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Major Fail: Lessons from the Dam Breach at 
Mount Polley Mine, British Columbia 
Dylan McFarlane
Check Back in January 
Dirk Van Zyl 
Norbert Morgenstern 
Steven Vick 
Sources 
• KP Reports (2009, 2010) 
• Websites (Miner & Regulator) 
• Media 
• Blogs (ithinkmining.com)
1. The Failure 
2. Lessons
Mt. Polley
Mt. Polley
A Medium-Sized Copper-Gold Porphyry Mine
Upstream 
Downstream 
Centerline
Side-hill 
Impoundment
Perimeter Embankment 
Main Embankment 
& Buttress 
Failure Zone 
South Embankment
Fraser River 
100 km 
5 km 
Polley Lake 
Quesnel Lake 
Hazeltine Creek 
Mount Polley Mine 
Tailings Facility 
Likely 
Sacred Fire 
Quesnel River
42t4hthAJuugluy s2t0 210414 
Polley Lake 
2 km 
Quesnel Lake 
Hazeltine Creek 
Mount 
Polley 
Mine 
Tailings Facility
Before 
Polley Lake 
2 km 
Quesnel Lake 
Hazeltine Creek 
Mount 
Polley 
Mine 
Tailings Facility
After 
Polley Lake 
2 km 
Quesnel Lake 
Hazeltine Creek 
Mount 
Polley 
Mine 
Tailings Facility
Fraser River 
100 km 
Polley Lake 
2 km 
Quesnel Lake 
Hazeltine Creek 
Mount 
Polley 
Mine 
Tailings Facility
Timeline of Events 
1997 
Operation 
2001 – 2005 
Closure - 
Restart 
2005 – 2006 
Expansion & 
Dam Review 
2010 
Human 
Failures 
Quesnel Lake 
2009 – 2012 
Water 
Surplus 
2014 
Disaster 
Closure
1997 
Operation 
2001 – 2005 
Closure - 
Restart 
2005 – 2006 
Expansion & 
Dam Review 
2010 
Human 
Failures 
2009 – 2012 
Water 
Surplus 
2014 
Disaster 
Closure
1997 
Operation 
2001 – 2005 
Closure - 
Restart 
2005 – 2006 
Expansion & 
Dam Review 
2010 
Human 
Failures 
2009 – 2012 
Water 
Surplus 
2014 
Disaster 
Closure
85 Mt  500 Mt 
1997 
Operation 
2001 – 2005 
Closure - 
Restart 
2005 – 2006 
Expansion & 
Dam Review 
2010 
Human 
Failures 
2009 – 2012 
Water 
Surplus 
2014 
Disaster 
Closure
1997 
Operation 
2001 – 2005 
Closure - 
Restart 
2005 – 2006 
Expansion & 
Dam Review 
2010 
Human 
Failures 
2009 – 2012 
Water 
Surplus 
2014 
Disaster 
Closure 
Review risk classification 
Dam breach and inundation analysis 
10-15 m tension crack  stability assessment 
Lacustrine unit 4mm displacement, buttress 
Poor beach development (since 2008) 
40% piezometers failed (since 2006) 
Lack of monitoring phreatic surface, flows 
Water surplus  stochastic analysis 
85 Mt ultimate storage capacity exceeded
1997 
Operation 
2001 – 2005 
Closure - 
Restart 
2005 – 2006 
Expansion & 
Dam Review 
2010 
Human 
Failures 
2009 – 2012 
Water 
Surplus 
2013/2014 
Disaster 
Closure 
Review water surplus issue 
Structural engineer needed 
Sedimentation ponds 
Groundwater monitoring 
Emergency preparedness 
Liberal BC Premier Gordon Campbell 
Regulatory staff cut 20% 
Risk burden  consultants
1997 
Operation 
2001 – 2005 
Closure - 
Restart 
2005 – 2006 
Expansion & 
Dam Review 
2010 
Human 
Failures 
2009 – 2012 
Water 
Surplus 
2014 
Disaster 
Closure 
Gerald MacBurney: 
Dam foreman, whistleblower 
2013: AMEC said 5 Mt rock buttress 
needed  but less than 1 Mt received 
2014: 
Media frenzy 
Eco-babble
Perimeter Embankment 
Main Embankment 
& Buttress 
Failure Zone 
South Embankment 
2010 Tension Crack
Independent Engineering Review Board 
Dirk Van Zyl 
Norbert Morgenstern 
Steven Vick
Materials Description Amount 
Water Supernatant water 10.6 Mm3 
Slurry Tailings solids 7.3 Mm3 
Interstitial water 6.5 Mm3 
Construction Soil, gravel, agg. 0.6 Mm3 
Total 25.0 Mm3 
Non-acid generating (ave. pH 8.5) 
Acute exceedances in total metal contents: 
• Cu, Fe…..Zn, Se, Cr, V 
Chronic exceedances: turbidity, suspended solids 
Physical impacts 
• Erosion and scour 
• Deposition of trees and woody debris 
• Deposition of tailings and eroded earth 
Plume 25 – 35m below surface extending for tens of 
square kilometres 
• Deep station (65 m) = highest concentration (>200 
μg Cu vs. Aquatic Life WQG 7 μg) 
LUCKY!!! 
No ARD 
No dissolved, bioavailable metals 
No impacts beyond Quesnel
Tahltan Elders Blockade Red Chris Mine
The Response 
Mount Polley Mining Company 
Indefinite care and maintenance 
Conceptual Interim Erosion and Sediment 
Control Plan 
• Improve water quality 
• Reduce re-mobilization potential 
• Manage TSF flows to Springer Pit 
Ask for money! 
Mount Polley funding Red Chris Dev. 
Regulators 
Order, Emergency, Water Ban 
Independent Expert Engineering Review 
Dam Safety Inspections for all permitted 
mines in BC including: 
Review of Consequence risk classification 
Provide a lot of information!
Communication
Remediation Plan
Dyke Construction
Pumping out Polley Lake
22.5 Tonnes of Heli-seeding
Access
How Did it Happen?
Jack Caldwell’s Ideas 
Upstream failure 
Piping 
Embankment crack due to soil creep 
Embankment crack due to differential foundation deformation 
Ithinkmining.com
Forces Driving Failure > Forces Resisting Failure
Dam Breach empirical evidence suggests 80 – 120m breach width
Events Leading to Failure 
Weak lacustrine FOUNDATION (artesian?)  creep, deformation; unstable 
Tailings rise too fast, poor beaching 
TOO MUCH WATER 
Poor adherence to OSM (Operation, Maintenance and Surveillance) manual 
Overtopping incidents weaken structure (+/- piping) 
Borrow pit excavation weakens foundation 
POOR MANAGEMENT 
Buttress: too little, too late 
Overtopping, slip failure, collapse
Weak, wet foundation soils? 
Artesian 
Foundation 
Main Embankment 4mm Displacement  Buttress Required 
2013: Buttressing Perimeter Embankment
Water Surplus – No Beaching 
2011 2012 2013 
May 2014 June 2014 July 2014
Incidents & Violations since 2012 (from MoE) 
2012 
Failure to report height exceedance for tailings pond 
August: Overflow of 150 m3 water 
Groundwater monitoring well data not submitted (twice) 
2013 
May: Dam breach (unreported, unverified) 
2014 
April: Overflow (spring freshet – pump blockage) 
May: Pond height exceedance
Global Mining 
British Columbia 
Community 
MPMC 
• Tarnished brand image 
• Social license to operate 
• Attracting young talent 
• Reputation, Trust, Legacy 
• Mandatory regulations 
• Blockades, permitting 
• Economic stress 
• Cultural loss 
• Sediment Plume – Salmon 
• Job losses 
• Bankruptcy 
Impacts
How many salmon will die? 
Sediment Plume 
Tens of kilometres square near Hazeltine and 
Raft Creek 
Mostly deep (< 65m) 
Turbidity, suspended solids: milky, opaque 
25 – 35m plume mobilized by sill…? 
1 million salmon fry – sensitive at 2 μg Cu
Costs 1: Direct Remediation and Reclamation 
Respected geotechnical engineers: $50 – 500 M 
Imperial Metals estimate: 
Closure bond $ 14.5 M (of $38 M) 
Total assets (minus liabilities) ~ $ 443 M ( - 50% ) 
Financing $ 115 M financing 
Insurance proceeds ??? ~~~ $150 M ??? 
Minus Red Chris mine commissioning costs ~ $70 M 
~ $60 - 300 M
Costs 2: Indirect Reputational, Social, Political 
Minimum $ 500 M 
My Starting Guess: $ 1 – 20 Billion 
Some Costs: Access, Permitting, Delays, Blockades, SLO, 
Management, External Relations
A Picture Says a Thousand Words
Disastrous for Brand Image
Lessons, Thoughts, Ideas
Mine Wastes: Black Swans of Mining 
• An expensive, non-productive, complex asset 
• Significant societal risks  In PERPETUITY 
Highly Improbable 
Extreme Impact 
Explainable in Retro 
• Nobody wants operational responsibility, “Duty of Care”
TSFs – Watch the Corners, Manage Water 
Stress wants to flow,; alignment, foundation… 
Waters cause a lot of failures – never an 
“Act of God”
Twenty Years of Progress
Failure Rates Improved but are they 
Acceptable? 
(Oboni & Oboni 2014) 
3.5 MAJOR dams breach 
on average per year 
(1974 – 1984) 
0.7 MAJOR dams breach 
on average per year 
(1994 – 2004)
In the long term, the probability of 
failure of all tailings dams is one. 
Therefore in quantifying risks, all we 
need to consider is consequence. 
Steve Vick at Tailings and Mine Waste 2014
Disclosure, Discounts & Dry Stacks 
Disclose Data & Reports Online  SOCIAL AUDIT 
Practice of Discounting Closure Costs Bad (10% 30 Year LoM = ~ $ 0) 
Closure Costs Routinely Underestimated 
Long-term Performance Uncertainty 
Dry Stacked Tailings Good: Filter, Stack  Soil 
High CAPEX but Communities Love It! 
La Coipa, Chile 18ktpd 
Long-term Value Comparable only if Discount Practice Changes
Conclusion 
Mount Polley was a human failure – Managers, Engineers, Regulators 
Entirely Preventable 
We, Salmon, are Lucky it wasn’t Worse 
A Picture Says a Thousand Words 
Indirect Impacts in $$$ Billions 
Towards Sustainable Mining – Not Quite Yet 
Managing Mine Wastes Requires Holistic, Long-Term Approach
Major Fail: Lessons from the Dam Breach at Mount Polley Mine, British Columbia

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Major Fail: Lessons from the Dam Breach at Mount Polley Mine, British Columbia

  • 1. Major Fail: Lessons from the Dam Breach at Mount Polley Mine, British Columbia Dylan McFarlane
  • 2. Check Back in January Dirk Van Zyl Norbert Morgenstern Steven Vick Sources • KP Reports (2009, 2010) • Websites (Miner & Regulator) • Media • Blogs (ithinkmining.com)
  • 3. 1. The Failure 2. Lessons
  • 9.
  • 10. Perimeter Embankment Main Embankment & Buttress Failure Zone South Embankment
  • 11. Fraser River 100 km 5 km Polley Lake Quesnel Lake Hazeltine Creek Mount Polley Mine Tailings Facility Likely Sacred Fire Quesnel River
  • 12. 42t4hthAJuugluy s2t0 210414 Polley Lake 2 km Quesnel Lake Hazeltine Creek Mount Polley Mine Tailings Facility
  • 13. Before Polley Lake 2 km Quesnel Lake Hazeltine Creek Mount Polley Mine Tailings Facility
  • 14. After Polley Lake 2 km Quesnel Lake Hazeltine Creek Mount Polley Mine Tailings Facility
  • 15. Fraser River 100 km Polley Lake 2 km Quesnel Lake Hazeltine Creek Mount Polley Mine Tailings Facility
  • 16.
  • 17. Timeline of Events 1997 Operation 2001 – 2005 Closure - Restart 2005 – 2006 Expansion & Dam Review 2010 Human Failures Quesnel Lake 2009 – 2012 Water Surplus 2014 Disaster Closure
  • 18. 1997 Operation 2001 – 2005 Closure - Restart 2005 – 2006 Expansion & Dam Review 2010 Human Failures 2009 – 2012 Water Surplus 2014 Disaster Closure
  • 19. 1997 Operation 2001 – 2005 Closure - Restart 2005 – 2006 Expansion & Dam Review 2010 Human Failures 2009 – 2012 Water Surplus 2014 Disaster Closure
  • 20. 85 Mt  500 Mt 1997 Operation 2001 – 2005 Closure - Restart 2005 – 2006 Expansion & Dam Review 2010 Human Failures 2009 – 2012 Water Surplus 2014 Disaster Closure
  • 21. 1997 Operation 2001 – 2005 Closure - Restart 2005 – 2006 Expansion & Dam Review 2010 Human Failures 2009 – 2012 Water Surplus 2014 Disaster Closure Review risk classification Dam breach and inundation analysis 10-15 m tension crack  stability assessment Lacustrine unit 4mm displacement, buttress Poor beach development (since 2008) 40% piezometers failed (since 2006) Lack of monitoring phreatic surface, flows Water surplus  stochastic analysis 85 Mt ultimate storage capacity exceeded
  • 22. 1997 Operation 2001 – 2005 Closure - Restart 2005 – 2006 Expansion & Dam Review 2010 Human Failures 2009 – 2012 Water Surplus 2013/2014 Disaster Closure Review water surplus issue Structural engineer needed Sedimentation ponds Groundwater monitoring Emergency preparedness Liberal BC Premier Gordon Campbell Regulatory staff cut 20% Risk burden  consultants
  • 23. 1997 Operation 2001 – 2005 Closure - Restart 2005 – 2006 Expansion & Dam Review 2010 Human Failures 2009 – 2012 Water Surplus 2014 Disaster Closure Gerald MacBurney: Dam foreman, whistleblower 2013: AMEC said 5 Mt rock buttress needed  but less than 1 Mt received 2014: Media frenzy Eco-babble
  • 24. Perimeter Embankment Main Embankment & Buttress Failure Zone South Embankment 2010 Tension Crack
  • 25. Independent Engineering Review Board Dirk Van Zyl Norbert Morgenstern Steven Vick
  • 26. Materials Description Amount Water Supernatant water 10.6 Mm3 Slurry Tailings solids 7.3 Mm3 Interstitial water 6.5 Mm3 Construction Soil, gravel, agg. 0.6 Mm3 Total 25.0 Mm3 Non-acid generating (ave. pH 8.5) Acute exceedances in total metal contents: • Cu, Fe…..Zn, Se, Cr, V Chronic exceedances: turbidity, suspended solids Physical impacts • Erosion and scour • Deposition of trees and woody debris • Deposition of tailings and eroded earth Plume 25 – 35m below surface extending for tens of square kilometres • Deep station (65 m) = highest concentration (>200 μg Cu vs. Aquatic Life WQG 7 μg) LUCKY!!! No ARD No dissolved, bioavailable metals No impacts beyond Quesnel
  • 27. Tahltan Elders Blockade Red Chris Mine
  • 28. The Response Mount Polley Mining Company Indefinite care and maintenance Conceptual Interim Erosion and Sediment Control Plan • Improve water quality • Reduce re-mobilization potential • Manage TSF flows to Springer Pit Ask for money! Mount Polley funding Red Chris Dev. Regulators Order, Emergency, Water Ban Independent Expert Engineering Review Dam Safety Inspections for all permitted mines in BC including: Review of Consequence risk classification Provide a lot of information!
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  • 37. 22.5 Tonnes of Heli-seeding
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  • 42.
  • 43. How Did it Happen?
  • 44. Jack Caldwell’s Ideas Upstream failure Piping Embankment crack due to soil creep Embankment crack due to differential foundation deformation Ithinkmining.com
  • 45.
  • 46. Forces Driving Failure > Forces Resisting Failure
  • 47. Dam Breach empirical evidence suggests 80 – 120m breach width
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  • 49.
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  • 53. Events Leading to Failure Weak lacustrine FOUNDATION (artesian?)  creep, deformation; unstable Tailings rise too fast, poor beaching TOO MUCH WATER Poor adherence to OSM (Operation, Maintenance and Surveillance) manual Overtopping incidents weaken structure (+/- piping) Borrow pit excavation weakens foundation POOR MANAGEMENT Buttress: too little, too late Overtopping, slip failure, collapse
  • 54. Weak, wet foundation soils? Artesian Foundation Main Embankment 4mm Displacement  Buttress Required 2013: Buttressing Perimeter Embankment
  • 55. Water Surplus – No Beaching 2011 2012 2013 May 2014 June 2014 July 2014
  • 56. Incidents & Violations since 2012 (from MoE) 2012 Failure to report height exceedance for tailings pond August: Overflow of 150 m3 water Groundwater monitoring well data not submitted (twice) 2013 May: Dam breach (unreported, unverified) 2014 April: Overflow (spring freshet – pump blockage) May: Pond height exceedance
  • 57. Global Mining British Columbia Community MPMC • Tarnished brand image • Social license to operate • Attracting young talent • Reputation, Trust, Legacy • Mandatory regulations • Blockades, permitting • Economic stress • Cultural loss • Sediment Plume – Salmon • Job losses • Bankruptcy Impacts
  • 58. How many salmon will die? Sediment Plume Tens of kilometres square near Hazeltine and Raft Creek Mostly deep (< 65m) Turbidity, suspended solids: milky, opaque 25 – 35m plume mobilized by sill…? 1 million salmon fry – sensitive at 2 μg Cu
  • 59. Costs 1: Direct Remediation and Reclamation Respected geotechnical engineers: $50 – 500 M Imperial Metals estimate: Closure bond $ 14.5 M (of $38 M) Total assets (minus liabilities) ~ $ 443 M ( - 50% ) Financing $ 115 M financing Insurance proceeds ??? ~~~ $150 M ??? Minus Red Chris mine commissioning costs ~ $70 M ~ $60 - 300 M
  • 60. Costs 2: Indirect Reputational, Social, Political Minimum $ 500 M My Starting Guess: $ 1 – 20 Billion Some Costs: Access, Permitting, Delays, Blockades, SLO, Management, External Relations
  • 61. A Picture Says a Thousand Words
  • 63.
  • 65. Mine Wastes: Black Swans of Mining • An expensive, non-productive, complex asset • Significant societal risks  In PERPETUITY Highly Improbable Extreme Impact Explainable in Retro • Nobody wants operational responsibility, “Duty of Care”
  • 66.
  • 67. TSFs – Watch the Corners, Manage Water Stress wants to flow,; alignment, foundation… Waters cause a lot of failures – never an “Act of God”
  • 68. Twenty Years of Progress
  • 69. Failure Rates Improved but are they Acceptable? (Oboni & Oboni 2014) 3.5 MAJOR dams breach on average per year (1974 – 1984) 0.7 MAJOR dams breach on average per year (1994 – 2004)
  • 70. In the long term, the probability of failure of all tailings dams is one. Therefore in quantifying risks, all we need to consider is consequence. Steve Vick at Tailings and Mine Waste 2014
  • 71. Disclosure, Discounts & Dry Stacks Disclose Data & Reports Online  SOCIAL AUDIT Practice of Discounting Closure Costs Bad (10% 30 Year LoM = ~ $ 0) Closure Costs Routinely Underestimated Long-term Performance Uncertainty Dry Stacked Tailings Good: Filter, Stack  Soil High CAPEX but Communities Love It! La Coipa, Chile 18ktpd Long-term Value Comparable only if Discount Practice Changes
  • 72. Conclusion Mount Polley was a human failure – Managers, Engineers, Regulators Entirely Preventable We, Salmon, are Lucky it wasn’t Worse A Picture Says a Thousand Words Indirect Impacts in $$$ Billions Towards Sustainable Mining – Not Quite Yet Managing Mine Wastes Requires Holistic, Long-Term Approach

Notas del editor

  1. Not really research, but some thoughts and musings on this extraordinary, upsetting, unfortunate failure event.
  2. The Failure How did it happen? Geotechnical Why did it happen? Human failures leading up to the event Impacts Costs Lessons Failure Rates Engineering Responsibility Managing Mine Wastes ? Risk Uncertainty Future Costs & Solutions For most of you uninterested in F-N curves and risk tolerability this will all be pretty boring so hopefully I’ve included enough pretty pictures for you. Feel free to interrupt at any time.
  3. Quesnel Lake ~160m deep (up to 600m) largest lake BC. Fjord/glacial lake, with a sill 20km west of lake outlet
  4. Importance of water flows and managing the water balance
  5. Dam length ~ 4 kilometers
  6. Scale and north area and labels!
  7. BC climate – wet. Deep glacial fjord lakes and watercourses support fishing, tourism, and logging industries.
  8. BC climate – wet. Deep glacial fjord lakes and watercourses support fishing, tourism, and logging industries.
  9. BC climate – wet. Deep glacial fjord lakes and watercourses support fishing, tourism, and logging industries.
  10. Drains measured only once since June 2009, instead of weekly as Operation, Maintenance and Surveillance Manual recommends. Piezometer monthly, or weekly during construction.
  11. Williams Lake “opposed to any
  12. Gerald MacBurney “Eco-babble” – This Twittered fish caught in a lake ~400km South, off the Fraser River. “skinned peeled off like never before, sick”.
  13. Dam length ~ 4 kilometers
  14. 52% drop in value
  15. Latest empirical evidence suggests 40m dam breach result in 80 – 120 m wide section, but it is much wider, and different morphology.
  16. Could easily look at latent and active failures. All human error in engineering or management judgement
  17. Environmental – not so bad Social – pretty bad Political – very bad, fallout for Liberal party in BC Financial – very bad for Imperial, pretty bad for North America, bad for global mining projects Geotechnical Engineering – bad for AMEC Regulatory – very bad failed oversight No significant, adverse, long term impacts, but uncertainty about sediment plume (monitoring)
  18. All the stuff nobody wants. Negative connotation. (Waste rock, tailings, low grade and spent ore – leach operation). Geologists say it’s not ore, Metallurgists send it out the mill, Engineers don’t want to see it, and in doesn’t make money for Managers. May also includes industrial wastes (fly ash from coal plants) top soil or overburden (non-reactive), etc. Mine Wastes are not inspiring. When 3rd years do a feasibility study, wastes understandably receive limited attention. Planning and operation typically employs the “observational approach”. Let’s see what happens. NOBODY WANTS RESPONSIBILITY FOR IT. Usually the aspect of development plans that communities protest The importance of mine wastes. Contain all the stuff that we don’t want. The largest risk at mine sites. Facilities much larger than pits and mine infrastructure. Very costly to manage responsibly (managers often cut resources during market downturns). Risk that lasts in “perpetuity” (activist phrase) ie FOREVER. Acid and metal leaching potential. Very complex to design, build, operate, and close. And in long term (as all geos and geotechs here can appreciate), these structures will all fail into soup and flow into our rivers. Managing the risks of mine wastes is paramount to any notion of “responsible” or “sustainable” mining.