Scenario building using a bottom-up national transport demand model

1. Modeling energy
demand from
India’s transport
sector
Scenario building using a
bottom-up national
transport demand model
16th April 2015
ConnectKaro, New Delhi1

2. Need for developing demand side
energy and emissions estimates
 Top-down estimates from supply side useful for
 Creating energy and emissions inventories
 Ex-post assessment of policy/tech. interventions
 Activity based bottom-up estimates help determine
 Underlying factors resulting in a certain level of
energy/emissions
 Ex-ante estimates of different interventions
 Present exercise showcases the outcomes of a
bottom-up transport demand and related energy
and emissions estimation modeling exercise
2

3. Objective of the exercise
Determining the present and
future demands of energy
by the transport sector in
India and identifying ways to
reduce its energy needs
under various scenarios
3

4. Energy demand for transport is an
outcome of transport demand, mode
and technology choice
1. How much do people and goods
travel
2. What modes do they use to travel
3. What fuel/technology is used to
drive these modes
4. How much energy do these modes
consume per unit of travel
5. What is the aggregate demand for
energy for transport
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5. Bottom-up transport demand
estimation
 Passenger
 Vehicle types
 Utilizations
 Occupancies
 Technologies
 Efficiencies
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Activity
Mode
Share
Intensity Fuel Mix
ASIF Framework
 Freight
 Vehicle types
 Utilizations
 Loadings
 Technologies
 Efficiencies

6. An example of the bottom up transport
demand and energy estimation
 Estimating passenger transport demand met by cars
 Total volume of registered cars
(-) life of vehicles
= total volume of on-road cars
(x) Daily utilization of cars (km)
(x) Fleet utilization – avg. percentage of cars being used
daily (%)
(x) Occupancy (Average no. of passengers)
= PASSENGER KILOMETERS generated on cars
 Segregating this number by vehicle fuel efficiencies
give the resulting fuel used, and thereby the energy
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7. Total
Transport
Passenger
Road
Cars/
Jeeps
Petrol
Diesel
CNG
LPG
xEVs
Taxis
Diesel
CNG
LPG
Three
Wheelers
Petrol
Diesel
LPG
CNG
Two
Wheelers
Petrol
Electric
Buses
Diesel
CNG
xEVs
Rail
Diesel
Electric
Air
Freight
Road
HCV
LCV
Rail
Diesel
Electric
Air
Multiplicity of modes and technologies
complicates the modeling exercise
7
Transport of passengers and goods using
inland waterways, coastal shipping and
pipelines is being taken up for the next
version of the tool

8. Model outcome
Estimates of transport demand and energy
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9. How much do people and goods travel
in India?
 Motorized mobility in
India 2011-12
 ~5,967 km/person (7,255
BPKM)
 1,604 BTKM
 Compares lowly to
international transport
demands
 UK 2011 - 14,247
km/person
 US 2011 – 28,500
km/person
 EU 2009 – 11,700
km/person
 Transport demand is
expected to continue to
grow rapidly
 Increased economic
activity
 Higher levels of
urbanization
 Improved access to
transport systems
 By 2046-47:
 Passenger: 18,978
km/person (32,342 BPKM)
 Freight: 16,653 BTKM
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10. 0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047
Growth in energy consumption by the
transport sector
Freight Passenger
Components of energy consumption in the
transport sector
7 times growth
in energy use
is expected
between 2012
and 2047 (6%
CAGR)
40%
60%
Freight Passenger
45%
55%
Freight Passenger
Energy shares in 2012
Energy shares in 2047
73
mtoe
523
mtoe
93%
5% 2%
ROAD RAIL AIR
94%
2%
4%
ROAD RAIL AIR
73
523 MTOE
2011-12
2046-47

11. What modes do people travel
on?
 As of 2011-12
 Most passenger travel happened on roads
 Railways occupied only 14 per cent of the total passenger
traffic
 Aviation saw a very rapid growth in the last decade – still
low share of traffic
 Road based public transport (bus/omni-buses) occupy
about 75 per cent of the total road traffic
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ROAD
85%
RAIL
14%
AIR
1%
BUS
73%
ONMI-
BUS
2%
CAR
7%
2W
13%
3W
3%TAXI
2%
Passenger transport shares in 2011-12

12. What fuel technology is used to drive
these passenger modes?
 As of 2011-12
 Road transport consumes almost only petroleum products
 Alternate fuel penetration is still very low and restricted to
few urban centers
 Half the railway traffic moves on diesel and the other half on
electric traction
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100%
77%
40%
18%
43%
96% 99% 99%
50%
2%
10%
3% 1% 1%2% 7% 2%
0%
50%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2W CAR 3W TAXI ONMI-BUS BUS RAIL
Share of passenger traffic on different fuel types within each mode
PETROL DIESEL CNG LPG ELECTRIC

13. The present and future passenger
transport energy consumption
37%
3%18%
18%
7%
9%
4%
4%
BUS
ONMI-BUS
CAR
2W
3W
TAXI
RAIL
AIR
15%
1%
38%
9%
13%
15%
1%
8%
Energy shares in 2012
Energy shares in 2047
0
100
200
300
400
2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047
BAU levels of passenger transport energy
consumption (mtoe)
• 73% of the present
passenger traffic moves on
buses and omni-buses
consuming 40% of the
energy
• Cars and Jeeps handle
only about 6% of the traffic
but consume over 18% of
the energy
By 2047
• Energy consumption by
personalized modes of
transport continue to increase
• Aviation is expected to drive
2.5% of the mobility -
consuming over 8% of the
energy of passenger transport
• Share of rail based transport
to marginally decline (14% to
12%)

14. Creating Energy Security
Scenarios
Various types of scenarios created for the
Indian Energy Security Scenarios 2047 tool

15. Methods of reducing energy demand
for passenger transport considered
Considered four possible ways of reducing the energy
demand for passenger transport
1. Reducing the total demand for passenger mobility
 Better planning and strategic urban development to cut
down travel
2. Shifting mobility to more energy efficient modes
 Mode shift from air and road to rail based transport
3. Increasing the share of road based public transport
 More urban bus services and introduction of transport
demand measures to reduce private vehicle use
4. Introduction of energy efficient road vehicles
 Increasing the energy efficiency of private road vehicles
by introduction of electric, hybrid and fuel cell vehicles
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16. Transport trajectories
considered for the IESS 2047
 Six different line levers considered for the transport sector
 4 passenger transport lines
 2 freight transport lines
 4 different levels under each lever
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17. Reducing levels of passenger
transport demand
 Four levels of passenger transport demand considered
 Level 1: Business as usual levels of demand
 Increased economic growth, increased access to transport
 Continuous increase in the annual distance travelled per person
 Level 2: Moderate effort (~10% demand reduction)
 Increase in the number of activity centers across the country
 Increasing urbanization leading to reduced migration trips
 A reduction of per capita mobility demands in smart cities
 Level 3: Dedicated effort (~20% demand reduction)
 Aggressive use of ITES applications reducing the demand for travel
 Corporate and industrial personnel travel planning
 Level 4: Herculean effort (~30% demand reduction)
 Herculean effort scenario, with incentive schemes to reduce commute trips
 Work – residence – recreation trips better organized to reduce travel demand
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18. Improving the share of the
railways in passenger mobility
 Trajectories visualized progressively increasing the share of railways
 Level 1: Business as usual mode shares
 Continuous increase in the share of personalized road vehicles
 Increasing energy intensity for passenger transport
 Level 2: Moderate effort
 Increased focus on rail based transport (metro, train-sets, rapid rail)
 Focus on increasing the share of railways
 Level 3: Dedicated effort
 Railway projects given top priority in planning – few HSR corridors and
RRTS across various urban centers
 Share of railways improves further
 Level 4: Herculean effort
 Metros and RRTS become commonplace across large urban centers
 HSR to complement air travel on longer distances across the country
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19. Other levers to reduce the
sector’s energy use
 Movement to public transport and efficient vehicles
 Better urban designs and plans allowing increased use of public
transport
 Increased of efficient vehicles on electric and hybrid traction
 Freight transport demand reduction
 Improved use of logistic planning in freight mobility to reduce
redundant freight movements
 Growth of industrial clusters thereby allowing combined
movement of similar traffic
 Improved freight transport mode choice
 Incentivize the movement of freight from road to rail
 Improved last mile connectivity for railway services
 Railways moves from being a mobility provider to a complete
transporter
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20. Large reductions in energy
possible using all the levers
 About 43% reduction possible from the 2047 energy
consumption levels
 Combined options: Demand reduction, mode
choice, public vehicles, efficient electric vehicles
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43% reduction

21. Limitations, lessons learnt
and the way forward
Outlining the issues for building activity based
transport sector energy and emissions estimation
models
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22. Limitations of the activity based energy
estimation methodology
Methodology useful for a closed system
such as the domestic transport sector
Difficult to implement under porous
systems such as states or cities/urban
centers
 Difficult to determine appropriate boundary
conditions for non-stationary sector like
transport
Requires a large number of data items
to increase the robustness of the model
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23. Lessons learnt from developing a transport
demand and energy estimation model
 Useful methodology for estimating impacts of
mode and technology choice changes at a
macro-national level
 Tool is easily customizable to evaluate the
impacts of various kinds of policies/programs
 Acute limitation in the availability of data
related to transport use in India
 Identified a very long list of data items that
could be useful for increasing the robustness
of the model
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24. Way forward
 Increase the use of such scientific methods in
making infrastructure investment choices
 Possible to incorporate costs and pricing
 Fine tune methodology to also develop state,
regional and city level energy emissions
transport models
 Start incentivizing different transport related
agencies for collecting various data items
 Need to put in place systems to regularly
collect transport activity related data at all
levels (urban, rural, intercity)
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25. THANK YOU
For more information on
Transport Modeling exercise: sarbojit.pal@teri.res.in
India Energy Security Scenarios 2047: http://indiaenergy.gov.in/
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