1. ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS
Hazel H. Reinhardt
December 12, 2013

2. SUMMARY
 Projected enrollment
 Single-family detached housing units projected to
increase by 2,047 units in the next five years

This large increase in housing units creates a divergence in
projections made via the cohort survival method and the
housing unit method. In 2018-19:
 3,809 total K-5 enrollment projected by the cohort model
 Reflects the decline in district births and current survival
rates
 4,606 resident K-5 enrollment via housing starts method
 Attendance area specific yields for new units and turnover

3. SUMMARY
 Immediate effect of the increase in housing units on
middle school and high school enrollments is relatively
small. Most of the effect will come when the elementary
students “age” into middle school after 2018-19 and into
high school in the 2020s
 Eastern Carver County Public School District
characterized by a large loss of students through the
public options of open enrollment and charter schools
 Net loss of about 1,000 students

4. TOTAL ENROLLMENT HISTORY
K-12 TOTAL ENROLLMENT
2004-05
8,091
2005-06
8,397
2006-07
8,585
2007-08
8,662
2008-09
8,630
2009-10
8,838
2010-11
8,908
2011-12
8,976
2012-13
9,179
2013-14
9,246
Excludes Early Childhood but includes the ALC

5. COMPONENTS OF
ENROLLMENT CHANGE
Total
Fall to Fall
#
%
Natural
Increase/Decrease
Net
Migration
2004 to 2005
306
3.8
138
168
2005 to 2006
188
2.2
66
122
2006 to 2007
77
0.9
2
75
2007 to 2008
-32
0.4
-35
3
2008 to 2009
208
2.4
81
127
2009 to 2010
70
0.8
23
47
2010 to 2011
68
0.8
-22
90
2011 to 2012
203
2.3
45
158
2012 to 2013
67
0.7
4
63

6. Grade
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
K
639
664
681
605
597
672
645
605
655
678
TOTAL ENROLLMENT
1
668
2
671
3
673
4
727
5
670
6
695
7
727
8
706
9
807
10
748
11
781
12
695
Total
9,246

7. AVERAGE CLASS SIZE
 “Average” class size
• 681 K-5
• 709 6-8
• 758 9-12
• These “average class sizes point to flat if not declining
enrollment unless kindergarten is larger than today

8. RESIDENT BIRTHS
RESIDENT LIVE BIRTHS
Year
Minnesota
Carver County
1998
65,207
1,052
1999
65,953
1,086
2000
67,451
1,140
2001
66,617
1,183
2002
68,037
1,165
2003
70,053
1,182
2004
70,617
1,253
2005
70,950
1,237
2006
73,515
1,338
2007
73,675
1,269
2008
72,382
1,194
2009
70,617
1,142
2010
68,407
1,186
2011
68,416
1,035

9. DISTRICT RESIDENT BIRTHS
1998-1999
576
1999-2000
621
2000-2001
664
2001-2002
615
2002-2003
647
2003-2004
658
2004-2005
677
2005-2006
724
2006-2007
715
2007-2008
635
2008-2009
605
2009-2010
605
2010-2011
607
2011-2012
518
2012-2013
552

10. MACRO TRENDS
 Aging population
• Less mobility
• Decrease in school age population per household
• Shift in size of adult age groups

Less demand for single-family detached housing
 More births this decade and the next (Gen Y)
• Another enrollment cycle (third)


Rising elementary enrollment in the first half of the cycle
Another large graduating class about 2040 (end of cycle)

11. PROJECTION METHODOLOGIES
 Cohort survival method
 Projections by grade
 Reflects recent births and current size of grades
 Difficult to calibrate survival rates to reflect additional
housing units, especially if a large number of units
 Housing starts method
 Crude, only a total projection, no projection by grade
 Reflects new housing units and turnover
 Does not reflect recent births or differences in current
grade sizes

12. KINDERGARTEN CAPTURE RATES
 Cohort survival method
 Kindergarten Assumptions


Low is 99.2%, the average of the past two years
High is 106.8%, this year (fall 2013)

13. NET MIGRATION
SCHOOL YEAR TO SCHOOL YEAR
Grade
04 to 05
05 to 06
06 to 07
07 to 08
08 to 09
09 to 10
10 to 11
11 to 12
12 to 13
K-5
139
69
45
16
75
51
17
100
60
6-8
20
14
34
-14
68
32
32
20
-14
9-12
9
39
-4
1
-16
-36
41
38
17
Total
168
122
75
3
127
47
90
158
63

14. ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS
Year
Low K
Low Mig
Low K
High Mig
High K
Low Mig
High K
High Mig
2013-14
9,246
9,246
9,246
9,246
2014-15
9,252
9,245
9,298
9,291
2015-16
9,191
9,185
9,285
9,279
2016-17
9,167
9,165
9,309
9,308
2017-18
9,005
9,004
9,190
9,190
2018-19
8,917
8,930
9,146
9,160
2019-20
8,909
8,939
9,192
9,223
2020-21
8,954
8,992
9,291
9,331
2021-22
9,037
9,075
9,432
9,473
2022-23
9,069
9,115
9,525
9,576
2023-24
9,158
9,216
9,680
9,743

15. ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS
K-5
6-8
9-12
Total
4,087
2,128
3,031
9,246
Low K/Low Mig
3,743
2,115
3,059
8,917
Low K/High Mig
3,769
2,133
3,027
8,930
High K/Low Mig
3,972
2,115
3,059
9,146
High K/High Mig
4,000
2,133
3,027
9,160
Low K/Low Mig
4,227
1,898
3,033
9,158
Low K/High Mig
4,257
1,935
3,023
9,216
High K/Low Mig
4,548
2,043
3,089
9,680
High K/High Mig
4,581
2,083
3,079
9,743
2013-14
2018-19
2023-24

16. By School
By Attendance Area

17. GRADE 1-5 ENROLLMENT
School
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
Bluff Creek
477
476
480
492
478
Chanhassen
502
478
455
407
417
Chaska
505
469
444
428
433
Clover Ridge
672
686
704
709
692
East Union
191
188
199
201
166
Jonathan
499
520
511
501
516
Victoria
590
637
625
607
623
41
84
3,345
3,409
LAA
Total
3,436
3,454
3,418
2013-14

18. PROJECTED DEVELOPMENT FOR
NEXT FIVE YEARS
Single-Family
Detached
Townhomes
Condos
Carver
786
0
0
Chanhassen
346
366
0
Chaska
415*
0*
0
Victoria
445
10
0
1,992
376
0
City
Total
* A major new mixed residential development (City of Chaska) slated to begin in 2016. Between 200-300
may be built. These units are not included in the above counts

19. PROJECTED SINGLE-FAMILY
DETACHED UNITS
Attendance
Area
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
Total
Bluff Creek
67
67
47
56
49
286
Chanhassen
14
14
10
12
10
60
Chaska
0
0
0
0
0
0
Clover Ridge
51
*[30]
**[60]
[60]
[60]
51[261]
East Union
110
***[95]
[95]
[95]
[95]
110[490]
Jonathan
104
252
59**[30]
[30]
[30]
415[505]
Victoria
180
202
63
0
0
0
0
0
0
526
535
[660]
179
[364]
68
[253]
59
[244]
1,367
[2,047]
Victoria South
Total
**Less certain as to single-family
455

20. NEW DEVELOPMENT
 637 new single-family detached units in past 3.5 years
 2,047 projected in next 5 years

21. K-5 RESIDENT YIELD FROM SINGLEFAMILY UNITS
Existing Units
(pre 2010)
Non Movers
2010-June 2013
Movers
New Units
#
Yield
#
Yield
#
Yield
Bluff Creek
1,301
0.21
234
0.30
164
0.34
Chanhassen
2,003
0.14
231
0.28
41
0.24
Chaska
1,374
0.20
196
0.24
33
0.21
Clover Ridge
1,604
0.34
309
0.29
111
0.37
East Union
638
0.25
102
0.31
3
0.33
Jonathan
1,483
0.23
226
0.22
159
0.31
Victoria
1,448
0.27
270
0.36
122
0.52
253
0.15
40
0.10
4
0.00
Victoria South

22. ATTENDANCE AREA PROJECTIONS
2018-19
RESIDENT STUDENTS ONLY
2013-14
Bluff Creek
Single-Family
Units
486
All Other
Units
128
Total
614
Total
524
Chanhassen
396
120
516
483
Chaska
331
210
541
537
Clover Ridge
737
117
854
790
East Union
351
1
352
193
Jonathan
589
162
751
594
Victoria
870
108
978
703
3,760
846
4,606
3,824
Attendance Area
District wide
Increase of 782 resident students

23. PROJECTION COMPARISON
2018-19
School
589
Attendance Area*
---
Bluff Creek
480
614
Chanhassen
402
516
Chaska
455
541
Clover Ridge
642
854
East Union
124
352
Jonathan
499
751
Victoria
618
978
LAA
206
Kindergarten
3,809
District wide
Difference
797 students
4,606

24. By School

25. MIDDLE SCHOOL PROJECTIONS
School
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
Chaska East
707
727
752
758
765
737
Chaska West
777
799
818
827
808
755
Pioneer Ridge
644
583
559
550
545
559
LAA
Sum
84
2,128
2,109
2,129
2,135
2,118
2,051

26. MIDDLE SCHOOL HOUSING UNIT
PROJECTION
 Immediate effect of new units is small
 205 additional students; some will leave middle school
before others arrive
 Large impact after 2018-19 as elementary students “age”
into middle school

27. By School

28. HIGH SCHOOL PROJECTIONS
School
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
Chanhassen
1,613
1,635
1,658
1,665
1,639
1,669
Chaska
1,346
1,366
1,334
1,324
1,284
1,303
3,045
3,032
3,034
2,970
3,027
IAA
District wide
72
3,031

29. HIGH SCHOOL HOUSING UNIT
PROJECTION
 Immediate effect of new units is small
 205 additional students
 Impact after 2018-19 and continuing into the 2020s as
elementary students “age” into high school