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How Should the Region Respond to an Unending
Trade War?
Amalia Adininggar Widyasanti, PhD
Senior Advisor to the Minister of National Development Planning for Economic Synergy and Financing
Multiple Trade Wars are happening…
First	round	of	trade	war	
initiated	by	increase	of	
import	tariff	for	certain	
products	from	any	
country…..	 26	January	2018	
Increase	in	import	tariff	
of	washing	machines	
(20%)	and	solar	panels	
(30%)
Initial	Trump	Policies	to	
protect	its	market
8	Maret 2018
Increase	in	import	tariff	
of	Steels	(25%)	and	
Aluminum	(10%)
.
.
.
.
These	were	followed	by	retaliation	
policies	from	other	countries
6	July	2018:	Trump	
imposed	25%	tariff	for	
imported	products	from	
China,	as	many	as	818	
product	lines,	with	a	
valued	of	USD	34	billion
Products	affected:
aerospace,	information	
and	communications	
technology,	robotics,	
industrial	machinery,	new	
materials,	and	
automobiles
Second	round	of	trade	war	
was	implemented	through	
increasing	of	import	tariff	
for	Chinese	products
Multiple Trade Wars are happening…
• US imposed 25% tariff to imports from China with a value of US$200 billion, started
from 10 May 2019.
•Products affected: internet modem, router, data transmission tools, printer circuit
board, furniture, lightening, automotive spare parts, vacuum cleaner, as well as other
building materials (5700 products)
•China announced tariff increase as much as 5%-25% for made in USA products since 1 Juni
2019.
•Products affected, for example: sorghum, soybean, meat, aeroplane, and cars.
Third	round	of	trade	war	was	implemented	through	
increasing	of	import	tariff	for	Chinese	products
4
Multiple Trade Wars are happening…….
In recent weeks, the tension between US and China is
moving up into the technology …..
US	put	Huawei	into	a	black	list,	by	prohibiting	US	companies	to	
do	business	with	Huawei since June 2019.
China is considering to limit its exports of rare earth to US,
which is used as input materials for producing iPhone and
electric cars
Trump	declared	national	
emergency	in	technology
Fourth	round	of	Trade	Wars
Mexico
5
Retaliation	is	happening	too….
6 July 2018, Mexico imposed tariff of 25% on
pork, in which its tariff in June was 20%.
European	Union
In 22 June 2018, EU imposed tariff of 25% on 180
imported products from US (a value of $3.4
billion), such as: motor vehicles, jeans, ships,
whiskey, and agricultural products
China Russia
7 July 2018, China imposed tariff of 25% on 545
jenis imported products from US, such as: cars,
soybean, and lobster ($34 billion).
In 6 July 2018, Russia imposed tariff of 25%-
40% to imported products from US, such as:
construction tools and energy related
products.
Canada
In 7 July 2018, Canada imposed tariff of 10% for
imported products from US, with a value of $ 12.5
billion. Products affected: chocolate, chilli sauce, yogurt,
meat, coffee, orange juice, and maple syrup.
The	Trend	of	Protectionism	is	rising
6
Source:	Global	Trade	Alert
1325
1232 1217
1458
1520
1408 1358
1214
1443
1634
388
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Total	Number	of	New	Protective	Interventions	in	Each	Year
SECTORS	MOSTLY	AFFECTED
The	Trend	of	Protectionism	is	rising
7
Countries	Contributing	to	Harmful	Interventions Countries	Affected	by	Harmful	Interventions
8
The Impact of New Trade Agenda
Disclaimer:	Views	and	opinions	expressed	in	this	paper	are	the	author’s	own	and	not	reflected	
or	represented	the	institution	policy	and	decision.
Full Paper can be downloaded at:
9
https://www.bi.go.id/en/publikasi/jurnal-
ekonomi/Pages/BEMP-Volume-20-Number-2,-October-
2017.aspx
https://www.gtap.agecon.p
urdue.edu/access_member
/resources/res_display.asp?
recordID=5435
Economic Growth vs Trade Growth
-30,0
-20,0
-10,0
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
-2,0
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Figure	1.	Dynamics	of	Global	Economic	Growth	
and	Global	Trade	Growth
GDP	Growth
the	fall	of	
commodity	
prices
Asian
economic	
crisis
Source: Oxford Economics and Trademap (authors’ modification)
Historically,	there	is	a	
close	link	between	
Economic	Growth	and	
Trade	Growth
10
The New Trade Pattern ……
Ratio	of	world	merchandise	trade	volume	growth	to	world	
real	GDP	growth,	1981-2016
Source: adopted from Word Trade Report 2017, WTO
• There	are	some	changes	in	global	trade	
pattern
• The	relationship	between	global	growth	
and	global	trade	is	getting	weaker
• It	is	tended	that	policymakers	attempt	to	
address	higher	restrictions	on	imports.	In	
this	situation,	trade	cannot	help	boost	
growth	and	may	even	constitute	a	drag	on	
the	recovery.
11
The Global Trade Agenda….
Source: Trademap (modified by author)
• Trump’s	presidency	and	his	trade	agenda	has	added	to	higher	uncertainties	to	the	global	trade.	
• He	pledged	to	impose	tariff	on	Chinese	imports	as	much	as	45%	and	on	goods	imported	from	Mexico	as	much	as	35%
• In	early	April	2017,	Trump	announced	the	16	countries	that	were	put	in	his	trade	hit	list.	
[CELLRANG
E],	21,4%[CELLRANGE],	6,0%
[CELLRANGE],	5,2%
[CELLRAN
GE],	13,2%
[CELLRANGE],	2,0%
[CELLRANGE],	1,9%
[CELLRANGE],	3,2%
[CELLRANGE],	2,1%
[CELLRANGE],	1,7%
[CELLRANGE],	12,6%
[CELLRANGE],	0,9%
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Share	to	US	Imports	and	Average	Growth	of	US	
Imports	from	Each	Country
-365,9 -72,0
-67,2
-65,9
-36,1
-33,6
-29,8
-29,7
-26,0
-25,5
-19,9
-17,4
-15,4
-14,7
-14,3
-14,1
-400,0 -350,0 -300,0 -250,0 -200,0 -150,0 -100,0 -50,0 0,0
China
Japan
Germany
Mexico
Ireland
Viet	Nam
Italy
Korea
India
Malaysia
Thailand
Canada
France
Taipei
Switzerland
Indonesia
US	Trade	Deficits	with	16	Main	Import	Sources	
(USD	Billion)
12
Research Objective
This	paper	studies	the	possible	impact	of	new	trade	agenda	into	the	Indonesian	and	Japanese	
economy	that	may	occur	through	trade	channels;	and	provides	some	policy	recommendation	to	
mitigate	such	global	risk	for	Indonesian	and	Japanese	economy.	
(i) Trump	Trade	Agenda	when	implementing	45	and	35	
percent	tariff	to	China	and	Mexico;	
(ii) Trade	Hit	List	when	imposing	tariff	to	the	16	countries	in	
the	trade	hit	list.	Impacts	of	both	scenarios	are	examined	
in	short	run	and	long	run.	
Two	scenarios	of	new	trade	agenda:	
13
Results 1:
Trump Trade Agenda
(45 percent import tariff for China and 35 percent import tariff for Mexico)
Short	Run Long	Run
Change	in	GDP	(%)
1	Indonesia 0.0 0.3
2	EU_25 0.0 0.1
3	Japan 0.0 0.1
4	USA -0.4 -0.7
5	China -0.5 -2.7
6	Mexico -0.8 -12.1
7	RestofASEAN 0.1 0.7
8	RestofASIA 0.0 0.2
9	RestofWorld 0.0 0.3
TOTAL	WORLD 0.0 -0.2
Change	in	Welfare	(EV)
Total	Welfare	(World) -54000.3 -133807.1
SHORT	RUN:
• The	Trade	Agenda	does	not	significantly	
effect	the	global	economy	nor	Indonesian	
and	Japanese	economy	in	the	short	run.
• Countries	that	will	be	worse-off	in	the	
short	run	from	the	trade	agenda	is	USA,	
China	and	Mexico
LONG	RUN:
The	Trade	agenda	will	create	a	worse-off	to	the	
global	economy,	as	the	world	GDP	will	be	
declining	and	the	total	welfare	loss	of	the	global	
economy	will	be	higher.	
14
18,4%
81,0%
11,2%
20,2%
China Mexico Indonesia Japan
Share	of		Country’s	Exports	to	
USA
Country Market	Concentration	Index	
(2015)
China 0.07
Mexico 0.55
Indonesia 0.06
Japan 0.09
Results 1:
Trump Trade Agenda
(45 percent import tariff for China and 35 percent import tariff for Mexico)
Mexico	relies	much	on	the	US	market	for	its	exports.	Around	81	
percent	of	its	exports	are	directed	to	US.	The	high	dependency	
of	Mexico	on	the	US	market	has	made	it	very	vulnerable	to	any	
shock	from	the	US	economy
15
Results	1:
Trump	Trade	Agenda	
(45	percent	import	tariff	for	China	and	35	percent	import	tariff	for	Mexico)
Country	 Short	Run	 Long	Run	
	Indonesia	 298.2	 49.0	
	Japan	 3676.3	 438.0	
	USA	 -2605.5	 2626.8	
	China	 -16538.4	 -5435.5	
	Mexico	 -4286.5	 586.8	
Countries
Capital	Stocks Terms	of	Trade
Short	Run Long	Run Short	Run Long	Run
1	Indonesia 0 0.6 0.4 0.3
3	Japan 0 0.3 0.7 0.8
4	USA 0 -1.1 1.8 1.7
5	China 0 -4.8 -3.3 -3.1
6	Mexico 0 -20.3 -13.7 -12.7
• Eventhough,	US	trade	balance	is	positive	in	the	long	
run	(but	not	in	the	short	run),	but	Trump’s	trade	
agenda	will	definitely	hurt	the	economy	of	China,	
Mexico,	and	USA	in	the	long-run
• Again,	Mexico	will	suffer	most	from	the	trade	
agenda	in	the	long	run
Change	in	Trade	Balance	of	Some	Countries	
in	Short	Run	and	Long	Run
Percentage	Change	of	Capital	Stock	in	Each	Country	in	the	Long	Run
For	Indonesia	and	Japan,	the	market	opportunities	created	
from	trade	diversion	and	trade	creation	effects	can		generate	a	
capital	accumulation	in	the	long	run,	and	provide	a	positive	
growth	of	the	long	run.	
16
Result 2:
Trade Hit List
(15 percent import tariff for countries in the trade hit list)
• The trade hit list agenda will not give any significant effect
to the global GDP in the short run, including Indonesia and
Japan
• However,	the	trade	hit	list	agenda	will	disadvantage	the	
global	economy	and	all	countries	in	the	trade	hit	list	for	the	
long	run.	
Country Short	Run Long	Run
GDP
Invest
ment GDP
Capital	
Stock
1	Indonesia 0.0 -0.5 -0.6 -1.2
2	Germany 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -1.1
3	Japan 0.0 -0.4 -0.4 -0.9
4	USA -0.2 -0.5 -0.7 -2.0
5	China -0.1 -0.7 -0.9 -1.8
6	Mexico -0.3 -0.4 -5.5 -9.5
7	Ireland -0.3 -0.6 -2.4 -3.8
18	RestofWorld 0.0 -0.5 0.1 0.2
Total	World 0.0 -0.5 -0.5 -1.2
When Indonesia and Japan get trade restriction from the US,
its export to US will decline. This will be transmitted to the
Indonesian and Japan economy through trade channel,
affecting private demand to go down. When private demand
goes down, it will affect imports to decline and the industrial
outputs will also be affected.
17
Impact	of	Trade	War
18
WTO Study suggests that
Trade Wars will cause :
Worst	scenario,	in	2020:
*	Decrease	from	the	baseline	projection
World	
GDP 2%* 17%*Global	
Trade
This	is	similar	to	the	finansial crisis	condition	in	2009:
World	
GDP 2% 12%Global
Trade
1. Unuseful international	tariff	aggreement
2. Every	country	will	apply	unilateral	tariff
Sumber	:	https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/pres19_e/pr837_e.pdf
19
Impact of Trade War
Increasing	of	global	uncertainties
U.S.-China	tariffs,	that	have	been	both	
implemented	and	proposed,	could	cut	
global	economic	output	by	0.5%	in	2020
Taxing	all	trade	between	the	world’s	two	
largest	economies	would	cause	some	$455	
billion	in	gross	domestic	product	to	evaporate
International Monetary Fund Managing
Director Christine Lagarde:
20
Nouriel Roubini,	is	a	professor	at	NYU’s	Stern	School	of	Business	and	was	senior	economist	for	
international	affairs	in	the	Clinton	White	House’s	Council	of	Economic	Advisers.	He	has	worked	for	the	
IMF,	the	US	Federal	Reserve	and	the	World	Bank.
Trade Channels to Growth
Trade
Channel	1:
Capital	accummulation
Channel	2:
Innovation	Incentives
(market	size,	competition,	and	knowledge	
spillovers)
Channel	3:
Institutional	Framework
Growth
Source: WTO (modified by Author)
21
22
Trade of Electronic Goods	is exposed to	a	deep	Global	Supply	Chain:
Trum untuk	produk	elektronik akan	mengganggu ekspor	elektronik global
Vietnam China
USA
16,3%
13,2%
USD	13,0	M
USD	10,5	M
16,8%
USD	93,2	M
Trade	Pattern	of	Electronic	Goods
(HS	85),	2016
Indonesia Singapore	
19,1%
USD	1,6	M
15,1%
USD	1,2	M
16,5%
USD	18,9	M 6,3%
USD	7,3	M
Thailand
17,4	%
USD	5,2	M
9,7	%
USD	2,9	M
Malaysia
17,8%
USD	10,4	M
15,0%
USD	8,7	M
15,9%
USD	9,3	M
China	is the hub of electronics trade
in the global market
Sumber:	TradeMap,	diolah
23
What is in reality?
Mexico dan Vietnam are gaining …
Mexico	and	Vietnam	is	now	
preferred	by	the	investors
Trade	diversion	are	from	China	
to	Mexico
24
Trade Diversion to Vietnam…
….due	to	its	competitive	advantages	….	Vietnamese	products	can	substitute	Chinese	products
What is important?
The	new	trade	agenda	– represented	by	Trade	Trump	Agenda	and	Trade	Hit	List	Agenda	-- will	create	
disadvantages	to	global	economy	in	general,	as	well	as	to	Indonesian	and	Japanese	economy.	The	new	trade	agenda	will	be	
transmitted	to	other	countries	economy	through	trade	channels.	
25
Indonesia:
1. Indonesia	should	focus	on	attracting	more	investment	to	induce	capital	accumulation	in	the	long	
term,	as	the	simulation	results	show	that	capital	accumulation	can	support	the	long	term	growth	and	
mitigate	the	global	risks.	
2. Furthermore,	increasing	total	factor	productivity	can	be	another	focus	of	Indonesia,	such	as:	
intensifying	infrastructure	development,	enhancing	regulatory	efficiencies	in	particular	for	businesses,	
as	well	as	focusing	on	re-industrialization.
Policy Recommendation
26
Regional:	
1. Regional	cooperation	is	the	key	to	reduce	the	risks	of	Trade	War	to	the	regional	economy.	
ASEAN	and	RCEP	will	be	a	good	vehicle	to	enhance	cooperation	for	minimizing	the	global	risks.
2. Policy	coherence	in	regional	economy	is	a	must.	A	country	cannot	be	asked	to	liberalize	the	
markets,	while	the	other	countries	are	having	inward-looking	policies.
3. Modified	regional	value	chains	that	is	inline	with	the	technology	advancement.	The	trend	of	
on-shoring	has	limited	the	development	of	regional	value	chains.
IMPORTANT NOTE
Long-run anticipative policies is important to
reduce the risks from the VUCA world
It’s better to prepare than to cure it
27
28
Indonesia	continuously	open	up	its	
investment	regime
Indonesia’s	becoming	more	competitive
29
2018 2019
32
44
2017 2018
45/140
47/135 • Indonesia	is	ranked 45th	
among	140	countries,	up	2	
places	from	2017
• Its	excels	in	macroeconomic	
stability,	market	size	and	
business	dynamics	indicator	
among	East	Asia	and	Pacific	
region
• Indonesia	is	ranked 32nd	
among	63	countries,	up	11	
places	from	2018
• This	accomplishment	notably	
due	to	improvements	in:	
• Government	efficiency
• Infrastructure
• Business	conditions
The	Global	Competitiveness	Index	(WEF) IMD	World	Competitiveness	Ranking	(IMD)
Indonesia	Regulatory	on	FDI	Has	Become	Less	Restrictive
30
FDI	restrictiveness	is	an	index	gauging	the	restrictiveness	of	a	country’s	foreign	direct	
investment	(FDI)	rules	by	looking	at	four	main	types	of	restrictions:	foreign	equity	
restrictions;	discriminatory	screening	or	approval	mechanisms;	restrictions	on	key	
foreign	personnel	and	operational	restrictions.	
FDI	Regulatory	Index	2018
Sectors Indonesia OECD	Average
Media 0,798	 0,154	
Business	Services 0,579	 0,063	
Primary	Sector 0,457	 0,095	
Transportation 0,426	 0,210	
Distribution	(Trade) 0,365	 0,018	
Telecommunications 0,260	 0,083	
Financial	Services 0,167	 0,032	
Electricity 0,107 0,116	
Manufacturing 0,065	 0,018	
Overall	 0,313	 0,065	
0,331
0,371
0,417
0,445 0,459
Indonesia
Vietnam
Phillipines
Malaysia
China	(Ppl	Rep.of)
2006
0,321
0,417 0,422
0,442 0,447
Indonesia
Phillipines
China	(Ppl	Rep.of)
Myanmar
Saudi	Arabia
2013
0,252 0,257
0,313
0,372 0,374
Malaysia
Rusia
Indonesia
Saudi	Arabia
Phillipines
2018
FDI	Regulatory	Restrictiveness	Index	(FDI	Index)
Source	:	OECD
5 5 3
0	=	closed		1	=	open	
Indonesia’s	rules	on	foreign	direct	investment	become	
less	restrictive	compared	to	the	past	5	years and	its	
rank	on	FDI	Restrictiveness	index	climb	up from	5	to	3	
Almost	all	the	sectors in	Indonesia	are	more	open	to	FDI	
compared	to	OECD’s	countries	average	with	Media	
being	the	most	open	one
Indonesia’s	economy	still	believed	to	remain	robust	by	international	community	
amid	the	weakening	global	economy	tension,	as	reflected	from	its	sovereign	rating
31
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
S&P Moody's Fitch
BB-/Ba3
BB/Ba2
BB+/Ba1
BBB-/Baa3
BBB/Baa2
Indonesia		Foreign	Currency	Long	Term	Debt	Rating
Investment	
grade	
rating
BBB
BBB
Moody’s	(13	April	2018)
An	increasingly	credible	and	effective	policy	framework	conducive	
to	macroeconomic	stability	together	with	a	build-up	of	financial	
buffers,	prudent	fiscal	and	monetary	policy
Standard	and	Poor’s	(31	May	2019)
S&P	had	raised	Indonesia’s	sovereign	credit	rating	to	‘BBB’	citing	the	
country’s	strong	economic	growth	prospects	and	supportive	policy	
dynamics
BBB
Japan	Credit	Rating	Agency	(26	April	2019)
JCRA	revised	its	outlook	and	highlighted	factors	of	the	changes	from	
the	government	of	Indonesia,	namely:
1. formulated	and	promoted	large	scale	infrastructure		
development	plan	to	eliminate	infrastructure	shortage	
2. Succeeded	in	expanding	infrastructure	and	human	capital	
expenditures,	
3. the	possibility	of	an	enhanced	economic	growth	through	
continued	reform	initiatives
BBB
Moody’s	(14	March	2019)
Fitch	Ratings	released	Indonesia's	debt	rating	remained	in	BBB	
position	with	a	stable	outlook
Indonesia	are	Viewed	as	a	Promising	
Overseas	Business	Prospect		
32
Source	:	JBIC
Indonesia’s	Top	Reasons	as	a	Promising	Countries	:
1. Future	growth	of	potential	local	market
2. Current	size	of	local	market
3. Inexpensive	source	of	labor
4. Supply	base	for	assemblers
5. Concentration	of	Industry
China
India
Thailand
Indonesia
1
2
3
4
5
Vietnam
Promising	
Countries/Regions	over	
the	Medium	Terms
Survey	Report	on	Overseas	Business	Operations	2018	published	by	Japan	
Bank	for	International	Cooperation	(JBIC), ranked	Indonesia	as	the	5th most	
promising	country	over	the	medium	term
The	survey	conducted	in	order	to	research	and	analyze	the	current	status	
and	future	prospects	for	the	overseas	business	development	of	the	
Japanese	manufacturing	industry
33
The	government	provide	incentives	
for	business	to	promote	investment	
opportunities
Indonesia	Continues	to	Relax		the	Negative	Investment	List
34
Relaxation	on	Foreign	
Investment’s	Share	
(Become	100%	since	2016)
2014’s	DNI
• Cold	Storage	(33%)
• Sport	Center	(49%)
• Film	production	Lab	(49%)
• Crumb	Rubber	(49%)
• Restaurant	(51%)
• Medicinal	raw	material	(85%)
• Toll	Road	Business	(95%)
• Establishment	of	
Telecommunication	Equipment	
Testing	Institutions	(95%)
Removal	of	Recommendation
• Hotels	(Non-Stars,	One-Star,	Two-
Stars)	
• Motel;	Recreation,
• Arts	and	Entertainment	Business;	
• Billiards,
• Bowling	and	Golf	Courses.
Opening		20	Business	Fields	
for	Foreigners
• Health	support	services	(67	%)
• Transportation	of	people	by	land	
(49%);
• The	film	industry	including	film	
circulation	(100%))	
• Installation	of	high/extra	high	
power	utilization	(49%))
Tax	Holiday
• Reduction of corporate income tax by
100%
• Minimum investment: IDR 100 Billion, but
only get 50% reduction
• Up to 20 tax years
• 18 pioneer industries
• Can be harmonized with the
implementation of Online Single
Submission (OSS)
Indonesia	Provides	Various	Incentives	for	Investment
35
Fiscal	Incentives
As of 2016, 324 regulations have been
revoked while 75 have been revised
Reducing	Regulatory	and
Licensing	Burden	
Establishment of SEZs throughout
Indonesia to reduce the logistics cost
and facilitate trade
Improvement	in	Infrastructure
(Electricity,	Transportation,	Trade,	and	Other	Logistics)
Indonesia provides a one-stop
licensing service through Pusat
Pelayanan Terpadu Satu Pintu
Firms investing IDR 100 billion can
obtain a business permit/license
within 3 hours
Online Single Submission (OSS)
business licensing system further
improves the electronic system of
registration and licensing
The government has expedited land
acquisition and certification
Improvement in access to electricity
in the country, especially for
industries that rely on heavy
machinery and steady supply of
electricity
The PLB has facilitated trade while
generating much needed revenue
Tax	Allowance
• A net	income	reduction	of	30%	
• Accelerated	depreciation	and	
amortization
• imposition	of	income	tax	on	dividends	to	
foreign	taxpayers	by	10%
• Compensation	for	losses	that	are	longer	
than	5	years	but	not	more	than	10	years
Indonesia’s	Ranking	in	the	World	Bank’s	Ease	of	Doing	
Business	Index
36
135
123 122
115
126 129 128
120 120
106
91
72 73
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Notes:	Lower	values	indicate	a	higher	ranking.	Yearly	rankings	may	not	be	comparable	due	to	changes	in	the	survey's	methodology, except	for	the	period	2015–2018	when	
the	rankings	used	the	same	methodology.
Source:	World	Bank	(2019).
Given	these	incentives,	Indonesia	has	also	moved	up	in	the	
World	Bank’s	ease	of	doing	business	ranking
37
THANK	YOU
38
Appendixes
Indonesia	Provides	Many	Incentives	for	Investment
39
Fiscal	Incentives
The	process	of	granting	tax	holiday	facilities	can	be	harmonized	with	the	implementation	of	Online	Single	Submission	(OSS).
Tax	Holiday
5 – 10 years
Indonesia	Provides	Many	Incentives	for	Investment
40
Fiscal	Incentives
Tax	Holiday
PMK	130/2011	
Reduction of corporate
income tax by 100%
PMK	159/2015	
Reduction of corporate income tax
by 10%-100%
PMK	35/2018	
Reduction of corporate income tax by 100%
Regulation
Facility
Time	Period
5- 15 tax years, or up to 20 tax
years with the discretion of
minister of finance
Investment value:
• IDR 500 billion up to IDR 1 Trillion ( 5 tax years)
• IDR 1 Trillion up to IDR 5 Trillion (7 tax years)
• IDR 5 Trillion up to IDR 15 Trillion (10 tax years)
• IDR 15 Trillion up to IDR 30 Trillion ( 15 tax years)
• ≥ IDR 30 Trillion (20 tax years)
Additional	time	
period
Additional reduction in
corporate income tax by
50% for the next 2 years
Additional reduction in corporate income tax by
50% for the next 2 years
5 industries
IDR 1 Trillion IDR 1 Trillion (except
communication industry, IDR 500
Billion)
IDR 500 BillionMinimum	
Investment
Pioneer	Industries	
Coverage
8 industries 17 industries
PMK	150/2018	(NEW)	
Reduction of corporate income tax by 100%
Investment value:
• IDR 100 billion up to IDR 500 billion (5 tax years,
50% reduction)
• IDR 500 billion up to IDR 1 Trillion ( 5 tax years)
• IDR 1 Trillion up to IDR 5 Trillion (7 tax years)
• IDR 5 Trillion up to IDR 15 Trillion (10 tax years)
• IDR 15 Trillion up to IDR 30 Trillion ( 15 tax years)
• ≥ IDR 30 Trillion (20 tax years)
Additional reduction in corporate income tax by
50% for the next 2 years
IDR 500 Billion
18 industries -> adding more industries
Facility
Time	Period
Additional	time	
period
• Expansion of the business sector that can be given tax holiday facilities become 18 pioneer industries or 169 KBLI (ISIC)
• Minimum investment to get tax holiday: IDR 500 billion
Indonesia	Provides	Many	Incentives	for	Investment
41
Fiscal	Incentives
Tax	Allowance
Indonesia	Provides	Many	Incentives	for	Investment
42
Reducing	Regulatory	and	Licensing	Burden	
First reform package—aimed at reducing regulatory and licensing burden and at
improving Indonesia’s competitiveness—reflects the priorities of the new
administration when it took office. Indeed, President Jokowi ordered a 50% reduction
in regulations by 2019, which directly impacted about 20 ministries and
implementing agencies.
The	simplification	of	regulations	focused	on	a	few	key	principles	
• Make	it	easier	to	register	and	obtain	a	license	to	operate	a	business	improve	
public	services	to	help	businesses	
• Provide	legal	certainty	
• Accelerate	dispute	resolution	processes
• Introduce	new	regulations	to	reflect	the	changing	realities	of	operating	a	business	
in	Indonesia
As	of	2016,	324	regulations	have	been	revoked	
while	75	have	been	revised
• The PTSP Pusat, inaugurated at BKPM on 26 January 2015, endeavors to make
business registration and licensing more efficient and accessible to businesses.
• The service center covers all licensing and non-licensing services of the
government and regional governments, and accommodates integration between
institutions and regions, thereby making the licensing process easier and
eliminating the problem of fragmented standards for each region.
Indonesia	provides	a	one-stop	licensing	service	through	
Pusat	Pelayanan Terpadu Satu	Pintu
• As	part	of	the	introduction	of	PTSP	Pusat,	investors	with	a	minimum	investment	of	
IDR	100	billion	or	a	workforce	of	more	than	1,000	people	can	obtain	their	initial	
permits	within	3	hours	and	start	their	business	activities	shortly	afterward.
• The	3-hour	service	is	given	to	companies	that	have	already	obtained	a	license	and	
want	to	expand	capacity.	
• BKPM	also	serves	companies	that	supply	raw	materials	to	core	companies	that	get	
the	3-hour	service.
Firms	investing	IDR	100	billion	can	obtain	a	business	permit/license	
within	3	hours
• Facilitates	business	licensing	through	an	integrated	electronic	system	that	
synchronizes	various	licensing	permits	in	the	country.	
• Expected	to	further	simplify	the	process	of	obtaining	business	permits	as	several	
key	permits	(location,	environmental,	and	building	permits)	can	be	obtained	an	
hour	after	submitting	all	required	data	in	the	OSS.
Online	Single	Submission	(OSS)	business	licensing	system	further	
improves	the	electronic	system	of	registration	and	licensing
The government has embarked on innovations such as adding working days and time
to facilitate the process of land registration and certification, opening more outlets to
provide registration and certification services, and introducing electronic registration
systems.
The	government	has	expedited	land	acquisition	and	certification
Indonesia	Provides	Many	Incentives	for	Investment
43
Improving	Infrastructure—Electricity,	Transport,	Trade,	and	Other	Logistics
First reform package—aimed at reducing regulatory and licensing burden and at
improving Indonesia’s competitiveness—reflects the priorities of the new
administration when it took office. Indeed, President Jokowi ordered a 50% reduction
in regulations by 2019, which directly impacted about 20 ministries and
implementing agencies.
The	simplification	of	regulations	focused	on	a	few	key	principles	
• Make	it	easier	to	register	and	obtain	a	license	to	operate	a	business	improve	
public	services	to	help	businesses	
• Provide	legal	certainty	
• Accelerate	dispute	resolution	processes
• Introduce	new	regulations	to	reflect	the	changing	realities	of	operating	a	business	
in	Indonesia
Establishment	of	SEZs	throughout	Indonesia	to	reduce	the	logistics	cost	
and	facilitate	trade
• The installed electricity capacity in Indonesia reached 53 gigawatts in 2015, with sold energy reaching 220 terawatt-hours. The current electrification ratio is 95.4% and is
expected to increase to 99% by 2019.
• Electricity consumed between 23:00 and 08:00 is supplied at a discount of up to 30%. The government also provides deferment and discounts for firms that face cash flow
difficulties to pay for electricity consumption.
Improvement	in	access	to	electricity	in	the	country,	especially	for	industries	that	rely	on	heavy	machinery	and	steady	supply of electricity
• In April 2017, the value of goods stored in the PLB warehouse was recorded at IDR
1.16 trillion from 20 international suppliers, 34 international distributors, and 97
local distribution companies.
• Contributed to state revenues with an import duty amounting to IDR 10.28 billion,
Article 22 import tax amounting to IDR 27.13 billion, and import VAT of IDR 120.09
billion.
• The average lead time to import of 1.8 days was much faster than normal for
imports in general.
• Decreasing	dwell	time	(idle	time	when	goods	stay	in	the	port)	by	transferring	
several	activities	in	the	preclearance	and	custom	clearance	stages	from	the	port	to	
PLB.
The	PLB	has	facilitated	trade	while	generating	much	needed	revenue

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How Should the Region Respond to an Unending Trade War?

  • 1. How Should the Region Respond to an Unending Trade War? Amalia Adininggar Widyasanti, PhD Senior Advisor to the Minister of National Development Planning for Economic Synergy and Financing
  • 2. Multiple Trade Wars are happening… First round of trade war initiated by increase of import tariff for certain products from any country….. 26 January 2018 Increase in import tariff of washing machines (20%) and solar panels (30%) Initial Trump Policies to protect its market 8 Maret 2018 Increase in import tariff of Steels (25%) and Aluminum (10%) . . . . These were followed by retaliation policies from other countries 6 July 2018: Trump imposed 25% tariff for imported products from China, as many as 818 product lines, with a valued of USD 34 billion Products affected: aerospace, information and communications technology, robotics, industrial machinery, new materials, and automobiles Second round of trade war was implemented through increasing of import tariff for Chinese products
  • 3. Multiple Trade Wars are happening… • US imposed 25% tariff to imports from China with a value of US$200 billion, started from 10 May 2019. •Products affected: internet modem, router, data transmission tools, printer circuit board, furniture, lightening, automotive spare parts, vacuum cleaner, as well as other building materials (5700 products) •China announced tariff increase as much as 5%-25% for made in USA products since 1 Juni 2019. •Products affected, for example: sorghum, soybean, meat, aeroplane, and cars. Third round of trade war was implemented through increasing of import tariff for Chinese products
  • 4. 4 Multiple Trade Wars are happening……. In recent weeks, the tension between US and China is moving up into the technology ….. US put Huawei into a black list, by prohibiting US companies to do business with Huawei since June 2019. China is considering to limit its exports of rare earth to US, which is used as input materials for producing iPhone and electric cars Trump declared national emergency in technology Fourth round of Trade Wars
  • 5. Mexico 5 Retaliation is happening too…. 6 July 2018, Mexico imposed tariff of 25% on pork, in which its tariff in June was 20%. European Union In 22 June 2018, EU imposed tariff of 25% on 180 imported products from US (a value of $3.4 billion), such as: motor vehicles, jeans, ships, whiskey, and agricultural products China Russia 7 July 2018, China imposed tariff of 25% on 545 jenis imported products from US, such as: cars, soybean, and lobster ($34 billion). In 6 July 2018, Russia imposed tariff of 25%- 40% to imported products from US, such as: construction tools and energy related products. Canada In 7 July 2018, Canada imposed tariff of 10% for imported products from US, with a value of $ 12.5 billion. Products affected: chocolate, chilli sauce, yogurt, meat, coffee, orange juice, and maple syrup.
  • 6. The Trend of Protectionism is rising 6 Source: Global Trade Alert 1325 1232 1217 1458 1520 1408 1358 1214 1443 1634 388 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Total Number of New Protective Interventions in Each Year SECTORS MOSTLY AFFECTED
  • 8. 8 The Impact of New Trade Agenda Disclaimer: Views and opinions expressed in this paper are the author’s own and not reflected or represented the institution policy and decision.
  • 9. Full Paper can be downloaded at: 9 https://www.bi.go.id/en/publikasi/jurnal- ekonomi/Pages/BEMP-Volume-20-Number-2,-October- 2017.aspx https://www.gtap.agecon.p urdue.edu/access_member /resources/res_display.asp? recordID=5435
  • 10. Economic Growth vs Trade Growth -30,0 -20,0 -10,0 0,0 10,0 20,0 30,0 -2,0 0,0 2,0 4,0 6,0 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Figure 1. Dynamics of Global Economic Growth and Global Trade Growth GDP Growth the fall of commodity prices Asian economic crisis Source: Oxford Economics and Trademap (authors’ modification) Historically, there is a close link between Economic Growth and Trade Growth 10
  • 11. The New Trade Pattern …… Ratio of world merchandise trade volume growth to world real GDP growth, 1981-2016 Source: adopted from Word Trade Report 2017, WTO • There are some changes in global trade pattern • The relationship between global growth and global trade is getting weaker • It is tended that policymakers attempt to address higher restrictions on imports. In this situation, trade cannot help boost growth and may even constitute a drag on the recovery. 11
  • 12. The Global Trade Agenda…. Source: Trademap (modified by author) • Trump’s presidency and his trade agenda has added to higher uncertainties to the global trade. • He pledged to impose tariff on Chinese imports as much as 45% and on goods imported from Mexico as much as 35% • In early April 2017, Trump announced the 16 countries that were put in his trade hit list. [CELLRANG E], 21,4%[CELLRANGE], 6,0% [CELLRANGE], 5,2% [CELLRAN GE], 13,2% [CELLRANGE], 2,0% [CELLRANGE], 1,9% [CELLRANGE], 3,2% [CELLRANGE], 2,1% [CELLRANGE], 1,7% [CELLRANGE], 12,6% [CELLRANGE], 0,9% -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 Share to US Imports and Average Growth of US Imports from Each Country -365,9 -72,0 -67,2 -65,9 -36,1 -33,6 -29,8 -29,7 -26,0 -25,5 -19,9 -17,4 -15,4 -14,7 -14,3 -14,1 -400,0 -350,0 -300,0 -250,0 -200,0 -150,0 -100,0 -50,0 0,0 China Japan Germany Mexico Ireland Viet Nam Italy Korea India Malaysia Thailand Canada France Taipei Switzerland Indonesia US Trade Deficits with 16 Main Import Sources (USD Billion) 12
  • 14. Results 1: Trump Trade Agenda (45 percent import tariff for China and 35 percent import tariff for Mexico) Short Run Long Run Change in GDP (%) 1 Indonesia 0.0 0.3 2 EU_25 0.0 0.1 3 Japan 0.0 0.1 4 USA -0.4 -0.7 5 China -0.5 -2.7 6 Mexico -0.8 -12.1 7 RestofASEAN 0.1 0.7 8 RestofASIA 0.0 0.2 9 RestofWorld 0.0 0.3 TOTAL WORLD 0.0 -0.2 Change in Welfare (EV) Total Welfare (World) -54000.3 -133807.1 SHORT RUN: • The Trade Agenda does not significantly effect the global economy nor Indonesian and Japanese economy in the short run. • Countries that will be worse-off in the short run from the trade agenda is USA, China and Mexico LONG RUN: The Trade agenda will create a worse-off to the global economy, as the world GDP will be declining and the total welfare loss of the global economy will be higher. 14
  • 15. 18,4% 81,0% 11,2% 20,2% China Mexico Indonesia Japan Share of Country’s Exports to USA Country Market Concentration Index (2015) China 0.07 Mexico 0.55 Indonesia 0.06 Japan 0.09 Results 1: Trump Trade Agenda (45 percent import tariff for China and 35 percent import tariff for Mexico) Mexico relies much on the US market for its exports. Around 81 percent of its exports are directed to US. The high dependency of Mexico on the US market has made it very vulnerable to any shock from the US economy 15
  • 16. Results 1: Trump Trade Agenda (45 percent import tariff for China and 35 percent import tariff for Mexico) Country Short Run Long Run Indonesia 298.2 49.0 Japan 3676.3 438.0 USA -2605.5 2626.8 China -16538.4 -5435.5 Mexico -4286.5 586.8 Countries Capital Stocks Terms of Trade Short Run Long Run Short Run Long Run 1 Indonesia 0 0.6 0.4 0.3 3 Japan 0 0.3 0.7 0.8 4 USA 0 -1.1 1.8 1.7 5 China 0 -4.8 -3.3 -3.1 6 Mexico 0 -20.3 -13.7 -12.7 • Eventhough, US trade balance is positive in the long run (but not in the short run), but Trump’s trade agenda will definitely hurt the economy of China, Mexico, and USA in the long-run • Again, Mexico will suffer most from the trade agenda in the long run Change in Trade Balance of Some Countries in Short Run and Long Run Percentage Change of Capital Stock in Each Country in the Long Run For Indonesia and Japan, the market opportunities created from trade diversion and trade creation effects can generate a capital accumulation in the long run, and provide a positive growth of the long run. 16
  • 17. Result 2: Trade Hit List (15 percent import tariff for countries in the trade hit list) • The trade hit list agenda will not give any significant effect to the global GDP in the short run, including Indonesia and Japan • However, the trade hit list agenda will disadvantage the global economy and all countries in the trade hit list for the long run. Country Short Run Long Run GDP Invest ment GDP Capital Stock 1 Indonesia 0.0 -0.5 -0.6 -1.2 2 Germany 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -1.1 3 Japan 0.0 -0.4 -0.4 -0.9 4 USA -0.2 -0.5 -0.7 -2.0 5 China -0.1 -0.7 -0.9 -1.8 6 Mexico -0.3 -0.4 -5.5 -9.5 7 Ireland -0.3 -0.6 -2.4 -3.8 18 RestofWorld 0.0 -0.5 0.1 0.2 Total World 0.0 -0.5 -0.5 -1.2 When Indonesia and Japan get trade restriction from the US, its export to US will decline. This will be transmitted to the Indonesian and Japan economy through trade channel, affecting private demand to go down. When private demand goes down, it will affect imports to decline and the industrial outputs will also be affected. 17
  • 18. Impact of Trade War 18 WTO Study suggests that Trade Wars will cause : Worst scenario, in 2020: * Decrease from the baseline projection World GDP 2%* 17%*Global Trade This is similar to the finansial crisis condition in 2009: World GDP 2% 12%Global Trade 1. Unuseful international tariff aggreement 2. Every country will apply unilateral tariff Sumber : https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/pres19_e/pr837_e.pdf
  • 19. 19 Impact of Trade War Increasing of global uncertainties U.S.-China tariffs, that have been both implemented and proposed, could cut global economic output by 0.5% in 2020 Taxing all trade between the world’s two largest economies would cause some $455 billion in gross domestic product to evaporate International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde:
  • 21. Trade Channels to Growth Trade Channel 1: Capital accummulation Channel 2: Innovation Incentives (market size, competition, and knowledge spillovers) Channel 3: Institutional Framework Growth Source: WTO (modified by Author) 21
  • 22. 22 Trade of Electronic Goods is exposed to a deep Global Supply Chain: Trum untuk produk elektronik akan mengganggu ekspor elektronik global Vietnam China USA 16,3% 13,2% USD 13,0 M USD 10,5 M 16,8% USD 93,2 M Trade Pattern of Electronic Goods (HS 85), 2016 Indonesia Singapore 19,1% USD 1,6 M 15,1% USD 1,2 M 16,5% USD 18,9 M 6,3% USD 7,3 M Thailand 17,4 % USD 5,2 M 9,7 % USD 2,9 M Malaysia 17,8% USD 10,4 M 15,0% USD 8,7 M 15,9% USD 9,3 M China is the hub of electronics trade in the global market Sumber: TradeMap, diolah
  • 23. 23 What is in reality? Mexico dan Vietnam are gaining … Mexico and Vietnam is now preferred by the investors Trade diversion are from China to Mexico
  • 24. 24 Trade Diversion to Vietnam… ….due to its competitive advantages …. Vietnamese products can substitute Chinese products
  • 25. What is important? The new trade agenda – represented by Trade Trump Agenda and Trade Hit List Agenda -- will create disadvantages to global economy in general, as well as to Indonesian and Japanese economy. The new trade agenda will be transmitted to other countries economy through trade channels. 25 Indonesia: 1. Indonesia should focus on attracting more investment to induce capital accumulation in the long term, as the simulation results show that capital accumulation can support the long term growth and mitigate the global risks. 2. Furthermore, increasing total factor productivity can be another focus of Indonesia, such as: intensifying infrastructure development, enhancing regulatory efficiencies in particular for businesses, as well as focusing on re-industrialization.
  • 26. Policy Recommendation 26 Regional: 1. Regional cooperation is the key to reduce the risks of Trade War to the regional economy. ASEAN and RCEP will be a good vehicle to enhance cooperation for minimizing the global risks. 2. Policy coherence in regional economy is a must. A country cannot be asked to liberalize the markets, while the other countries are having inward-looking policies. 3. Modified regional value chains that is inline with the technology advancement. The trend of on-shoring has limited the development of regional value chains.
  • 27. IMPORTANT NOTE Long-run anticipative policies is important to reduce the risks from the VUCA world It’s better to prepare than to cure it 27
  • 29. Indonesia’s becoming more competitive 29 2018 2019 32 44 2017 2018 45/140 47/135 • Indonesia is ranked 45th among 140 countries, up 2 places from 2017 • Its excels in macroeconomic stability, market size and business dynamics indicator among East Asia and Pacific region • Indonesia is ranked 32nd among 63 countries, up 11 places from 2018 • This accomplishment notably due to improvements in: • Government efficiency • Infrastructure • Business conditions The Global Competitiveness Index (WEF) IMD World Competitiveness Ranking (IMD)
  • 30. Indonesia Regulatory on FDI Has Become Less Restrictive 30 FDI restrictiveness is an index gauging the restrictiveness of a country’s foreign direct investment (FDI) rules by looking at four main types of restrictions: foreign equity restrictions; discriminatory screening or approval mechanisms; restrictions on key foreign personnel and operational restrictions. FDI Regulatory Index 2018 Sectors Indonesia OECD Average Media 0,798 0,154 Business Services 0,579 0,063 Primary Sector 0,457 0,095 Transportation 0,426 0,210 Distribution (Trade) 0,365 0,018 Telecommunications 0,260 0,083 Financial Services 0,167 0,032 Electricity 0,107 0,116 Manufacturing 0,065 0,018 Overall 0,313 0,065 0,331 0,371 0,417 0,445 0,459 Indonesia Vietnam Phillipines Malaysia China (Ppl Rep.of) 2006 0,321 0,417 0,422 0,442 0,447 Indonesia Phillipines China (Ppl Rep.of) Myanmar Saudi Arabia 2013 0,252 0,257 0,313 0,372 0,374 Malaysia Rusia Indonesia Saudi Arabia Phillipines 2018 FDI Regulatory Restrictiveness Index (FDI Index) Source : OECD 5 5 3 0 = closed 1 = open Indonesia’s rules on foreign direct investment become less restrictive compared to the past 5 years and its rank on FDI Restrictiveness index climb up from 5 to 3 Almost all the sectors in Indonesia are more open to FDI compared to OECD’s countries average with Media being the most open one
  • 31. Indonesia’s economy still believed to remain robust by international community amid the weakening global economy tension, as reflected from its sovereign rating 31 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 S&P Moody's Fitch BB-/Ba3 BB/Ba2 BB+/Ba1 BBB-/Baa3 BBB/Baa2 Indonesia Foreign Currency Long Term Debt Rating Investment grade rating BBB BBB Moody’s (13 April 2018) An increasingly credible and effective policy framework conducive to macroeconomic stability together with a build-up of financial buffers, prudent fiscal and monetary policy Standard and Poor’s (31 May 2019) S&P had raised Indonesia’s sovereign credit rating to ‘BBB’ citing the country’s strong economic growth prospects and supportive policy dynamics BBB Japan Credit Rating Agency (26 April 2019) JCRA revised its outlook and highlighted factors of the changes from the government of Indonesia, namely: 1. formulated and promoted large scale infrastructure development plan to eliminate infrastructure shortage 2. Succeeded in expanding infrastructure and human capital expenditures, 3. the possibility of an enhanced economic growth through continued reform initiatives BBB Moody’s (14 March 2019) Fitch Ratings released Indonesia's debt rating remained in BBB position with a stable outlook
  • 32. Indonesia are Viewed as a Promising Overseas Business Prospect 32 Source : JBIC Indonesia’s Top Reasons as a Promising Countries : 1. Future growth of potential local market 2. Current size of local market 3. Inexpensive source of labor 4. Supply base for assemblers 5. Concentration of Industry China India Thailand Indonesia 1 2 3 4 5 Vietnam Promising Countries/Regions over the Medium Terms Survey Report on Overseas Business Operations 2018 published by Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC), ranked Indonesia as the 5th most promising country over the medium term The survey conducted in order to research and analyze the current status and future prospects for the overseas business development of the Japanese manufacturing industry
  • 34. Indonesia Continues to Relax the Negative Investment List 34 Relaxation on Foreign Investment’s Share (Become 100% since 2016) 2014’s DNI • Cold Storage (33%) • Sport Center (49%) • Film production Lab (49%) • Crumb Rubber (49%) • Restaurant (51%) • Medicinal raw material (85%) • Toll Road Business (95%) • Establishment of Telecommunication Equipment Testing Institutions (95%) Removal of Recommendation • Hotels (Non-Stars, One-Star, Two- Stars) • Motel; Recreation, • Arts and Entertainment Business; • Billiards, • Bowling and Golf Courses. Opening 20 Business Fields for Foreigners • Health support services (67 %) • Transportation of people by land (49%); • The film industry including film circulation (100%)) • Installation of high/extra high power utilization (49%))
  • 35. Tax Holiday • Reduction of corporate income tax by 100% • Minimum investment: IDR 100 Billion, but only get 50% reduction • Up to 20 tax years • 18 pioneer industries • Can be harmonized with the implementation of Online Single Submission (OSS) Indonesia Provides Various Incentives for Investment 35 Fiscal Incentives As of 2016, 324 regulations have been revoked while 75 have been revised Reducing Regulatory and Licensing Burden Establishment of SEZs throughout Indonesia to reduce the logistics cost and facilitate trade Improvement in Infrastructure (Electricity, Transportation, Trade, and Other Logistics) Indonesia provides a one-stop licensing service through Pusat Pelayanan Terpadu Satu Pintu Firms investing IDR 100 billion can obtain a business permit/license within 3 hours Online Single Submission (OSS) business licensing system further improves the electronic system of registration and licensing The government has expedited land acquisition and certification Improvement in access to electricity in the country, especially for industries that rely on heavy machinery and steady supply of electricity The PLB has facilitated trade while generating much needed revenue Tax Allowance • A net income reduction of 30% • Accelerated depreciation and amortization • imposition of income tax on dividends to foreign taxpayers by 10% • Compensation for losses that are longer than 5 years but not more than 10 years
  • 36. Indonesia’s Ranking in the World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business Index 36 135 123 122 115 126 129 128 120 120 106 91 72 73 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Notes: Lower values indicate a higher ranking. Yearly rankings may not be comparable due to changes in the survey's methodology, except for the period 2015–2018 when the rankings used the same methodology. Source: World Bank (2019). Given these incentives, Indonesia has also moved up in the World Bank’s ease of doing business ranking
  • 40. 5 – 10 years Indonesia Provides Many Incentives for Investment 40 Fiscal Incentives Tax Holiday PMK 130/2011 Reduction of corporate income tax by 100% PMK 159/2015 Reduction of corporate income tax by 10%-100% PMK 35/2018 Reduction of corporate income tax by 100% Regulation Facility Time Period 5- 15 tax years, or up to 20 tax years with the discretion of minister of finance Investment value: • IDR 500 billion up to IDR 1 Trillion ( 5 tax years) • IDR 1 Trillion up to IDR 5 Trillion (7 tax years) • IDR 5 Trillion up to IDR 15 Trillion (10 tax years) • IDR 15 Trillion up to IDR 30 Trillion ( 15 tax years) • ≥ IDR 30 Trillion (20 tax years) Additional time period Additional reduction in corporate income tax by 50% for the next 2 years Additional reduction in corporate income tax by 50% for the next 2 years 5 industries IDR 1 Trillion IDR 1 Trillion (except communication industry, IDR 500 Billion) IDR 500 BillionMinimum Investment Pioneer Industries Coverage 8 industries 17 industries PMK 150/2018 (NEW) Reduction of corporate income tax by 100% Investment value: • IDR 100 billion up to IDR 500 billion (5 tax years, 50% reduction) • IDR 500 billion up to IDR 1 Trillion ( 5 tax years) • IDR 1 Trillion up to IDR 5 Trillion (7 tax years) • IDR 5 Trillion up to IDR 15 Trillion (10 tax years) • IDR 15 Trillion up to IDR 30 Trillion ( 15 tax years) • ≥ IDR 30 Trillion (20 tax years) Additional reduction in corporate income tax by 50% for the next 2 years IDR 500 Billion 18 industries -> adding more industries Facility Time Period Additional time period • Expansion of the business sector that can be given tax holiday facilities become 18 pioneer industries or 169 KBLI (ISIC) • Minimum investment to get tax holiday: IDR 500 billion
  • 42. Indonesia Provides Many Incentives for Investment 42 Reducing Regulatory and Licensing Burden First reform package—aimed at reducing regulatory and licensing burden and at improving Indonesia’s competitiveness—reflects the priorities of the new administration when it took office. Indeed, President Jokowi ordered a 50% reduction in regulations by 2019, which directly impacted about 20 ministries and implementing agencies. The simplification of regulations focused on a few key principles • Make it easier to register and obtain a license to operate a business improve public services to help businesses • Provide legal certainty • Accelerate dispute resolution processes • Introduce new regulations to reflect the changing realities of operating a business in Indonesia As of 2016, 324 regulations have been revoked while 75 have been revised • The PTSP Pusat, inaugurated at BKPM on 26 January 2015, endeavors to make business registration and licensing more efficient and accessible to businesses. • The service center covers all licensing and non-licensing services of the government and regional governments, and accommodates integration between institutions and regions, thereby making the licensing process easier and eliminating the problem of fragmented standards for each region. Indonesia provides a one-stop licensing service through Pusat Pelayanan Terpadu Satu Pintu • As part of the introduction of PTSP Pusat, investors with a minimum investment of IDR 100 billion or a workforce of more than 1,000 people can obtain their initial permits within 3 hours and start their business activities shortly afterward. • The 3-hour service is given to companies that have already obtained a license and want to expand capacity. • BKPM also serves companies that supply raw materials to core companies that get the 3-hour service. Firms investing IDR 100 billion can obtain a business permit/license within 3 hours • Facilitates business licensing through an integrated electronic system that synchronizes various licensing permits in the country. • Expected to further simplify the process of obtaining business permits as several key permits (location, environmental, and building permits) can be obtained an hour after submitting all required data in the OSS. Online Single Submission (OSS) business licensing system further improves the electronic system of registration and licensing The government has embarked on innovations such as adding working days and time to facilitate the process of land registration and certification, opening more outlets to provide registration and certification services, and introducing electronic registration systems. The government has expedited land acquisition and certification
  • 43. Indonesia Provides Many Incentives for Investment 43 Improving Infrastructure—Electricity, Transport, Trade, and Other Logistics First reform package—aimed at reducing regulatory and licensing burden and at improving Indonesia’s competitiveness—reflects the priorities of the new administration when it took office. Indeed, President Jokowi ordered a 50% reduction in regulations by 2019, which directly impacted about 20 ministries and implementing agencies. The simplification of regulations focused on a few key principles • Make it easier to register and obtain a license to operate a business improve public services to help businesses • Provide legal certainty • Accelerate dispute resolution processes • Introduce new regulations to reflect the changing realities of operating a business in Indonesia Establishment of SEZs throughout Indonesia to reduce the logistics cost and facilitate trade • The installed electricity capacity in Indonesia reached 53 gigawatts in 2015, with sold energy reaching 220 terawatt-hours. The current electrification ratio is 95.4% and is expected to increase to 99% by 2019. • Electricity consumed between 23:00 and 08:00 is supplied at a discount of up to 30%. The government also provides deferment and discounts for firms that face cash flow difficulties to pay for electricity consumption. Improvement in access to electricity in the country, especially for industries that rely on heavy machinery and steady supply of electricity • In April 2017, the value of goods stored in the PLB warehouse was recorded at IDR 1.16 trillion from 20 international suppliers, 34 international distributors, and 97 local distribution companies. • Contributed to state revenues with an import duty amounting to IDR 10.28 billion, Article 22 import tax amounting to IDR 27.13 billion, and import VAT of IDR 120.09 billion. • The average lead time to import of 1.8 days was much faster than normal for imports in general. • Decreasing dwell time (idle time when goods stay in the port) by transferring several activities in the preclearance and custom clearance stages from the port to PLB. The PLB has facilitated trade while generating much needed revenue