pqnj.pdf

Australia Institute, 2009. Nine modules on Teaching Climate
Change compiled by staff at The Australia Institute in conjunction
with high school teachers and university academics who work in
the field of climate change. http://
www.teachingclimatechange.com.au/
 Module 1 The science of climate change
 Module 2 The impacts of climate change
 Module 3 Australia’s emissions
 Module 4 International negotiations
 Module 5 The ethics of climate change
 Module 6 The economics of climate change
 Module 7 Forms of energy generation
 Module 8 Solutions to reduce Australia’s emissions
 Module 9 Nuclear energy

Session 1: Summary
Three strong motivations to change from our high
dependence on fossil fuels as our energy source
 Fossil Fuels are a Finite Resource
 Environmental Impact of Energy Usage
 Current global warming substantially arises from greenhouse
gas emissions from the burning of fossil fuels
 Security of Energy Supply

Question for Discussion
 Of the three motivations to change (finite
resources, climate change, energy security)
which do you think is the most important and
why
For individuals?
For Australia?
For the World?
 Discuss in groups

Intro sustainable energy

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