Ir H Heri Akhmadi's presentation on High Level Seminar Project 2045
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- The maximum votes for Islamic parties in elections was 38.35% in 2004, for Nationalist parties it was 33.8% in 1999, and for Developmentalist parties it was 50.2% in 2009. - In future elections, government formation will likely depend on pragmatic coalitions. Indonesian politics will also still be characterized by oligarchy, cartel politics, and political dynasties. - Regime sustainability will balance strong political support with consistent, effective development policies. Strong political parties or coalitions are also needed, as well as nurturing sustainable democracy through political and economic participation.
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Ir H Heri Akhmadi's presentation on High Level Seminar Project 2045
- 1. Ir H Heri Akhmadi Head of Research and Development Agency of Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP) Symposium 1: to uphold democracy and become maritime global powers High Level Seminar Project 2045 ‘The Path to Peaceful and Prosperous Indonesia and Japan 2045’ Sunday, 9 December 2018
- 2. Democratic Consolidation & Political Stability Democratic Consolidation : • Electorate Changes & Continuity : party vs figure ; program vs money politics • Trend : Oligarchy, Cartel, Dinasty • Party Consolidation : number of parties vs low party ID; high swing voters /floating mass • Disruption : traditional voters vs (digital) millennial voters ; identity vs ideology Political Stabilty : • Split Goverment : President vs Parliament – etc • Regime Sustainabity Related to long-term policy consistency • Multi-party system with no dominant party : coalition based government • Pragmatic coalition : Figure (image), identity (narration), mobilization (money) vs party (ideology), vision (Program), organization (participation) • The role of independent technocrats in maintaining coherent & consistent policies.
- 3. INDONESIA & JAPAN POLITICAL SYSTEM Political System INDONESIA JAPAN State Form Republic Constitutional Monarchy Democratic System Multi-party (quasi) Bicameral Parliament, Presidential System Multi-party Bicameral Parliamentary Representative Head of State & Government President Emperor , Prime Minister Major Political Parties PDIP, Golkar, Gerindra, Demokrat, PKB, PPP, PAN, PKS LDP, DJP, JCP, JIP, NKP Legislative Elections Every 5 years for DPR, DPD, DPRD 4 years for Lower House, 3 years Upper House (divide by two) Executive Elections Every 5 years for President and Governor; Head of District, Mayor (simultaneously) PM elected by Parliament. Every 4 year for Governor & Mayor (not simultaneously).
- 4. Electorate : Votes of 1955, 1971, 1992 & 1999 Elections ELECTION 1955 ELECTION 1971 ELECTION 1992 ELECTION 1999 PARTY Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % PNI/PDI/PDI-P 8.434.653 22,3 2 3.793.266 6.93 14.565.556 14,89 35.689.073 33.74 IPKI 541.306 1,43 338.403 0,61 328.654 0,31 Parkindo/PDKB 1.003.326 2,66 733.359 1,34 550.845 0,52 P Katolik 770.740 2,04 603.740 1,10 NU / PPP 6.955.141 18,4 1 10.213.650 18.68 16.624.647 15,96 11.329.905 10,71 PKB 13.336.982 12,61 Masyumi/ PMI / PBB 7.903.886 20,9 2 2.930.746 5.36 2.049.708 1,94 PAN 7.528.956 7,12 PK / PKS 1.436.565 1,36 PSII 1.091.160 2,89 1.208.237 2,89 PERTI 483.014 1,28 381.309 0,69 PSI 753.191 1,99 - - PKI 6.179.914 16,3 6 - -
- 5. PARTY 1999 2004 2009 2014 VOTES % VOTES % VOTES % VOTES % PDI-P 35.689.073 33,8% 21.026.629 18,5% 14.600.091 14,0% 23.681.471 18,9% Golkar 23.741.749 22,5% 24.480.757 21,6% 15.037.757 14,4% 18.432.312 14,7% Demokrat 8.455.225 7,5% 21.703.137 20,8% 12.728.913 10,2% GERINDRA 4.646.406 4,5% 14.760.371 11,8% HANURA 3.922.870 3,8% 6.579.498 5,3% NASDEM 8.402.812 6,7% PKB 13.336.982 12,6% 11.989.564 10,6% 5.533.214 5,3% 11.298.957 9,0% PAN 7.528.956 7,1% 7.303.324 6,4% 6.254.580 6,0% 9.481.621 7,6% PKS 1.436.565 1,4% 8.325.020 7,3% 8.206.955 7,9% 8.480.204 6,8% PPP 11.329.905 10,7% 9.248.764 8,2% 5.146.122 4,9% 8.157.488 6,5% Other * 12.667.880 12,0% 22.633.131 19,9% 19.048.653 18,3% 2.968.844 2,4% VALID VOTES 105.731.110 100% 113.462.414 100% 104.099.785 100% 124.972.491 100% Votes of the 1999 to 2014 Elections
- 6. Indonesia: the lowest in Asia 77.7 22.3 0 20 40 60 80 100 TIDAK ADA ADA 1.3 1.3 3.0 3.0 3.7 5.6 6.3 6.6 10.0 21.6 37.5 0 10 20 30 40 50 Lainnya Hanura Nasdem PKS PAN PPP PKB Demokrat Gerindra Golkar PDI Perjuangan PARTY ID
- 7. 33,8% 50,2% 38,35% Islamic Parties Developmentalist Parties Nationalist Parties 0% - 8% 0% - 12% SUMMARY OF 1999, 2004, 2009 & 2014 ELECTION Maximum votes: Islamic Parties : 38,35% (2004) Nationalist Parties : 33,8% (1999) Developmentalist (Kekaryaan) Parties : 50,2% (2009)
- 8. PDI-P 18,95% 1 PARTY 18,95% PDIP PELOPOR PNBKI PPRN PPIB PNIM PDP PPDI PRN PDS PATRIOT PKDI BURUH 2009 ELECTION 14.0% 0.3% 0.5% 1.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.9% 0.1% 0.6% 1.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 13 PARTIES 20,7% PDI FAMILY (Nationalist Parties) ELECTABILITY 2014 ELECTION PDIP PDS PNBK PNIM PELOPOR PPDI PBSD 18,53% 2,13% 1,08% 0,81% 0,77% 0,75% 0,56% 2004 ELECTION 7 PARTIES 24,63% PDI-P 22,9% 1 PARTY 22,9% SEPT 2018 SURVEY
- 9. GOLKAR DEMOKRAT GERINDRA HANURA PKPI PSI PKPB PPPI BARNAS KEDAULATAN PPD PPI PKP PDK MERDEKA PIS 2009 ELECTION 14.4% 20.8% 4.5% 3.8% 0.9% 0.1% 1.4% 0.7% 0.7% 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.3% 16 PARTIES 50,2% GOLKAR DEMOKRAT GERINDRA HANURA PKPI NASDEM 6 PARTIES 14,75% 10,19% 11,81% 5,26% 0,91% 6,72% 49,65% 2014 ELECTION GOLKAR FAMILY ( Developmentalist Parties) ELECTABILITY GOLKAR DEMOKRAT PKPB PKPI PPDK Patriot Pancasila Merdeka PSI PPIB PPD 21,58% 7,45% 2,11% 1,26% 1,16% 0,95% 0,74% 0,60% 0,59% 0,58% 2004 ELECTION 11 PARTIES 37,02% GOLKAR GERINDRA DEMOKRAT NASDEM PERINDO HANURA PKPI PSI 8 PARTIES 11,4% 10,7% 6,8% 3,4% 2,5% 0,8 - 0,2% 35,7% SEPT 2018 SURVEY
- 10. PKS PAN PPP PKB PBB PMB PBR PKNU PPNUI 2009 ELECTION 7,9% 6,0% 5,3% 4,9% 1,8% 0,4% 1,2% 1,5% 0,1% 9 Parties 29,2% PKB PAN PKS PPP PBB 5 Parties 9,04% 7,59% 6,79% 6,53% 1,46% 31,40% 2014 ELECTION TREND OF “ISLAMIC PARTIES” ELECTABILITY PKB PPP PKS PAN PBB PBR PPNUI 10,57% 8,15% 7,34% 6,44% 2,62% 2,44% 0,79% 2004 ELECTION 7 Parties 38,35% PKB PAN PKS PPP PBB 5 Parties 6,2% 2,0% 4,0% 3,7% 0,2% 16,1% SEPT 2018 SURVEY
- 12. Closing Notes : 1. Government formation will heavily depend on pragmatic coalition. 2. Indonesian political lanscape will still be characterized by the existence of oligarchy, cartel & dynastic politics in the next decade. 3. Regime sustainability will depend on the delicated balance of strong & stabil political supports vis a vis smart & sound development policies. 4. Need to nurture strong parties or party coalition 5. Need to formulate ‘sustainable’ democracy for Indonesia, by balancing political & economic democracy Terima Kasih